One has been the frontrunner to win the grand final of Eurovision 2018 from the very beginning. The other has dazzled ever since landing in Lisbon, watching her odds narrow day by day. And now, hours before the Semi-Final 1 jury show, the bookies believe that Israel’s Netta and Estonia’s Elina Nechayeva will sail through to the final.
Israel, which has been the favourite to win this semi-final from the very first odds reveal, remains on top with odds as low as 11/8.
Despite a somewhat disappointing first rehearsal, Netta has stayed strong, returning to her second rehearsal with stronger camera cuts, more attitude and a renewed sense of optimism.
At the moment the bookies have her down as the clear winner. Following behind are Estonia with odds as low as 4/1. That puts her level with Cyprus and the Czech Republic, who are also as low as 4/1.
Bulgaria, Greece, Austria, Finland, Belgium and Belarus round out the top 10 in terms of who will win this semi-final.
SEMI-FINAL 1 ODDS TO WIN ACCURATE 16:50CET
SEMI-FINAL 1 ODDS TO QUALIFY: ACCURATE 16:50CET
For many countries, however, the main priority is making it to the Grand Final. That makes the odds to qualify perhaps more significant than the odds to win this semi.
The bookies believe these 10 acts will qualify for the final: Israel, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Bulgaria, Greece, Austria, Lithuania, Armenia and Belgium.
That means Azerbaijan, Switzerland, Finland, Belarus, Croatia, Ireland, Albania, FYR Macedonia and Iceland are out.
The non-qualifiers currently include fan favorite Finland. The bookies also think that Azerbaijan is out for the first time ever.
FOR MORE EUROVISION ODDS NEWS CLICK HERE
Here is the update on algorithm. Israel is down to 6th. In semi 2, Sweden, Norway, Moldova, Ukraine, Australia, Denmark, Hungary, Netherlands, Poland and Latvia are predicted to qualify, and it ‘seems’ more certain than semi 1. 1 Cyprus 94.41 2 France 92.50 3 Sweden 87.06 4 Norway 84.85 5 Bulgaria 83.38 6 Israel 82.94 7 Estonia 80.29 8 Czech Rep 78.82 9 Austria 71.62 10 Moldova 69.41 11 Lithuania 67.06 12 Ukraine 62.06 13 Finland 61.62 14 Germany 60.00 15 Australia 60.00 16 Spain 57.65 17 Ireland 54.93 18 Italy 54.85 19 Portugal 52.50 20 Denmark 43.24 21 Hungary… Read more »
Bonsoir Lisboa,
Voici mes qualifiés pour cette 1ère demi finale :
Grèce
Chypre
Estonie
A.R.Y. Macédoine
Finlande
Lituanie
Arménie
Irlande
Rép. Tchèque
Albanie
Il risque d’y avoir pas mal de surprises ce soir. Je me réjouis. Que le meilleur gagne !
Bisous.
This semi will be a bloodbath – one or two will not qualify that would do if they were on Thursday night . Definite (based on draw order only and not an indication of preference) – Czech Republic, Israel, Estonia, Bulgaria, Cyprus Probably – Lithuania, Austria Likely – Greece (which will get Cyprus votes) Finland (good live performer and the UK is voting in this semi final and she was an X Factor contestant in UK) Maybe (choose one of) – Azerbaijan (might actually need Armenians to vote for it!), Belgium (a bit sick of Bond movie theme songs), Armenia… Read more »
i was taken aback about Finland, it would be a shame for her not to go through as the act is certainly one of the best on stage.
cyprus number one in the bookies ? whats’s wrong with the odds this year ? !!!!!
The odds are largely people-driven. They are more likely to anticipate where the TELEVOTERS will go; but mark my words; the JURIES will see things just a bit differently.
i will hope that saara can reach the final in this hardest tough semi ever!
no monsters in the final no fun.
