It’s back! After a break in 2021 due to 2020’s cancellation, the semi-final allocation draw for Eurovision 2022 wil take place on 25 January. Fans are already going a little potty, as they analyse the pots which the semi-finalists will be drawn from.

The Eurovision 2022 semi-final allocation draw

The draw is set for Tuesday 25 January at 12:00 CET. It will be broadcast live from the Palazzo Madama e Casaforte degli Acaja (Madama Palace) in Turin. RAI has yet to announce the presenters for Eurovision itself. However, the draw will be overseen by TV hosts Carolina di Domenico and Gabriele Corsi. Mayor Ahmed Aboutaleb of Rotterdam and Mayor Stefano Lo Russo of Turin will be among the VIPs in attendance.

The draw will be livestreamed on both the official Eurovision YouTube channel and RaiPlay. Hopefully, it will give us a first taste of what we can expect from the Italians in May.

How the draw works

The big five — that’s Italy, France, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom — don’t compete in the semi-finals, so won’t be part of the main draw. However, there will be a preliminary draw to determine which semi-final each of the automatic qualifiers will get ot vote in.

The main draw will decide which semi each of the 36 remaining countries will take part in. They will be randomly picked from six different pots. These pots are created based on past historical votin patterns, calculated by Digame — the EBU’s televoting partner.

We’re back to six pots for 2022 after the number was reduced to five for 2020.

Semi-Final Allocation Pots

 
 
 
 
 
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Pot 1

  • Albania
  • Croatia
  • Montenegro
  • North Macedonia
  • Serbia
  • Slovenia

Pot 2

  • Denmark
  • Australia
  • Finland
  • Iceland
  • Norway
  • Sweden

Pot 3

  • Armenia
  • Azerbaijan
  • Georgia
  • Israel
  • Russia
  • Ukraine

Pot 4

  • Cyprus
  • Greece
  • Malta
  • Bulgaria
  • Portugal
  • San Marino

Pot 5

  • Estonia
  • Lithuania
  • Latvia
  • Moldova
  • Poland
  • Romania

Pot 6

  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Switzerland
  • Czech Republic
  • Ireland
  • Netherlands

Are you excited for the draw? Will you watch the livestream? Let us know below.

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Devito
4 months ago

I am mostly curious about how the BIG5 will be allocated this year. Will there be 3 acts from the BIG5 voting and showing off on SF-1 and then only 2 acts from the BIG5 voting and showing off on SF-2? In that case, it would make much more sense for Italy to be present on both semi-finals.

BadWoolfGirl
BadWoolfGirl
4 months ago
Reply to  Devito

It will likely be a 3-2 split with the Big five voting in the semifinals, but I don’t know Which semi will get three countries and which will get two.

ESCFanGA
ESCFanGA
4 months ago

Maybe instead of having countries being randomly picked why not have the producers decide which country sings in which semi after all of the songs are chosen? (as they did with the running order since 2013)

This would ensure that a weak song does not qualify simply because it is in a weaker semi as well as ensure that a strong song does not stay in the semi simply because of the other songs.

Sapphire
Sapphire
4 months ago

I like how the pots contain countries that are all buddy-buddy, and then there’s Pot 3 XD

John the Go
4 months ago

I feel like this shows what an interesting position Lithuania is in when it comes to qualification: while countries like Serbia are usually guaranteed to be split from at least some of its traditional “allies”, Lithuania’s support traditionally comes from Latvia, Norway, the UK and Ireland (and more recently Germany), which are advantageously spread across multiple pots and automatic qualifiers.

kir
kir
4 months ago
Reply to  John the Go

I guess the winner of Germany’s 2021 televoting was The Roop themselves rather than Lithuania as a country.The band performed live at the alternative German version of the 2020 contest (Eurovision 2020 – das deutsche Finale), won it with ‘On Fire’, thus gained extra recognition of the national audience for ‘Discoteque’.It’s unlike the pattern of the Lithuanian diaspora in the UK, Ireland, or Norway voting for the yellow-green-red flag even if it’s ‘Rain of Revolution’ representing Lithuania.

BadWoolfGirl
BadWoolfGirl
4 months ago
Reply to  John the Go

I don’t think Germany was so much for Lithuania as they were voting for the Roop. I think if the 2020 contest had happened, Germany would’ve given both sets of 12 points to Lithuania.

BadWoolfGirl
BadWoolfGirl
4 months ago

Semi Final Allocation (2008-2021) Have you ever wondered how many times each country has been sorted into the first and second semi final since they began in 2008? Well, I did this study over a year ago because I noticed certain countries were always drawn to particular semi finals year after year and it peaked my curiosity. So I painstakingly sorted the years each country (even the inactive countries) was in semi final 1 or 2 and here are the results. I should note that I negated the 2020 allocation because it was reused for 2021. Country: #/# (Semi final… Read more »

Whisker
Whisker
4 months ago
Reply to  BadWoolfGirl

Wow!

