Photo: EBU / Nathan Reinds

As Eurovision week kicks off, here are the biggest changes in the semi-final one odds since the start of rehearsals. You can visit Smarkets to see the latest qualification chances

Eurovision 2022: Semi-Final 1 odds update before the jury show

Biggest rises

Portugal

Qualification chance: 92% (+17) / Final win chance: 0.5% (-0.1)

Portugal’s Maro impressed me the most out of any of the first semi-finalists in rehearsals, so it’s understandable that her qualification chance rose so heavily. With some intimate staging featuring Maro and her backing singers arranged in a circle (the one that tested positive for Covid didn’t feature in the second and third takes, which opened up the staging much more for viewers) and some gorgeous smoke-filled low angle shots, ‘Saudade, saudade’ comes across really well on screen. Portugal still feels like a dark horse and could go far.

Armenia

Qualification chance: 90% (+11) / Final win chance: 0.2% (-0.1)

Armenia brought the biggest prop of all to rehearsals, with Rosa Linn performing in a paper-filled bedroom. Without giving too many details, she rips off parts of the wall throughout the song, which is a nice little bit of staging (though a few cues were missed in rehearsals). Given its last spot in the running order, its memorable staging and Rosa Linn’s strong vocals, this should sail through to Saturday’s final.

Latvia

Qualification chance: 55% (+10) / Final win chance: 0.1% (-0.1)

Latvia found themselves on the better side of the qualification borderline after their energetic second rehearsal. Citi Zēni didn’t bring anything we haven’t seen from them before, but they did a decent job nonetheless. With Albania and Lithuania around them faltering a bit in the odds, ‘Eat Your Salad’ has a better chance of standing out early in the running order. Latvia’s jury score remains a big question mark, however.

 
 
 
 
 
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Biggest falls

Switzerland

Qualification chance: 46% (-15) / Final win chance: 0.1% (-0.4)

Switzerland’s qualification chance is now closer to where it probably should have been all along, despite what I thought was a decent rehearsal. ‘Boys Do Cry’ has some nice staging elements but remains a televote risk. The question is whether Switzerland’s jury score is enough to take them over the line.

Lithuania

Qualification chance: 35% (-11) / Final win chance: 0.1% (-)

Lithuania’s staging plans seem to have been hindered by the broken kinetic sun and this was reflected by changes in the odds. You could see in rehearsals that Monika Liu didn’t appear as happy or confident as usual, but hopefully she is back to her full self by tomorrow. ‘Sentimentai’ shouldn’t be ruled out for a qualification spot by any means, but staging issues mean Lithuania’s route to the final got a little bit harder over the last week or so.

Albania

Qualification chance: 75% (-8) / Final win chance: 0.1% (-0.1)

Albania’s staging wasn’t as strong as we expected and certainly needs some tidying up, but they sadly ended up bearing the brunt of people’s criticisms over the stage itself given that Ronela Hajati was the first artist to rehearse. I don’t think Albania’s qualification chance is particularly in doubt and the odds have perhaps overreacted a little given the strength of the song and the number of televoting friends Albania has in this semi-final, but their ceiling for the final is lower than it once was.

Patrick Flynn is a Politics Analyst at Smarkets. You can follow him on Twitter @patrickjfl.

Which artists have grown the most with you? Which 10 acts do you think will make it through? Let us know in the comments box below. 

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John Brennan
John Brennan
4 months ago

Portugal is by far the best one.

Henrik
4 months ago

I feel like ukraine got most votes then greece then norway then the netherlands am i right?

Henrik
4 months ago

I fell like ukraine got most votes then greece then norway and then the netherlands am i right?

BadWoolfGirl
BadWoolfGirl
4 months ago

Jokes on the odds. Switzerland and Lithuania qualified last night.

Maldric
Maldric
4 months ago

My dear portuguese friends what have you done to your national selection? Im gonna vote for you again this year! 🙂
Im with saudade saudade in the 1st semi final
Go!

