The OGAE Poll 2018 is drawing to a close and one country remains way out in front of the rest. 

Israel has led since the start of the competition and now has a total of 323 points. That’s a 63-point lead on Netta’s nearest competition France. Madame Monsieur are now the only act capable of catching the “Toy” singer.

Their total of 260 gives them a lot of work to do, but victory remains a mathematical possibility. Everyone else is out of the race for first place.

France looks increasingly secure in second too. Nearest rival Saara Aalto from Finland is adrift by almost 100 points. Finland’s performance has to date been powered by a broad spread of small scores. Saara has failed to win a single douze points, but she has won points from 25 clubs that have voted so far. Her total is 165.

Australia follows in fourth. Jessica Mauboy is back in the Top Five and in striking distance of the Top Three with a total of 141 points. Czech Republic‘s Mikolas Josef follows in fifth. He picked up 8 points from OGAE Germany which has helped him maintain momentum.

The rest of the top 10 remains competitive. Less than 50 points separate sixth place Bulgaria (120) and tenth place Estonia (72).

Six more countries have also made it onto the scoreboard.

The best new performer is Azerbaijan in 21stAisel got points from three clubs, including 8 points from OGAE Switzerland. Lithuania picked up points from neighbours Estonia (3) and Latvia (2), while Ireland gained 4 points from Latvia.

Latvia‘s Laura Rizzotto received 3 points from OGAE Russia and Serbia starts on the scoreboard with 2 points from OGAE Slovenia.

Moldova also picked up 2 points, this time from OGAE Norway.


1. Israel – 323 points
2. France – 260 points
3. Finland – 165 points
4. Australia – 141 points
5. Czech Republic – 134 points
6. Bulgaria – 120 points
7. Greece – 102 points
8. Belgium – 102 points
9. Sweden – 80 points
10. Estonia – 72 points
11. Cyprus – 70 points
12. Denmark – 65 points
13. Austria – 57 points
14. Italy – 47 points
15. Belarus – 17 points
16. Germany – 17 points
17. Ukraine – 15 points
18. F.Y.R Macedonia – 15 points
19. Norway – 12 points
20. Spain – 10 points
21. Azerbaijan – 10 points
22. Poland – 5 points
23. Lithuania – 5 points
24. Ireland – 4 points
25. Latvia – 3 points
26. Serbia – 2 points
27. Moldova – 2 points
28. Russia – 1 point

Albania, Armenia, Croatia, Georgia, Hungary, Iceland, Malta, Montenegro, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Slovenia, Switzerland, The Netherlands and United Kingdom have all yet to receive any points.


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46 Comments on "OGAE Poll 2018: Six countries pick up first points, as France cements hold on second spot and Australia closes on top three"

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2012 & 2013: The OGAE Poll winner won the contest.
2014 & 2015: The OGAE Poll winner ended up third.
2016 & 2017: The OGAE Poll winner ended up sixth.

Let’s see what the new biennial will bring us in this random pattern. I predict 9th. The juries will not go for it.

Oh my God .People you are getting so bent out of shape over polls. I wouldn’t wipe my backside on any poll that is published. What will happen on the night .Anything can happen. In reality not enough people are polled for an accurate response and it is not carried out over a long enough period of time . These polls rate up there with the betting odds as to who is going to win Eurovision . Every year it’s usually a rank outsider that wins . I think anyone could win this year and I feel they being a… Read more »

I think either Luxembourg or Monaco will winin this year .


It is not a good songcontest this year. For me Georgia stands way out and then from a certain distance Italy, Denmark.
I don’t mind Czech republic to win, they deserve it.


Here s an update on my algortihm (Odds+Youtibe+streams+website votings)
Australia just took over Bulgaria , and now 3rd. Abd Finland took over Spain.

1 Israel
2 France
3 Australia (+1)
4 Bulgaria (-1)
5 Belgium
6 Sweden
7 Austria
8 Czech Rep
9 Estonia
10 Norway
11 Belarus
12 Finland (+1)
13 Spain (-1)
14 Ukraine
15 Cyprus
16 Germany
17 Greece (+2)
18 Italy
19 The Netherlands (-2)
20 Denmark (+2)
21 Azerbaijan
22 Portugal (-2)
23 FYR Macedonia
24 Latvia
25 Switzerland (+1)
26 UK (-1)
27 Lithuania
28 Moldova (+1)
29 Ireland (-1)
30 Albania
31 Poland
32 Russia
33 Armenia
34 Hungary
35 Malta
36 Georgia
37 San Marino
38 Serbia
39 Croatia
40 Romania
41 Iceland
42 Slovenia
43 Montenegro


How does your algorithm work? What percentage is ascribed to what?


50% odds, 30 % youtube views and likes, 10 % spotlight and I tunes charts, rest is equally distributed between Wiwijury, eurojury, Ogae and Infe polls. The number 1 song has 100 points, the rest is calculated accordingly, and updated on a daily basis by an AI.


Thanks for doing these polls ; they definitely point us in the right direction , but they are poor on picking up on late swings
France is slowly climbing and picking up buzz…if I had to bet right now I’d say it’s Israel and France , but i’m not sure how those conservative and more traditional countries in the Balkans and E Europe will react to Israel’s zany song ?


