It’s been called the “semi-final of death” and it’s almost guaranteed that a fan favourite or two will be sent packing. But if the bookies at UNIBET have it right, then Israel’s Netta Barzilai will win Semi-Final 1 without any problems, as they have her down as the massive front-runner to cluck her way to the final.
The “Toy” singer, who currently tops the odds for the grand final, sits atop the odds here at 17/20. In recent weeks she’s gone viral and racked up more than 10 million views on her official music video on the Eurovision YouTube channel. And she now has more likes on her official video than any other Eurovision video ever. Momentum is on her side and the bookies’ attitude reflects that.
As with the odds to win the Eurovision 2018 grand final, Estonia, Czech Republic and Belgium follow with odds of 7/2, 5/1 and 9/1 respectively.
Bulgaria — who dominated the betting odds prior to the release of their song — are down as fifth favourite. Greece, Austria, Finland, Azerbaijan and Armenia round out the Top 10.
Semi-Final 1: Odds to Win
Semi-Final 1 Odds to Qualify
Of course, the odds to win the semi-final likely matter less to countries who are considered borderline qualifiers. They are more concerned with the odds to qualify for the final.
Sticking with the UNIBET Eurovision odds, bookies predict that the following countries will advance: Israel, Czech Republic, Estonia, Belgium, Bulgaria, Greece, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Austria and Cyprus.
That means — in the bookies’ eyes — that Finland, Belarus, Lithuania, FYR Macedonia, Croatia, Albania, Ireland, Switzerland, and Iceland are out.
That list includes several fan favourites — hello Finland, FYR Macedonia, Albania and Belarus.
Israel 1.02
Czech Republic 1.05
Estonia 1.05
Belgium 1.08
Bulgaria 1.18
Greece 1.20
Azerbaijan 1.40
Armenia 1.40
Austria 1.42
Cyprus 1.65
Finland 1.75
Belarus 1.90
Lithuania 2.10
FYR Macedonia 2.50
Croatia 2.95
Albania 4.00
Ireland 4.00
Switzerland 4.00
Iceland 8.00
Do you think that the bookies have it right in terms of winner and qualifiers? Who is the dark horse here who will provide a spoiler? Can fan favourites like Finland and FYR Macedonia push through? Let us know down below!
I think that the Israel song won’t do very well with the juries.
Í think that the majority you have miss the real tesón of the bets that they have hi some countrie and low some others the effect MONEY, more money they put at one songs, they are higher in that lists and for me Israel, is the countrie that gonna explote
AGREE BUT SOME PEOPLE GET OFFENDED BY THIS REAL FACT.
TODAY IS ALMOST A MONTH FOR THE 1ST SEMIFINAL THE HORSES SHOULD START THE RACE PRETTY SOON
Crazy odds ;-(((
I would swap Armenia and Azerbaijan with Finland and FYR Macedonia, but otherwise this sounds pretty accurate imo
I agree!
Israel flop. You hypers are only doing harm for Eurovision.
Finland will qualify.
Let´s go Croatia!!! C-r-a-z-y
Have you seen ALBANIA’s live? He is way better than many in the First-semifinal bloody arena. He has to be in the Final. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDRByA_vEVw
Hey, BELARUS and ALBANIA have to be in the Final! OK? 🙂
Please, Albania? Iceland? Ireland? 🙁
None, all of them are TERRIBLE, Iceland? Ireland? Honestly these are the worst songs this year
Weak but not listenable. That honor goes to Slovenia with Israel a close second.
**unlistenable
Sweden is also remarkably weak.
This is a tough one. There are many songs I like and most of them I want to see in the frand final. As for the winner, I don’t think it will be Israel. I’m leaning towards Estonia.
Watching the 10 potential qualifiers according to the bookies, I want all of them to the final, except Bulgaria and possibly Azerbaijan. However, I really want to see countries who usually struggle such as FYROM, Albania and Bealrus go through, because they have really good songs.
I am so sad and dissapointed because of the runningorder SF1 with tripple disadvantage for Albania. 🙁
Being in SF1, in the first half and third place.
I hope he will stake everything on one card and just perform like crazy 😉
Eugent will be in the final. I have this feeling.. He is too good on stage. 🙂
Well If we had to take only Betts odds there would be no contest anymore.
I LOVE SAARA AND ALSO FYM BOTH ARE GOOD.
WHY SOME COUNTRYS LIKE SWEDEN OR AUSTRALIA HAVE ALWAYS RED CARPET ON THIS CONTEST.
Please anyone can answer me?
And regarding too Israel odds we all know who has THE MONEY…………..