Zoran. dordevic
Zoran. dordevic
4 months ago

MARO – Saudade saudade. Due to the number of musicians around the world who love the song, and ESC contestants, I believe that Portugal will win the jury.
Due to the impact she had on Spotify in Portugal and on YouTube in Spain (where the NF was broadcast), she could also win televoting. MARO was a complete stranger but in a few days she managed to surpass two Portuguese stars who have millions of fans in the NF.
Good luck to everyone.

Tobi with an I
Tobi with an I
4 months ago

Countrys that are Qualify for sure in my opinion are:
Ukraine, Portugal, The Netherlands, Greece, Norway, Armenia.

For all the others, im not really sure.

Go Scandinavia
4 months ago
Reply to  Tobi with an I

I agree

silver
silver
4 months ago

Good luck to all of the participating countries tonight and may the best songs & performances qualify.

Thomas21
Thomas21
4 months ago

The Albanian woman looks a bit frightening. I would change the street side when seeing her at night.

Tom
Tom
4 months ago
Reply to  Thomas21

Super agressive imho

Heurve
Heurve
4 months ago
Reply to  Tom

Whenever a woman is strong and bold, she’s accused of being frightening, hysterical and sometimes worse than that altogether. She’s clearly not my cup of tea either, but come on…

noone
noone
4 months ago

Definitely qualifying are Ukraine, Norway, Latvia, Albania and Moldova. The rest is really up in air. I hope for Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia, Armenia and Austria.

nycforever
nycforever
4 months ago

Ukraine, Greece, Netherlands, Norway and Portugal will definitely qualify. Concerning other countries it’s really a competition between them. Also interesting that after yesterdays jury show Italy again improved much in the odds and is 2nd again.

Hello hi
Hello hi
4 months ago

Deserved qualifiers based on what I’ve seen so far
Iceland
Greece
Portugal
Netherlands
Ukraine
Albania
Armenia
Switzerland
Lithuania
Norway (hate to say it)

Semi final winner should be Greece . The opening of the live performance is simple and fantastic

Michael crosse
Michael crosse
4 months ago
Reply to  Hello hi

Near enough you might enter a song yourself seeing as you know more or less what it takes

Unanimous
4 months ago

My prediction for 2022 edition: Ukraine will win and BBC will be the hosting broadcast in London 2023.
P.S. I really don’t want this to happen

Unanimous
4 months ago
Reply to  Unanimous

And tonight I’m rooting for Portugal, Austria and Slovenia. Don’t care for others.

Hello hi
Hello hi
4 months ago
Reply to  Unanimous

I can see this happening.

noone
noone
4 months ago
Reply to  Unanimous

Spain already said it’s ready to host. Anyway, I think it’s probably gonna be Germany or Sweden.

pastel de nata
pastel de nata
4 months ago
Reply to  noone

Germany?! Is that a typo?

Hans
Hans
4 months ago
Reply to  noone

Germany, really?

Emily
Emily
4 months ago
Reply to  Unanimous

If UK win, host city would be Manchester most probably – the production office is based there, AJ will present our 12 points from there on Saturday etc etc…

Elfi
Elfi
4 months ago

My Qualifiers(mix of what i want with what i think may happen):
Ukraine
Norway
Greece
Portugal
Netherlands
Albania
Armenia
Denmark
Lithuania
Moldava

Heurve
Heurve
4 months ago

I love the Portuguese entry this year. Simple, deep, human…

KLINE
KLINE
4 months ago

Three countries I really like to see in the final: Lithuania, Latvia, Slovenia (only one or two might qualify though)
Three that i don’t care for at all: Albania, Greece, Armenia (they will all qualify, though)
Such is the beauty of Eurovision – opinions differ – I know!!!

CookyMonzta
CookyMonzta
4 months ago

I hope nobody is singing at a lower key this time around. If their performance doesn’t require them to move around too much, then they can sing the song on stage at the key in which you recorded it. To sing at a lower key diminishes the challenge that they gave themselves when they were in the studio, and I usually penalize anyone on observation who sets their music and vocals at a lower key than what they recorded.

CookyMonzta
CookyMonzta
4 months ago
Reply to  CookyMonzta

Errata…

“…then they can sing the song on stage at the key in which they recorded it.”

