The following is a press release from Smarkets.


With the BBC set to announce the shortlist of contenders on Friday, the latest betting-market data from Smarkets suggests that Glasgow (43% chance) and Birmingham (27%) are the two frontrunners to host next year’s Eurovision Song Contest.

There is a big gap to Manchester in third (7%), with Leeds (5%), London (5%), Aberdeen (4%) and Liverpool (4%) next in the betting.

Belfast, Sheffield, Bristol and Newcastle are all rank outsiders, sitting at a 2% chance or less.

You can read this article on Smarkets News from our Eurovision expert Patrick Flynn for a detailed rundown of the contenders.

Looking at the outright winner market for the 2023 contest, this year’s winners Ukraine are the clear early favourites and given about a 40% chance of claiming the title once more.

Glasgow and Birmingham remain favourites to host Eurovision 2023

Comment from Patrick Flynn, Smarkets Analyst: 

“The battle to host next year’s Eurovision is slowly becoming a two-horse race. Glasgow and Birmingham are in a league of their own above the other contenders according to Smarkets prices, with the gap between the two closing by the day. Birmingham is now trading at its highest price (27%) since we opened our market, while Glasgow is at its lowest (43%).”

“Potential host cities must have an indoor arena with capacity for at least 10,000 spectators (though somewhere in the region of 15,000 is usually preferred), have ample hotel accommodation for delegates, and be close to an international airport. Based on the likely strength of their bids, Glasgow and Birmingham are the rightful frontrunners, though Leeds and Aberdeen look at this stage like potential dark horses.”

“Despite early speculation, both Manchester and London never looked like strong contenders. Manchester’s AO Arena is undergoing major renovations for the next three years and selecting the capital could be bad optics for the BBC amid ongoing political debates about ‘levelling up’ the rest of the country.”

For more Eurovision betting-market insights, follow Patrick on Twitter: @patrickjfl

About Smarkets

Smarkets provides more accurate probabilities than bookmakers’ odds:

  • With a traditional bookie, people bet against the house, meaning oddsmakers weight the market in their favour to ensure a profit – potentially distorting the prediction 
  • The Smarkets exchange enables peer-to-peer betting and trading, so the odds move based on where users place their money – with no built-in house edge. We profit by charging a small 2% commission on winnings 
  • The exchange (smarkets.com) launched in 2010 and handles billions of pounds in trading volume each year, with market prices providing a real-time snapshot of public sentiment 
  • Read a more detailed prediction market explanation here 
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Darren
Darren
1 month ago

Mad to think though that we probably won’t have Eurovision hosted in a capital city since Lisbon in 2018 (depending on what you think about Israel’s capital…or supposed capital).

Meckie
Meckie
1 month ago
Reply to  Darren

Jerusalem is capital of Israel.

motopapi
motopapi
1 month ago
Reply to  Meckie

But 2019 was hosted in Tel Aviv

Meckie
Meckie
1 month ago
Reply to  Darren

Torino actually used to be the capital of Italy many years ago!

motopapi
motopapi
1 month ago
Reply to  Meckie

But it’s not Italy’s current capital city, I think that’s his point

Darren
Darren
1 month ago

Birmingham is a cool city I really like it, but they’ve just had the Commonwealth Games there so I think it should be somewhere else.

I’m still saying Manchester, it just suits the bill as a Eurovision host city.

Glasgow is cool too, but for me, Manchester just feels right.

BBC might say Glasgow though in order to boost national spirit up in Scotland seeing as they probably will leave the UK at some point within our lifetime

Pedro
Pedro
1 month ago

I don’t know if anyone’s been to Birmingham, but damn I wonder if I wouldn’t prefer going to Eurovision in Luhansk and risk being bombed by Russia.

It doesn’t even feel like Western Europe, it’s grim and grey, there’s homeless people everywhere, the food is barely edible, the whole place gives post industrial soviet vibes. UK has nice places but it’s limited to London, Bath, Scotland and that’s it. Northern England is depressing af.

Teddy
Teddy
1 month ago
Reply to  Pedro

Birmingham is great, just look at the images from the Commonwealth Games that finished a couple days ago. Northern England is also much nicer and affordable than overrated London

Pedro
Pedro
1 month ago
Reply to  Teddy

I don’t need to look at pictures, I’ve been there in person cause work forced me to (same for Liverpool and Manchester). I confirm I’d rather go to Ukraine under Russian shelling. Love how in Birmingham everyone recommended that new library, I went there (it was nice but also just a public library) and I literally had to zigzag between homeless people to even access the entrance.

