Toot toot! There’s movement with the Eurovision 2021 betting odds following Semi-Final 2 and the unveiling of the running order for the grand final. The analysis below comes from our friends at the Smarkets prediction market.
- As excitement around Eurovision 2021 reaches fever pitch, Italy find themselves favourites to win this year’s contest at a 30% chance, though the market is still wide open.
- Italy took over France (24%) late last night after the publication of the running order, with former favourites Malta dropping to 11%. Ukraine (10%), Switzerland (9%) and Iceland (5%) round out the top six.
- There is a combined chance of 89% that one of these six countries will win the contest, with the remaining 11% split between 20 other entries.
- The United Kingdom are the favourites to finish in last place for the second time in a row with a 42% chance.
- This has been the most popular year yet for Eurovision betting on the Smarkets platform, with bettors wagering over £1m across all of our markets for the first time ever.
- Smarkets Political Analyst Patrick Flynn said: “Domestically, the United Kingdom are favourites to finish last for the second year in a row. After this year’s final (assuming James Newman doesn’t massively outperform the odds), the UK will have recorded only one top ten result in the last 18 contests.” Read Patrick’s full comment below.
Eurovision 2021 odds: Italy overtakes France as favourite to win
“Our biggest ever Eurovision winner market went into overdrive last night following the second semi-final and the publication of the grand final running order in short succession. Both Italy (24th) and France (20th) landed good draws in the running order and cemented themselves as the two frontrunners in the market, with early favourite Malta collapsing in price following a sixth place draw, which will be difficult to win from.
“Though the Eurovision producers deny knowledge of the semi-final results when crafting the final running order, from this lineup it appears that Ukraine — not the odds-on favourite Malta — may have won the first semi-final. In light of this speculation, I think Malta may well now be out of contention for the win tomorrow. In the second semi-final, good draws at the end of the first half for Switzerland and Iceland suggest they may have finished as the top two in their heat.
“This year is the most open contest in the prediction markets for at least a decade, and could make for a nail-biting finish tomorrow night. With Malta out of contention in my view, it will be one of five entries (Italy, France, Ukraine, Switzerland or Iceland) that takes home the trophy.
“Domestically, the United Kingdom are favourites to finish last for the second year in a row. After this year’s final (assuming James Newman doesn’t massively outperform the odds), the UK will have recorded only one top ten result in the last 18 contests. If there is a potential upside to this, perhaps it could be that another bad result for the UK will finally spur the BBC into trying something different when selecting Eurovision entries from now on.”
For more betting market insights, follow Patrick on Twitter: @patricksmarkets