Photo: Thomas Hanses (EBU)

After two long years, Eurovision came back to our screens on Tuesday for an exciting semi-final. With the second semi-final tonight, there’s much more excitement still to come. Will there be any shock qualifiers or non-qualifiers? Will we finally find a clear favourite after tonight? Here are the latest odds from Smarkets

All betting odds, or prices, can be converted into an implied chance (%) of something happening and this is how we convey odds (for example 3/1 = 25% implied probability).

Eurovision 2021: Semi-Final 2 odds to qualify after the jury final

The qualification odds for this semi-final are far more polarised than the first semi-final, perhaps making it slightly easier to predict. There are five fairly safe qualifiers according to the market: Switzerland and Bulgaria both at 98%, Iceland at 97%, Greece at 95% and Finland at 94%. The Icelandic delegation will be pleased to hear that their forced withdrawal from live performances due to coronavirus has not affected their qualification chances.

Following this group are three likely qualifiers with San Marino at 89%, Portugal at 82% and Serbia at 79%. All three of these countries have seen their qualification chances climb since the second rehearsals, with San Marino up by a massive 19 percentage points after the confirmation that Flo Rida would be appearing live alongside Senhit.

In ninth place is Albania, who are leaning towards qualification at 67%, followed by Austria (53%) and Moldova (43%) on the qualification border. Austria and Moldova swapped places in the odds following last night’s jury show, where Moldova’s Natalia Gordienko appeared to give a shaky vocal performance.

Denmark and Estonia are next at 32% and 23%, respectively (both of these entries have fallen by double figures since the end of rehearsals). At the bottom of the market are two likely non-qualifiers — Latvia (19%) and Czech Republic (17%) — followed by Georgia and Poland at rock bottom with just a 7% qualification chance each.

Winner

Switzerland have surged back to the top of the semi-final winner market after last night’s jury show with a 42% chance, followed by Bulgaria at 17% and Iceland at 14%. Switzerland’s sharp rise has also happened in the outright winner market, with Gjon’s Tears’ chances of winning the contest on Saturday jumping from 5% to 11% in just 24 hours. As an early Switzerland backer, that’s music to my ears.

Televote winner

In the televote winner market, Iceland lead the field at a 32% chance, followed by Switzerland at 20%, with Greece rounding out the top three at 10%. Given Greece’s imperfect use of a green screen for their performance and early position in the running order, 10% seems too high to me.

Jury winner

Prior to last night’s jury show, Bulgaria and Switzerland were neck-and-neck at the top on 35% and 34% respectively, with Iceland way behind in third on 9%. However, given Switzerland’s rise across our other markets since last night, their chances of winning the jury vote will no doubt be higher than 35% by now.

Check out all of Smarkets’ Eurovision odds here

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Nayhan
Nayhan
4 months ago

12 points to Switzerland from Ireland

Cassandra
Cassandra
4 months ago
Reply to  Nayhan

Thank you!!
My 12 points go to Ireland.
Beside Tout l’Univers my favorite song is Maps and I’m still devastated that Lesley didn’t qualify.
Greetings from Switzerland <3

Caroline
Caroline
4 months ago

Portugal is efinitely the dark horse of the competition. A class act with a classy tune. Good luck to Black Mamba.

Tarleton
Tarleton
4 months ago

Bullgarias got next to no chance of winning tonight

Colin
Colin
4 months ago

Predicted qualifiers (after the semi):

– Switzerland
– Bulgaria
– Iceland
– Greece
– Finland
– Portugal
– San Marino
– Serbia
– Denmark
– Albania

I would be so happy if even one among Czech Republic, Poland or Moldova makes it, but I’m not holding my breath. Surprisingly, out of three, Rafal’s performance was the best one. 🙂

Last edited 4 months ago by Colin
Purple Mask
Purple Mask
4 months ago
Reply to  Colin

Ooo we are agreed on 9 out of 10. 🙂

Colin
Colin
4 months ago
Reply to  Purple Mask

Yeah, I think that Austria will come 11th or 12th. Juries will put it in for sure, but I assume that televote will eliminate it. But Vincent did one of the best vocal performances of the night.

Sot
Sot
4 months ago

Every San Marino qualification has an iconic reaction too so I can’t wait to see Senhit’s reaction

Sot
Sot
4 months ago

Ok just wanna say real quick BENNY IS IN

Sot
Sot
4 months ago
Reply to  Sot

Well that comment aged like milk

Trocatroc
Trocatroc
4 months ago

Don’t know why but I’m finding it so adorable seeing Flo Rida waving the SM flag, he has no idea what’s going on lmao

Purple Mask
Purple Mask
4 months ago

My personal rankings after performance (first to 10th):
Switzerland, San Marino, Iceland, Serbia, Portugal, Albania, Greece, Finland, Bulgaria, Austria.