Rantik
Rantik
4 months ago

I really doubt about Latvia’s qualification. Will the jury vote for it? Definitely not, it means they need a huge support from the public, like 100+ points, is it possible with the second running order? I don’t think so.
And I still hope that Monika will qualify, the jury could save her

Tom
Tom
4 months ago
Reply to  Rantik

Justice for Monika!

COLIN POWIS
COLIN POWIS
4 months ago

Will Ukraine really win the tele-vote in the semi finals when a more dedicated eurovision fans will be watching ?

KLINE
KLINE
4 months ago

This is not my personal favourites, but predictions.
For one I think Austria and Albania will be inn for a shock. They may qualify but both will be a borderlines.
Q (random order: Netherlands, Norway, Latvia, Greece, Slovenia (!), Switzerland, Albania, Armenia, Portugal, Ukraine
NQ: Austria, Bulgaria, Iceland, Denmark, Croatia, Lithuania

KLINE
KLINE
4 months ago
Reply to  KLINE

Forgot Moldovia (NQ)

KuhKatz
KuhKatz
4 months ago

What I want:
Switzerland (my country)
Slovenia
Ukraine
Netherlands
Moldova
Portugal
Croatia
Austria
Iceland
Greece
Norway

What I expect:
Albania
Ukraine
Netherlands
Moldova
Portugal
Austria
Iceland (either this or Lithuania)
Greece
Norway
Armenia

Milan
Milan
4 months ago
Reply to  KuhKatz

I’m glad you were wrong about Switzerland 🙂

just an esc fan
just an esc fan
4 months ago

My predictions in random order (last year I had 9/10 in the first semi so let’s see how I’m gonna do now!).

Ukraine
Greece
Albania
Lithuania
Portugal
Armenia
Norway
Netherlands
Latvia
Moldova

Voting for Portugal, Lithuania and Iceland

Sir Stevia
Sir Stevia
4 months ago

I’ve got the same 10 and I also got 9\10 in SF1 last year : )
Who’d you get wrong last year? I put Croatia in and Israel out.

just an esc fan
just an esc fan
4 months ago
Reply to  Sir Stevia

same! i thought Israel was definitely out and Croatia in!

Sir Stevia
Sir Stevia
4 months ago

Dang we share the same brain boo haha : D

Robbie
Robbie
4 months ago

Can’t believe it’s Eurovision time again and can’t believe this will be my 40th Eurovision : I started watching when Nicole won but the first one I remember is ‘83 with Corinne Hermes. I’ve been lucky enough to have attended 15 finals, my favourite one without doubt was Helsinki, just the best atmosphere. Am I a super fan – absolutely not! Have I ever predicted a winner – absolutely not! Do I know who’s going to qualify – absolutely not! I just love the excitement, the build up and the surprises and best of all, I’ve made friends for life… Read more »

KLINE
KLINE
4 months ago
Reply to  Robbie

Lovely post!

Robbie
Robbie
4 months ago
Reply to  KLINE

It’s so true – some crazy, whacky, loyal friends from all over Europe and beyond simply because of a shared love of a song contest : now that it worth celebrating!! X

Heurve
Heurve
4 months ago
Reply to  Robbie

“Si la vie est cadeau” 😉 This will be my… 34th! Started with Céline Dion in 1988 and only missed one edition (2010, I was on a trip to Canada). Never attended a show though. Predicted the winner just once (Loreen). So, happy Eurovision 2022 to you too!

Robbie
Robbie
4 months ago
Reply to  Heurve

I never even predicted Loreen lol! Who’s your fave this year?

Heurve
Heurve
4 months ago
Reply to  Robbie

Well… I’d say Italy first, then the Netherlands, France the UK and Portugal. But there are other strong contenders like Sweden, Spain and Ukraine.

ete sech
ete sech
4 months ago

Idk why almost everybody here is taking for granted that Norway will make it to the final. It’s got a mixed reception elsewhere and I seriously doubt juries will love them :/

AllThingsNordic.eu
4 months ago

Although we can’t make predictions, really, let me give you my feeling which countries are to qualify. It’s a gut feeling that is sometimes biased by preferences (Although I try to contain it).

