Eurovision 2021 odds: Italy new favourites to win
Photos: EBU / Thomas Hannes / Andres Putting

Toot toot! There’s movement with the Eurovision 2021 betting odds following Semi-Final 2 and the unveiling of the running order for the grand final. The analysis below comes from our friends at the Smarkets prediction market. 

  • As excitement around Eurovision 2021 reaches fever pitch, Italy find themselves favourites to win this year’s contest at a 30% chance, though the market is still wide open.
  • Italy took over France (24%) late last night after the publication of the running order, with former favourites Malta dropping to 11%Ukraine (10%), Switzerland (9%) and Iceland (5%) round out the top six.
  • There is a combined chance of 89% that one of these six countries will win the contest, with the remaining 11% split between 20 other entries.
  • The United Kingdom are the favourites to finish in last place for the second time in a row with a 42% chance.
  • This has been the most popular year yet for Eurovision betting on the Smarkets platform, with bettors wagering over £1m across all of our markets for the first time ever.
  • Smarkets Political Analyst Patrick Flynn said: “Domestically, the United Kingdom are favourites to finish last for the second year in a row. After this year’s final (assuming James Newman doesn’t massively outperform the odds), the UK will have recorded only one top ten result in the last 18 contests.” Read Patrick’s full comment below.

Eurovision 2021 odds: Italy overtakes France as favourite to win

“Our biggest ever Eurovision winner market went into overdrive last night following the second semi-final and the publication of the grand final running order in short succession. Both Italy (24th) and France (20th) landed good draws in the running order and cemented themselves as the two frontrunners in the market, with early favourite Malta collapsing in price following a sixth place draw, which will be difficult to win from.

“Though the Eurovision producers deny knowledge of the semi-final results when crafting the final running order, from this lineup it appears that Ukraine — not the odds-on favourite Malta — may have won the first semi-final. In light of this speculation, I think Malta may well now be out of contention for the win tomorrow. In the second semi-final, good draws at the end of the first half for Switzerland and Iceland suggest they may have finished as the top two in their heat.

“This year is the most open contest in the prediction markets for at least a decade, and could make for a nail-biting finish tomorrow night. With Malta out of contention in my view, it will be one of five entries (Italy, France, Ukraine, Switzerland or Iceland) that takes home the trophy.

“Domestically, the United Kingdom are favourites to finish last for the second year in a row. After this year’s final (assuming James Newman doesn’t massively outperform the odds), the UK will have recorded only one top ten result in the last 18 contests. If there is a potential upside to this, perhaps it could be that another bad result for the UK will finally spur the BBC into trying something different when selecting Eurovision entries from now on.”

For more betting market insights, follow Patrick on Twitter: @patricksmarkets

Subscribe
Notify of
guest
230 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Paul
3 months ago

Just saying that when weak entries win we usually have great contests next year. Look at AJERBAIJAN 2011 very weak but 2012 contest was great 2015 and 2017 the same and then we had amazing contests of 2016 and 2018

Purple Mask
Purple Mask
3 months ago

For Italy it has partly been a long time coming, and partly about how awesome Måneskin are at actually performing. About the stats, Italy probably could have won five times in the 2010s. Look at this record: 2011 (2nd), 2015 (3rd), 2017 (6th), 2018 (5th), 2019 (2nd). That’s knocking on the door of victories rather a lot. Italy are the most obvious bet really, both statistically and because of the band.

COLIN POWIS
COLIN POWIS
3 months ago
Reply to  Purple Mask

You can see with the betting odds that Italy are likely to win ; they are even in the top 5 of the Jury betting

lasse braun
lasse braun
3 months ago

the bookies still underestimate ukraine!
i think at the end it will go only between italy and ukraine,because europe wants party on!
ukraine is on the way to stunning 7 million hits until the final tomorrow. 🙂

Paul
Paul
3 months ago
Reply to  lasse braun

Their odds are shortening right now…

Alex
Alex
3 months ago
Reply to  lasse braun

I agree that Ukraine should have been 3rd now instead of Malta.

Helen
Helen
3 months ago

Did you folks know that all members of Go_A, except Ihor played metal before,
Kate herself can do pretty impressive growl.

She had a lung tumor as a kid which caused a massive internal bleeding, she had a part of lungs removed. And since then she had to learn a different technique of singing where she makes her voice vibrate in her head

aroncido
aroncido
3 months ago

Hot take for the evening before the big show: San Marino’s Adrenalina comes closest to achieving the atmosphere that Fuego did back in 2018, and I expect a very strong finish in the top 5.

Alex
Alex
3 months ago
Reply to  aroncido

Lol that’s so wrong in many levels. San Marino had disappointing rehearsals while Cyprus jumped to 2nd place after rehearsals.

aroncido
aroncido
3 months ago
Reply to  Alex

Bookies’ odds aren’t gospel.
I don’t expect it to be quite as successful as Fuego – mostly because of the “been-there-done-that”-ness of the situation – but given how many entries have tried to go for the Fuego feel in recent years, San Marino definitely comes closest.

Pierre
Pierre
3 months ago

I dont know what people are talking about in terms of italian quality. I’ll go for Belgium, France or Ukraine. All quality songs.

Bella
Bella
3 months ago
Reply to  Pierre

You can dislike the Italian song for personal preferences or because you don’t like that style, but it is indeed a super high quality. Damiano’s vocals are STELLAR, his live rendition sounds even better than the studio version and there’s not one missed note. Also Maneskin composed and wrote the song 100% themselves. If that’s not high quality, I don’t know what that is (the 3 songs you mentioned are also quality btw).

