Photo: Corinne Cumming / EBU

Rehearsals are wrapping up in Liverpool as the UK prepares to host the Eurovision Song Contest 2023. On Thursday 11 May, 16 countries will compete in semi-final 2 — but only 10 qualification spots are up for grabs. And the bookies odds are in. 

Eurovision semi-final 2 odds put Austria and Australia as favourites to qualify for the grand final, while San Marino and Romania remain outliers. 

Eurovision semi-final 2 odds after rehearsals

 
 
 
 
 
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The Eurovision odds market is shifting after rehearsals. According to Oddschecker, Austria and Australia are the two most likely qualifiers. Bookies also name Cyprus, Armenia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Georgia, Belgium, Poland and Denmark as likely qualifiers. 

At the bottom of the bookies’ table is Estonia, Greece, Albania, Iceland, Romania and San Marino. If the odds are correct, we’ll be waving goodbye to these countries on Tuesday night. 

Odds to qualify

  1. Austria — 1/20
  2. Australia — 1/12
  3. Cyprus — 1/12
  4. Armenia — 1/8
  5. Lithuania — 1/6
  6. Slovenia — 1/5
  7. Georgia — 1/4
  8. Belgium — 1/3
  9. Poland — 4/11
  10. Denmark — 8/11
  11. Estonia — 8/11
  12. Greece — 1/1
  13. Albania — 6/4
  14. Iceland — 7/2
  15. Romania — 6/1
  16. San Marino — 10/1

Odds correct as of 10:30 on Sunday 7 May.

What do you think of the Eurovision semi-final 2 odds? Will the bookies get it right? Sound off in the comments below.

34 Comments
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Michael Crosse
Michael Crosse
11 months ago

I’ve just listened to the songs San Marino seems to be underestimated hardly the worst song

Jo.
Jo.
11 months ago

Still don’t think Belgium will make it instead of Albania or Greece.

Mode
Mode
11 months ago
Reply to  Jo.

That didn’t aged well. HAHAHAHAHAHAAH

Aicha
Aicha
11 months ago

Brunette has a lot of support, especially from Armenian diaspora.
I would not be surprised if she wins second semi.

Yeshoney
Yeshoney
11 months ago

Austria’s staging is just okay. Don’t get why they are still on top.

Markus
Markus
11 months ago

I don’t get the hype about Australia. For me they are like Bulgaria 2022 – awfully dated.

Oy oy
Oy oy
11 months ago
Reply to  Markus

I like Australia 2023 alot, the melody in Bulgaria 2022 was hard to follow, Australia 2023 is really catchy!

Roro31
Roro31
11 months ago

No Estonia in final its a crime (especially to get back to Denmark!!!!)

Whoisit!
Whoisit!
11 months ago

I am quite sure Greece will qualify. The leak of the whole performance is quite good

Poul Rissen
Poul Rissen
11 months ago

Possible swaps regarding the qualifying songs in semi 2:

Denmark, Lithuania VS Iceland, Estonia

If DK is in, no Iceland is in, too. If LITHUANIA is in, no Estonia is in, too. And vice versa. That’s what I feel might happen.

The rest of the Qs and NQs are almost certain to me.

NQ 99%: Greece, San Marino, Romania

Sol Stevia
Sol Stevia
11 months ago

This is my prediction rn I guess. Didn’t bother making a detailed prediction on this semi:

Dead Certain Q’s:
1. Austria
2. Australia
3. Slovenia
4. Armenia

Possible Q’s
5. Iceland
6. Denmark
7. Lithuania
8. Belgium
9. Georgia
10. Cyprus

11. Poland
12. Albania

Unlikely Q’s
13. Estonia
14. Greece

You’re fked:
15. Romania
16. San Marino

Taking Poland out is slightly more wishful thinking than prediction TBH. I can see most of these entries going either way.

Thomas
Thomas
1 month ago
Reply to  Sol Stevia

Poland will easily reach the final. Germany, Great Britain (two countries from the final that can vote in this semi-final), Ireland, Lithuania, Australia are countries where a lot of Poles live, so they will vote for Luna.

Briekimchi
Briekimchi
11 months ago

I think the bookmakers are pretty close on this one. I’d personally make an argument for Albania to qualify ahead of Denmark but, Denmark do tend to scrape qualification positions ahead of more deserving songs so this is a possibility.

