Semi-Final 2 of Eurovision 2022 unfolds on Thursday evening. Ahead of that it’s time to take a look at the biggest changes in the semi-final odds since the start of rehearsals…
Biggest rises
Czech Republic
Qualification chance: 78% (+17) / Final win chance: 0.2% (-)
We Are Domi had one of the best rehearsals from the semi-final, and their qualification chance rose significantly. Any concerns I had about vocals pretty much went out the door as lead singer Dominika delivered a confident and assured performance alongside some really good staging. The band were very happy with their rehearsal and rightly so. I expect this will sail through to the final.
San Marino
Qualification chance: 40% (+10) / Final win chance: 0.2% (-0.2)
Achille Lauro was another standout from the second semi-final rehearsals. He brought a sense of fun, energy and showmanship with one of the most memorable stage shows of the contest. It would be a big shame if this doesn’t make it to Saturday’s final.
Serbia
Qualification chance: 83% (+10) / Final win chance: 0.7% (-)
Despite Serbia being hindered somewhat by the broken kinetic sun, the addition of some on-screen lyrics should help broaden the appeal of ‘In corpore sano’. I wasn’t blown away by Serbia’s rehearsal in the same way as Czech Republic and San Marino, but Konstrakta’s qualification chance has risen to where it probably should have been all along.
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Biggest falls
Montenegro
Qualification chance: 9% (-17) / Final win chance: 0.1% (-)
Unfortunately for Vladana, this performance doesn’t really stand out in the running order. There are a run of three songs in this semi-final (Poland, Montenegro and Belgium) which are all using black and blue colours heavily in their staging, which should damage at least one of the three. Montenegro’s qualification chance fell dramatically after rehearsals, and it looks like they will miss out on the final for the fifth time in a row.
Finland
Qualification chance: 73% (-12) / Final win chance: 0.2% (-0.3)
Vocals were a real struggle for Finland during rehearsals. While the chorus sounded okay, the verses really exposed it and The Rasmus will be hoping for a better performance in tonight’s jury show. Staging wise, the song also takes its time to get going. The first 30 seconds of the performance don’t really work on screen, with lead singer Lauri staring down the camera and holding a balloon. Though the odds still have Finland as a likely qualifier, after Albania missed out in the first semi-final yesterday, could both show openers fail to qualify for the first time since 2013?
North Macedonia
Qualification chance: 10% (-8) / Final win chance: 0.1% (-)
North Macedonia suffers from the same problem as Montenegro. Andrea didn’t give a bad performance in rehearsals, but the song ultimately failed to stand out amongst the others. I find it difficult to see where the points would come from for this to go through.
Patrick Flynn is a Politics Analyst at Smarkets. You can follow him on Twitter @patrickjfl.
This is to all the wiwifans who have never had any faith in Belgium : We are through! You may think it is not “BIG” enough or “boring” or whatever, the truth is : Jérémie showed us this song is for him and it appealed enough to be qualified!
Well done Jérémie, and from now on : everything is a win!
Just watched semi final 2 – if these are quality songs I better get writing – what a load of bull
I wish the UK would stop paying for this . We should just quality and if we fail then fine. But we shouldn’t buy our way in. Just stop paying for this s*it fest.
Be honest folks this is f*&kin awful.
ABBA were better in 1974.
Well it’s semi 2 and it’s marginally better than semi 1. But man it’s good for a laugh.
Who’s the woman hosting it? Has she been out in the rain?
I’d like Romania (or even Israel) to qualify. Otherwise, we’ll not have many dance entries to raise the level of adrenaline on Saturday.
People still take the odds seriously? Switzerland had only a 33 percent chance of qualifying according to the odds, yet they qualified. Similar story with Iceland and Lithuania. After semi final 1 results, anything is possible at this point
I don’t care about the odds, let’s just enjoy the show
As a Maltese ESC fan, all I hope is that Malta does really poorly so that we go back to internal selection next year. Nobody here likes whatever we have sent, and no entry in our national final could have dreamt of making it to the final. Our entry is all a foreign package anyway except for the nationality of the singer. What a waste of a great artist.
I’ve had this doubt for quite a while – and taking advantage of the fact that you’re Maltese I want to ask you, is it true that the Maltese didn’t vote for Aidan because of plagiarism (as I read on some YT comments)?
Yes, definitely – unfortunately he has become quite known to plagiarise mainstream pop music. Also, even though the song was in Maltese, it was quite hard to connect to, because most of the lyrics made no sense. Also, the fact that Emma was quite popular here as an artist, even though nobody really liked her song, everyone voted for her.
