Italy Maneskin Eurovision 2021 First Rehearsal

The eagerly-anticipated grand final is almost upon us and the running order has been announced. There have been a number of rises and falls in the prediction markets after the semi-finals this week, and though this is a fast moving situation, in this article I’ll try to shed some light on who the potential contenders are ahead of tomorrow night.

To start: what can the running order tell us about the semi-final results?

Though they deny it officially, there have long been suspicions that the Eurovision producers have access to the semi-final results (or at least a strong idea of who did well and who scraped through) when crafting the running order for the final. With this in mind, based on the running order it looks like it may have been Ukraine, rather than the odds-on favourite Malta, who won the first semi-final.

With a draw of 6th in the running order, Malta’s win chance collapsed from 18% to 12% overnight, and in my view, their price should have fallen even further. Looking historically, you have to go back all the way to 2003 to find a winning song that was performed before 10th in the running order, when Sertab Erener took home the crown for Turkey. Even then, though, not only did Turkey have a lot of diaspora support (which Malta does not have), there were only three points separating the top three entries that year. It looks pretty difficult for Malta to win from such an early draw, so I think ‘Je me casse’ may be out of contention for the win (though of course all records have to be broken eventually).

In the second semi-final, based on the running order it looks like the top two may have been Switzerland and Iceland, with both landing a good draw at the end of the first half.

Who’s in contention?

I’ve spoken about Malta at length already, so if we continue on the assumption that their running order position rules them out, we are left with five other contenders.

Italy (28% chance at Smarkets; current favourites)

Given the strength of their entry and their prime slot in the running order, Italy are rightfully one of the big contenders for this year’s contest. I really like ‘Zitti e buoni’, but I have a slight worry that it might be a little divisive with the juries, despite its contemporary sound. It only takes one or two members of each country’s jury to be put off and give Italy a low rank for Måneskin to miss out on big points.

France (20% chance at Smarkets)

France has a good draw in the running order at 20th, but I think there’s a real chance they end up performing in Ukraine’s shadow, with the audience still reeling from Go_A’s energetic performance. Barbara Pravi should do well with the jury, but will the televote be the same?

Furthermore, I am always wary about France in Eurovision as they tend to underperform compared to their odds. In 2019, they were 10th in the odds and finished 16th. In 2018, they were 4th in the odds but finished 13th. In 2017, 10th and 12th. In 2016, 4th and 6th. In 2015 and 2014 they were 21st in the odds and finished 25th and 26th, respectively. So for six contests in a row, France have underperformed their position in the odds. For these reasons, I think there is too much uncertainty and potential to underperform with this entry that I wouldn’t go near a price of 20%.

Switzerland (10% chance at Smarkets)

I have to say I was rather surprised that Switzerland’s odds drifted during their performance in last night’s semi-final, as my initial concerns around the staging for ‘Tout l’Univers’ went out the window and Gjon’s Tears delivered a phenomenal vocal performance. After a low of 6% yesterday, Switzerland have rightly climbed back up to 10% with a favourable running order draw, and this should be at the very least a strong contender to top the jury vote. This entry has been my pick to win since day one, and I think Gjon’s Tears could well win the contest tomorrow and give Switzerland their first win since Celine Dion in 1988.

Ukraine (9% chance at Smarkets)

If Ukraine *did* win the first semi-final on Tuesday, it’s very likely that they won the televote. Just as importantly, though, Go_A may have also held their own with the jury. Ukraine has a lot of televoting friends in Eurovision, so should expect to end up with a pretty large televote haul on Saturday. I reckon ‘Shum’ would likely need to win the televote to have a strong shot at winning tomorrow night, but that’s definitely on the cards. Will they receive enough jury support to take them over the line, though?

Iceland (5% chance at Smarkets)

Iceland climbed up to an 11% chance during the second semi-final last night, but they have since fallen back to 5% since the release of the running order (despite getting a pretty good draw). I expect Iceland will do well, but the fact the band cannot perform live due to a positive coronavirus test really makes this unpredictable. On the one hand, the circumstances will certainly garner Daði og Gagnamagnið some sympathy votes, but on the other it could put off wavering televoters, who may not want to vote for an entry that won’t be able to pick up the trophy and perform again if they win. A 5% chance seems broadly correct.

I’ve basically made a case for a number of contenders here, which I’m sure is not what you’re looking for, so if I had to narrow it down even further, I’d say Italy or Switzerland, with Ukraine as the dark horse.