Many songs have numerous official videos, and been online for a shorter/longer time. You need an algorithm for that alone…


@Nope that was absolutely correct.

poe-tay-toe chips

Just predicting it here and now, I think the top 10 is gonna end up being made up of Belgium, Israel, Bulgaria, Sweden, France, Czech Republic, Australia, Italy, Finland, and Estonia (in no particular order)

Also I bet the Netherlands is gonna get 11th for the third year in a row

I think israel will win. It’s out of my top 10. France is my number 1 but the last few years people get behind a song after the semifinals and tend to support it till the final. France has a great song and the package but there are at least a bunch of other songs that compete in the semis and have strong potential to win. I think France would have won if it competed at the semis. Generally big6 won’t ever win if they don’t compete at the semis, except there is a song that is clearly above all… Read more »

and I „think“ that Bulgaria will win this year!

what now?

Love Netta

Israel is going to win!
Tel Aviv 2019 here go..I wish Gal Gadot could host ..but she is too super star for eurovision.
Maybe Bar Refaeli ?


Love Netta, you are wrong! It is most likely Jerusalem 2018 🙂
Good luck Netta!

Love Netta

NoGeoblocks You mean Jerusalem 2019? 🙂


Finland is top 3…perhaps win


Yes, she will beat Netta easily. Saara is fantastic on stage and vocally.


Israel won’t win. It’s a good song and catchy as hell and will get Top 10, even Top 5. But it won’t win. I’m calling Bulgaria or France right now.

Preferably France as it’s my number 1 and a much better song.
Estonia, Czech Republic, Australia (surprise surprise), Belgium and Finland are a tad overrated in my opinion. Not bad songs per say, just not worthy of their particularly high placing.


I still have no idea just why the Czech Republic is in the top ten’s positively juvenile …please cancel this Check

Netta’s song is just so divisive ; just check out how many down votes are on her youtube video


Czech Republic is so not deserving of a Top 10 place. The song isn’t even THAT good.


Actually percentage wise (number of people down voted VS number of views) France has more dislikes than Israel… And I’m sure many other countries do as well. Alfred5… You’re such a demagogue…

Love Netta

@Darren Why you so sure Israel wont win??? I think its going to win big time!


Oh well then, that settles it !

Netta’s like an over inflated balloon that is slowly deflating


I just think the hype about Israel will have burnt out by the time she gets to Lisbon. Also, we don’t really know anything about the staging so I don’t know why you are so sure. If she wins, then great, I do like the song but I just don’t thinking she’s will. I predict she will win the televotes but France or Bulgaria will win the jury vote. With the eventual winner being France or Bulgaria. But I’ll still be happy if Israel won. I just don’t think it will appeal to everyone.

Love Netta

@Darren The Israeli stage will be the best they ever did.. thanks for your replay. I think france is good but not strong as Israel..agree with u about Bulgaria.


France cannot win this year, they are more divisive than Israel, that’s for sure. 43 countries are voting, not the Left Bank,and the political zeitgeist is not really with them. And I wouldn’t even count on the juries, the song itself is not exactly groundbreaking. Just my opinion.


Thanks Latvia for the 4 points 🙂

Atleast someone …somewhere has some love for yet another underrated Irish entry.


Israel are not gonna winn. Finland for victory


I think Same.. Finland win


I hope this will happen. Go Finland!!

Yo Yo Saba

In the top scoring countries you wrote Isarel instead of Israel


Woah, a bunch of goodies is still out.
Esctracker has finally been updated for 2018 (link in my nick)!


These OGAE polls don’t mean much , but when combined with Bookies odds, Youtube views and other polls they do point in the right direction ..not necessarily who will win , but who have a realistic chance of winning

As of now Israel….France ..Bulgaria …Estonia …Australia that order
IMO the winner is one of the above !

I think Israel has more chances to flop than to win, it usually does worse than expected due to politics, lack of friendly neighbours and this year also juries that might prefer many other entries than this one. Bulgaria would be a nice choice if they weren’t bringing the leading singers, the song writers and even the freaking choreographer from abroad. That’s just beyond me how that’s even allowed. Next year Shawn Mendes will represent Azerbaijan with a song that Ed Sheeran wrote (sorry, co-wrote with some Azery dude) and everybody would be fine with that? I think France might… Read more »

I think you may be right ; France is looking better by the day’s less divisive than Israel and more genuine than Bulgaria …. Estonia is too niche and probably lacks populist support ..Australia has a good singer with a poor generic song ..France has a soul and is not merely about the music
Every year there is a cluster of songs suitable to win but the victory usually goes to a song that is in some way different and stands out from the pack


I wouldn’t say France is less divisive. If anything it’s one of the most divisive songs this year.




Also I think Estonia might be another fan wank like last year. Israel depends entirely on whether or not it will be seen as a fun novelty act and nothing more. France and Bulgaria depends on staging and mood. Do people want yet another depressing serious winner for the third year in a row?
So no the bookies and OGAE don’t point to anything.


France doesn’t have to rely upon epic staging ; they have shown numerous times that they can sing live and sing well ; look at their performance down in Madrid last Saturday when they got the most applause of any act including Spain


They need more than just singing well. They need the package


And what ”package” did Salvador have last year ..where was his staging ? If you have a powerful message you don’t need to be over reliant on staging


Oh Salvador had the package. Bulgaria too. They need to present the strong message with strong staging, like Jamala. Just relying on song wont do it


Or Finland, of course.


Is this also fake news? As I have seen a lot of comments about Saara and her certain DQ or she is just gaining more and more so called haters here as well for some reason…she must be dangerous LOL


I don’t know what the actual duck you’re talking about