Copy/paste from the Press Center votes on escportugal (doesn’t need translation I guess
) : “1.º Chipre – 103 pontos 2.º Lituânia – 67 pontos 3.º Suíça – 27 pontos 4.º Estónia – 22 pontos 5.º Bulgária – 20 pontos 6.º República Checa – 14 pontos 7.º Finlândia – 12 pontos 8.º Irlanda – 11 pontos 9.º Azerbaijão – 10 pontos 10.º Albânia – 8 pontos 11.º Áustria – 7 pontos 12.º Israel – 4 pontos 13.º Bélgica – 3 pontos 14.º Arménia – 2 pontos 15.º Croácia – 2 pontos 16.º Grécia – 2 pontos 17.º ARJ Macedónia… Read more »
Switzerland. What a surprise.
Israel falling apart big time.
How about Portugal get’s suspended for this?!
Is this the jury votes? The top 3 is so bad.
The press voted. Obviously they overestimated Switzerland’s chances.
They crapped out on Switzerland and Azerbaijan. Did they really think Israel would collapse that bad?
Tonight I’ll watch it as the Grand Final!! My top 10 are acting, really sad to lose so many good ones.
Thursday won’t really be interesting compared to tonight…
Did you see that CYPRUS IS THE NEW FAVORITE TO WIN THE WHOE COMPETITION ?!!
I’ll be happy if Belgium, Finland and Estonia make it would be good if Ireland made it too but don’t think they will
Can we say it out loud? Switzerland to the grand final? Or is anybody scared Switzerland might actually qualify for once?
Switzerland has a really great song. If this song were Sweden’s, nobody would have doubts about its qualification. So pity.
It won’t qualify, especially in semi like this, song and performance is not so bad, but forgettable.
Swap Armenia for Albania an I’d agree that this is probably how this will turn out
On. Point. *sheds a tear*
Have you guys seen the press poll?!?!
its INSANE who votes in this???
They should better focus on their press job then to play some kind of voters and ”experts”
Preach!
Definite Qualifiers (5): Estonia, Israel, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Cyprus
Good Chance of Qualifying (5): Austria, Finland, Croatia, Greece, Belgium
Toss Ups (5): Armenia, Albania, Belarus, Lithuania, Azerbaijan
Definite Non-Qualifyiers (4): Iceland, Ireland, FYR Macedonia, Switzerland
Just hearing about the jury show and I believe Croatia, Albania, Cyprus and Ireland were among the best. Also read Bulgaria has a complete disaster, could be a shock non-qualifier.
My prediction for tomorrow I semi final
1.Bulgaria
2.Israel
3.Estonia
4.Cyprus
5.Lithuania
6.Austria
7.Czech Republic
8.Azerbaijan
9.Belarus
10.Finland
11.Belgium
12.Greece
13.Armenia
14.Albania
15.Ireland
16.Croatia
17.F.Y.R Macedonia
18.Iceland
19.Switzerland
I have not watched a single second of the rehearsals; but based on the songs and videos that were released, here is how I picture the first semifinal:
9.61 Estonia
9.52 Bulgaria
9.50 Albania
9.50 Israel
9.46 Austria
9.46 Greece
9.46 Lithuania
9.43 Czech Republic
9.42 Armenia
9.37 Belarus
so I have heard songs from jury show and there was realy 2 good surprises- Austia and Lithuania- so they are back in the game again. Shock was – Bulgaria- worst entry they have done here (maybe too nervous). Israel was total mess as predicted- esecially weak was the end of song- so no big point from jury 100%
Estonia was very good. So my prediction :
Sure finalists :
Estonia
Austria
Lithuania
Finland
Albania
Cypros
Borderline
Irasel
Azerbajan
Swicerland
Belarus
Iceland
ESCUnited also watched the jury performance from Lisbon and they all agreed that this was Netta’s best performance since rehearsals started. One of them even argued she will win this semi. Wiwibloggs predicts also that she will sail through. So please don’t speak in definitive terms – because you clearly have no idea what juries will do. Thank you.
Like Wiwibloggs,ESCUnited , nor you know either. Best songs ha. More like best barn animal music. Juries unlike most voters have actually musical experience and I’m certain they won’t let chicken music easily sail through
Most juries are past contestants or past composers or past producers in ESC – they know all about this competition. No reason to think they will not share the same love that the ESC community has given this song and Netta making it number 1 in all lists coming into Lisbon. You have a clear distaste and hatred, to a point where you use derogatory language – thats totally your choice, but prepare to be disappointed tomorrow.
