As Eurovision week kicks off, here are the biggest changes in the semi-final one odds since the start of rehearsals. You can visit Smarkets to see the latest qualification chances.
Eurovision 2022: Semi-Final 1 odds update before the jury show
Qualification chance: 92% (+17) / Final win chance: 0.5% (-0.1)
Portugal’s Maro impressed me the most out of any of the first semi-finalists in rehearsals, so it’s understandable that her qualification chance rose so heavily. With some intimate staging featuring Maro and her backing singers arranged in a circle (the one that tested positive for Covid didn’t feature in the second and third takes, which opened up the staging much more for viewers) and some gorgeous smoke-filled low angle shots, ‘Saudade, saudade’ comes across really well on screen. Portugal still feels like a dark horse and could go far.
Qualification chance: 90% (+11) / Final win chance: 0.2% (-0.1)
Armenia brought the biggest prop of all to rehearsals, with Rosa Linn performing in a paper-filled bedroom. Without giving too many details, she rips off parts of the wall throughout the song, which is a nice little bit of staging (though a few cues were missed in rehearsals). Given its last spot in the running order, its memorable staging and Rosa Linn’s strong vocals, this should sail through to Saturday’s final.
Qualification chance: 55% (+10) / Final win chance: 0.1% (-0.1)
Latvia found themselves on the better side of the qualification borderline after their energetic second rehearsal. Citi Zēni didn’t bring anything we haven’t seen from them before, but they did a decent job nonetheless. With Albania and Lithuania around them faltering a bit in the odds, ‘Eat Your Salad’ has a better chance of standing out early in the running order. Latvia’s jury score remains a big question mark, however.
View this post on Instagram
Qualification chance: 46% (-15) / Final win chance: 0.1% (-0.4)
Switzerland’s qualification chance is now closer to where it probably should have been all along, despite what I thought was a decent rehearsal. ‘Boys Do Cry’ has some nice staging elements but remains a televote risk. The question is whether Switzerland’s jury score is enough to take them over the line.
Qualification chance: 35% (-11) / Final win chance: 0.1% (-)
Lithuania’s staging plans seem to have been hindered by the broken kinetic sun and this was reflected by changes in the odds. You could see in rehearsals that Monika Liu didn’t appear as happy or confident as usual, but hopefully she is back to her full self by tomorrow. ‘Sentimentai’ shouldn’t be ruled out for a qualification spot by any means, but staging issues mean Lithuania’s route to the final got a little bit harder over the last week or so.
Qualification chance: 75% (-8) / Final win chance: 0.1% (-0.1)
Albania’s staging wasn’t as strong as we expected and certainly needs some tidying up, but they sadly ended up bearing the brunt of people’s criticisms over the stage itself given that Ronela Hajati was the first artist to rehearse. I don’t think Albania’s qualification chance is particularly in doubt and the odds have perhaps overreacted a little given the strength of the song and the number of televoting friends Albania has in this semi-final, but their ceiling for the final is lower than it once was.
Patrick Flynn is a Politics Analyst at Smarkets. You can follow him on Twitter @patrickjfl.
Which artists have grown the most with you? Which 10 acts do you think will make it through? Let us know in the comments box below.