London is “overrated” for a reason, there’s really not much else to see in England besides these former mining towns that were economically and socially decimated by Thatcher.

musica
musica
1 month ago
Reply to  Pedro

If you’re so afraid of homeless people I doubt Ukraine is the place to go right now.

Henno
Henno
1 month ago
Reply to  Pedro

Where are you from? If it’s Portugal or Spain, there are parts of many cities in those countries which are absolutely filthy shanty towns. There’s poverty everywhere, but less so in the UK than other European cities, according to the stats. Oh, and your blanket statement regarding ‘there’s nothing much to see in England’ – your loss. England is absolutely littered with amazing and beautiful places. Jog on, mate!

Kosey
Kosey
1 month ago
Reply to  Pedro

I really hope your post was intended to be funny. I do enjoy ironic humour, and this is not a bad attempt at it (as long as you were definitely trying?)

Sam
Sam
1 month ago
Reply to  Pedro

Errr, Birmingham is actually a nice city, ive been there a few times and have plenty of friends from the city. As a Yorkshireman I can say that you clearly haven’t been there, its friendly, it’s open, it’s welcoming and just because some places are post-industrial, it doesn’t mean that the huge regeneration in Manchester, Leeds, Sheffield, Newcastle, Liverpool and a whole host of cities in the North isn’t achieving something. Let alone account for the gorgeous cities we already have like York, Harrogate, Lancaster and anything on the coasts. The UK has so many gorgeous places that isn’t limited… Read more »

motopapi
motopapi
1 month ago
Reply to  Pedro

Jeez! I didn’t like Birmingham but I don’t agree with what you say, it’s just too exaggerated

Azuro
Azuro
1 month ago

The odds are basically being influenced by hype around the Fire Saga movie for Glasgow, and hype around the Commonwealth games for Birmingham.

As someone who wants the UK to prove it takes the contest seriously, I want UK to host in it’s flagship city, London. But probably the BBC will hold it in Manchester as they are now based there and they announced the points from there for the first time ever.

Henno
Henno
1 month ago
Reply to  Azuro

Capital city, not flagship…. other cities in the UK far excel over London in many respects, not least levels of quality of life – in that respect they would be flagship cities.

Sam
Sam
1 month ago
Reply to  Azuro

Literally all of the cities would show the UK takes it seriously. Glasgow has hype because its a great arena in a wonderful city, and proved with the 2014 commonwealth and 2021 COP26 that it can host large international events. Birmingham has hype because it has literally just shown that it can host large events, and despite the naysayers the city is going through a regeneration and looks much better now. Manchester is a great option too, an upcoming city that hosts lots of big events (including commonwealth 2002) and has plenty of choices for arenas. London can host this… Read more »

Eurovision fan
Eurovision fan
1 month ago

Glasgow would be totally ok option, but Liverpool stays my favourite. Manchester would be the best host city in my opinion, but I would rather leave Manchester for times when UK wins. It would be better to try with some other city this time.

Paul
Paul
1 month ago

The thing I don’t understand is that Manchester is currently 50-1 with Paddypower… does anyone know something??

Rifki
Rifki
1 month ago
Reply to  Paul

well, that is probably because of two contrasting facts: great venue (in the Manchester AO Arena), but (seemingly) lack of potential press centre location. hypothetically, Manchester could use either the new City Campus Manchester or the Stoller Hall, both right beside the arena, but I don’t know if it is practicable.

Jake Dallas
Jake Dallas
1 month ago

43% odds on Glasgow is a bit high. Nothing against the city, it would be a good host, but I don’t know why it’s lightyears above the others for no objective reason. It has neither the biggest arena nor the largest Ukrainian community.

Also, I think Manchester might have more of a shot than Birmingham as the EBU tend to bring the contest to cities that have never hosted before.

Honestly, it might be a closer race than expected

Henno
Henno
1 month ago
Reply to  Jake Dallas

Objectively speaking, having the ‘largest Ukranian community’ has diddly squat, (and rightly should have diddly squat) to do with the decision. I think it is a tight race between Glasgow, Manchester and London.

Eurovision fan
Eurovision fan
1 month ago
Reply to  Jake Dallas

The statement that the host city should have big Ukrainian community is silly.

Azuro
Azuro
1 month ago
Reply to  Jake Dallas

Agree, the host city should be somewhere easy for the Ukrainain residents of Britain are, the obvious choice would be London.