Sally
Sally
3 months ago
Reply to  Bella

It’s a terribly cliche, unoriginal generic rock song. It’s not high quality.

Sol
Sol
3 months ago
Reply to  Bella

Quality is, almost by definition, subjective after all.

Alex
Alex
3 months ago
Reply to  Pierre

Italy will do well with juries because the vocals are excellent. Of course i do not expect the older jury members to rank Italy high but the younger ones will do.

Roald Didriksen
Roald Didriksen
3 months ago
Reply to  Alex

Do not firget that Finland do actually gave a stronger rocksong than Italy, but on the hole the Ukrain has more moderen rocks Inger with a heavy met experience which should take them to win, all the otther songs sounds old fashion compears to Ukrain, it is likely that Europe Will gi for something New this year in order to make eurovision into a new aera

Héctor
Héctor
3 months ago

I’d say this is a three-sided race for the trophy between France, Italy and Switzerland. And, to be honest, I’d be happy with any of them. It would be also interesting to see two countries from the Big Five and, a lately mistreated country like Switzerland, up there. The three have been improving their game over the last years (well, Italy was there already). I just hope Spain stop complaining and making excuses and start working a bit more on Eurovision. There you have Austria, The Netherlands, France, Belgium, Portugal,… All of them were despised but have ended up winning… Read more »

Vytautas
Vytautas
3 months ago

Did you know that out of all the artists singing ballads (France, Bulgaria, etc.) one of the ESC winner (Sobral) is in fact rooping for The Roop? I just saw the latest conference call between Sobral and The Roop. Salvador said The Roop is his favourite entry in the ESC. Fingers crossed Europe will see it too, vote #18! 🙂

Alex
Alex
3 months ago
Reply to  Vytautas

wow so random! why would he do that? I doubt that he likes the roop song he has said that he supports France and Portugal because he knows them and he loves the french chanson style.

Bella
Bella
3 months ago

France has a nice song and Barbara is adorable, but if it’s between France and Italy then I’ll 100% support Italy! Voila is a little morose and depressing, and after a year of pandemic and lockdowns that’s not the mood I want. I want Maneskin to blow the roof off, I want Zitti e Buoni at maximum volume, I want to party, I want to scream, I want to jump! So… 12 points for Italy (but still 10 points for Barbara :))! Also Italy is probably the only country that has constantly sent only quality and their biggest artists to… Read more »

COLIN POWIS
COLIN POWIS
3 months ago
Reply to  Bella

You make a good point insomuch the zeitgeist may well favour a high energy band

Sama
Sama
3 months ago

Rock all Europe, Maneskin !

Anhel
Anhel
3 months ago

So I’ve been doing some modest analyses on who’s the most statistically probable winner and the results will suprise you. Considering the following data: – Only one song has won from a running order position below 10th in the last 20 years; no song has won from last position or from two removed from last, only 2 have won from penultimate position – An authomatic qualifier has only won once in the last 20 years – None of the big favorites this year have won in the past 20 years, except for Ukraine – Only two songs without English lyrics… Read more »

Last edited 3 months ago by Anhel
Hélène
Hélène
3 months ago
Reply to  Anhel

I appreciate the effort – your use of statistics great job! We will see tomorrow.

Anhel
Anhel
3 months ago
Reply to  Hélène

Thanks!

Anhel
Anhel
3 months ago
Reply to  Anhel

Oh or Iceland! If it gives you winner vibes

Bella
Bella
3 months ago
Reply to  Anhel

I’m sure all these numbers are correct, but that only fails to take into account one “minor” factor: the quality of the song. And for a song contest, that’s kind of important. I can tell you that no song as bland as “Fallen Angel” has won in the last 65 years… 🙂

Anhel
Anhel
3 months ago
Reply to  Bella

“Running Scared” has left the chat 😀
But no, it’s just for fun, I don’t really think Norway will win! That’s why I put a few
more that would be in a better accordance with the song quality and the odds, and I still hope for an Italy or Switzerland win (or to a lesser extent France).
(But anyway “song quality” is subjective)

Last edited 3 months ago by Anhel
sangfreudx
sangfreudx
3 months ago
Reply to  Anhel

Such a fun analysis – awesome work. Just to play devil’s advocate for “Fallen Angel” (ha), I actually honestly love the song. I know it’s not popular – even loathed – by so many hardcore ESC fans, but even before I knew the back story of Tourette’s and bullying, the chords and the harmonies gave me an emotional reaction. Then when I learned the significance of his name, and why the sunglasses, and how he tries to be someone that kids like he was can look up to, then it really started to affect me. In the semifinal, seeing him… Read more »

Anhel
Anhel
3 months ago
Reply to  sangfreudx

I pretty much agree with everything you said! Not my favorite song (it’s in my 15th position), but it’s not as bad as people say – I had it as a sure qualifier; and the sunglasses thing and the message add so much to it. I genuinely wish the best of luck to TIX at the final 🙂

pedro moita
pedro moita
3 months ago
Reply to  Anhel

Sorry, but the last time Norway won was not in the last 10 years (if I’m not mistaken it was Alexander Rybak in 2009)

Anhel
Anhel
3 months ago
Reply to  pedro moita

Oh you’re right, I’m sorry! I wasn’t counting 2020 because Covid, but my math was wrong any way. Turns out there are 11 years from 2009 to 2019, who knew!