QUALIFYING: Ukraine, Greece, Netherlands, Norway, Armenia, Switzerland
MAYBE NOT: Albania, Moldova
MAYBE YES: Lithuania, Austria, Iceland, Slovenia
NOT QUALIFYING: Bulgaria, Denmark,Croatia, Latvia, Portugal

Ukraine stan
Ukraine stan
4 months ago

Unrelated but the stage appears to be working again, not sure if this means we can use the pre-malfunction choreo since there’s little to no rehearsal time. But the LED’s should be usable.

Sir Stevia
Sir Stevia
4 months ago

OK these are my finalized SF1 predictions! : ) Warning this will be long sorry haha. 1. Ukraine: I think either Greece or Ukraine will win this semifinal. My pick is Ukraine because I am more confident they will have strong appeal from both sides. 2. Greece: Greece was deemed as the same boat as Netherlands in terms of jury strength and potential winning chances, however after the semifinal I feel Greece has risen above Netherlands in nearly every aspect. This will draw a lot of people to it because how amazing of a singer Amanda is and the way… Read more »

Poet
Poet
4 months ago

Latvia and Norway stand out in the semi final 1. Both are second – just from different angles. 🙂

Licko
Licko
4 months ago

Voting for S10, Ronela, and LPS tomorrow

Jo.
Jo.
4 months ago

San Diodato,
you’ve made the sun move
can you please make our girl Monika qualify
amen

KarmaLeon
KarmaLeon
4 months ago

Tommorow (from France) i ll vote for ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? and ??
And if youre asking why its just obvious 😉

KarmaLeon
KarmaLeon
4 months ago
Reply to  KarmaLeon

I put the flags but it doesnt work…. Lithuania, Moldova, Portugal, Ukraine, Thé Netherlands and Iceland 🙂

Frenchtoast
Frenchtoast
4 months ago
Reply to  KarmaLeon

I need to taste this Thé Netherlands

Belle
Belle
4 months ago

Unrelated but if anybody could help this american gal out a bit it would be great. Peacock is streaming esc but only on premium – which really sucks. If yall know any broadcasters that don’t geoblock let me know!

Jonas
Jonas
4 months ago
Reply to  Belle

I don’t know for sure, but I’ve heard people say SVT and RTÉ.

BadWoolfGirl
BadWoolfGirl
4 months ago
Reply to  Jonas

I’ve used SVT and RTE in the past because they are playable in the US. RTE usually posts the show the day after though, so if you want an immediate replay, go with Sweden, though bear the Swedish commentary.

For Peacock, I would temporarily upgrade to Premium for Eurovision, but put it back to the free tier before the pay period kicks in.

Essie
Essie
4 months ago
Reply to  Belle

I watched the Swedish tv stream last year from the US, it was good quality with commentary in English. Not sure if it will be available again this year.
This podcast site has some good info
https://www.eurowhat.com/watch

Belle
Belle
4 months ago
Reply to  Essie

Thanks for the help!

CookyMonzta
CookyMonzta
4 months ago
Reply to  Belle

Try watching from SVT. I used them when the geoblock went up on YouTube. Now I have a VPN.

CookyMonzta
CookyMonzta
4 months ago
Reply to  Belle

Better yet, go to svtplay.se and type ‘Eurovision Song Contest’ in the search bar. Sweden also has an SVT Play app in GooglePlay for Android. I don’t know if they have it for Apple iOS.

Colin
Colin
4 months ago

The thing with betting odds is that they usually have the right six-seven songs on top (even if not always in the same order), but the borderline places usually tend to miss one or two each time. So, I expect, and hope that they have it right with Ukraine, Greece, Norway, Netherlands, Armenia, and Portugal. 🙂 Albania is almost a safe bet too. The *only* chance is if people find it too messy, while not punchy enough, and Latvia takes the spotlight right after (their color grading is really memorable). My prediction now is: ALBANIA ARMENIA AUSTRIA GREECE LATVIA LITHUANIA… Read more »

Jonas
Jonas
4 months ago
Reply to  Colin

I’m sorry, I can’t allow eleven wishes. Ten only.