Non Qs: Moldova, Czech Republic, Latvia, Estonia, Denmark, Poland, Georgia.

Jo.
Jo.
4 months ago
Reply to  Purple Mask

Mine too, and also the bookies’. Somehow it feels like that is the obvious top 10, after tonight’s performances, even tho I really want Benny to qualify.

Vytautas
Vytautas
4 months ago
Reply to  Purple Mask

I agree with the list of qualifiers except for Austria. I think it will be Denmark instead of Austria.

Giolo
Giolo
4 months ago
Reply to  Purple Mask

Prediction: 9 of your 10 qualifiers will go through. Denmark instead of Albania (unfortunately)

Vytautas
Vytautas
4 months ago

Portugal just entered the TOP10 and is 9th to win the whole contest. I mean, The Black Mamba was good but not THAT good. I see the bookies are going crazy this year – they don’t know which basket they should put their eggs into. It’s all 2011 again, love it!

Jo.
Jo.
4 months ago
Reply to  Vytautas

Portugal is amazing, specially the rocky part in the end.

Vytautas
Vytautas
4 months ago
Reply to  Jo.

As I said, they were good but they were definitely not the best. Okay, so Portugal now is 8th. This is becoming fun as if Sobral 1.5 can win with just a few year gap.

Last edited 4 months ago by Vytautas
Purple Mask
Purple Mask
4 months ago
Reply to  Vytautas

I enjoyed that performance. It was much better than I had expected. Well done to The Black Mamba

Jo.
Jo.
4 months ago

Chantal is the best of the hosts, IMO.

Jo.
Jo.
4 months ago
Reply to  Jo.

plus I find this whole Flo Rida thing so random ^^

Last edited 4 months ago by Jo.
rhin
rhin
4 months ago

After this performance not so sure :/

Jo.
Jo.
4 months ago

Switzerland is winning this SF

Purple Mask
Purple Mask
4 months ago
Reply to  Jo.

Yep. I’m voting for Switzerland and San Marino. 🙂

Jo.
Jo.
4 months ago
Reply to  Purple Mask

Iceland is super strong too. I thought Bulgaria was winning this, but it isn’t “that” strong…

Purple Mask
Purple Mask
4 months ago
Reply to  Jo.

I agree. Bulgaria fell flat with me too. I feel sad for Victoria because she’s a great artist. But the staging was too flat.

Purple Mask
Purple Mask
4 months ago

Oh wow, Gjon’s Tears live voice is exquisite and astonishing! That’s the only one to move me this evening.

Hello hi
Hello hi
4 months ago

Lots of downvotes for this statement but Greece did not sound good or Moldova

Purple Mask
Purple Mask
4 months ago
Reply to  Hello hi

No it’s fine. They sounded like they had perhaps over-sung in rehearsals. Or, it could have been the sound mix.

Purple Mask
Purple Mask
4 months ago

Albania’s Anxhela just took “solo vocalist performance” to a whole new level. Three minutes all by herself. A wonderful performance, bravo.

Purple Mask
Purple Mask
4 months ago

So far I liked San Marino, Iceland and Serbia the best. Also Austria’s Vincent sang really well.

Ted
Ted
4 months ago

7 songs into the live semi final, why is it only Austria and Flo rida have been the only two so far that have sang in tune

Purple Mask
Purple Mask
4 months ago
Reply to  Ted

Too much adrenaline.

Héctor
Héctor
4 months ago

My ultimate prediction for this night (the chance I think they have in percentage): SWITZERLAND – 100% () BULGARIA – 100% (+) ICELAND – 90% () GREECE – 85% () FINLAND – 75% (-) SERBIA – 75% (+) SAN MARINO – 75%() PORTUGAL – 60% (++) ALBANIA – 50% (++) AUSTRIA – 50% (++) ————————— CZECH REPUBLIC – 50% (-) MOLDOVA – 45% (-) LATVIA – 45% (-) DENMARK – 30% (+) ESTONIA – 25% (+) POLAND – 10% () GEORGIA – 0% () Yeah I know. It is really very similar to what th odds say ut I have… Read more »

FFF
FFF
4 months ago

This is harder to predict, but here it goes:

Finland, Swizerland, Greece, Iceland, Bulgaria, Denmark, San Marino, Portugal, Serbia and Moldova

EscIL
EscIL
4 months ago
Reply to  FFF

I think that the Czech Republic will make it!