AdamZee
AdamZee
3 months ago
Reply to  Anhel

fyi. Greece won in 2005 and they were an automatic qualifier back then under previous ESC rules. so that’s 2 automatic qualifiers who have won in the last 20 years. anyway, it doesn’t matter cause we all know an automatic qualifier will win this year 🙂

Caos
Caos
3 months ago

I can see France, winning the jury vote

Ant
Ant
3 months ago

For those interested in Go_A, you can check out the mini-movie that the Ukrainian broadcaster released about the lead singer Kateryna. It is meant for the domestic audience but it also has English subs. She has a quite a unique and harsh life story: https://youtu.be/81uUAfhUEHg

Last edited 3 months ago by Ant
Dave
Dave
3 months ago

If UK come last again no point entry again bbc just stop give money contest for good

Sabrina
Sabrina
3 months ago

I can make a case for all of the bookies’ top 6, but each one comes with a series of “ifs” and “maybes”. I believe Italy will do very well with the televote. They have good recent results with the audience, Maneskin built an avid fanbase online and everybody that likes rock or thinks it would be cool for a rock song to win may take this is a rare opportunity to make it happen. Being the frontrunner may be helpful with the juries, because they tend to have more respect for the favorites. Also, Damiano’s vocals aren’t alienating like… Read more »

tomtomtom
tomtomtom
3 months ago
Reply to  Sabrina

Iceland has no shot. They aren’t even going to be present at the contest and this will hurt them like Australia despite people saying it won’t. But the rest I agree.

Sabrina
Sabrina
3 months ago
Reply to  tomtomtom

I agree that using a taped performance is a huge blow on their chances, but it’s a different situation than Australia, since their performance was recorded in the same stage as the others. But the biggest problem is that many viewers and more of the half of the jurors already watched the exact same one. During Sanremo, I’ve noticed how re-watching Irama night after night diminished the impact of the entry. So, it’s indeed a very long shot.

Sunshine
Sunshine
3 months ago
Reply to  Sabrina

I’m still very optimistic about Switzerland. The comments on last night’s performance are positive on the YouTube chanel.

Tarleton
Tarleton
3 months ago
Reply to  Sunshine

I bet they won last night

Sabrina
Sabrina
3 months ago
Reply to  Sunshine

He left a gret impression on me yesterday. And he also looked extremely likeable on the green room, which can’t hurt in terms of televote.

Tarleton
Tarleton
3 months ago
Reply to  Sabrina

Good analysis on your part but to be a good gambler you must prioritise and cut out the acts that can win but likely wont ; ergo only France , Malta and Switzerland are likely to win the Jury vote and probably in that particular order .. I’ll be genuinly surprised if France doesn’t win As far as the Televote I’d expect Italy to win considering the bookies odds that are more reflective of the support for a particular act …I sense that Malta’s support is waning and don’t know how well France will do with the Televote ; but… Read more »

Sabrina
Sabrina
3 months ago
Reply to  Tarleton

I’m not a gambler, but if I were one, I would be between France, Italy and Switzerland. What would make it insanely unpredictable is if all of them fail to reach the top 5 in both ends. Imagine if Italy, San Marino, Ukraine, Lithuania and Finland top the televote and France, Malta, Switzerland, Bulgaria and Portugal or Belgium top the juries…

But I would guess at least one of those 3 will manage to do it.

COLIN POWIS
COLIN POWIS
3 months ago
Reply to  Sabrina

Someone made a good point above insomuch after the lockdown the zeitgeist may well favour a high energy band to blow the roof off …Italy wins

esc1234
esc1234
3 months ago

No chance Ukraine will win, in 2017 the hosting was problematic to say the least, imagine them hosting in the middle of a pandemic lmao no way

Azaad
Azaad
3 months ago
Reply to  esc1234

Lol if we’re considering abilities to host in a pandemic you’d think the juries would’ve been instructed to give Montaigne 12s across the board and the EBU would’ve let Sydney host 2022.

esc1234
esc1234
3 months ago
Reply to  Azaad

australia cant host regardless 😉

Sergi
Sergi
3 months ago

Ukraine is on 5th place in TOP-50 Spotify trends WORLDWIDE!

steven
steven
3 months ago

France 2022 PLEASE

Simon
Simon
3 months ago

If Ukraine wins the contest that is the death knell of fine music as we know it for Eurovision. The song has no structure, no melody, no bridges, no chorus as such. A horrible, horrible composition.

Pandaman
Pandaman
3 months ago
Reply to  Simon

It has structure, it has melody. It also tells a story, brings in something proper for Ukrainian culture, reaches out to folk music, blends genres. And not every song needs to have a verse-chorus-verse-chorus-bridge-chorus construction.

raylee
raylee
3 months ago
Reply to  Simon

they will not win but they will get a high place

Last edited 3 months ago by raylee
Fatima
Fatima
3 months ago
Reply to  Simon

And yet I’ve played it 93 times in the past week. If only you had told me earlier. Too late now, I like it!

Benji
Benji
3 months ago
Reply to  Fatima

Then you must be a masochist, I’ve heard it three times up to now and even that was too much for me.

aroncido
aroncido
3 months ago
Reply to  Simon

Or perhaps you should consider expanding your understanding of “fine music”. The verse-chorus-verse-chorus-bridge-chorus formula is not the be-all-end-all of music or even popular music.