Colin
Colin
4 months ago
Reply to  Jonas

Tenth place would depend on the performance. Albania is particularly an entry highly dependent on its energy on stage. If Ronela nails it perfectly, I might put her as my 10th in the Q category. If not, Slovenia takes it instead.

Jonas
Jonas
4 months ago
Reply to  Colin

Okay, that is reasonable. Make sure to cast your wish before the wishing lines close.

Essie
Essie
4 months ago
Reply to  Jonas

Hey, this is radio station W S K E E
We’re takin’ calls on the wish line
Making all your wacky wishes come true
Hello
I wish I was little bit taller
I wish I was a baller
I wish I had a girl who looked good
I would call her
I wish I had a rabbit in a hat with a bat
And a six four Impala

Jghtl
4 months ago

I really hope Latvia qualifies, I love Citi Zeni and Latvia is one of my favorite countries at eurovision.

Jofty
Jofty
4 months ago

Well it won’t be Ukraine this year surely!

Shift_key
Shift_key
4 months ago

The most shocking result tomorrow would be Bulgaria advancing to the final. Considering it’s the only rock song, chances are higher than predicted.

Colin
Colin
4 months ago
Reply to  Shift_key

Denmark is also a rock song. Soft rock, but so is Bulgaria. Also, Moldova claims to be rock in their lyrics (but it’s not rock).

Im so fab
Im so fab
4 months ago

Sure qualifiers

Ukraine (possible SF winner)
Netherlands
Portugal
Greece (possible SF winner)
Norway (possible SF winner)
Armenia

Qualification more possible than NQ

Albania
Moldova

Unknown

Latvia
Lithuania :'(
Bulgaria
Iceland

NQ more possible than qualification

Croatia
Denmark
Austria

See you next year

Switzerland
Slovenia

Efthymios
Efthymios
4 months ago
Reply to  Im so fab

Lmao, see you next year. Why is Slovenia there… :’))

pmsbm
pmsbm
4 months ago
Reply to  Im so fab

Mmm… The only two that really suck tonight were Croatia and Denmark… I wouldn’t put anyone else on the next year bin yet… And certainly not those two who had strong showings…

ete sech
ete sech
4 months ago
Reply to  Im so fab

LMAO Norway is a borderline qualifier at best

Eddy
Eddy
4 months ago

Prediction:

  1. Greece
  2. Norway
  3. Ukraine
  4. Portugal
  5. Netherlands
  6. Armenia
  7. Albania
  8. Latvia
  9. Iceland
  10. Austria.

The juries might get Switzerland or Bulgaria instead of Austria inside the Top 10 though.

Jonas
Jonas
4 months ago

Portugal tomorrow, Ireland on Thursday.

Benjamin K
4 months ago

I am french and all my favorites (except Austria) are on the 2nd semi, I think I will keep my money to vote for the final

Jghtl
4 months ago
Reply to  Benjamin K

Smart decision

Nomo nomo
Nomo nomo
4 months ago

If you saw Albania’s jury show on twitter, you’d see that the performance is absolutely ICONIC. They may as well win the televote.

Benjamin K
4 months ago

My odds:
Ukraine Norway 100%
Greece Netherlands Portugal Moldova 80%
Albania Armenia Austria 60%
Lithuania Slovenia Switzeland 50%
Latvia Denmark Iceland 30%
Croatia Bulgaria 10%

For me Armenia Albania or Greece could be shocking NQ, and Slovenia Denmark or Iceland surprise Q

Im so fab
Im so fab
4 months ago
Reply to  Benjamin K

Lmao, that’s a horrible prediction.

Benjamin K
4 months ago
Reply to  Im so fab

? Do you think Coratia and Bulgaria will actually being qualified ?

Benjamin K
4 months ago
Reply to  Im so fab

I had 8/10 and Albania out so ????