Sorry to hear this from a Maltese .
Very difficult to predict here. The only ones who have it in the bag are Sweden and Serbia. For the rest we have to wait and see.
My NGNG prediction is that one of Cyprus and Finland (or both) could shockingly NQ.
I think Australia and Azerbaijan are in tbh. Both solid songs, amazing staging and singers, so I think they were quite high with the juries.
I don’t see Israel qualifying tbh. Too many bops in the semifinal and he’s performing way too early. It’s giving Latvia.
Really hope Ireland and San Marino qualify.
We have the same initials and we agree 100% :p
idk Australia has it in the bag but Azerbuyjan might struggle big time
Looking at SF1 surprises I can totally see either Serbia or Poland not qualifying. Mark my words, shock NQ incoming.
Serbia is likely, simply because it sounds / looks weird when one watches it for first time without knowing its message (that is in Serbian). Other than that, good luck Serbia!
Now i think it’s iconic and I love it but When i watched it the first time i was like wtf is this and i hated it. And that’s a problem but i really want this qualify and finish top 10
But the chorus is so a earworm… I think there is a lot of potential for Tikotk, while people are clapping and airwashing their hands…
But the chorus is so an earworm…
I predict Australia might be be the shock non qualifier from tonight…. and Romania to be the shock qualifier.
You may be right! My feeling is that people are getting tired of Australia – must admit I take a deep breath every time he is about to perform – and a sigh of relief when he’s finished!
I have same feelings about Australia and Romania too. Also, after San Marino where everything is going on, people just not be in a mood that Australia give.
I somehow predict for tonight some kind of major technical with the voting system & a huge hullaballoo with some NQ expected to Q. #NotAPsychicBut…
I can’t make any prediction. Everything is so… impredictable this year! This being said, I guess Sweden, Poland, Czech Republic are safe. Achille Lauro is at home tonight, so he might get a ticket to the final as well. I have great doubts about Estonia, North Macedonia and Azerbaijan. For the rest, je ne sais pas!
Since everyone is dropping their predictions here’s mine in alpabetical order (it might change after watching the actual performances):
Australia
Azerbaijan
Belgium
Czechia
Estonia
Ireland
Poland
San Marino
Serbia
Sweden
I’m voting for Czechia and Ireland (from the UK). Good luck to all participants. It will be a nice semi tonight. 🙂
My personal qualifiers:
Serbia, Georgia, San Marino, Cyprus, Estonia, Poland, Ireland, Sweden, Czech Republic, and then either Finland or Australia.
I think Azerbaijan may qualify and potentially Israel as well. I don’t feel like there’ll be many shocks this SF.
I think 50% of my body will surely qualify, Sweden. The other 50% , Belgium, not so sure about that.
Go Konstrakta. Go queen for THE VICTORY. Song with MESSAGE, amazing sound, and good staging. Serbia is ABSOLUTELY Q. No doubt about that.
Hard to say. Iike it at times, at others I hate it. I have a conflictual relationship with this song. I know why though: the message, the originality and the artist are undeniably great, but musically speaking… But she is really great as an artist 🙂
Can’t stand it. Won’t be surprised if it NQs.
Suffer, lol..
Go Konstrakta, stay healthy!!
I hope we don’t have to see Israel in the Final . He’s cringe
I’m Irish so of course if we qualify I’d be happy, however I’m also realistic and I’m not hopeful for it. There is a path there for qualification having UK, Australia, Malta and Sweden voting…but yeahh not getting hopes up for it. I think Georgia could be a shock qualifier. The song is disliked by many here, but only because it’s not a diva banger. Georgia has something nostalgic, fun and creative about it. For me anyway. Of course if it doesn’t qualify I won’t be surprised either I’ll just know that Eurovision simply wasn’t ready for it. My other… Read more »
Australia not Austria **
Georgia… Everytime they sing the phrase “Lock me sideways”, I can’t help thinking about Mrs Doyle in “Father Ted”…
Hahaha YES! That just hit me now actually haha excellent shout haha
I like the Georgian song and the juries will appreciate it a lot, I feel it will go through. Televote-wise, it will also get some points but not many. Georgia always sends artistic entries, experiments and so, well done!