Tarleton
Tarleton
3 months ago

Back in 2017 when Portugal was just starting to overtake Italy in the odds I followed the Friday night jury show closely and read on a twitter chat line from people who were actually at the arena that Salvador had won the jury vote ; this was only on the twitter grapevine so to speak but it sounded right and confirmed my gambler’s hunch that Portugal would win ; consequently I bet a large amount of money on that and won ..naturally I didn’t know if that ”tip” was correct but I guessed that with so many folks involved in… Read more »

Kyler
Kyler
3 months ago
Reply to  Tarleton

Yeah I even think that some juries would also bet in secret like they would tell their brother or cousin to bet and they would split their winnings

esc1234
esc1234
3 months ago
Reply to  Kyler

as long as ebu allows 5 people to have the same power with millions of viewers such things will happen. I mean i am Greek but watch out Moldova giving 12 points to Greece because of Kirkorov.

Pasadena
Pasadena
3 months ago
Reply to  Kyler

The juries don’t get to see the full jury results.

Jonas
Jonas
3 months ago
Reply to  Pasadena

They probably don’t even get to see their own country’s full results.

Tarleton
Tarleton
3 months ago
Reply to  Pasadena

Not officially but when you have that many people involved then then a wink and a nodd can travel on the grapevine

Andreu
Andreu
3 months ago
Reply to  Tarleton

What have you inferred so far from the show?

sucof
sucof
3 months ago

The top 10 Eurovision 2021 songs most listened to globally on Spotify:

1. Italia – ZITTI E BUONI by Måneskin
2. Svezia – Voices by Tusse
3. Finlandia – Dark Side by Blind Channel
4. Norvegia – Fallen Angel by TIX
5. Francia – Voilà by Barbara Pravi
6. Cipro – El Diablo by Elena Tsagrinou
7. Danimarca – Øve Os På Hinanden by Fyr Og Flamme
8. Svizzera – Tout l’univers by Gjon’s Tears
9. Islanda – 10 Years by Daði Freyr
10. Olanda – Birth Of A New Age by Jeangu Macrooy

Giolo
Giolo
3 months ago
Reply to  sucof

I’m so happy for Fyr Og Flamme. At least, they are having big success in their home country

Hélène
Hélène
3 months ago
Reply to  Giolo

They are also popular on Swedish Spotify

Hélène
Hélène
3 months ago
Reply to  Hélène

Considering the popularity in Denmark for their entry I think they are more dignified losers than the Croatian fans. They are not accusing others of their loss or creating conspiracies.

Giolo
Giolo
3 months ago
Reply to  Hélène

What is the conspiracy theory with Croatia? I honestly think their NQ is deserved, as the other competitors were stronger

Last edited 3 months ago by Giolo
Hélène
Hélène
3 months ago
Reply to  Giolo

They are stating everywhere that the juries are bought by some countries . I am not going to say which countries but you can guess… They even have a petition out that states: “Albina was clearly robbed from grand final because of the fact that Croatia is a small country, and other politics that influence Eurovision song contest and that have been influencing it for the past few years… “

Hélène
Hélène
3 months ago
Reply to  Hélène

Like Trump stop the steal!

Giolo
Giolo
3 months ago
Reply to  Hélène

Yes, because they sow anteriore to have the powerful, rich and big San Marino in the Grand Final… I understand how it’s frustrati to lose a favorite, but that is too much

Mark
Mark
3 months ago

Italy will be destroyed by the jury today, they have 0% possibility of winning.

Stephanie
3 months ago
Reply to  Mark

Downvote all you want, but I think Mark has a point about Italy and the juries. Rock/metal is a very hard genre to sell to Eurovision juries (unlike 2006 where it was just televote), and then there’s also Finland fighting for the same block of voters. I think it’s going to be a fight between Switzerland and France for the jury win with possibly Portugal as a dark horse, and the televote will ultimately decide between the two

Denis
Denis
3 months ago
Reply to  Stephanie

Interstingly enough rock has been more jury friendly than vote friendly. In 2018 Albania’s rock song did really well with jury but tanked with voters. Finland’s rock in 2014 did better with juries, as did Malta’s folk rock. So rock isnt that far off for juries

Hélène
Hélène
3 months ago
Reply to  Denis

Yes i think Italy will do great with the jury.

Whoareyou?
Whoareyou?
3 months ago

Usually, after the second semifinal, the odds are showing the real winner, or if not at first place, they have them at second place. So it’s clearly between Italy and France by now.

P.S. Don’t be surprised if this year Greece and Cyprus give 10 to each other, because 12 will probably go to Italy.

Sol
Sol
3 months ago
Reply to  Whoareyou?

Still better keep in mind, that in 2019, Norway was 6th in the odds but won the televote and North Macedonia was 15th in the odds but won the jury votes. This year seems even less certain.

esc1234
esc1234
3 months ago
Reply to  Whoareyou?

even 8 i would reckon, this french sansone is the typical jury choice in greek jury (2011 france for example)

Kas
Kas
3 months ago
Reply to  Whoareyou?

France

Anne
Anne
3 months ago
Reply to  Whoareyou?

ahah so wrong. When Portugal won, Salvador Sobral started in 8º after the 2 semi final. And he won. Portugal could be the winner this year again.

sangfreudx
sangfreudx
3 months ago

So cool to have 4 out of 6 front runners that are non-English language. Maybe there’s room for more than one non-English winner every decade. OPEN UP indeed!

wonder
wonder
3 months ago

They will not win, this is a year in which the winner is unpredictable.
Even a “weak” song in the polls can win, and there are a few, so-called “dark horses.”