Leo
Leo
4 months ago
Reply to  BadWoolfGirl

When I did my analysis of most common combinations, I included times when nations were included in the draw but withdrew, and treated 2020 and 2021 as one contest

Darren
4 months ago

Ireland is usually thrown into a pot with Lithuania and Latvia and Poland so it’s nice to see a change up there.
Though the true change remains to be seen in the draw.

Not that we will qualify anyway.

Una
Una
4 months ago
Reply to  Darren

I made a draw *for fun* and sort of followed the 2020 draw even if that one had 5 pots (six pots of six countries as per article, drew 1-6 for SF1, then 1-6 for SF2, 7-12 for SF1, then 7-12 for SF 2, then 13-18 for SF1 and finally 13-18 SF2). I did not bother with the 1st and 2nd half. It looks like this: SF1 Serbia – Iceland – Georgia – Bulgaria – Romania – Austria – Montenegro – Finland – Russia Cyprus – Moldova – Ireland – Albania – Sweden – Armenia – Malta – Estonia –… Read more »

Turin
Turin
4 months ago

Pot 2 seems the strongest, at least from what we’ve already heard from them.

Chessguy99
4 months ago
Reply to  Turin

These are made to limit the amount of same region countries being in same semi. They also look at who historically votes for each other. It prevents all the Balkan countries being in same semi and voting for each other giving them a big edge on qualifying.

It doesn’t matter how strong a pot is. Most likely there will be three of them in each semi.

willchrisiam
willchrisiam
4 months ago
Reply to  Chessguy99

I love how it’s always the Balkan countries that people mention and never the Nordic and former USSR ones… But I guess that’s because they never reward each other and boost Sweden and Russia… Right?
smh

Chessguy99
4 months ago
Reply to  willchrisiam

The Balkans have more countries, thus more votes. Also, Sweden rarely votes heavily for their fellow Nordics, unless the entry happens to have a Swede on the songwriting team.

Turin
Turin
4 months ago
Reply to  Chessguy99

Yes I know, but what I meant was that out of all of these pots, the second one might have the biggest qualification rate – as all of them are likely to have strong entries. Not that they’d all wound up in the same semifinal.

Jo.
Jo.
4 months ago

australia vibing more nordicly than estonia

Chessguy99
4 months ago
Reply to  Jo.

They tend to vote more for Nordic countries. Having Australia in your semi is considered votes in hand by countries like Sweden and Iceland.

Licko
Licko
4 months ago
Reply to  Jo.

Estonia is a baltic country, together with Lithuania and Latvia. Not a nordic country. Nothing surprising here.

Liisa
Liisa
4 months ago
Reply to  Licko

What do you mean by nothing surprising? Seeing my country Estonia knocked out from the Nordic pot because of AUSTRALIA is honestly very strange to me… Australia is culturally nothing like the Nordics but Estonia has had lots of Nordic influence in history. I see how you love to mention the Baltic thing but it’s just a geopolitical term, which does not apply for culture because Estonians have a completely different original ancestry from Latvia and Lithuania. Btw, Estonians generally don’t identify themselves as Baltic.

Frisian esc
Frisian esc
4 months ago

Czechs finally feeling that validation as western/central european.

Lorenzo
Lorenzo
4 months ago

It was also revealed that Gabriele Corsi (Italian commentator in 2021) and Carolina Di Domenico (Italian spokesperson in 2021) will be hosts of the allocation draw

ANDREW BROWN
ANDREW BROWN
4 months ago

Hi Can someone confirm how the final will work this year. 5 finalists already 10 from each semi. So who will be country 26? and how will they be selected or is the final 25?

ales
ales
4 months ago
Reply to  ANDREW BROWN

only 25 will be in the final

XCF
XCF
4 months ago
Reply to  ANDREW BROWN

There will be 25 countries in the final this year, 10 from each semifinal and then the big-5.

Meckie
Meckie
4 months ago
Reply to  ANDREW BROWN

25 countries in Final like at ESC 2011.

John
John
4 months ago

I haven’t thought of this in a while. Because one of the Big 5 won, it means the Final this year will only have 25 countries?

Efraim
Efraim
4 months ago
Reply to  John

Likely. It was that way in Düsseldorf 2011, when Germany was hosting and Italy was returning.

tomatoman
tomatoman
4 months ago
Reply to  John

Thats very good, 25 is enough, because most watchers fall asleep before the 20th song…

GojoSatoru
GojoSatoru
4 months ago
Reply to  John

Most likely 25, indeed. However, if the USA will be invited, it will be 26 entries in the final.

finnished
finnished
4 months ago

Can’t wait for the draw and hear people crying in the comments that country X is a 100% NQ while not knowing anything about the entry of the country in question