Mark Dowd
Mark Dowd
4 months ago

Apart from the flawless vocal last night, I think the huge roar from the crowd made a massive impression when Switzerland finished performing. A rise from 16-1 to 6-1 within 24 hours is quite remarkable…..and after another great showing tonight, he will most likely be challenging Italy and Malta, having surpassed France.

Mishel
Mishel
4 months ago

I’m for Bulgaria and Greece

Sale
Sale
4 months ago

Switzerland is about to pass France in the odds, like honestly I don’t see it coming top 3… top 5 maybe

Sale
Sale
4 months ago
Reply to  Sale

Switzerland is the one I don’t see in top 3 just to avoid confusion

Azaad
Azaad
4 months ago

Don’t know if it’s been said, but Albania voting tonight gives Gjon a fairly big advantage.

Stephanie
4 months ago

It’s going to be close between Switzerland and Bulgaria for the jury win. However, I do think Switzerland has the edge in the televote between the two of them

Last edited 4 months ago by Stephanie
Mark Dowd
Mark Dowd
4 months ago
Reply to  Stephanie

Totally. Bulgaria is not a natural crowd pleaser…

voix
voix
4 months ago

Switzerland is this year fan favorite which is gonna flop hard, the stage presence is distracting to say the least

Henry
Henry
4 months ago
Reply to  voix

We shall see…

Sot
Sot
4 months ago
Reply to  voix

While the Maltese staging is AMAZING in your opinion..?

Darren
4 months ago

I still think Bulgaria is going to win this semi.
The song is so professional
Victoria is amazing
The song is more accessible being in English (yes I love when countries sing in their own language, but this song is just too good to ignore) no dodgy English lyrics, it actually makes sense.
Switzerland is awesome too by the way but I just think Victoria will clinch it.

1. Bulgaria
2. Switzerland
3. San Marino
4. Iceland

Hope everyone here who is voting tonight and everyone here who’s country is participating tonight the best of luck.

Last edited 4 months ago by Darren
Tarleton
Tarleton
4 months ago
Reply to  Darren

You’re going to be disappointed cos the song is bland and lacking a hook ; she’s dressed like she’s on her way to work somewhere
I bet it finishes about 8th in the grand final .!..if that

Darren
4 months ago
Reply to  Tarleton

We’ll see but I honestly think she’s going to deliver.

Sot
Sot
4 months ago
Reply to  Darren

I agree with everything you said but I still don’t think Bulgaria will have enough televote support… The average ESC viewer sees a song like Serbia and says “ooh sexy, fun, danceable, let’s vote for it!” and not sophisticate it so much…

sam
sam
4 months ago
Reply to  Sot

portugal won the televote in 2017 and ukraine and the netherlands placed 2nd in 2016 and 2019 respectively and none of those countries sent a sexy dance bop, so i think your assessment is wrong. just because the song is slower does not mean it has no televote potential

Sot
Sot
4 months ago
Reply to  sam

Well, turns out I was right

Anhel
Anhel
4 months ago

I’m sooo happy that Switzerland is back in fourth place in the odds. My qualifier predictions: 1. Switzerland / Gjon’s Tears – Tout l’Univers 2. Finland / Blind Channel – Dark Side 3. San Marino / Senhit – Adrenalina 4. Bulgaria / Victoria – Growing Up is Getting Old 5. Serbia / Hurricane – Loco Loco 6. Greece / Stefania – Last Dance 7. Iceland / Da?i Freyr og Gagnamagni? – 10 Years 8. Albania / Anxhela Peristeri – Karma 9. Denmark / Fyr og Flamme – Øve Os På Hinanden 10. Portugal / The Black Mamba – Love Is… Read more »

EscIL
EscIL
4 months ago
Reply to  Anhel

Albania, Denmark and Portugal- not sure!
Czech Republic, Austria and Estonia- Could surprise!
My favorite, Georgia, has no chance, unfortunately….
I wish that Iceland will be out………

Last edited 4 months ago by EscIL
Who am I?
Who am I?
4 months ago

1500 journalists in the press center voted for their favorites and this is the ranking from the 1500 journalists in the press for semi final 2:
1. Greece 2. Iceland 3. Switzerland 4. San Marino 5. Bulgaria 6. Finland 7. Serbia 8. Portugal 9. Albania 10. Moldova

Anke
Anke
4 months ago
Reply to  Who am I?

those are fans more than journalists

Sot
Sot
4 months ago
Reply to  Who am I?