In any case is just an opinion please dont take it personal and good luck to all.
I completely agree! Somebody countries get the special treatment than others, even if the underdog country has a better song, you can be sure the better loved country will qualify ahead of it. But you get torn apart by commenters and be accused of being a “critical, negative, hater” on sites like this if you have that opinion.
Antisemitism (concerning your money remark) should not be allowed on this platform – It’s Eurovision: peace, peace, love, love!!!
Yeah, peave love (but only if sweden is in top 10).
I agree, that money comment was completely unnecessary.
OMG, you actually know “0” truth/history about israel.
Very sad
The thing with betting odds is that they don’t have as much credibility now, when the jury votes are counted separately, as they had before 2016. It’s much easier to predict televoting results, as top10s, top43s and so on are available everywhere, and to some extent predict jury voting based on geopolitical patterns, but each year we get some voting surprises from both sides.
I really wish there were no predictions beforehand (even though it’s impossible), because they may indirectly change the scores.
Or that people stopped neighbour/diaspora voting :p
About your last paragraph, imagine spaniards beying aloud to vote for Tu cancion, how do you think they will vote? It’ s the same Greece& Cyprus and Romania& Moldova, they have the same language, the same music market, Cyprusus singer this year is from Greece, in Romania the biggest pop stars are Moldavian etc. it’s not political it’s just the way it is.
Azerbaijan won’t qualify this year. You can chill out. I guess Armenia won’t qualify as well. So, a final without two main caucasian countries.
Georgia will probably do a Georgia 2016, and will surprise.
I prefer Georgia to Armenia, but that’s just my special taste. The text is wonderful and fits the music (All is yours what you share): Day – be longer and melt the snow to warm up the one, who felt cold in the night Shine for us not for me make the heart feel joyful for the others happiness The sun rises in time to grant people warmness and the earth keeps turning with love let understand the feelings of others, share with others what is the heart if not break into nine pieces to share with others the wind… Read more »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Umay1-8aTNo
May anybody tell me why this is considered sooooo much better? I can’t get it – it must be the beauty of the singer and the dress 🙁
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxJCS-U9vSA
It is about accessibility. The Estonian is an instant crowdpleaser, with showy vocals and all. The Georgian is a slow grower, but a wonderful contribution. Not everyone can be on top so it is great to have quality also-rans to the album.
Azerbaijan will qualify I think. They do deserve it. I love the song.
Does anyone know when exactly will the running order be revealed?
I’ve been thinking the same thing! Apparently it was supposed to be revealed this morning! 🙁
They tweeted 50 min ago that “Something is happening in one hour..”, so basically we should know soon. I know, the suspense is killing me too, I have been waiting for since ever.
UPDATE: IT’S OUT
I just want my favourites Greece, Belgium, Azerbaijan, Cyprus and Lithuania to qualify, don’t care for the rest to be honest.
I want Albania and Iceland to qualify. 🙂
I find the list reasonable, even though I don’t think Austria and Azerbaijan deserve to pass. As for Macedonia, I am sure it won’t make it to the final even if they deliver excellent stage performance which traditionally isn’t one of their strengths. I do believe that staging will as never before have the final say, but there are indeed 10 legit strong favs that will hardly slip.
Juts to add, if balkan countries unite there may be some unusual qualifiers, otherwise for me these 6 are definitely in:
Israel, Estonia, Bulgaria, Greece, Cyprus, Belgium…
room for 4 more, probably:
Czechia, Belarus, Finland……
I agree with you that if the Balkans united we could do miracles 😀
I don’t particularly like FYROM’s song but I’ll probably vote for it, along with Albania and Austria, cause it deserves to be in the final more than other songs. If it manages to go to the final, I think the song will do well.
That’s weird, why Armenia considered as a qualifier?? That’s not good at all. I can’t imagine somebody voting for that entry. Ireland, Albania and Lithuania are much better.
Just swap Armenia with Albania and I’m happy with those qualifiers. Armenia is boring me to death.
Really weird how everyone seems to like Albania, yet many think it won’t qualify….
Think of Macedonia, will get clearer…
Macedonia is 100% non-qualifier for me. A messy song, that will get even messier live .
But we are not talking about you, but about a song that people mostly like however still doesn’t get to the final.. that was the topic I believe..
Almost agree with the bookmakers. I’d swap Armenia with Lithuania or Croatia as the 10th qualifier. Won’t be surprised if it were Belarus too. I’ve been changing this 10th country but otherwise I’ve constantly believed that the other 9 will qualify.
