Photo: Corinne Cumming / EBU

Eurovision 2023 is right around the corner. On Tuesday 9 May, semi-final 1 takes place inside Liverpool’s M&S Bank Arena, as 15 countries hope to make it through to Saturday’s grand final. 

Amongst the contenders are song contest favourites Sweden and Finland, who Oddschecker bookmakers are placing as sure-fire qualifiers. Elsewhere, Ireland and the Netherlands remain outsiders — and bettors could see huge returns if they make it through. 

Eurovision semi-final 1 odds after rehearsals

 
 
 
 
 
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The Eurovision odds market is shifting after rehearsals. According to bookmakers, Sweden and Finland remain firm favourites to qualify from semi-final 1. Further down the table, bookies also predict Norway, Israel, Czechia, Moldova, Serbia, Switzerland, Portugal and Croatia will make it through to the grand final.

Pulling up the rear is the Netherlands, Malta, Ireland, Latvia, and Azerbaijan. Bookmakers think these countries — coincidentally all represented by duos or groups — will fail to qualify on Tuesday night. 

Odds to qualify

  1. Sweden — 1/200
  2. Finland — 1/200
  3. Norway 1/100
  4. Israel — 1/80
  5. Czechia — 1/14
  6. Moldova — 1/12
  7. Serbia — 1/4
  8. Switzerland — 4/9
  9. Portugal — 1/2
  10. Croatia — 1/2
  11. Netherlands — 4/6
  12. Malta — 2/1
  13. Ireland — 7/2
  14. Latvia — 7/2
  15. Azerbaijan — 5/1

Odds correct as of 10:00 BST on Sunday 7 May.

What do you make of the Eurovision betting odds? Will bookmakers get it right? Share your thoughts in the comments below.

35 Comments
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Thomas
Thomas
8 months ago

Croatia has a 50% chance of reaching the final (10th place in the semi-final), but a 17% chance of winning Eurovision (1st place). And understand the bookmakers here.

Piet
Piet
1 year ago

Astounded that Israel is actually so high in the odds. Okay, pretty girl and she has nice moves. But is that what a SONG contest is about? FFS, she even ASKS the public “Do you wanna see me dance?” The girl needs the pre-recorded backing vocals to hide her flimsy voice. And the song is utterly generic, to say the least. I don’t understand why this should qualify.

Orla Burke
Orla Burke
1 year ago

Really sad that sweden have to send a previous winner in again and her dumb song sounds like her previous winner and no one has mentioned that yet ? Why ?? Because it’s SWEDEN of course !!

Orla Burke
Orla Burke
1 year ago

What you people have forgotten is that voting is open to countries outside of the competition for the first time and Ireland has a huge diaspora (yes look up
What that means) and to even think Ireland is the same as dreary Latvia is laughable

Honeybooboo
Honeybooboo
1 year ago
Reply to  Orla Burke

Lol, you actually have the gall to deride Latvia’s genuinely heartfelt and competent Indie rock ballad that sounds authentic and not off a production line, in favour of Wild Youth’s cringy, generic, wannabe U2 b-side? That’s the funniest thing I’ve heard for a while. Also, most people on here don’t need to be condescendingly told to look up the meaning of ‘diaspora’, we know exactly what it means. If the Irish diaspora has to vote for their song to get it through, instead of relying on the unbiased votes of other countries, then it’s clearly not a very good song.

Roro31
Roro31
1 year ago

I don’t understand why Portugal will be eliminated when people wanted change for this country, the opportunity presents itself, it’s not a ballad for Portugal, so vote Mimicat!

I think that unfortunately Croatia will pass, and I also think that Malta could pass instead of Portugal. The others will be there, that’s for sure.

Karl
Karl
1 year ago

The fandom will go insane if Azerbaijan qualify. I’m hoping they do. Their song is so pleasant and the twins are adorable.

Thallo
Thallo
1 year ago
Reply to  Karl

I’m sure the Azerbaijani government has plenty of sim cards ready so they can qualify.

Karl
Karl
1 year ago
Reply to  Thallo

I hope so, cuz I really want to see them in the final.

BadWoolfGirl
BadWoolfGirl
1 year ago

I can’t believe eurovision is finally here this week! My, how time has flown so fast! I can’t wait

Sol Stevia
Sol Stevia
1 year ago

My finalized SF1 predictions before the semi in 2 days. Happy ESC week! 1. Sweden: After her Melfest win Sweden was a shoe in for the win in Liverpool for me. Despite me not wanting Sweden to win this year I thought it was inevitable they’ll win and despite the fact I think the win might not be as obvious considering the strong competition Sweden faces this year, I still think Sweden will come top 3 with the public and first with the jury scoring them the win in the grand final. 2. Finland: I’m sure they’ll fix the audio… Read more »

Briekimchi
Briekimchi
1 year ago

Historically, bookies are much better at predicting either jury results or jury/televote combined results. A 100% televote should be interesting for them, especially when it comes to those outside the obvious favourites.

I still find it *very* hard to believe that Latvia are not qualifying. The people who like it are REALLY motivated to vote for it. This is a bit of a contrast with something like Portugal where, even though people like it, most of them are putting it below a lot of things they like more.

Patrick Pastor
Patrick Pastor
1 year ago
Reply to  Briekimchi

That’s an age-old problem in ESC – when you’re everyone’s fifth choice.