Approaching semi 2 from the other end. Which acts do I (personally) want to get rid of (harsh perhaps – but some will have to go):
Australia (I know … but too much of everything)
Finland (not my thing unless they stage it with som panache)
North Macedonia (like her voice … but)
Malta (far too sugar-ish)
Serbia (I don’t get what the fuss is about)
Romania (a definite no)
Ireland (a bit sad about it … but it doesn’t click with me)
Estonia (like his voice … very talented … but the style of music isn’t for me)
Serbia is top3 this year and you dont get what is song about? Nice hahahahah
Not get the hype either. At all. It was at least strange first time I watched the video. Good luck to Konstrakta, though! Every artist must be appreciated for their efforts on stage.
And Israel too.
By the way, the link I left here in the comments, yesterday night, showing the UK’s performance no longer works because the video must have been taken down on YT so it’s all good! After all, I shouldn’t have left it here in the first place, it was a mistake and I may have ruined some people’s experience and I want to apologise for that, I acted poorly and foolish through my enthusiasm.
As for anyone that hasn’t been spoiled by it, prepare to see marvellous things tonight by San Ryder. 🙂
*Sam Ryder
Spoirler….maaannnnnnnnnn…..
“Spoiler
If people were spoiled is because they clicked on the link not because you posted it, just saying … Can’t wait to see Sam at the final btw
You didn’t spoil anything for anybody. You didn’t force people to click.
I saw the performance of Sweden from last night and they did her dirty… Compared to Melodifestivalen the camera work is terrible, you can even see the man that is spinning the circle on TV…and she is not the only one with problems. This is just disrespectful to the artists
I maintain my opinion that Italy is terrible as a hosting country…
Hopefully next year we will have a better host!
Quite likely that Sweden or Ukraine will win so next year Sweden will be the host and everything will be absolutely perfect and there will be no complaints whatsoever from anybody and all the ESC fandom will be civil and supportive and peace will reign among all nations, alleluiah
What are your shocking qualifiers and non-qualifiers?
I go for Georgia to qualify (dark horse) and believe that Serbia may not go through (similarly to Albania) despite the hype and odds.
Serbia will get 48 points from Montenegro and North Macedonia alone, so I really doubt that she will NQ
I agree Georgia will likely qualify. I say this also because I got 9/10 in SF1! (I was wrong about Lithuania getting in and Austria not making the cut, partly influenced by the choice of interval show, that I thought would have an influence on the voting for those 2 in particular).
I also think so because the song is pretty damned catchy!
I’ll work out the qualifiers tonight, though I know who I really don’t like (Israel)
Montenegro might be shock qualifier because I think she will get a lot of sympathy votes because of song theme and many Serbs who will vote for Serbia from abroad will send a vote for Montenegro too.
Well, things get tough tonight. Semi 2 is much weaker than semi 1 in my view. A lot will struggle to qualify. DEFINITE QUALIFIERS: Sweden and Poland (backed by both juries and televote), Australia (mainly backed up by the juries). HIGHLY LIKELY TO QUALIFY: Azerbaijan (juries), Finland (televote but they need to level up a bit, like the UMK final), Czechia (televote) BORDERLINE: Serbia (I can’t see the hype at all but I can see support from televote, will it be enough?), Estonia (a little bit by both juries and televote), Romania (televote). SURPRISE QUALIFIER: Georgia (despite the odds, it’s… Read more »
This is the weakest lineup of songs overall in years in my opinion
I don’t know why, but Montenegro is like my favorite entry this year. Vladana is so likeable, the song builds up in a dramatic way which i love, and her vocals are actually insane shen she hits those both the lowest and the highest votes. I also feel like there aren’t a lot of ballads that actually use ethnic sounds this year, which is something i also love about this entry. It hurts to see her this low in the odds, but I’m sending love from Norway!
I believe San Marino (and probably Georgia) will make it, in spite of the low previsions here.
My personal qualifiers (random order):
Serbia
Sweden
Ireland
Estonia
Poland
Belgium (if they manage to hide every single negative aspect of their staging and performance, otherwise…)
Israel
Australia
San marino
Czech Republic
My prediction: EXACTLY THE SAME, apart from Belgium, their Grand Final place will go to Azerbaijan.
(I also love Circus Mircus but yeah… :’))
I predicted 7 out of 10 in the first semi final (I thought Albania , Latvia and Austria would qualify)
My predictions for Second semi are :
Sure qualifiers : Poland , Sweden, Czech R. , Serbia
Possible Qualifiers : Finland , Estonia
Favourite but can be eliminated : Cyprus , Belgium
Unexpected Qualifier : Israel , San Marino
Oh i’m sorry i forgot Australia , sure qualifier of course.