Everyone talks about SF1 being stronger but the top seven here are pretty damn strong themselves.

Efthymios
Efthymios
11 months ago

Which countries I expect to qualify and which not, by order too:

1. Australia
2. Austria
3. Armenia
4. Slovenia
5. Georgia
6. Lithuania
7. Estonia
8. Cyprus
9. Poland
10. Albania
– – – – – – – – – – –
11. Denmark
12. Belgium
13. Iceland
14. Greece
15. Romania
16. San Marino

lasse braun
lasse braun
11 months ago

estonias song has pure class but it seems that class is no longer needed in these days.
the bookies failed often in this NF-season – i hope here too – the final need alika because she will bring the final on another level (together with blanca).

🙂

Efthymios
Efthymios
11 months ago

We’ve really been spiraling down a negative cycle this year… -Going from being 7th in the odds at “eurovision world” down to 34th middle of February until settling at a saddening 31st place out of 37 competitors total, our biggest ever plummeting in the betting odds in a single Eurovision season. -Going from qualifying as 8th in SF2 before the rehearsals with a 66 probability percentage down to 12th and becoming a certain non-qualifier with a disastrous 50 percentage that only keeps on dropping every day since our second rehearsal got released. -Definitely going to score our lowest ever position… Read more »

Alex
Alex
11 months ago

I will never understand why Estonia is this low.

Briekimchi
Briekimchi
11 months ago
Reply to  Alex

Because it’s really, really dull?
Seriously though, it’s cool you like it but I don’t find it surprising in the least that there’s little-to-no enthusiasm about it.

lasse braun
lasse braun
11 months ago
Reply to  Briekimchi

dull for you – goosebumps for other people.

mike
mike
11 months ago
Reply to  Alex

It just feels so….tryhard and cheesy. Like it wants to have a message or be deep but in the end she’s just drawling out Friiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiidggggggges

Jo.
Jo.
11 months ago
Reply to  Alex

Typical Eurovision ballad, a type that struggles to get support from the audience

Ralf
Ralf
11 months ago
Reply to  Alex

It is dull and Alika is like zero charisma

WannaEatMySpaghetti
WannaEatMySpaghetti
11 months ago

I don’t want Poland to qualify but I can make with it only if Estonia qualifies over the atrocious Denmark. I agree with the first 8 countries.

guitaristbl
guitaristbl
11 months ago

Albania and Greece will qualify

Doris
Doris
11 months ago

Denmark over Estonia, welcome to the recorded vocals era.

Efthymios
Efthymios
11 months ago

Why do my comments not pass today… :/

Efthymios
Efthymios
11 months ago

We’ve really broken a lot of personal negative records this year, haven’t we? •Going from being 7th in the odds at EurovisionWorld straight down to 34th middle of February until settling at the cozy 31st place out of 37 competitors total, our biggest ever plummeting in the odds in a single Eurovision season. •Going from qualifying as 8th in SF2 before the rehearsals with a 66% probability down to 12th and becoming a certain non-qualifier with a disastrous 50% that only keeps on sinking every day since our second rehearsal got released. •Definitely going to score our lowest ever position… Read more »

Kobe
Kobe
11 months ago

No chance that Austria will win this semi-final.

West
West
11 months ago
Reply to  Kobe

My divination skills told me that Austria will win Eurovision and I’m quite certain that one day I’ll be correct about predicting the winner.

Poul Rissen
Poul Rissen
11 months ago

Its a mediocre semifinal, I feel the only songs that stand out are Austria and Australia.

Then its a bunch of almost 10 countries whose songs are ok but don’t excite me.

I also feel the 4 definite NQ are Greece (poor Victor!), Iceland, San Marino, Romania.

The rest have all a chance of qualifying.

Sam
Sam
11 months ago

Would love to see Iceland on the final just for all the positive vibes the song and Dillon conveys, yet unfortunately feels like people seem to not pay much attention to it 🙁

Euroandwhatnot
Euroandwhatnot
11 months ago

Another reason why these betting odds need to be abolished – they predict more than 10 finalists.

Chris
Chris
11 months ago
Reply to  Euroandwhatnot

i mean, the odds are just a free betting market, which shift as people place bets, they aren’t predicting anything, we’re predicting stuff based on the odds.

Maira
Maira
11 months ago

Austria is terrible. Likes the video clip but live is like 2 aunts trying to sing a nonsense. Boring.