After two long years, Eurovision came back to our screens on Tuesday for an exciting semi-final. With the second semi-final tonight, there’s much more excitement still to come. Will there be any shock qualifiers or non-qualifiers? Will we finally find a clear favourite after tonight? Here are the latest odds from Smarkets…
All betting odds, or prices, can be converted into an implied chance (%) of something happening and this is how we convey odds (for example 3/1 = 25% implied probability).
Eurovision 2021: Semi-Final 2 odds to qualify after the jury final
The qualification odds for this semi-final are far more polarised than the first semi-final, perhaps making it slightly easier to predict. There are five fairly safe qualifiers according to the market: Switzerland and Bulgaria both at 98%, Iceland at 97%, Greece at 95% and Finland at 94%. The Icelandic delegation will be pleased to hear that their forced withdrawal from live performances due to coronavirus has not affected their qualification chances.
Following this group are three likely qualifiers with San Marino at 89%, Portugal at 82% and Serbia at 79%. All three of these countries have seen their qualification chances climb since the second rehearsals, with San Marino up by a massive 19 percentage points after the confirmation that Flo Rida would be appearing live alongside Senhit.
In ninth place is Albania, who are leaning towards qualification at 67%, followed by Austria (53%) and Moldova (43%) on the qualification border. Austria and Moldova swapped places in the odds following last night’s jury show, where Moldova’s Natalia Gordienko appeared to give a shaky vocal performance.
Denmark and Estonia are next at 32% and 23%, respectively (both of these entries have fallen by double figures since the end of rehearsals). At the bottom of the market are two likely non-qualifiers — Latvia (19%) and Czech Republic (17%) — followed by Georgia and Poland at rock bottom with just a 7% qualification chance each.
Winner
Switzerland have surged back to the top of the semi-final winner market after last night’s jury show with a 42% chance, followed by Bulgaria at 17% and Iceland at 14%. Switzerland’s sharp rise has also happened in the outright winner market, with Gjon’s Tears’ chances of winning the contest on Saturday jumping from 5% to 11% in just 24 hours. As an early Switzerland backer, that’s music to my ears.
Televote winner
In the televote winner market, Iceland lead the field at a 32% chance, followed by Switzerland at 20%, with Greece rounding out the top three at 10%. Given Greece’s imperfect use of a green screen for their performance and early position in the running order, 10% seems too high to me.
Jury winner
Prior to last night’s jury show, Bulgaria and Switzerland were neck-and-neck at the top on 35% and 34% respectively, with Iceland way behind in third on 9%. However, given Switzerland’s rise across our other markets since last night, their chances of winning the jury vote will no doubt be higher than 35% by now.
12 points to Switzerland from Ireland
Thank you!!
My 12 points go to Ireland.
Beside Tout l’Univers my favorite song is Maps and I’m still devastated that Lesley didn’t qualify.
Greetings from Switzerland <3
Portugal is efinitely the dark horse of the competition. A class act with a classy tune. Good luck to Black Mamba.
Bullgarias got next to no chance of winning tonight
Predicted qualifiers (after the semi):
– Switzerland
– Bulgaria
– Iceland
– Greece
– Finland
– Portugal
– San Marino
– Serbia
– Denmark
– Albania
I would be so happy if even one among Czech Republic, Poland or Moldova makes it, but I’m not holding my breath. Surprisingly, out of three, Rafal’s performance was the best one. 🙂
Ooo we are agreed on 9 out of 10. 🙂
Yeah, I think that Austria will come 11th or 12th. Juries will put it in for sure, but I assume that televote will eliminate it. But Vincent did one of the best vocal performances of the night.
Every San Marino qualification has an iconic reaction too so I can’t wait to see Senhit’s reaction
Ok just wanna say real quick BENNY IS IN
Well that comment aged like milk
I enjoyed that performance. It was much better than I had expected. Well done to The Black Mamba
Don’t know why but I’m finding it so adorable seeing Flo Rida waving the SM flag, he has no idea what’s going on lmao
My personal rankings after performance (first to 10th):
Switzerland, San Marino, Iceland, Serbia, Portugal, Albania, Greece, Finland, Bulgaria, Austria.
Non Qs: Moldova, Czech Republic, Latvia, Estonia, Denmark, Poland, Georgia.
Mine too, and also the bookies’. Somehow it feels like that is the obvious top 10, after tonight’s performances, even tho I really want Benny to qualify.
Prediction: 9 of your 10 qualifiers will go through. Denmark instead of Albania (unfortunately)
Portugal is amazing, specially the rocky part in the end.
Chantal is the best of the hosts, IMO.
plus I find this whole Flo Rida thing so random ^^
After this performance not so sure :/
Switzerland is winning this SF
Yep. I’m voting for Switzerland and San Marino. 🙂
Iceland is super strong too. I thought Bulgaria was winning this, but it isn’t “that” strong…
I agree. Bulgaria fell flat with me too. I feel sad for Victoria because she’s a great artist. But the staging was too flat.
Oh wow, Gjon’s Tears live voice is exquisite and astonishing! That’s the only one to move me this evening.