See all of Smarkets’ Eurovision odds here.

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ESCFanGA
ESCFanGA
22 days ago

Italy will definitely do extremely well in the televote (at a minimum it will come top 5 in the televote and get over 200+ televoting points). However, I think it could end up like Il Volo and Keiino and get screwed over by the juries, who will surely not respond as well to it as televoters. Also the presence of Finland could harm its chances of winning as they are both similar songs who appeal to the same demographic. France has the opposite situation in that juries will definitely love it but I’m not so sure televoters will. Also Switzerland… Read more »

Last edited 22 days ago by ESCFanGA
Vicky
Vicky
22 days ago

As it should be. Those kids are massively talented and will have a huge international succsess.

redarrow
22 days ago

Malta should win italy song you bearly understand the lyrics .

sam
sam
22 days ago
Reply to  redarrow

its in italian i think thats the point

apollo
apollo
22 days ago
Reply to  sam

It’s actually in English but their accent is so strong it sounds Italian

hoffe
hoffe
22 days ago

Fun fact about possible final results: If three out for four countries treated as favourites (Switzerland, Italy, Ukraine, France) would reach the TOP 3, it will be first time since 1995 when in the TOP 3 there won’t be any song with English lyrics. Maybe some change of trends?

Doris
Doris
22 days ago
Reply to  hoffe

Let’s hope even for the top 4 !

Anne Marie
Anne Marie
22 days ago

On an another note, the betting odds have changed significally since yesterday night. I also found the nearer the contest the more accurate the Betting odds are lol

honeybooboo
honeybooboo
22 days ago

Just putting this out there in the interests of seeing other’s views…does anyone think Cyprus could be a surprise winner? It’s been so popular in the viral charts and a huge hit in the YT viewing figures of the semi final performance. Does anything think it could win or is just too middle ground in terms of emotional impact, compared to other entries? Personally, I think it is such a great ESC performance, very modern and striking and definitely one that will be streamed and remembered post competition. I honestly don’t think it’s likely to win, but it’s been so… Read more »

honeybooboo
honeybooboo
22 days ago
Reply to  honeybooboo

I should also add, Elena being the opening act could be both a benefit and hindrance to Cyprus. A benefit because it is the opener and psychologically speaking, it’s proven that people retain information at the start and end of something, the same reason why I think San Marino will be remembered for being the final performance. However, of course, having so many other performances after you could potentially work against you, as viewers will be dazzled with so many other songs to enjoy and remember that you can be forgotten.

Hélène
Hélène
22 days ago
Reply to  honeybooboo

I think looking st the Swedish spotify list that she could be very high the televotes in Sweden, and i am also happy that we have the juries to balance that. She might have the Keeino Rasmussen vote

Last edited 22 days ago by Hélène
Paul
Paul
22 days ago

Does anyone know how the televises are being announced? Is it like in Tel Aviv or Lisbon, Kiev etc

Sophia
Sophia
22 days ago
Reply to  Paul

Probably like in Tel Aviv

Maldric
Maldric
22 days ago
Reply to  Paul

it would be like in 2019 i guess….they changed after Lisbon 2018

aroncido
aroncido
22 days ago
Reply to  Paul

I’m still holding out hope that they go back to the old scoring system 🙁

Michael Green
Michael Green
22 days ago

I wouldn’t forget Portugal either. In an uncertain year like this one, this could top5 in juries and it could be a surprise with televoting. With the last news regarding iTunes – they can do good also here. Enough for a victory? I doubted but anything can happened if the others don’t perform in points as expected.

cheska
cheska
22 days ago

the biggest wildcard here is san marino. televote, i’m sure they would crush (if say na na can end up in top 10 in televote, what more this one?! lol).

but how about the jury? would juries think of this as a radio-friendly, contemporary song that can be a banger everywhere or more of a basic, fast-food song that ppl would easily forget?

Azaad
Azaad
22 days ago
Reply to  cheska

Say na na’s televote prowess was entirely down to Serhat being famous in Turkish entertainment and thus being able to draw upon the Turkish diaspora vote.

Adrenalina rides the fine line between radio friendly club hit and fun Euro-trash so I can see juries not embracing it, especially since the song isn’t that viral.