My Qualification Prediction in random order:
Excited for tonight!
Come on Israel
The first half of the final is almost full, how many places are left to fill the first half of the final?
1 or 2. The songs will be 25 this year. Im not sure if 12/25 is first half or 13/25.
3 songs for the first half (13 countries)
3 spaces left in the first half left for Sweden, Poland, and Serbia 🙂
Then in that case we all have huuuuge toilet break in the second half 🙂
Hahaha and then as a result Spain performing first and Spanish fans going ballistic
For some reason I find some “sure” qualifiers, like 7 or 8, but still they don’t have the spot secured (if that make any sense). So it’s bit harder to predict. Also the remaining spots could be taken by many of the other countries. Anyway, this is how I predict it will go: Sweden – 100% Serbia – 100% Poland – 85% Cyprus – 75% Azerbaijan – 70% Czech Republic – 70% Finland – 60% Australia – 60% San Marino – 60% Estonia – 50% – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –… Read more »
You’re overestimating Cyprus and underestimating Estonia IMO.
You go home tonight
I love Sweden, but I somehow doubt it will be a public favourite. All of my friends (outside the ESC bubble, “normal” pop-friendly ESC viewers) think it’s a very average song. Of course, Cornelia will qualify, but winning is not realistic. Jury will award high points though.
Why is it not realistic? Because your three mates find it average?
It is more realistic than Australia to win..
Malta is my personal winner, and i am sure Emma will have such a strong career ahead of her, what a talent and i massively respect her for not playing things safe but loving to take risks, i will definitely enjoy her performance tonight, and i might even dance and clap along, Emma has a fan for life in me
Good Luck Emma, with love from Netherlands (i feel really sad that i can’t vote in this semi)
Alright I sat through it, thought about it and I have my finalized predictions for this death semi. I took some big risks here. We shall see what happens. 1. Sweden: My predicted jury winner of the semi and maybe the final also. I can’t see Sweden not winning the jury vote in the semi. 2. Serbia: My predicted televote winner of the semi and maybe the final also. The public have shown great liking to this act but I have no idea how the juries will respond to this, but I think the jury will put it as a… Read more »
I don’t believe that Serbia will be the televote winner. I would compare the Serbian entry with the last year’s Russia, both performing as 3rd (not very favourable position) and both loved by many fans for being original and innovative (although not very melodious). But obviously less attractive for an average ESC viewer since Russia was only 4th with the televote.
I think in this semi Serbia is the most likely to get the most votes from the public. I know Poland could, Sweden could or maybe someone else but I really feel Serbia is winning the televote.
The bookies are a mess right now, they predict that Finland, Cyprus, Azerbaijan and Belgium will qualify, but I feel SM, Ireland, Israel and Romania (at least some of them) will qualify instead. In the first semi they were completely wrong, predicting only 7/10, the second semi is even stronger and unpredictable
Now imagine the picture behind those bookies that these are actually human beings who make bets. How many broken hearts, and yet, I know at least a few guys who did their bets because “The bookies showed it’s very likely”. I mean, if you’re THAT dumb, nobody is going to save you as those bookies are nothing more than eurofans and nationalists who are listening to these songs for the past 2 months while on the stage to most viewers it will last only 3 minutes so performances, which need to grow, may fail. Oh well…
For me this is the weakest semi final. I don’t understand the odds of 2 songs: Finland and Azerbaijan. Finland sounds so old and cheap, I don’t see why it’s a clear qualifier. Azerbaijan is a clear NQ for me.
Anyway, this will be quite unpredictable. The only songs that I actually like is Serbia, San Marino and Georgia.
The juries can push Azerbaijan to the final, just like Switzerland
What I want:
Finland
Serbia
Georgia
San Marino
Estonia
Romania
Poland
Belgium
Sweden
Czech Republic
What I expect:
Finland
Serbia
Azerbaijan
Australia
Cyprus
Ireland
Estonia
Poland
Sweden
Czech Republic
From both lists I made for Semi 1, I had 8/10 correct
I agree with 9 of your 10 personal faves!
I have no FOC (favourite of concern) in this semifinal. Serbia, Sweden and Estonia will prevail.
Fingers crossed for the Aphrodite of Cyprus….