Sot
Sot
3 months ago

Honestly, Italy’s chance have been rising and rising every day… while I agree with some people that say a rock song cannot have a huge audience or a big enough one to win, I think their chances are more solid than with ‘Soldi’, a song of a genre unpopular to older viewers, ‘Non Mi Avete Fatto Niente’, a song PURELY based on the viewer’s feelings at that particular moment or ‘Occidentali’s Karma’ which was great fun but it gave me no winner vibes

Yana
Yana
3 months ago
Reply to  Sot

The truth is, my friend, that even those people who don’t listen to Rock music LIKE this song !

Laburnum
Laburnum
3 months ago

I would be very happy with France or Italy winning as they have been my favourites from the start. But I think France would have more of an edge on Italy. While performing sixth is really not ideal to win, Malta can still come a respectable third possibly. I expect Ukraine, Switzerland and Iceland (could potentially be in the running to win if they were performing in person) to be high up too. And I really don’t think the UK will come last..lower end of the board sure but last? No

Laburnum
Laburnum
3 months ago
Reply to  Laburnum

Oh and Bulgaria, Lithuania and San Marino should do really well too

Melania
Melania
3 months ago
Reply to  Laburnum

remember only the top 10 of a countries jury and televote get votes, Embars could totally be an 11th to 20th on people’s lists but if he doesn’t crack into people’s top 10s he won’t get the points and will probably end up last.

Plus the song is kinda flat, the performance is static. It screams bottom 5

Anne
Anne
3 months ago

Portugal could be the winner. It’s a marvelous song.

Believe10
Believe10
3 months ago

I am so sad that my 3 favourites Croatia, Romania and Austria didn’t make it into the finals. But I am wishing the other contestants best of luck for the finals. I will be rooting for France (and Russia).

Paul
Paul
3 months ago
Reply to  Believe10

Why can’t everyone be like you!

Believe10
Believe10
3 months ago
Reply to  Paul

Thanks! Did you have the same favourites? And who are you rooting for now?

Paul
Paul
3 months ago
Reply to  Believe10

I had completely different favourites and thankfully they’re all still in – but just your positive nature, openness and general kindness seemed like the kind of thing everyone should be adopting! Enjoy the final!

Believe10
Believe10
3 months ago
Reply to  Paul

That’s nice to hear, thank you! I hope you enjoy the final, too. And good luck to your favourites!

Eurovision2016>
Eurovision2016>
3 months ago

sugar should be higher for sure.

Last edited 3 months ago by Eurovision2016>
Nick
Nick
3 months ago

Sugar should be out of final

Somebody
Somebody
3 months ago

Bulgaria continues to be underrated. 10th? I’m positive juries will crown her in Top 5 and televote will be Aminata levels to be much higher than this spot.

Eurovision2016>
Eurovision2016>
3 months ago
Reply to  Somebody

it’s between her and france.

Denis
Denis
3 months ago

As a Swede Italy has been my favourite from the start, maybe its the Scadinavian sound..
But I love it simply because its the best song! So I would love if Italy won. But knowing the history of big 5, and history of Italy in this contest and the fact that they have been favourites before I dont hope for much.

Hélène
Hélène
3 months ago
Reply to  Denis

Hej Denis, vad tror du – kommer svenska tv-publiken rösta på Ukraina?

Denis
Denis
3 months ago
Reply to  Hélène

Hehe, röstar vi inte nordiskt i topp?Island eller Finland tror jag…

Last edited 3 months ago by Denis
Hélène
Hélène
3 months ago
Reply to  Denis

Fattar inte hur någon kan rösta ner min fråga. Men så är det här på wiwibloggs. Tycker de borde ta bort nedröstningen det blir så negativt. Men jag tror tyvärr att svenskarna kommer rösta på typ Cypern. Blev chockad när Rasmussen fick så många röster härom året.

Denis
Denis
3 months ago
Reply to  Hélène

ska lämna de här sidan efter ESC. Inte värt att va kvar här och må dåligt. Lär ju inte bli bättre att komma hit efter finalen om Sverige hamnar dåligt, vilket allt pekar på att vi gör. Vanliga dans utanför siten är så mycket vänligare och stödjer allt även om de inte gilalr låten, där ska jag med. va tycker du?

Hélène
Hélène
3 months ago
Reply to  Denis

Jag håller med.

Tizio
Tizio
3 months ago
Reply to  Denis

Italy has never been first in the betting odds the day before the final, let alone the day of the final lol.

Last edited 3 months ago by Tizio
Michael Green
Michael Green
3 months ago

Portuguese song today at I-toons – best seller of all Eurovision songs: “Love Is On My Side” (Portugal)
#5 Portugal
#6 Países Baixos
#23 Polónia
#31 Suécia
#31 Dinamarca
#37 Noruega
#38 Áustria
#66 Espanha
#104 Bélgica
#149 Itália
#172 Suíça

Sot
Sot
3 months ago
Reply to  Michael Green

That Suica is Switzerland I suppose..? And Suecia is Sweden? Wow, Portuguese is confusing

Anne Marie
Anne Marie
3 months ago
Reply to  Sot

I guessed Suecia is Sweden because they are bigger Fans of ESC in general than Switzerland haha

pms
pms
3 months ago
Reply to  Sot

Exactly. You guessed perfectly!