Doris
Doris
22 days ago

Everyone is sleeping on SWEDEN :oh

Michael Green
Michael Green
22 days ago
Reply to  Doris

Hope not 🙁

esc1234
esc1234
22 days ago
Reply to  Doris

literally.they sleep. its boring.

Julia
Julia
22 days ago
Reply to  Doris

Don’t he surprised with Sweden. Going to be massive with juries and good running spot and back story to Tusse

Burger
Burger
22 days ago

I think we’re in for a roller coaster. One or two fancied songs will be popular with juries (and will do poorly with televote) one or two different songs will be popular with the televote (and get slaughtered bu juries). A couple of others are going to be middle road with both. There is probably a quarter of the songs who have a real chance; normally they need to be in the top 3 jury and televote entries, but this year I think a country in the top 5 jury and televote (and even possibly placing 4th or 5th in… Read more »

ROMAN
22 days ago

Have read all comments and I agree with most if them, however I wouldn’t be so sure in Italy, France and Ukraine as only those to win. I think Switzerland also can win the race.
Moreover, I still think (f’ck the odds) that the darkest and really strong horse here is Russia. People will definitely have a huge reaction to Manizha’s performance.
San-Marino and Malta are racing somewhere in another universe for me. Not interesting at all.

Trina
Trina
22 days ago
Reply to  ROMAN

I just went down a 1 Kanal rabbithole watching their coverage of Manizha and Eurovision, and it is so absolutely wonderful. I love the pride every time a presenter says “nasha Manizha”. The TV crew on the ground clearly adore her and her team, and she is so genuine and positive and uncensored. I don’t know that she’ll win the whole thing, but I REALLY hope she does well!

Azaad
Azaad
22 days ago
Reply to  ROMAN

I think what hurts Manizha is that I can elements of the Russian diaspora not seeing her as Russian due to her being ethnically Tajik and so her diaspora support may be weaker than that of her ethnically Russian predecessors. However, I think progressives and those who rally against fast food music, who wouldn’t normally be fans of Russia’s entries would actually like the unapologetic feminism of the song and what Manizha represents.

Una
Una
22 days ago
Reply to  Azaad

I see the opposite – Manizha’s message must be relevant to women across the former Soviet space. Her message should be much stronger than any subjective feeling towards her as a person of Tajik descent.

Also, she sings in Russian – lingua franca for tens of millions of people with shared culture due to the language factor.

And she’s accompanied on stage by more people, including *men*, and the hundred or so women on the screen. Powerful.

CookyMonzta
CookyMonzta
22 days ago

GET YOUR CALCULATORS READY! Start with 2,262, the number of televote points available this year (same as the number of jury points). Listen to the points given to each country and subtract. You will know the outcome before they announce the televote score of the last country remaining to be heard, because it will be the only points left. Add that to the country’s jury score, and you’ll be prepared minutes before the rest of the audience and viewers who didn’t break out their calculators.

Last edited 22 days ago by CookyMonzta
jotka
jotka
22 days ago
Reply to  CookyMonzta

I’ve never done this before but might will do so tonight because the tension is killing me already and it’s only noon 😀

Una
Una
22 days ago
Reply to  CookyMonzta

Fab idea.

Maldric
Maldric
22 days ago

Lets go PORTUGAL, FRANCE and ICELAND 🙂
good luck to everyone

Julia
Julia
22 days ago

I have read on another site that Switzerland had a poor performance last night during the jury show. Gjon missed his opening line and did not hold some notes, has anyone seen footage of this to see what the performance was actually like?

Patrick
Patrick
22 days ago
Reply to  Julia

Nothing to worry about! He changed the last couple of notes to go even higher. People were just surprised by it but over the tv and screens it sounded fine. He wanted to take a risk!

honeybooboo
honeybooboo
22 days ago
Reply to  Julia

I watched the Wiwibloggs live stream of the jury final show last night, and I heard Gjon singing in the background during his performance. He sounded the best I’ve heard him, practically flawless in terms of staying in key, perfectly on each note and everyone in the livestream commented on how he sounded the best ever. Vocally, he was genuinely outstanding. He definitely changed the last notes, as the other commentator mentions, to go higher, but it sounded great. Check out the wiwibloggs stream on their yt channel and skip to Gjon’s performance, if he doesn’t rank very high with… Read more »

Li b
Li b
22 days ago
Reply to  Julia

Gjon sang the high note in the end higher then it should be and it didn’t sound good, I kinda worry about him because of that..