Semi 2 is a weird one. There may be stiff competition (what many fans call a blood bath), but not because there are too many good songs – rather the opposite – too many mediocre songs that are up against each other; i.e. I don’t care one bit for the Swedish entry – but amongst the other lot it is hard to ignore. Hence it will probably be the overall winner.
we are indeed on the same page.
I really hope Andrea gets through. First because she’s a super singer and doing all the lead vocal work (unlike Domi). And second because she is performing well in spite of the horrible treatment by her delegation.
Unfortunately, she likely won’t stand any chance because Circles is one of the weakest songs this year. All the passion and all of her heart that she puts in, won’t be enough I guess.
The betting odds had Lithuania at 40t so it means nothing
But Lithuania has a better song than N.Macedonia
Betting odds had Lithuania at 11th to qualify. The odds to win and odds to qualify are different. There is no chance Lithuania is winning.
One thing i know for sure, i wont vote for a certain country until EBU investigates the accusations against a certain delegation for harassment.
Is it Norway?
I doubt. from the article it looks like a country that has nice waffles…
OOOOOOO Belgium?? What kind of harrasments are we talking about?
Explain yourself!
https://torino.corriere.it/cronaca/22_maggio_11/eurovision-volontaria-racconta-molestie-ballavamo-vicini-poi-ho-sentito-loro-mani-addosso-50275248-d093-11ec-ae98-deceb48b9302.shtml
I think it’s better you check your sources next time a bit better. Cause it’s what Dirk says…. it’s fake!
Fake news
This SF2 has the 2 songs to which I am allergic to: Poland and Australia. The Czech song is the best of the bunch, while Serbia and Sweden are ok. Overall, SF1 was much more to my taste.
You’re spot on! Agree!
My predictions in random order (last year I had 9/10 in the second semi so let’s see how I’m gonna do now!).
Sweden
Serbia
Poland
Australia
Estonia
Finland
Azerbaijan
San Marino (unless the juries completely ignored it)
Czech Republic
Malta (we all know Malta is juries’ fav child!)
I’d include Belgium instead of Malta but he completely butchered his last high note in the jury show. San Marino has to qualify and I hope juries will appreciate this more than what I expect them to do. Praying that somehow Ireland will also make it. Brooke deserves it.
CYPRUS <3
Exact same prediction!
I don’t think both Finland and San marino can qualify
I guess juries won’t be enough to save Malta. I am what I am is simply not good enough and more in the category of Breathlessly or Taboo than Chameleon or Je Me Casse. And we all know, that Breathlessly and Taboo were absolutely smashed by the televotes and thats what I foresee for Emma.
Sorry, Malta’s song is the worst one at this edition. I’d rather prefer any other.
Regarding your comment about Belgium, Marius also completely failed his high note during jury show of SF1. Look now where is Switzerland…
Anyway I’m not confident about Belgium qualification because the staging is not good enough and eurovision fans are tearing down Belgium since the very forst day.
It’s amazing how Belgium has become the “they can do nothing good this year” country on wiwibloggs here! From all the online fan sites, wiwibloggs were the only ones to trash down the official video (greatly taken over by the wiwiblogg fans and that has been stuck ever since). Well, I will hope for a qualification for our country and then we’ll see! Jérémie deserves to be in final, as much as any other song! And if we don’t qualify: well done Jérémie! Perfect candidate for our little country!
San Marino, Romania and Cyprus to go through to the final please. I have already resigned myself to losing Andrea and am at peace with it. Hopefully these three of my top ten get through, they all have a chance but it’s going to be nerve-wracking!
Sweden is nothing special in this year. Yesterday my good opinion about Belgium was crushed. Poland, Australia, Finland, Serbia were amazing. The stongest vocal is Poland. I hope Ireland, Cyprus and Montenegro will be in the final 🙂 good luck for everyone
San Marino will go through tonight. Bookmark this.
Romania will get 12 points from the Spanish televote today. That’s the only thing I know for sure. Will WRS qualify though? Idk
I wouldn’t be so sure, honestly.
Nor am I! The vocals are … surely the juries cannot reward Romania in those terms! What is left is merely a good instrumental bit.
Yes, that’s why I don’t know what will happen. I don’t think the juries are voting him. As per the rest of the countries’ televote, I have no idea, but I don’t think he is getting as much support as in Spain, because here it is crazy. Not for the final, for sure, but in this SF I am sure the fandom will go and vote for him.
About what? The 12 points from the Spanish televote? I’m telling you, that’s for sure. Here in Spain the semifinales are mostly watched by eurofans and the Spanish eurofandom is supporting Llámame like crazy.