Michael Green
Michael Green
3 months ago

Portugal is in the 8th place in the odds and increasing. Top5? Yohanna from Iceland placed 2nd in the final was in spot #7, like Moldova in 2017 that placed 3rd or Armenia in 2014 that placed 4th. Just saying.

Malo
Malo
3 months ago
Reply to  Michael Green

Wouldn’t be mad at that outcome. Time for Portugal to get some recognition (except for 2017 ofc)

Doris
Doris
3 months ago
Reply to  Michael Green

Black Mambas sweet sound will be such a relief after the screaming angered maltese girl.

HHarut
HHarut
3 months ago
Reply to  Michael Green

North Macedonia won the jury voting , she performed 7 as well

Eurovision2016>
Eurovision2016>
3 months ago

are a few simple reasons why italy simply won’t win. it will split the televote with finland. rock songs won’t win the televote as eurovision has become more mainstream and more casual viewers who usually don’t have rock as their favorite genre have joined in to vote. also, they won’t do too good in the jury vote and you need to do well in both votes to win. the winner is between france and bulgaria simple as.

Matt
Matt
3 months ago

Bulgaria.. pleeeeease, she will struggle with the televote!!!

Eurovision2016>
Eurovision2016>
3 months ago
Reply to  Matt

wouldn’t be too sure about that as most of my friends and family, including non eurovision fans, have it as their favorite. also, it wouldn’t even need a top three finish in the televote in order to win I don’t think because the other “favourites” will all get slaughtered in the jury except from france malta and switzerland. switzerland won’t win because it’s show is so awkward. malta won’t win because of its running order and the song just isn’t good enough to win as highlighted by the running order she probably didn’t do good in the semi. so realistically… Read more »

Last edited 3 months ago by Eurovision2016>
Matt
Matt
3 months ago

He said, she or they said is one thing, we can go on and on about this for days, most of my friends and family slept on Her song and find it very boring.. so that’s not an indication on anything..

But hey, we shall see all of it tomorrow when the voting ends.. 😉

Eurovision2016>
Eurovision2016>
3 months ago
Reply to  Matt

we’ll see either bulgaria or france winning.

Michael Green
Michael Green
3 months ago

France can do good in both, as well as Iceland

Alex
Alex
3 months ago

Wrong. Italy and Finland are different songs.

Vytautas
Vytautas
3 months ago

SPOILER: It’s The Roop from Lithuania who will win the ESC! I mean, literally, producers already gave the trophy to Vaidotas, check it out yourself: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dOfVoGRxpiQ

L’oiseau
L’oiseau
3 months ago

Wiwibloggs sorry, but you are sleeping on the biggest climber in the odds: Portugal. It is on 8th place now, and it come from 25th!!!

Michael Green
Michael Green
3 months ago
Reply to  L’oiseau

Bulgaria is even above…

Matt
Matt
3 months ago
Reply to  Michael Green

You mean Bulgaria is lower than Portugal, not above.. 😉

Doris
Doris
3 months ago
Reply to  L’oiseau

Now I wouldn’t be surprised Portugal pulling a Netherlands 2014.

L’oiseau
L’oiseau
3 months ago
Reply to  Doris

Do you think??? Wow that would be something! I think the song is not at that standard…. my winner in 2014 and still one of the best songs this century, at least.

Eurovisionary
Eurovisionary
3 months ago

Lol italy overtook france for sometime now and continue to stay at the top while france and Malta keep changing places for 3rd and 2nd position and Switzerland and Ukraine for 4th and 5th position. Victory is between italy and france

Sale
Sale
3 months ago
Reply to  Eurovisionary

France overtook it last night but after the running order Italy overtook again

Alex
Alex
3 months ago
Reply to  Eurovisionary

France is not going to win UNLESS juries flop Italy.

Frank
3 months ago

All this speculation:-) Let’s just enjoy that Eurovision is back with one of the strongest and most exciting years ever and a great show:-))

Giancarlo
Giancarlo
3 months ago

I wonder how many people are betting on Italy winning this year’s Eurovision. WE WIN!! I heard that RAI is already deciding where to organise the show next year. Sorry for the other countries, but we are the winners!! Italy 2022 (Noi siamo i migliori!)

cai1995
cai1995
3 months ago

The issue is with the UK – We say we want a uptempo song .. we get one but the artist isn’t engaging and stage isn’t great… we need something unique Italy or Ukraine or a good pop song like Cyprus or Malta.. James is lovely and would be great in a festival setting but he’s a song writer not a performer and if he gets last then its due to a average song with weak vocals and staging that is trying to hard but also not saying anything. It makes me sad when we have the resources to do… Read more »

Alex
Alex
3 months ago
Reply to  cai1995

thank you! We’ve been saying this for years, why don’t they send a female performer singing a hot banger? NO DRAG QUEENS. Why is it so difficult for BMG and BBC??

Azaad
Azaad
3 months ago
Reply to  Alex

Mabel is a fairly well known pop singer affiliated with BMG and she’s half Swedish so she’ll probably have a better understanding of ESC than the average Brit. Send her.

Also, I’m not averse to a drag queen in the style of Conchita.

Alex
Alex
3 months ago
Reply to  Azaad

Mabel’s mother was involved with Melodifestivalen decades ago i think. However, they won’t let her do it because she’s successful already so it would be a career risk unfortunately. Conchita did her thing which means no other drag queen can do what she did. No point of recycling ideas. Conchita had a message and her song was amazing, it wasn’t just a drag queen with a beard. She had a great voice. This is what BBC and UK won’t get. It’s not just being campy for the sake of it. It’s the message, the voice and the SONG. It’s a… Read more »

Jofty
Jofty
3 months ago
Reply to  Alex

You had your chance with Sweet Lies by Kerrie-Anne but the “expert panel” swayed the public towards Michael Rice bless him.