And now Switzerland also left Azerbaijan behind. For some reason, the bookies went crazy about the siblings on the last 24 hours.
But I was talking about the odds to qualify, not to win the contest.
1. Cyprys <3 Black, dark horse
2. Czech Republic
3. Estonia
4. Austria , big progress
5.Israel
6. Greece
7. Bulgaria
8. Finland, big disappointment
9. Belgium
10. Lithuania
Cyprus is not a dark horse…hello is like 3rd in the odds!
WOW! Now Cyprus is first!
So this is a very hard semi-final. This is my prediction (NOT OPINION. PREDICTION).
Sure qualifiers: Israel, Estonia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Bulgaria
Might qualify (likely): Finland, Greece, Belgium
Borderline (fighting for the 2 last spots): Albania, Lithuania, Austria, Croatia, Azerbaijan, Belarus
Likely to not qualify, but who knows: Armenia, Switzerland
Sorry, bye: FYR. Macedonia (the song is in my top 10 lol), Ireland, Iceland
It will be interesting
My personal favourites are Lithuania, Albania, Estonia, Croatia and Belarus. I will be sad if Switzerland doesn’t make it though 
I want Lithuania, Macedonia, Switzerland, Belgium and Finland in the final
People laughed at me putting money on Estonia but I really think they have a very good chance of winning!
Belarus is absolutely qualifying, mark my words! I really hope Abania makes it, I think juries will push it. I think Austria , Armenia and even Estonia wil not qualify- I can see the downvotes pouring but I’m ok, it’s not from the guts, I have my reasons. For starters only try to imagen the juries reaction to the Led dress, so Portugal said no leds, let the music triumph and they bring their own expensive ripped dress, and meanwhile they know that their own delegations had to do without led, just lights and props. Plenty of reasons more, if… Read more »
I literally only want Azerbaijan to qualify
Everyone else has their favorites going in, like Czech and Israel and Bulgaria, But the only one I want to see in the final might not make it…
Same! To be honest, I just want Azerbaijan to qualify and I don’t care who makes up the remaining 9 slots.
1Cyprus,2Austria,3Ireland,4Bulgary,5Czech Rep,6Belarus,7Armenia,8Switzerland,9Croatia,10Albania
hope this ten go to the final
Albania will qualify due to Albanian diaspora in Austria, Switzerland, Greece, FYR Macedonia…..and all these countries are in 1 semi .
Last year, I saw an ad from RTSH where they were shamelessly trying to get their diaspora ready to vote lol.
I really didin’t saw this advertisment that are you talking about. So i don’t have an opinion!!! But the Albania’s song is really good and his voice is also amazing ..and i think the jury will vote posivitely for Albania
For final countries must to collect minimum 100 points to go to final. Albania will gets maybe 12 points from Austria, Switzerland, Macedonia from televote that is 36 points, from Greece 10 points ,12 points go to Cyprus. This is 46 points they must collect 54 points from all juries and other countries in televote. Albania deserve to go to final, but we saw in past that juries doesn t support Albania very much (only one time in 2012).
I’m surprised to see Lithuania as possible qualifier. Maybe it’s a dark horse this year. I think it deserves more to qualify for the Final than France!
israeli song is foolish.. its title should be CHICKEN SONG by NETTA
YOU ARE A FOOLISH
israel’s song is great and it’s gonna win #dealwithit
and cyprus singing about how hot she is … thats better???? hypocrits
Here is the latest gossip from Lisboa
This morning one of Serbia’s singers was spotted leaving Armenia’s singer Sevak’s room which they spent night together after party. blonde one….
alfred cheated on amaia with foureira #almaiaisoverparty
Saara will qualify…no doubt about it!. Great song, great singer…#monsters #snowfairies #esc #ketsdothis
Lol, people thinking Albania will struggle to qualify, but they forget Switzerland, Austria, Macedonia, Greece and Belgium vote in this semi. Which is translated in roughly 56 diaspora televotes. Lol.
And instead of complaining and sending “thoughts and prayers” to Eugent, how about ACTUALLY VOTING FOR HIM TOMORROW?