Kim
Kim
22 days ago

France is going to struggle with televote following Lithuania and Ukraine. Italy, Ukraine and Lithuania are divisive and only 1 or 2 jury members marking low will see the jury points suffer. I think this year is so open anything could happen! Wouldn’t be surprised if a country out of the top 5 in either televote or jury vote wins as I think the points are going to be so close and no runaway winner.

Kim
Kim
22 days ago

I will be up as usual at 5 am to watch here in Australia. As it’s coming into winter here and our nights are getting cold. I’ll be rugged up in my pjs and ugg boots with a hazelnut latte and my vegemite on toast in a nest I’ve made myself on the sofa.

redarrow
22 days ago
Reply to  Kim

vote for Malta pls kim.

Samo
Samo
22 days ago

I expect top 3 to be Ukraine, France and Italy (in no particular order). Both Malta and Switzerland were slaughtered by SJB.

I think people give too much thought to Malta’s position as a sign of them not doing well in semis. Do producers even know the results? I believe they are only available to a very small number of people on the need-to-know basis. The team creating running order probably doesn’t have any reason to know them. Obviously Österdahl does, but he’s not really participating on making the running order, he just approves it when it’s done.

Doris
Doris
22 days ago
Reply to  Samo

If they have no access to the results then they would only base on betting odds so how on hell Switzerland have a better running order than Malta lol ? Malta is maybe not even in the top 3 of SF1.
AHAHA, I remember everyone saying Malta picking 1st half it’s not a big deal since it will perform 11-13th position looool.

Last edited 22 days ago by Doris
Chris Malta
Chris Malta
22 days ago
Reply to  Doris

Get a life. There are 39 countries participating yet you re always attacking Malta. Pathetic person.

Samo
Samo
22 days ago
Reply to  Doris

Why would they base it on betting odds? They base it on whatever works for the show.

redarrow
22 days ago
Reply to  Doris

doris what is this all about always talking against Malta ? i think you where thrown out of the country .

Nev
Nev
21 days ago
Reply to  Doris

The usual hate against Malta your comments are making people pity Malta

Teddie
22 days ago

If it’s France or Switzerland then next year will get a whole load of dreary bleak ballads like these. I now pray Italy wins because spectacle and emotion must prevail over dull wailings in french.

honeybooboo
honeybooboo
22 days ago
Reply to  Teddie

But France and Switzerland are literally two of the most emotive and emotional songs in the competition? So not sure how Italy winning will mean emotion has prevailed? Unless you just mean intense, frenetic, joyous emotion?

canada_piano
canada_piano
22 days ago

san marino is getting ignored. it won’t win, but it will get top 2 in the televote, mainly because of flo rida, but also just because its a banger. also people might want to vote for the underdog. top 5 finish for san marino this year

honeybooboo
honeybooboo
22 days ago
Reply to  canada_piano

I wonder though, will Flo Rida appeal to younger generations who genuinely might not be familiar with him, or haven’t heard his music in a long time? Time is so quick in the world of pop music, and Flo Rida’s popular period seemed to have slowed down after about 2013/2014, so he may provide nostalgia to adults, but perhaps not the teens? I could be wrong. Without Flo in it and the media attention he brings, the song I thing would not be standing out as much. In my view, it may get top 10 but unlikely to get top… Read more »

PP77
PP77
22 days ago
Reply to  canada_piano

Flo Rida was popular 10 years ago

Dawid
Dawid
22 days ago

Have to say, fact that we have multiple possibile outcomes instead of 1 or 2 is amazing. No more “Arcade, maaaaaybe Soldi” or “Most likely Toy, maaaybe Fuego”

Gellar
Gellar
22 days ago
Reply to  Dawid

Totally agree, I have loved how variable this year’s odds have been! Feel like tonight will be a real rollercoaster

honeybooboo
honeybooboo
22 days ago

I honestly think this is a three horse race between Italy, Malta and Switzerland, in terms of who will do well in both Juries and televote and thus stand the biggest chance of a win. Ukraine and France will do well too, but I think the former three are good overall choices, as I think France may not do as well with televote as with Juries. Ukraine, I think will do very well with televote and I think Juries too, but it may just be too ‘out there’ to appeal to all audience tastes, to win. I think it could… Read more »

mark dowd
mark dowd
22 days ago
Reply to  honeybooboo

The “Pendulum” theory possibly doesn’t apply as much with such a long gap. 2019 does seem an awful long time ago…

honeybooboo
honeybooboo
22 days ago
Reply to  mark dowd

You may be right, and it may just be a coincidence as I think people tend to just judge what they love on the night, even if the previous winner was of a similar style or tone. Although, as someone mentioned below, viewers might subconsciously be leaning towards more upbeat songs to uplift them after the last year of misery. Who knows, it will definitely be an interesting and nail-biting voting finale, that’s for sure! I’m going to get an inhaler for that portion, and I don’t even have asthma lol