It’s really hard to predict this semi all the acts that are predicted to qualify are all really good and deserving but damn Macedonia is so good and I would love to see it qualify as well as Finland and Belarus
What I THINK will happen:
Estonia
Israel
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Greece
Azerbaijan
Belgium
Belarus
Austria
Cyprus
What I WANT to happen:
Estonia
Israel
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Greece
Azerbaijan
Belgium
Albania
Finland
Cyprus
I’m already sad, because I am almost sure that Albania won’t make it. 🙁
It’s a musical tragedy if you are right about Albania.
Indeed! if the chicken song qualifies and MALL not, I will be very sad… very .
Macedonia is definetly a qualifier at this point even with bad staging. Her voice is too good to be passed by the juries and televote. Im fine with Finland non q , she is total mess live , Armenia is non q for me , Albania will Q , another strong vocal live that is hard to miss.
Finland will definitely qualify, as will FYR Macedonia and Albania.
Is this wishful thinking or have you some indications for it
ß
not ß but ?
My prediction in final, Israel,Belgium,Bulgaria,Estonia,Azerbaijan.For rest of 5 places fight between 9 countries Czech republic,Greece, Armenia,Cyprus,Finland, Austria,Belarus ,F.Y.R Macedonia,Albania. I think 5 will be Finland,Czech Republic,Belarus(thanks to televote) Greece,Austria(thanks to juries),Armenia will be on 11place,Macedonia 12, Albania 13, Cyprus 14, Lithuania 15, Iceland 16,Ireland 17, Croatia 18, Switzeland last on 19place
I agree with 9 of the predicted qualifiers. I’d change Armenia with Lithuania. They sure believe that Armenia will qualify, because the diaspora, but won’t happen this year, not in a semifinal like this.
Israel, Estonia, Czechia, Belgium, Bulgaria, Greece, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Austria an Lithuania are deserved finalists IMHO. I like Ireland and Albania, too. But this semifinal is too strong. :/
Finland
Cyprus
Bulgaria
Israel
Austria
Greece
Ireland
Switzerland
Belgium
Czech Republic
Would be my qualifiers
lol @me, i have ireland and lithuania in my top 2 overall then macedonia, croatia and greece in top 10. Other qualifiers i would want cyprus, czech republic, belgium, belarus and bulgaria
although it’s sad because i have finland, israel, estonia and azerbaijan in my top 26 there are just a lot of fab songs
Personally,I would replace Azerbaijan, Armenia and Estonia with Finland, Ireland and Switzerland. Azerbaijan has the worst song this year, Armenia is good but nothing special while Estonia won’t appeal to everyone. I find Finland, Ireland and Switzerland to be better songs than the other 3….but this is Eurovision, underdogs will always be underdogs, even when they have good songs…
Based on Eugent’s live rendition of Mall (link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDRByA_vEVw) Albania will most probably be juries’ favorite. So yeah, no, sorry, bookies are wrong.
Pretty much as in 2012. I remember Suus was so despised and had virtually no chances at all to qualify. But surprise surprise, it was the juries’ winner in its semifinal.
Albania 2012and Albania 2018 can compare. First was very strange song for conest and we did t had similar song in eurovision (same did Latvia in 2016), second is pop rock song and we had similar song in past. Albania have chance only if juries push in final, like they did with Georgia 2016(But that song sound like uk ,USA rock song from some band, and they sang song in english)
Cann t instead can
They are right about Finland and FYR Macedonia, they won’t qualify. Armenia won’t qualify either, Albania will qualify instead.
Greece and Cyprus actually have decent songs this year worthy of the final so I’ll be p*ssed if this is the year neither of them qualify! I would, however, love to see Azerbaijan fail to qualify this year as they really don’t deserve to! Armenia has a quality song but there are just better songs that could be in the final.
I think the qualifiers should be:
1. Israel
2. Estonia
3. Finland
4. Macedonia
5. Greece
6. Cyprus
7. Belgium
8. Albania
9. Belarus
10. Czech Republic
I don’t think that FYR Macedonia was ever a favourite to qualify since their release song. And I think Bulgaria won’t do it this year. And don’t put Cyprus so sure into a final spot, they are there, just at the edge. However I think Finland will do it.
Switzerland will be in the final mark my words! And yes, Finland will be out – I can’t stand it. Albania will advance and Cyprus will be out.