KLINE
KLINE
4 months ago
Reply to  Benjamin K

Interesting … and I like it!

Nikki
Nikki
4 months ago
Reply to  Benjamin K

Greece will qualify, they always do 🙂

Jo.
Jo.
4 months ago

can’t wait for Diodato’s performance tho

BadWoolfGirl
BadWoolfGirl
4 months ago
Reply to  Jo.

I can’t wait either. He was so robbed by the cancellation in 2020, and now he finally gets his chance to perform at Eurovision.

Emily
Emily
4 months ago
Reply to  BadWoolfGirl

Really hope BBC shows Diodato (and not some unnecessary pre-recorded insert)

BadWoolfGirl
BadWoolfGirl
4 months ago

I can’t believe Eurovision actually starts tomorrow! It just seemed like yesterday when the national final season finished up and I thought it would be a long wait between then and now, but time flew by quickly. I can’t wait for this week! I will admit I’m going to be nervous during the qualifier announcement because there is one country I really want to see make the final, but I am nervous it might not make it–Lithuania. Now, I know it’s not the only vulnerable country in this semi final, but it’s the one I am championing for. I admit… Read more »

ete sech
ete sech
4 months ago
Reply to  BadWoolfGirl

I feel you sis, I really hope a miracle happens and Lithuania makes it through. Fingers crossed! 🙂

Jesper Hjellnes
Jesper Hjellnes
4 months ago

I would say Armenia, Greece, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal and Ukraine are all sure qualifiers. Lithuania and Albania pretty sure about them as well. But then I find it hard to choose my last two qualifiers. Latvia and Moldova are both fun songs that could do well in the televote, Iceland could be very magical on stage, and Austria would be a safe finalist if Pia Maria’s vocals are good. I’m so excited for tomorrow!

Jake Dallas
Jake Dallas
4 months ago

I think it is time to finally share my prediction for this semi final along with reasoning. Qualifiers Albania – Aside from a bumpy road during rehearsals, this has been a sure qualifier for me from day one. The song has all the elements of a good ethnic bop and Ronela performs it with a lot of energy. Latvia – Reminds me of Iceland 2014, which is a good thing. Again, they are giving it socks on stage and I believe that they can pull through, even from the second spot. It’s just so much fun. Ukraine – All I’ll… Read more »

pmsbm
pmsbm
4 months ago
Reply to  Jake Dallas

After being at the arena tonight I would say Denmark out (it’s really too messy, nothing’s gonna save it really) and Austria (because Pia Maria actually delivered) or Lithuania (because Monika was, as always, magic, in.

Jake Dallas
Jake Dallas
4 months ago
Reply to  pmsbm

Yeah. I always end up second guessing the closer I get to a semi final. I woke up this morning and now think that Lithuania and Austria will qualify instead of Denmark and Iceland.

Lambert
Lambert
4 months ago

Glad that my two personal favorites, Armenia and especially Portugal, are moving up the ranks. Also glad that Poland is in a free fall.

Im so fab
Im so fab
4 months ago
Reply to  Lambert

Of course they are. This happens when you bring dancing zombies and cringey effects on stage…

Jo.
Jo.
4 months ago

My prediction is Ukraine, Greece, Netherlands, Norway, Armenia, Iceland, Lithuania, Austria, Albania and Portugal.

Efthymios
Efthymios
4 months ago

Alright, here’s my personal and possibly actual qualifiers of this semi-final:

-My personal qualifiers (random order):
Iceland
Greece
Latvia
The Netherlands
Slovenia
Lithuania
Armenia
Norway
Portugal
Ukraine

-Actual qualifiers
Ukraine
Albania
Latvia
Greece
The Netherlands
Armenia
Portugal
Norway
Iceland
Moldova or Lithuania (difficult to choose but I hope for the later)

Anastasis
Anastasis
4 months ago

Jury winner Greece and televote winner Ukraine or Norway maybe?

My prediction for qualifiers: Greece, Ukraine, Norway, Portugal, Netherlands, Armenia, Albania, Latvia, Lithuania, and one of Austria, Moldova and Iceland.