Jay
Jay
22 days ago
Reply to  honeybooboo

I think Switzerland’s performance is what hurts it a bit. The video had a good story to it and was full of melancholy and hope. Yet his performance feels a bit ott and almost show offish, it’s very look at me, look at me! Rather than being filled with the same symbolism of the video and the song.

Blackcat
Blackcat
22 days ago
Reply to  Jay

Yes, you can see the guy into himself.

Doris
Doris
22 days ago

Switzerland so underrated on the betting odds when Malta is still so overrated despite the running order. How can this be possible ?

Last edited 22 days ago by Doris
Mar
Mar
22 days ago
Reply to  Doris

Maltese people are betting on their own country

Charli Cheer Up
Charli Cheer Up
22 days ago
Reply to  Mar

Same can be said for Maneskin who are San Remo 2021 winners.

Last edited 22 days ago by Charli Cheer Up
Chris Malta
Chris Malta
22 days ago
Reply to  Doris

Let Doris begin with her hateful comments against Malta. Just stay quiet and wait for tonight. You really are an empty vessel.

COLIN POWIS
COLIN POWIS
22 days ago
Reply to  Doris

Cos Malta is the original favourite and many folk are slow to recognise that they are a sinking ship that lost the TV vote to Ukraine

Chris Malta
Chris Malta
22 days ago
Reply to  COLIN POWIS

You have proof?

Mar
Mar
22 days ago

I dont understand why it is taken that France will go low on televote. Dont forget about hers serbian and polish roots, which could give her extra points from balkan and slavic countries

Berco
Berco
22 days ago
Reply to  Mar

Which voter, who will see her first time tonight, has this information?

Mar
Mar
22 days ago
Reply to  Berco

Any. If the local comentator of the show shares this information with audience during a live show – everyone knows. And Pravi is serbian word, same as Maneskin danish. I bet Maneskin get extra votes from scandinavian countries and Barbara from balkans.

Kuro Win
Kuro Win
22 days ago
Reply to  Mar

Anyway the French song leave a good first impression when you hear it for the first time, no matter where she is in the running order it hits you

nycforever
nycforever
22 days ago
Reply to  Berco

Voter that will see her first time probably won’t vote at all.

Aan Gomes Branco
Aan Gomes Branco
22 days ago
Reply to  Mar

She has serbian and persian roots, not polish?

Azaad
Azaad
22 days ago
Reply to  Mar

She doesn’t have Polish roots- I think her ancestry is ethnic French, Serbian and Iranian.

Steven
Steven
22 days ago

“while two dogs are fighting for bone, a third one runs away with it”
We all can be surprised tonight!

Charli Cheer Up
Charli Cheer Up
22 days ago
Reply to  Steven

Exactly. For me the Top 4 countries that could pull a surprise/upset victory would be: Iceland, Russia, Ukraine and San Remo. A lot of my non-ESC fan friends and families have been buzzing about them after watching the semis. These countries could pull in very high televotes on the grand-final night even if France or Italy score well on juries.

Thanos
Thanos
22 days ago

I believe it is between Italy, France and Switzerland. I can see why Switzerland can emerge as the winner, given that Italy might be slowed down by the juries and France by the televotes, but I am not sure whether Gjon will be able to come top 2 either with the juries or with the televotes. Can he win by scoring third place on both? Perhaps yes. Still though I want Italy to win!!! Anyway good Luck to everyone!

Andy
Andy
22 days ago

I don’t mind anyone winning but I sort of hope that if it’s Malta or Switzerland people don’t go wild about Ms Baptiste next year as if anything she hasn’t done any favours for either and win would be down to Destiny or Gjon

Azaad
Azaad
22 days ago
Reply to  Andy

SJB’s last bona fide success was Cyprus 2018. I think the darker colour palette made the fiery accents stand out much more, and made it seem more polished and respectable to jurors, allowing Eleni to get their fifth place even without the strongest voice.