Jo.
Jo.
1 year ago
Reply to  Briekimchi

Some people prefer quieter songs instead of a bop, and Latvia stands out in that field. Some upbeat entries will flop, and Portugal is among the weakest ones in this semi, so they’re in trouble here.

Rambo Amadeus
Rambo Amadeus
1 year ago

At this point I’m agreeing with 9 out of the odds’ top 10 for my predictions, everyone except Switzerland, I feel like the better running order spot could still benefit The Netherlands, who would scrape through instead. Obviously, I’d much rather have Latvia receive that last Q spot, but in recent history at least 2 out of the first 5 countries in a SF running order have failed to qualify, so it’s tough to say but hopefully we’ll be proven wrong on that one.

Eve
Eve
1 year ago
Reply to  Rambo Amadeus

No way Switzerland is a NQ with THAT vocal!

WannaEatMySpaghetti
WannaEatMySpaghetti
1 year ago

Again I agree with 9 of the 10 predicted qualifiers. I don’t like Croatia and I’d prefer The Netherlands. But if I’m being objective, what Let 3 proposes is more interesting than Mia & Dion so I wouldn’t be bothered at all to see Croatia qualifying 🙂

Mike Ahern
Mike Ahern
1 year ago

How can eleven of the fifteen acts be odds-on to qualify when there are only ten qualifiers?

Doris
Doris
1 year ago

Sweden, Norway and Finland in the same SF, this should never happen

finnished
finnished
1 year ago
Reply to  Doris

Well there are 5 Nordic countries so every year there will be three of them in one semi so…

Sol Stevia
Sol Stevia
1 year ago
Reply to  finnished

Some people struggle to do basic math and that’s ok.

Alex
Alex
1 year ago

Unpopular opinion but I think Ireland might qualify, they impressed me the most with the staging.

Aisling
Aisling
1 year ago
Reply to  Alex

Idk why so many people voted you down, I think it could be magical on stage!

Trikker
Trikker
1 year ago

01. ?? Finland – 10.0/10 02. ?? Norway – 10.0/10 03. ?? Slovenia – 10.0/10 04. ?? Sweden – 9.0/10 05. ?? UK – 8.5/10 06. ?? Moldova – 8.5/10 07. ?? Switzerland – 8.5/10 08. ?? Poland – 8.5/10 09. ?? Israel – 8.5/10 10. ?? Estonia – 8.5/10 11. ?? France – 8.5/10 12. ?? Czech Republic – 8.0/10 13. ?? Serbia – 8.0/10 14. ?? Belgium – 8.0/10 15. ?? Austria – 8.0/10 16. ?? Georgia – 8.0/10 17. ?? Croatia – 7.5/10 18. ?? Ukraine – 7.5/10 19. ?? Cyprus – 7.5/10 20. ?? Armenia –… Read more »

Zisk
Zisk
1 year ago

I’ll be voting Latvia because lord knows they need the help. I feel like Switzerland is more at risk than the odds make out. I think Croatia and Portugal are safer than them anyway.

Zisk
Zisk
1 year ago
Reply to  Zisk

Plus I’m in Ireland so with our huge Latvian and Croatian diaspora my vote might actually matter.

Kristian
Kristian
1 year ago

Latvia is #4 , 3 is Serbia

Esc addict / Shut up and watch my ...
Esc addict / Shut up and watch my ...
1 year ago
Reply to  Kristian

<3 represents a heart, it doesn't mean 3.

Poul Rissen
Poul Rissen
1 year ago

I feel safe with 8 out of 10 qualifying countries.

I feel though that Serbia or Portugalmay not make it, and Malta and Latvia will be in.

Personally i feel Portugal is out and Malta in instead.

If Serbia wont make it,I looove the song but perhaps it doesnt get enough televote, its a difficult song, then Latvia is in.

Good luck to everyone.

Rambo Amadeus
Rambo Amadeus
1 year ago
Reply to  Poul Rissen

Serbia has never finished lower than 11th place in a SF televote, and those were quite weak entries (2013 and 2017), so there’s zero chance of Luke Black actually missing out.

Poul Rissen
Poul Rissen
1 year ago
Reply to  Rambo Amadeus

I tend to rely upon my gut feeling and the comparison to the other songs to make a prediction. Stats tell something, but it’s no rule set in stone. I mean, if 100% of the times, Serbia qualifies, it does not mean they will always do it. If once they fail to qualify, then next year the stats would show 95% of the times. Statistics are always historical, so you need to see them with a grain of salt.If something has not happened yet, it does not mean it will never happen. Even if a bookmaker gives a 99% chance… Read more »

Rambo Amadeus
Rambo Amadeus
1 year ago
Reply to  Poul Rissen

Hatari finished 6th in the final’s televote back in 2019 and that song sounded much more aggressive, so I personally guarantee Luke will be just fine, you can sleep well now.

finnished
finnished
1 year ago

Despite the odds I really think Malta is going through. I never liked the Swiss entry but the staging might have just cemented a place for them in the final. I’d say Croatia could struggle. The public doesn’t automatically go for novelty acts. It’s an entertaining performance but we can only have 10 finalists.

Poul Rissen
Poul Rissen
1 year ago
Reply to  finnished

I also feel that Malta will qualify. I am sorry to say but the song on my YouTube music app is unbearable to listen to.
BUT the staging and performance and the guys look good and cute. It’s only televote so…

Andy
Andy
1 year ago

First semi finals of 2018 , 2021 and 2023 are really good. I wish good luck to all 15 acts of this semi final !