Henry
Henry
3 months ago
Reply to  cai1995

definitely!

Paul
Paul
3 months ago
Reply to  cai1995

I’d love something truly urban sounding – not sure whether it would resonate with the rest of Europe but it is uniquely British…

Jofty
Jofty
3 months ago
Reply to  Paul

Tom Grennan?

Luc
Luc
3 months ago
Reply to  Jofty

It would be great! But he’s already gaining traction and his case would be similar to that of Mabel

Jofty
Jofty
3 months ago
Reply to  cai1995

I like the song and James is a dude. But as you say not a performer. I wonder why he is there in the first place? I will watch back last night but there was a “vocal coach”, “choreographer”, etc. Now I know this probably applies to all delegations but I wonder if James needs a little more “coaching” then some of the other artists? And I really don’t want this coming out of my licence fee! Respect, but James has plenty of his own money.

AndersP
AndersP
3 months ago
Reply to  cai1995

We need a full scale national final process with the same level of effort, staging, BBC-enthusiasm and money as Strictly. Something worthwhile for singers and songwriters to participate in. Not the half-arsed You Decide shows of the last couple of years. If a song can beat out 15/20/25/30 other songs in a prime time show (like in Sweden, like in Italy), it is in good stead for Eurovision. I really like Embers, but I’m sad to say it looks like it will crash tomorrow – I hope it doesn’t stop things in its tracks again in terms of trying to… Read more »

PP77
PP77
3 months ago

Can Serbia be like Poland 2014, 2016. Almost bottom with juries, but get huge amount of points from televote.

sam
sam
3 months ago
Reply to  PP77

well serbia is guaranteed points from a lot of other countries. keep in mind that slovenia, croatia, north macedonia, and romania all NQed so the chances they give serbia some jury points and obviously plenty of televotes is pretty high since they wont be as split up between eachother

ROXELANA
ROXELANA
3 months ago
Reply to  sam

True, I think the Balkans will give high points to Serbia and Azerbaijan

Alex
Alex
3 months ago
Reply to  PP77

No, Serbia is NOT like Poland. Poland was universal and provocative. Polish diaspora is bigger as well.

Serbia has three girls with no props and a song in Serbian. I love them but let’s be honest. It will appeal mostly to Serbians in Europe (plus other ex-yugoslav expats) and Balkans. If someone wants to vote for a fun trash pop song, they will go for Cyprus and Azerbaijan.

Alex
Alex
3 months ago
Reply to  Alex

I think Serbia will get around 70 points from televoting (ex-yugo countries, Bulgaria, Austria, Switzerland, Germany, France, Sweden, Czech Republic, Azerbaijan)

ROXELANA
ROXELANA
3 months ago

The juries will vote this evening, right?

Benji
Benji
3 months ago

The bookmakers have two hard rock songs in their Top 10 at the moment. Something like that has never happened before, it will be interesting to see if that’s possible. Or are the bookmakers very wrong?

Rob
Rob
3 months ago

I think it’s easier to predict the televote winner than the jury winner. Ukraine has a chance, I think, even more than Italy or Iceland.

Hélène
Hélène
3 months ago
Reply to  Rob

It is very difficult for me to see that Ukraine will win the Nordic public vote. Usually liking Rasmussen and Keeino. It would surprise me a lot. I think the Nordic public will wote for Finland, Iceland, Sweden, Malta Switzerland and maybe Cyprus. We will see about Italy and France if they are stellar they will also have a lot of votes. And I do think Nordic’s will prefer Russia over Ukraine. There are some others that Might get high votes like Belgium and Lithuania.

Last edited 3 months ago by Hélène
Engin
Engin
3 months ago
Reply to  Hélène

Actually, SHUM is currently #1 on the Spotify Viral 50 charts of ALL Nordic countries!

Bob
Bob
3 months ago
Reply to  Hélène

Ukraine’s performance has been trending on Youtube in Sweden. I wouldn’t count them out!

Alex
Alex
3 months ago
Reply to  Rob

Ukraine will be top 3 in televoting (Armenia/Belarus are not voting for it’s a loss for Ukraine). I think Italy, iceland and Ukraine will be the top 3 of the public. Probably Ukraine will be 2nd but Italy will be the winner of televoting. They will finally get high points from Scandinavia which is a big plus and of course all Mediterranean countries will vote for them. The Italian diaspora is also big in Western/central Europe.

Hélène
Hélène
3 months ago
Reply to  Alex

How can you be so sure? I checked Spotify Sweden – it is a real measurement of peoples tastes Here and Cyprus is place 30 something that is first after that Malta, Denmark, Norway and Azerbaijan,. First after that Is Ukraine (On like the 100 spot) and Last Italy. This is the list on Spotify so far! And since Italy hasn’t performed yet it is quite good for them! I don’t like Cyprus but it might be the Swedish public taste so I am grateful that we have juries!

pms
pms
3 months ago
Reply to  Alex

I doubt seriously that Iceland will get many votes from southern Europe, both west and east

Darren
3 months ago

Honestly too excited.
It’s been a long time since we had such an open contest like anyone out of Italy, France, Bulgaria, Iceland, San Marino, Switzerland, Russia, Ukraine could win and it’s entirely deserved.