Lots of downvotes for this statement but Greece did not sound good or Moldova
No it’s fine. They sounded like they had perhaps over-sung in rehearsals. Or, it could have been the sound mix.
Albania’s Anxhela just took “solo vocalist performance” to a whole new level. Three minutes all by herself. A wonderful performance, bravo.
So far I liked San Marino, Iceland and Serbia the best. Also Austria’s Vincent sang really well.
7 songs into the live semi final, why is it only Austria and Flo rida have been the only two so far that have sang in tune
Too much adrenaline.
My ultimate prediction for this night (the chance I think they have in percentage): SWITZERLAND – 100% () BULGARIA – 100% (+) ICELAND – 90% () GREECE – 85% () FINLAND – 75% (-) SERBIA – 75% (+) SAN MARINO – 75%() PORTUGAL – 60% (++) ALBANIA – 50% (++) AUSTRIA – 50% (++) ————————— CZECH REPUBLIC – 50% (-) MOLDOVA – 45% (-) LATVIA – 45% (-) DENMARK – 30% (+) ESTONIA – 25% (+) POLAND – 10% () GEORGIA – 0% () Yeah I know. It is really very similar to what th odds say ut I have… Read more »
This is harder to predict, but here it goes:
Finland, Swizerland, Greece, Iceland, Bulgaria, Denmark, San Marino, Portugal, Serbia and Moldova
I think that the Czech Republic will make it!
Greece 1st!? What a pleasant surprise!
Apart from the flawless vocal last night, I think the huge roar from the crowd made a massive impression when Switzerland finished performing. A rise from 16-1 to 6-1 within 24 hours is quite remarkable…..and after another great showing tonight, he will most likely be challenging Italy and Malta, having surpassed France.
I’m for Bulgaria and Greece
Switzerland is about to pass France in the odds, like honestly I don’t see it coming top 3… top 5 maybe
Switzerland is the one I don’t see in top 3 just to avoid confusion
Don’t know if it’s been said, but Albania voting tonight gives Gjon a fairly big advantage.
It’s going to be close between Switzerland and Bulgaria for the jury win. However, I do think Switzerland has the edge in the televote between the two of them
Totally. Bulgaria is not a natural crowd pleaser…
Switzerland is this year fan favorite which is gonna flop hard, the stage presence is distracting to say the least
We shall see…
While the Maltese staging is AMAZING in your opinion..?
those are fans more than journalists
I still think Bulgaria is going to win this semi.
The song is so professional
Victoria is amazing
The song is more accessible being in English (yes I love when countries sing in their own language, but this song is just too good to ignore) no dodgy English lyrics, it actually makes sense.
Switzerland is awesome too by the way but I just think Victoria will clinch it.
1. Bulgaria
2. Switzerland
3. San Marino
4. Iceland
Hope everyone here who is voting tonight and everyone here who’s country is participating tonight the best of luck.
You’re going to be disappointed cos the song is bland and lacking a hook ; she’s dressed like she’s on her way to work somewhere
I bet it finishes about 8th in the grand final .!..if that
We’ll see but I honestly think she’s going to deliver.
I agree with everything you said but I still don’t think Bulgaria will have enough televote support… The average ESC viewer sees a song like Serbia and says “ooh sexy, fun, danceable, let’s vote for it!” and not sophisticate it so much…
portugal won the televote in 2017 and ukraine and the netherlands placed 2nd in 2016 and 2019 respectively and none of those countries sent a sexy dance bop, so i think your assessment is wrong. just because the song is slower does not mean it has no televote potential
Well, turns out I was right
I’m sooo happy that Switzerland is back in fourth place in the odds. My qualifier predictions: 1. Switzerland / Gjon’s Tears – Tout l’Univers 2. Finland / Blind Channel – Dark Side 3. San Marino / Senhit – Adrenalina 4. Bulgaria / Victoria – Growing Up is Getting Old 5. Serbia / Hurricane – Loco Loco 6. Greece / Stefania – Last Dance 7. Iceland / Da?i Freyr og Gagnamagni? – 10 Years 8. Albania / Anxhela Peristeri – Karma 9. Denmark / Fyr og Flamme – Øve Os På Hinanden 10. Portugal / The Black Mamba – Love Is… Read more »
Albania, Denmark and Portugal- not sure!
Czech Republic, Austria and Estonia- Could surprise!
My favorite, Georgia, has no chance, unfortunately….
I wish that Iceland will be out………
Serbia is also a sure Q but they’ll come 7th
I bet that Denmark go through even though its like something from the 80-90s it’s corny, wholesom and typical vintage eurovision
If Denmark manage to go through alongside Norway and Sweden the other day, it will prove that the Nordics get rewarded no matter what they send.
Iceland and Finland are the only nordics that should qualify this year IMO
Iceland is not “catchy” for those who will listen to it for the first time….
But perhaps their dance moves will be?
Yes, maybe….but I hope that someone who called for boycotting the Eurovision in 2019 will not be there in 2021…
And honestly, I feel like Finland and Iceland always have to earn their qualification. It’s never easy for them.