Robert
Robert
22 days ago

Hear what you’re saying but FRANCE for me..

Jarryd
Jarryd
22 days ago

The odds are so close this year there’s little value picking apart 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc, in my opinion. It’s basically a ten-way-tie for predictions. Switzerland and Iceland (maybe Italy) are the least likely to have lopsided Jury/Televote’s as pointed out in the article, so I’d possibly put them up top. It might be that the winner comes down to “story” (like with Conchita and Jamala who were also in close years). If that’s the case, my money’s on Iceland. They were pretty much robbed of the win last year, robbed of a live performance this year, and let’s be… Read more »

Kosey
Kosey
22 days ago

My gut feeling tells me Switzerland.

Italy and Ukraine will be trashed by the juries.

France and Malta will be trashed by the televote

Switzerland might not win either the jury or the televote, but could come third in both and win overall.

Jasmine
Jasmine
22 days ago
Reply to  Kosey

I totally agree. I think Switzerland will win.

Burger
Burger
22 days ago
Reply to  Kosey

Quite possibly in the top 5 for both this year could win, it’s almost like a lottery.

Paul
Paul
22 days ago

I’m not really feeling Italy this year but it would be nice for a group to win – it’s been so long!

Jake Borg Falzon
Jake Borg Falzon
22 days ago

How have you decided that Ukraine won over Malta semi final one just because she is in the second half when these were allotted by handpicking from the contestants themselves?

Serena00
Serena00
22 days ago

But producers put Malta sixth in the running order, not 10-13th, so…

Last edited 22 days ago by Serena00
Cassandra
Cassandra
22 days ago

So many year I’ve wanted Italy to win, but not this year. I just really don’t like this song (sorry).

I really hope Gjon will win. No Swiss song has ever deserved it more. But if not, then please let it be France. I love ‘Voila’ and I will vote for it.
12 points from Switzerland.

tomtomtom
tomtomtom
22 days ago
Reply to  Cassandra

Agree re Italy. Celine Dion would disagree with your comment that “No Swiss song has ever deserved it more”

Last edited 22 days ago by tomtomtom
JulianA
JulianA
22 days ago

Italy -1
Ukraine -2
San Marino -3
Switzerland -4
….come to my comment after show will over ))

Loo
Loo
22 days ago
Reply to  JulianA

1 – Azerbaijan
2 – Italy
3 – Ukraine

Serena00
Serena00
22 days ago
Reply to  JulianA

Great top 4! I would love for Ukraine (my country) to be second, because it’s too expensive to host 🙂

Mar
Mar
22 days ago
Reply to  Serena00

I would love for Ukraine (my country) to host anyway

Charles the III
Charles the III
22 days ago

Last time we had this many countries possibly winning was 1981. UK ended up winning with only 4 points lead and least amount of 12 points a winning country ever received.
I was also determined by the last jury.
I think we’re heading towards a very tight voting session.

COLIN POWIS
COLIN POWIS
22 days ago

Excellent analysis of the Jury voting at ESC DAILY Jury Rehearsal: Vocal Assessment of all songs in the Grand Final of Eurovision 2021
————————————————————————————————–
According to them Italy did fine with the Juries .. the warning signs are here again

Charli Cheer Up
Charli Cheer Up
22 days ago

Ok why another article saying Italy is still favorite to win in less than 48 hours??..

Last edited 22 days ago by Charli Cheer Up
Nadors
Nadors
22 days ago

But Italy is still favourite to win

COLIN POWIS
COLIN POWIS
22 days ago

Good convincing analysis by Patrick , especially regarding France ; someone on another thread made a good point insomuch the post pandemic zeitgeist favours a high energy band that blows the roof off and not a ballad .. another reason for Italy winning .. It looks like Italy will indeed win the Televote and so as long as they do OK in the jury vote then they win by default .. I see they are at 4th place in the Jury betting and if that’s anywhere near the reality then they are going to win I wanted France to win… Read more »

Last edited 22 days ago by COLIN POWIS
Hélène
Hélène
22 days ago
Reply to  COLIN POWIS

We need in this pandemic something epic that hits the contemporary situation like when Conchita won. I am not sure that either Italy or France have that. France has a fantastic artist but the song might be a little to much Piaf and french stereotype. Italy is the best option. Their lyrics are good and the anger might be typical for our time. What I have against Switzerland is that it feels like some kind of vocal gymnastics and even though I speak French it is also a kind of underwhelming lyrics. It is hard to connect that to the… Read more »