Last edited 4 months ago by finnished
Leo
Leo
4 months ago
Reply to  finnished

2018 heat 1 had one of the best ever qualification lists even though the countries had only 11 top 10 places between them in the previous 10 years (3 from Estonia, 2 from Bulgaria and Israel, 1 each from Albania, Austria, Ireland and Lithuania), and only 4 in the top 5 (2 from Bulgaria, Conchita’s win one of the 2 exceptions ) in this period. That meant that the 10 countries between them had fewer top 5 places than Azerbaijan alone, one of the nations they eliminated, over the same period! And yet 3 of them placed in that year’s… Read more »

hhhhurricane
hhhhurricane
4 months ago

the slight deviations from a correct alphabetical order are so obnoxious lol, but at least it’s geographically consistent for once

and the fact that they kicked estonia out of the nordic block in favor of australia is hilarious xD

Efraim
Efraim
4 months ago
Reply to  hhhhurricane

Poor Estonia just wants to be Nordic, but nobody will let them…
(Shout out to any other Scandinavia and the World fan that might be in here)

BadWoolfGirl
BadWoolfGirl
4 months ago
Reply to  Efraim

To be fair, it’s also occurring joke in Hetalia.

Thomas Sturley
4 months ago
Reply to  BadWoolfGirl

We don’t talk about HETALIA thank you.

BadWoolfGirl
BadWoolfGirl
4 months ago
Reply to  Thomas Sturley

Well, I actually got into Eurovision because of Hetalia. Not because the show itself mentioned Eurovision (It doesn’t), but because I saw fan recaps of Eurovision songs by years using fan art of the European Hetalia characters to illustrate the song snippets.

Whisker
Whisker
4 months ago
Reply to  Efraim

Estonia *is* a Nordic country.

Liisa
Liisa
4 months ago
Reply to  hhhhurricane

Estonia: centuries under Swedish, Danish occupation, same roots with Finns.
Australia: never any kind of connection or cultural influence from the Nordics.
The producers: let’s put Australia in the Nordic pot instead of Estonia!

Chessguy99
4 months ago
Reply to  Liisa

They look at voting tendency. Australia seems to favor the Nordic countries. Estonia seems to favor their immediate Baltic neighbors.

Liisa
Liisa
4 months ago
Reply to  Chessguy99

Not really. Samanta Tina got only 1 point from Estonia.

Chessguy99
4 months ago
Reply to  Liisa

Only three countries gave her televote points.

Last edited 4 months ago by Chessguy99
Liisa
Liisa
4 months ago
Reply to  Chessguy99

Estonian televoters don’t prefer Latvia/Lithuania over the Nordics. Finland almost always wins Estonian televote and there are very few years when Estonia doesn’t give points to the Nordics. Estonia just doesn’t reveive back so much points from the Nordics as it gives to them.

Whisker
Whisker
4 months ago
Reply to  Liisa

Lucky Samanta Tina.

Leo
Leo
4 months ago

Will they reveal slogan and the logo on that day?
Because as far as I remember both Sweden and Ukraine did the same when they were hosting.

Last edited 4 months ago by Leo
Leo
Leo
4 months ago

I have been privately compiling what have been the most common match-ups, and, whilst I haven’t finished yet, I have lots of observations: * The most common, which have occurred 100% of the time, include Australia & Slovenia, Iceland & Czech, and Portugal & Czech *really common ones are Croatia & Lithuania, Iceland & Portugal and Greece & Finland. The latter has been fought every year since 2010! * Also Ireland – Lithuania and Israel, Israel – Romania, Albania – Latvia, Finland – Iceland, Finland – Armenia, Armenia – Azerbaijan, Austria – Ireland, Estonia – Moldova and Netherlands-Estonia have been… Read more »

Jake Dallas
Jake Dallas
4 months ago
Reply to  Leo

Bulgaria and Russia were drawn together in 2017 but Russia withdrew, so technically they have never been in the same semi final. Same for Czech Republic and Ukraine in 2019.

Something I am curious about is whether or not Greece and Norway will be drawn in the same semi final, considering Amanda Tenfjord. They haven’t been drawn together since 2014 but a draw is a draw. Also, she could have a showdown with Elsie Bay if she wins MGP since their styles aren’t a million miles apart.

Leo
Leo
4 months ago
Reply to  Jake Dallas

You mean Finland, not Czech (who Ukraine fought in 2008 as well), but I am aware of what happened with Russia in 2017 and Ukraine in 2019, but, as they were in the draw, I count them. But I do hope that they face properly this year. It would be interesting for Czech, Greece AND Norway in the same heat, and also wonder for Armenia, though, sadly, other acts have been linked behind Athena’s back, even though she would be the natural choice as my 2020 winner (an opinion I have often expressed very strongly).

Last edited 4 months ago by Leo
Yasi
Yasi
4 months ago
Reply to  Leo

Finland and Ukraine as well. They’ve never been together. Could have been in 2019, but we all know what happened with Ukraine.
Australia and Austria could be confusing to viewers.

Leo
Leo
4 months ago
Reply to  Yasi

It would be but it’s a common and hilarious meme, and Slovakia and Slovenia were in the same heat on 3 out of 4 occasions.

Hrvatska
Hrvatska
4 months ago

I have the impression that, apart from cosmetic changes, I see the same as in 2021