I don’t see any way Denmark is going to qualify. The only two other countries in this semifinal that appreciate schlager are Austria and Switzerland. But I doubt that the particular age groups will be tuning in tonight.
Am I the only one still hoping that Czech Republic is able to qualify? I love that song!
My hopes are crushed every day even more but I hope that they’ll pull through a move I personally call “Lithuania 2009” or “Lithuania 2011” or “Lithuania 2013” or almost “Lithuania 2019″…
Definitely think they should get through.
Czech Republic has really been taking ESC seriously since they came back in 2015.
Benny is also great performer, full of energy and charisma.
The song is catchy and infectious too.
Definitely think Czech Republic should make it.
I think that it will!
To be honest I can see them qualifying unless the performance is a train wreck – it’s a good radio friendly song and Benny oozes charisma.
why? Greece isn’t all that people are saying…
Up unill 2 days ago it was possible to bet on Gjon winning the second semi final @ 3-1 but now its shortened to 6-4… even at that short price it’s worth a bet cos he’s an obvious winner Just reason it out …he’s very likely to win the Jury vote and he’s very likely to beat Bulgaria in the TV vote … even if Iceland wins the TV vote they will be handicapped by the jury vote Even if Bulgaria won the Jury vote, they wouldn’t beat Switserland in the Televoting with such a flat song lacking a hook… Read more »
Don’t understimate Iceland power with the juries. I think Iceland odds are way too likely for such an obvious public winner. Dadi has an extremely jury-friendly package, more than people think.
I doubt it cos they have more sophisticated tastes than an act that a local high school could create … it’s a novelty act and any novelty act has little staying power and they are now a year old
A few hours before the semi I’m starting to worry about some SPECIFIC countries…
Those are Portugal, Denmark and Albania and all three grew on me SOOOO much recently but somehow I feel like they won’t qualify and I’m so sad to say that! Portugal is underrated every year, Denmark is too 80’s for televoters to love it and Albania’s staging isn’t the most powerful it could be… I’m afraid Moldova will be in and, as much as I like the song, they don’t deserve it.
Portugal will qualify, you can relax about that. Portugal is to SF2 what Belgium was to SF1. The Black Mamba are kinda safe. I am also very worried for the other two and I am hoping somehow they manage to qualify with Austria. But I feel like one or two between Austria, Albania and Denmark may stay out 🙁
Couldn’t Bulgaria perhaps already be SF2’s Belgium?
I’ve been following the Portuguese odds with some curiosity: a few weeks ago everyone labelled the song as ‘boring’. Now suddenly everybody seems to dig it. I think they’ve also had a complete u-turn with regards to the bookies.
Personally, I remain skeptical. Could go either way for them.
From what I gather they’ve staged it really well.
Okay, now that I see it … Portugal’s staging IS strong. Actually the best I’ve Seen so far this year.
Portugal being so high in the odds continues to baffle me. if this manages to qualify and yet telemoveis didnt…….
Me too. And I think Finland might be the Albina/Kate Ryan of SF2. Still gutted for Montaigne BTW.
Even the most basic and young Eurofan could identify Finland as a sure qualifier… Like, come on, Finland is a certain top5 for both juries AND televoters!
In which case I will be recommending to my country to send a generic 80s metal track next year to avoid another non-qualification with a more adventurous song!
First of all, I loved Telemoveis and Conan back in 2019, but the performance was more or less a car crash especially when you compare it to the FdC Final performance.
The Black Mamba on the other hand, have a song, that screams NQ, but from what I’ve seen and heard, they managed to lift it up through staging.
We’ll see if it works..
As much as I love Telemoveis more, it’s just our personal taste. There’s no need to make a comparison with a totally different song genre.
The Black Mamba delivered and they are kinda safe qualufiers, as much as Hooverphonic were safe qualifiers in SF1 with a stronger act in a stronger semi. Portugal is always underrated by this community, I really believe that results will prove everybody wrong about this song.
I made a comparison because they are both from Portugal, I thought that was clear.
Yes, it was clear, but it’s not like making a comparison between El Diablo and Set Me Free, that seems more logical, since they are both pop songs. Telemiveis and Love is on my side are like orange and pineapple (not pizza )
And?? My point was not in regards to genre. My point was that if Portugal could send an amazing song like Telemoveis and not qualify, they shouldn’t qualify with a far worse song like Love Is On My Side. It’s not that hard to understand.
But it isnt a far worse song to people who like that kind of music, it has a much wider appeal to the viewing public than Telemoveis would ever have had.
Portugal has a song with jury appeal, that is a fact. Plus, they are not amateurs, they are a professional band and that shines through. There is a market for this type of product which is not necessarily reflected on the taste of Eurovision fans.
I dont really think its possible to make a comparison between the 2. Telemoveis is still one of my favourite eurovision entries but i think most people who loved it always knew it was going to be a either love it or hate it kind of song. It was always going to be a struggle to get the jury vote. Black Mamba however will most certainly appeal to the jury and to the viewing public who appreciate a more calming song. Plus they have Switzerland, France and the UK voting in this semi all with huge Portuguese communities and Spain… Read more »