Last edited 22 days ago by Hélène
Marseille
Marseille
22 days ago

I think France have consistently underperformed because their stagings have repeatedly dragged down excellent songs (J’ai cherche, Requiem, Merci, etc.). But that is not the case this year. I think that for the first time maybe since 2010, France have a complete package and Barbara deserves, at least, to be in the running for the win.
Switzerland also seems a bit undervalued in my opinion, but that might just be my own personasl bias, since I was so incredibly moved by his performance.

Azaad
Azaad
22 days ago
Reply to  Marseille

Don’t know if it’s enough for them to win this year due to the competition, but Barbara being an excellent singer, the strong yet subtle staging and the high quality of the song makes France positioned to have a top 5 result.

tomtomtom
tomtomtom
22 days ago

I would be ok with anyone except Italy. I just don’t like this type of rock music which I think is so dated – and not in a cultural way like France. I think about the average Eurovision viewer and I can’t see Italy having a broad appeal in the masses, although it will have enthusiastic support from certain groups.

Last edited 22 days ago by tomtomtom
Sale
Sale
22 days ago

Downvote me as much you want but Patrick is so baised against France, I saw his comments on other social media platforms amd he’s constantly bashing France. He even bashed her performance tonight calling it oversung, overacted etc. And may the best country win tomorrow in this hard esc season:)

COLIN POWIS
COLIN POWIS
22 days ago
Reply to  Sale

I’ve downvoted you for being a dope

Sale
Sale
22 days ago
Reply to  COLIN POWIS

Like I’d care

COLIN POWIS
COLIN POWIS
22 days ago
Reply to  Sale

You would if I dropped something heavy on you from a significant height

Robert
Robert
22 days ago
Reply to  COLIN POWIS

Leave this space, you’re not wanted here

Ieva
Ieva
22 days ago
Reply to  COLIN POWIS

Are you kidding with these kind of replies? Behave.

Josh
Josh
22 days ago

This year is very open. I disagree on one point, though. Even though Malta is in spot 6 (which perhaps indicates not winning Semi 1), I think it could be based on production. In theory, a good song should hold its own anywhere, and if one song can win so early on, Malta is the one to do it. After watching performances again, I do think Switzerland is likely to take it…and I won’t be upset as it’s been my #1 song all season!

Ellen
Ellen
22 days ago

The bookmakers are lost this year and so we are lol

I honestly have no idea about who will win the whole thing. Iceland really impressed me during the SF2 and I’m now betting on a victory for the country. But the others which are in the top 10 of the bookies could also win so I’m completely lost.

Anyway, good luck to the next winner!!

Last edited 22 days ago by Ellen
COLIN POWIS
COLIN POWIS
22 days ago
Reply to  Ellen

They were a novelty act that is now over a year old .. I bet Switzerland won both Jury and TV vote in semi 2 cos Bulgaria underperformed

Kredential
Kredential
22 days ago

I have NO idea who is going to win and if you told me to pick a country I wouldn’t be able to. A lot of songs have the potential to win but none of them have their hands firmly on the trophy so I couldn’t predict a winner with confidence. This is going to make for a very interesting and very tense show. Looking forward to it

Rob
Rob
22 days ago

I don’t believe Italy’s Zitti e Buoni is as palatable as other strong contenders. The charisma, aesthetics and rebellious nature of the song aren’t enough to secure an outpouring of Douze Points. Back in 2019, Mahmood’s ‘Soldi’ didn’t receive any points from 8 juries and at least 10 more juries gave it low scores. The televote was more friendly than the juries, earning it a second place in the televote and second place in total. I can see a similar pattern emerging here. France’s performance is more arresting and momentous than Italy’s in my taste. It could easily become the… Read more »

Giolo
Giolo
22 days ago
Reply to  Rob

Mahmood was third with the televoting, actually.
Anyway what you’re saying it’s totally possible

Denis
Denis
22 days ago
Reply to  Rob

Mahmood was more urban, to modern for a jury. It’s not the same thing at all this year. Rock is far more accessible for a jury and rock has n fact been rewarded by juries before, more so than by audience. I doubt Måneskin will do poorly with juries.

