After two long years, Eurovision came back to our screens on Tuesday for an exciting semi-final. With the second semi-final tonight, there’s much more excitement still to come. Will there be any shock qualifiers or non-qualifiers? Will we finally find a clear favourite after tonight? Here are the latest odds from Smarkets…
All betting odds, or prices, can be converted into an implied chance (%) of something happening and this is how we convey odds (for example 3/1 = 25% implied probability).
The qualification odds for this semi-final are far more polarised than the first semi-final, perhaps making it slightly easier to predict. There are five fairly safe qualifiers according to the market: Switzerland and Bulgaria both at 98%, Iceland at 97%, Greece at 95% and Finland at 94%. The Icelandic delegation will be pleased to hear that their forced withdrawal from live performances due to coronavirus has not affected their qualification chances.
Following this group are three likely qualifiers with San Marino at 89%, Portugal at 82% and Serbia at 79%. All three of these countries have seen their qualification chances climb since the second rehearsals, with San Marino up by a massive 19 percentage points after the confirmation that Flo Rida would be appearing live alongside Senhit.
In ninth place is Albania, who are leaning towards qualification at 67%, followed by Austria (53%) and Moldova (43%) on the qualification border. Austria and Moldova swapped places in the odds following last night’s jury show, where Moldova’s Natalia Gordienko appeared to give a shaky vocal performance.
Denmark and Estonia are next at 32% and 23%, respectively (both of these entries have fallen by double figures since the end of rehearsals). At the bottom of the market are two likely non-qualifiers — Latvia (19%) and Czech Republic (17%) — followed by Georgia and Poland at rock bottom with just a 7% qualification chance each.
Switzerland have surged back to the top of the semi-final winner market after last night’s jury show with a 42% chance, followed by Bulgaria at 17% and Iceland at 14%. Switzerland’s sharp rise has also happened in the outright winner market, with Gjon’s Tears’ chances of winning the contest on Saturday jumping from 5% to 11% in just 24 hours. As an early Switzerland backer, that’s music to my ears.
In the televote winner market, Iceland lead the field at a 32% chance, followed by Switzerland at 20%, with Greece rounding out the top three at 10%. Given Greece’s imperfect use of a green screen for their performance and early position in the running order, 10% seems too high to me.
Prior to last night’s jury show, Bulgaria and Switzerland were neck-and-neck at the top on 35% and 34% respectively, with Iceland way behind in third on 9%. However, given Switzerland’s rise across our other markets since last night, their chances of winning the jury vote will no doubt be higher than 35% by now.