Michu
Michu
3 months ago
Reply to  Darren

Iceland? San Marino? Russia? Ukraine? Please. It’d more likely be Malta than any of these 4.

ROXELANA
ROXELANA
3 months ago
Reply to  Darren

Sorry, but how on earth can Bulgaria win? Like literally, it’s one of their weakest entries since their return.

Tears getting sober had winning potential but GUIGO? Really?

Michu
Michu
3 months ago
Reply to  ROXELANA

I agree that Bulgaria stands no chance. I honestly don’t understand why almost nobody says how underwhelming Victoria’s performance is. She’s just not skilled enough to handle this beautiful song.

Alex
Alex
3 months ago
Reply to  Darren

No honey, you’re wrong. Don’t think like a Eurovision fan but more like the average Eurovision viewer.

Bulgaria is out (not even top 10), Russia is out (might not make it in the top 10 either), San Marino will not be high with juries so no chance to win. Iceland, Ukraine and of course Italy stand the highest chances. Switzerland is a mystery wth the public.

Pedro Pereira
3 months ago
Reply to  Darren

Just a reminder… Portugal started the odds very badly… We still dream that we can do it. There is finess and a great voice in a simple music with a great story. Love is on ALL sides.
Anyway… I’m sure that tomorrow’s night will be an hell of a ride.
Have fun… Spread LOVE!!!

Catriona Colville
Catriona Colville
3 months ago
Reply to  Darren

Bulgaria can’t win. Their statistics are terrible, and they are now 90/1 to win.

pms
pms
3 months ago
Reply to  Darren

My five cents… I would say that only Italy, Switzerland, France, Malta and Ukraine have any possibility of winning. Russia and Bulgaria are not in the race and Iceland will do well in northern countries but not in southern…

Bob
Bob
3 months ago

We haven’t had a rock entry win Eurovision in a while, I will be pleasantly surprised if Italy wins Eurovision 2021! I can’t really see France win – I think the song is lovely but lovely doesn’t make a Eurovision winner. Let’s see! I think some countries like Switzerland and Ukraine can still find a path to the victory, even Iceland has a shot but they would have to win a lot of juries and as much as the jury will find them charming I don’t think it’s likely they will finish in their top 3. Malta and Bulgaria will… Read more »

Last edited 3 months ago by Bob
BadWoolfGirl
BadWoolfGirl
3 months ago
Reply to  Bob

Yeah, people are really underestimating Lithuania this year. Yes, I know they’re not going to win the contest as they could’ve last year (or at least top three ) if it hadn’t been cancelled, But I’d rather it be under estimated and be surprisingly successful than expected to do well and be disappointed when it doesn’t. You heard the crowd roar when they performed in the first semifinal. They clearly liked it and we’ll see if it Lithuania gets a similar reception in the grand final tomorrow. What is speculation about who won which semifinal based on their placing in… Read more »

Bob
Bob
3 months ago
Reply to  BadWoolfGirl

It’s not impossible! I think Sweden was second or third in their semi in 2017 despite opening the show. A show opener can do really well and I suspect Lithuania did. I also think it’s certain they will have a top 10 finish in the televote tomorrow. I can also see juries respond well to the Roop, they have incredible charisma! The only thing that might work against them is Ukraine and France coming right after in the running order.

Jofty
Jofty
3 months ago
Reply to  Bob

Agreeing with you regarding Lithuania but I would not give up on Malta just yet.

Whoareyou?
Whoareyou?
3 months ago

People saying that Italy can’t get enough points from jury, forget how Toy, a really low-quality music material, ended up doing quite well with Juries. The vocals are there, originality is there, it all looks cool and not snobbish, so I think it’s clear we are talking for winner material.

matt
matt
3 months ago
Reply to  Whoareyou?

totally agree, but I guess this idea comes out of the objectively rude treatment of recent italian entries by juries

Last edited 3 months ago by matt
Sol
Sol
3 months ago
Reply to  matt

The way juries treated Italy 2018 was deserved imo.

Alex
Alex
3 months ago
Reply to  matt

exactly! Juries snubbed great Italian entries like 2015 and 2018 so i won’t be surrpised if they snub a hard rock song like 2021. It really depends on the age groups of jury members and their type of fave music. Some people do not really like this type of music/voice.

Mark Dowd
Mark Dowd
3 months ago

I’m making a strong assumption Italy wins the televote, and wins quite well. I wonder how low the song can come in the jury rankings and still manage to get the winning margin? Good historical example from 2016: Russia 361 televote but a mere 130 from the juries. Sergey was very close to winning, but missed out narrowly by a mere 33 points.

Mark Dowd
Mark Dowd
3 months ago
Reply to  Mark Dowd
  • 43 pts…
Alex
Alex
3 months ago
Reply to  Mark Dowd

there’s no chance Italy gets only 100 points from juries. Russia 2016 had great staging but a poor song, unoriginal.

Una
Una
3 months ago

I’ve watched the official video and wow – Italy are doing something extraordinary. How can I explain it: a messy, chaotic and loud rock song translated onto stage in a distinguished and expensive and kind of posh way. The sense of freedom and power is amazing. They way Damiano interacts with everyone on stage is mindblowing. They’re rocking the world and they know it. The song was not my favourite – it isn’t my favourite now either – *but* they are totally bringing it. I am amazed at how good they look and sound. I will celebrate Italy’s victory if… Read more »