Greece 1st!? What a pleasant surprise!

Tarleton
Tarleton
4 months ago

I bet that Denmark go through even though its like something from the 80-90s it’s corny, wholesom and typical vintage eurovision

Last edited 4 months ago by Tarleton
Darren
4 months ago
Reply to  Tarleton

If Denmark manage to go through alongside Norway and Sweden the other day, it will prove that the Nordics get rewarded no matter what they send.

Iceland and Finland are the only nordics that should qualify this year IMO

EscIL
EscIL
4 months ago
Reply to  Darren

Iceland is not “catchy” for those who will listen to it for the first time….

Sol
Sol
4 months ago
Reply to  EscIL

But perhaps their dance moves will be?

EscIL
EscIL
4 months ago
Reply to  Sol

Yes, maybe….but I hope that someone who called for boycotting the Eurovision in 2019 will not be there in 2021…

Sol
Sol
4 months ago
Reply to  Darren

And honestly, I feel like Finland and Iceland always have to earn their qualification. It’s never easy for them.

Nils
Nils
4 months ago
Reply to  Tarleton

I don’t see any way Denmark is going to qualify. The only two other countries in this semifinal that appreciate schlager are Austria and Switzerland. But I doubt that the particular age groups will be tuning in tonight.

Olov
Olov
4 months ago

Am I the only one still hoping that Czech Republic is able to qualify? I love that song!

Who am I?
Who am I?
4 months ago
Reply to  Olov

I also hope Czech Republic qualifies because it’s a great entry. But unfortunately coming before Greece does not help it…

Jo.
Jo.
4 months ago
Reply to  Who am I?

why? Greece isn’t all that people are saying…

Sot
Sot
4 months ago
Reply to  Olov

My hopes are crushed every day even more but I hope that they’ll pull through a move I personally call “Lithuania 2009” or “Lithuania 2011” or “Lithuania 2013” or almost “Lithuania 2019″…

Darren
4 months ago
Reply to  Olov

Definitely think they should get through.
Czech Republic has really been taking ESC seriously since they came back in 2015.
Benny is also great performer, full of energy and charisma.
The song is catchy and infectious too.
Definitely think Czech Republic should make it.

EscIL
EscIL
4 months ago
Reply to  Olov

I think that it will!

Azaad
Azaad
4 months ago
Reply to  Olov

To be honest I can see them qualifying unless the performance is a train wreck – it’s a good radio friendly song and Benny oozes charisma.

Tarleton
Tarleton
4 months ago

Up unill 2 days ago it was possible to bet on Gjon winning the second semi final @ 3-1 but now its shortened to 6-4… even at that short price it’s worth a bet cos he’s an obvious winner Just reason it out …he’s very likely to win the Jury vote and he’s very likely to beat Bulgaria in the TV vote … even if Iceland wins the TV vote they will be handicapped by the jury vote Even if Bulgaria won the Jury vote, they wouldn’t beat Switserland in the Televoting with such a flat song lacking a hook… Read more »

Last edited 4 months ago by Tarleton
Giolo
Giolo
4 months ago
Reply to  Tarleton

Don’t understimate Iceland power with the juries. I think Iceland odds are way too likely for such an obvious public winner. Dadi has an extremely jury-friendly package, more than people think.

Tarleton
Tarleton
4 months ago
Reply to  Giolo

I doubt it cos they have more sophisticated tastes than an act that a local high school could create … it’s a novelty act and any novelty act has little staying power and they are now a year old

Who am I?
Who am I?
4 months ago

Greece, Iceland, Switzerland, Bulgaria, San Marino, Finland are 100000000% making the final. Now for the rest of the countries let the hunger games begin and may the odds be in your favor.
I think Switzerland, Iceland and Greece in no particular order, will come top 3 in this semi.
Good luck to all the contestants!

Sot
Sot
4 months ago
Reply to  Who am I?

Serbia is also a sure Q but they’ll come 7th

Who am I?
Who am I?
4 months ago
Reply to  Sot

Yes I could see that!

Sot
Sot
4 months ago

A few hours before the semi I’m starting to worry about some SPECIFIC countries…

Those are Portugal, Denmark and Albania and all three grew on me SOOOO much recently but somehow I feel like they won’t qualify and I’m so sad to say that! Portugal is underrated every year, Denmark is too 80’s for televoters to love it and Albania’s staging isn’t the most powerful it could be… I’m afraid Moldova will be in and, as much as I like the song, they don’t deserve it.

