Semi-Final 2 of Eurovision 2022 unfolds on Thursday evening. Ahead of that it’s time to take a look at the biggest changes in the semi-final odds since the start of rehearsals…
Qualification chance: 78% (+17) / Final win chance: 0.2% (-)
We Are Domi had one of the best rehearsals from the semi-final, and their qualification chance rose significantly. Any concerns I had about vocals pretty much went out the door as lead singer Dominika delivered a confident and assured performance alongside some really good staging. The band were very happy with their rehearsal and rightly so. I expect this will sail through to the final.
Qualification chance: 40% (+10) / Final win chance: 0.2% (-0.2)
Achille Lauro was another standout from the second semi-final rehearsals. He brought a sense of fun, energy and showmanship with one of the most memorable stage shows of the contest. It would be a big shame if this doesn’t make it to Saturday’s final.
Qualification chance: 83% (+10) / Final win chance: 0.7% (-)
Despite Serbia being hindered somewhat by the broken kinetic sun, the addition of some on-screen lyrics should help broaden the appeal of ‘In corpore sano’. I wasn’t blown away by Serbia’s rehearsal in the same way as Czech Republic and San Marino, but Konstrakta’s qualification chance has risen to where it probably should have been all along.
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Qualification chance: 9% (-17) / Final win chance: 0.1% (-)
Unfortunately for Vladana, this performance doesn’t really stand out in the running order. There are a run of three songs in this semi-final (Poland, Montenegro and Belgium) which are all using black and blue colours heavily in their staging, which should damage at least one of the three. Montenegro’s qualification chance fell dramatically after rehearsals, and it looks like they will miss out on the final for the fifth time in a row.
Qualification chance: 73% (-12) / Final win chance: 0.2% (-0.3)
Vocals were a real struggle for Finland during rehearsals. While the chorus sounded okay, the verses really exposed it and The Rasmus will be hoping for a better performance in tonight’s jury show. Staging wise, the song also takes its time to get going. The first 30 seconds of the performance don’t really work on screen, with lead singer Lauri staring down the camera and holding a balloon. Though the odds still have Finland as a likely qualifier, after Albania missed out in the first semi-final yesterday, could both show openers fail to qualify for the first time since 2013?
Qualification chance: 10% (-8) / Final win chance: 0.1% (-)
North Macedonia suffers from the same problem as Montenegro. Andrea didn’t give a bad performance in rehearsals, but the song ultimately failed to stand out amongst the others. I find it difficult to see where the points would come from for this to go through.
Patrick Flynn is a Politics Analyst at Smarkets. You can follow him on Twitter @patrickjfl.