1) ISRAEL Q+
2) ESTONIA Q+
3) BULGARIA Q+
4) BELGIUM Q
5) GREECE q+
6) CZECH q+
7) FINLAND q+
8) BELARUS q
9) CYPRUS q
10) AUSTRIA q
11) AZERBAIJAN q
12) ARMENIA q
13) IRELAND q –
14) ICELAND q –
15) ALBANIA q –
16) LITHUANIA q –
17) FYR q –
18) SWITZERLAND q –
19) CROATIA q –
There is usually some shocks when the results come in so really this doesn’t mean a lot until we see what happens. I’m sure Finland will be in the final. It’s a catch uptempo track sung by a professional who has made a name for herself in atleast 2 of the other countries voting in this semi (United Kingdom and Ireland). Really don’t see why Azerbaijan deserves to qualify, its by far one of the worst songs they ever sent and by far the worst entry this year. I know Ireland haven’t sent a strong entry this year but I… Read more »
Finland will make the final szeck republic or Armenia wont.
Personally, I would really like FYR Macedonia and Albania to qualify
If this trend sticks, strategy voting rules! My top 10 needs to strengthen Lithuania, Belarus and Macedonia. Trying to analyze with previous years results in mind, I think Azarbaijan and Armenia(sniff!…) might be out. But then one remembers Finland and Estonia from last year… SF1 is a truly a death pit!
The fact that they have Armenia as a qualifier invalidates their predictions.
12 Points. Czech Republic
10 Points. Belgium
08 Points. FYR Macedonia
07 Points. Switzerland
06 Points. Finland
05 Points. Belarus
04 Points. Cyprus
03 Points. Estonia
02 Points. Croatia
01 Point. Albania
I have a feeling Greece, Armenia and Azerbaijan won’t make the final…. just a hunch… even tho I love the Greek song…. I don’t think the song will translate for viewers or jurors….
Greece is WAY too high anyways, as always. They already should have missed the final last year with that girl who couldn’t sing to save her life.
I think it’ll be grossly overrated by the jury, which should allow her to make it. But the public won’t give an Ajax, it’s too uneventful.
Lol. I don’t give a I don’t give a I don’t give a I don’t give a I don’t give a I don’t give a I don’t give a I don’t give a I don’t give a
Greece will never be overrated by the jury! The juries actually hate Greece… But I think that the audience have already loved the Greek song this year… So it will qualify easily
Juries have nothing against Greece, they just don’t like their tragic songs.
Oh and how about France’s tragic song this year which is about refugees crossing over to France? France’s tragic song is as tragic as Greece’s song.
Finland was #5 on the betting odds to win in 2015! Just sayin’!
I haven’t been so into Eurovision before 2017. Can anyone explain to me why it seems to be that Armenia and Azerbaijan do always qualify regardless of the quality of their songs?
They often do great live performances (exception: Azerbaijan 2016). Oh and Armenia did not qualify in 2011.
Voting blocks.
Armenia used to have at least 8 points on lock from the televote of like ten countries because of their diaspora, but now this effect seems to have faded.
Azerbaijan blatantly buys votes. Look at 2016: they won the Czech and Hungarian televote in the semi, but they got 0 from them in the final. How is this even possible?
It truly is incredible how that rubbish could get a single vote. Personal taste aside, Azerbaijan should not be eligible to participate anymore if them buying votes is true and by the looks of it, it’s almost indisputable. Democracy my ass.
As long as they bring in their coins, the EBU won’t curr! But what they do couldn’t be any more obvious.
Europe loves Azerbaijan, no doubt about it 😛
I agree with this prediction, however I think Austria could surprisingly stay in the Semi if the performance is not good. I hope not because it’s a great song. By the way, when is the running order being revealed?
I hope you are right. It hooks me but I don’t like that it does – I can’t explain it, maybe I don’t like that the gospel background choir is a main point of the song.
Everything will be decided on the draw, especially in the semi where there are so many favorites. Remember in 2016 when Belgium was seen as borderline but then because it performed last, it was a sure fire qualifier. Then there’s the live performance and we can’t be certain if all the singers can deliver, we know Netta and Elina can but what about Equinox or Cesar? Making bets right now is just pointless and high risk.
For me FYR Macedonia is a winner. This year isn’t good, how can they won’t qualify?
Because their song sounds like 10 different songs in 3 minutes and because the jury sabotages them all the time (they didn’t qualify FOUR times because of the juries despite being top ten in televote).
You forget in 2010 and 2014 the televote sabotaged them…
I just DON’T see Azerbaijan, Austria, and Armenia ABOVE Finland (as long as she sorts out the staging), Macedonia, and Albania by that much — and I know Czech Rep. has been a fave the whole way but I feel like it might struggle — my bottom is Croatia by a LONG way
Croatia will sure be near the bottom–it’s a cheap version of Belgium’s song.