Giolo
Giolo
4 months ago
Reply to  Sot

Portugal will qualify, you can relax about that. Portugal is to SF2 what Belgium was to SF1. The Black Mamba are kinda safe. I am also very worried for the other two and I am hoping somehow they manage to qualify with Austria. But I feel like one or two between Austria, Albania and Denmark may stay out 🙁

Nils
Nils
4 months ago
Reply to  Giolo

Couldn’t Bulgaria perhaps already be SF2’s Belgium?

I’ve been following the Portuguese odds with some curiosity: a few weeks ago everyone labelled the song as ‘boring’. Now suddenly everybody seems to dig it. I think they’ve also had a complete u-turn with regards to the bookies.

Personally, I remain skeptical. Could go either way for them.

Last edited 4 months ago by Nils
Azaad
Azaad
4 months ago
Reply to  Nils

From what I gather they’ve staged it really well.

Nils
Nils
4 months ago
Reply to  Azaad

Okay, now that I see it … Portugal’s staging IS strong. Actually the best I’ve Seen so far this year.

Ashton Schier
Ashton Schier
4 months ago

Portugal being so high in the odds continues to baffle me. if this manages to qualify and yet telemoveis didnt…….

Jofty
Jofty
4 months ago
Reply to  Ashton Schier

Me too. And I think Finland might be the Albina/Kate Ryan of SF2. Still gutted for Montaigne BTW.

Sot
Sot
4 months ago
Reply to  Jofty

Even the most basic and young Eurofan could identify Finland as a sure qualifier… Like, come on, Finland is a certain top5 for both juries AND televoters!

Jofty
Jofty
4 months ago
Reply to  Sot

In which case I will be recommending to my country to send a generic 80s metal track next year to avoid another non-qualification with a more adventurous song!

KuhKatz
KuhKatz
4 months ago
Reply to  Ashton Schier

First of all, I loved Telemoveis and Conan back in 2019, but the performance was more or less a car crash especially when you compare it to the FdC Final performance.

The Black Mamba on the other hand, have a song, that screams NQ, but from what I’ve seen and heard, they managed to lift it up through staging.

We’ll see if it works..

Giolo
Giolo
4 months ago
Reply to  Ashton Schier

As much as I love Telemoveis more, it’s just our personal taste. There’s no need to make a comparison with a totally different song genre.
The Black Mamba delivered and they are kinda safe qualufiers, as much as Hooverphonic were safe qualifiers in SF1 with a stronger act in a stronger semi. Portugal is always underrated by this community, I really believe that results will prove everybody wrong about this song.

Ashton Schier
Ashton Schier
4 months ago
Reply to  Giolo

I made a comparison because they are both from Portugal, I thought that was clear.

Giolo
Giolo
4 months ago
Reply to  Ashton Schier

Yes, it was clear, but it’s not like making a comparison between El Diablo and Set Me Free, that seems more logical, since they are both pop songs. Telemiveis and Love is on my side are like orange and pineapple (not pizza )

Last edited 4 months ago by Giolo
Ashton Schier
Ashton Schier
4 months ago
Reply to  Giolo

And?? My point was not in regards to genre. My point was that if Portugal could send an amazing song like Telemoveis and not qualify, they shouldn’t qualify with a far worse song like Love Is On My Side. It’s not that hard to understand.

pooky1001
pooky1001
4 months ago
Reply to  Ashton Schier

But it isnt a far worse song to people who like that kind of music, it has a much wider appeal to the viewing public than Telemoveis would ever have had.

Miss X
Miss X
4 months ago
Reply to  Ashton Schier

Portugal has a song with jury appeal, that is a fact. Plus, they are not amateurs, they are a professional band and that shines through. There is a market for this type of product which is not necessarily reflected on the taste of Eurovision fans.

Last edited 4 months ago by Miss X
pooky1001
pooky1001
4 months ago
Reply to  Ashton Schier

I dont really think its possible to make a comparison between the 2. Telemoveis is still one of my favourite eurovision entries but i think most people who loved it always knew it was going to be a either love it or hate it kind of song. It was always going to be a struggle to get the jury vote. Black Mamba however will most certainly appeal to the jury and to the viewing public who appreciate a more calming song. Plus they have Switzerland, France and the UK voting in this semi all with huge Portuguese communities and Spain… Read more »