Filomena Mercurio
Filomena Mercurio
22 days ago
Reply to  Denis

So agree – Juries are by nature fickle beasts (respectfully), Mahmood deserved the win, for multiple reasons, it was urban, clearly different and he was charismatic. Italy this year is the total package, sexy, the staging is amazing, never static, the band members are always engaging, with each other as well as the audience. This is a stand out and a song that deserves to win. After a horror year that was 2020 for all of Europe, Eurovision steps up to deliver from what I can see is a well organised event that embraces all its artists. It’s time for… Read more »

Hélène
Hélène
22 days ago

No Duncan is much better than Mahmood. HMahmoid’s performance was ok but it did not have that epic feeling that a good Eurovision winner should have.

Robert
Robert
22 days ago
Reply to  Hélène

Hence why France will win

Giolo
Giolo
22 days ago
Reply to  Hélène

As an Italian, I agree that Duncan was definitely the best in 2019

Mqe
Mqe
22 days ago

This year is SO open it is exciting and mortifying at the same time 😐

Mqe
Mqe
22 days ago
Reply to  Mqe

Italy could win the televote, or Iceland perhaps even Malta or Ukraine.
France could take the jury or Switzerland or Bulgaria or someone else.

Who will come out on top is anyone’s guess. I’d be happy with quite a couple of countries this year but still fear it may go to a “compromise” winner that doesn’t really please most people. It is impossible to tell this year. I will bite off all of my nails.

Catriona Colville
Catriona Colville
22 days ago
Reply to  Mqe

Malta is a jury song. It’s televote will be awful.

COLIN POWIS
COLIN POWIS
22 days ago

It likely won jury but lost TV vote in the semi

Chris Malta
Chris Malta
22 days ago

Even if Malta sends the best song we don’t have any neighbours or diaspora of friends so we will never win. So I think it s time we do like other countries and just walk out. And let the usual countries who have hijacked the televote battle the competition by itself. If this televote will continue favouring the same countries, the Eurovision will see more countries dropping out of the contest year after year. Because it s not about the song but about the strength of the country.

Serena00
Serena00
22 days ago
Reply to  Chris Malta

You can say similar things about Portugal. Only one neighbor and no diaspora, but they still managed to win

Chris Malta
Chris Malta
22 days ago
Reply to  Serena00

But Malta is not Portugal it seems because from the first day we were first in the odds a whole crusade started against Destiny.

Serena00
Serena00
22 days ago
Reply to  Chris Malta

People will always hate on favourite, there are plenty of critical comment about Italy right now. And when Switzerland was number one in odds, lots of people complained how it’s Arcade 2.0

Serena00
Serena00
22 days ago
Reply to  Chris Malta

Also if Malta will flop in televote tonight, don’t blame the whole Europe. Blame the broadcaster that had chosen a mediocre song for Destiny, because she as an artist has a potential to be Eurovision winner

Aan Gomes Branco
Aan Gomes Branco
22 days ago
Reply to  Chris Malta

First of all: it’s tiring to see you berate other users when they say they don’t like Malta. It makes you a toxic fan. Second of all, what Serena said is true: blame the broadcaster for the choice of song. Destiny’s song last year was amazing and I loved it. I didn’t care for Je Me Casse this year, and it’s not due to Destiny, bc she is super talented. The staging didn’t help it either, let’s be honest.

Alex
Alex
22 days ago

This year is a mess that anything can happen tomorrow.
I’m not sure about anything at this point.

Last edited 22 days ago by Alex
Anhel
Anhel
22 days ago

I’m also leaning towards Switzerland, for pretty similar reasons. But I could argue (w/myself) for at least 5 other songs. Wow, it’s going to be so exciting. I’ve a feeling I might shed some tears.

Violet
Violet
22 days ago
Reply to  Anhel

I like Switzerland’s song as well and the singer’s vocals, but personally I did not like at all the staging and his weird arm movements in the air.
In my opinion it would have been better for him to perform his song behind the piano with moving images of the universe all around him (like in the beautiful official video).

Boozyfloozy69
Boozyfloozy69
22 days ago

Italy is beyond over rated…

damiansport1
damiansport1
22 days ago

After thinking more, Switzerland might be the safest pick. It’s bound to do well with both, jury and fans. Might be in TOP5 for both while Ukraine, France, Italy, Malta will struggle with one of the voting bodies. Iceland also has potential to be high with both.