Exactly! #squadgoals
Come on, Jury is also voting, televotes only 50%. We can see approx. what televoters might like…. but Jury.. nooone knows. Jury always know how to surprise
Symbolism
Feminism to an extreme
The following countries better prove the bookies wrong tomorrow: (in other words, qualify!)
* Albania
* Azerbaijan
* Ireland
* Iceland
* Finland
* Switzerland
*Croatia
*Lithuania
It’s impossible for all of those to qualify. And considering half of them are almost certain non-qualifiers (not only by bookies, but by press, fans, polls, etc.), you’re gonna be very sad tomorrow.
Please vote for Belgium! I would die if Sennek doesn’t qualify tomorrow… :p It’s a SOS from Belgian fans who feel as bad as last year with Blanche who ruined her song in semi.
she cant sing the high notes and the staging is dull, so no
Sure
”Toy” is like ”Yodel It”
Only televote can save it.
Also, remember each semi the juries save one song from the cruel televote and vice-versa. I can see Lithuania being saved by the juries and Finland being saved by the televote (maybe Macedonia) and Semi 2 I can see the juries saving Malta and the televote saving Hungary
Finland will loose the final simply because they have made it a circus act. Sometimes less is more…
I can’t believe you guys made FYROM a “lock”……you may live to regret that decision!
1. Cyprus 100%
2. Estonia 100%
3. Greece 100%
4. Israel 100%
5. Finland 80%
6. Bulgaria 80%
7. Croatia 65%
8. Austria 65%
9. Czech Republic or Albania 50%
10. Switzerland or Lithuania 50%
as long as skinny estonia and finland qualify I agree!
Hopefully Albania and Switzerland make it to Saturday as well.
oh god no thank you
With the rehearsals my opinion on who will qualify has changed a little, so here is my prediction:
Sure:
1. Israel
2. Bulgaria
3. Estonia
4. Czech Republic
Very likely:
5. Cyprus
6. Austria
Likely even if they have disappointed:
7. Belgium
8. Greece
Really struggling:
9. Albania
10. Lithuania
Austria will qualify <7th.
Albania 9th will never happen.
Albania should be in the Top 5
Bottom 5 honey x
My wigs, tissues and defibrillator (in case of heart attack) are ready for tomorrow night.
Who do you think will snatch your wig?
Well Elina snatched it first months ago so I had to order new wigs. Cyprus is also contender for that
oh my since December I have been left wigless. rude of elina smh.
I am hoping for finland and Macedonia too otherwise tears
Lithuania and Armenia will definitely stay in semis, so there’ll be 2 free passes for either Finland, Belarus, Croatia or even Ireland, depending on how the televote will respond to their performances. Saara Aalto might benefit from fans votes.
deffo top 5 in uk televote
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tXa5VXh5Jyg
how kind of equinox to clear the top three for estonia xoxo
I just have a feeling, that Czech Republic won’t make the final, placing 11-13. Hopefully it won’t happen, but it’s just an intuition.
My predicted qualifiers right now are (in random order): Austria, Croatia, Israel, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Armenia, Cyprus, Ireland, Estonia and Belgium (maybe again being announced last). But I’m REALLY excited for the actual results, and I’m 99% sure I missed some.
The qualifers: ESTONIA, ISRAEL, BULGARIA, CYPRUS, CZECH, GREECE
6th-10th: FINLAND, BELGIUM, ALBANIA, AUSTRIA.
Maybe qualifies: Armenia, Azerbaijan
Very small chance: Lithuania, Belarus, Ireland
Won’t go to the final: Croatia, Switzerland, Iceland and FYRO Macedonia.
As long as Albania qualifies, I agree with the 6th-10th area.
I agree. A reasonable prediction.
If Albania doesnt make it to the final that means albanian diaspore votes will go to Eleni. Isnt already clear enough that Cyprus is this year’s real dark horse?
I don’t think so because Ermal from Italy is also Albanian. He is more likable, compared to Eleni who is covered with controversy. Still wondering if she even knows Albanian. Ermal speaks Albanian perfectly and is going to do a free concert in Tirana in June.
where is the eleni controversy you speak of lmaoo
she is one of the classiest and most genuine acts ESC have ever seen
google it lol I can’t go through it, I don’t wanna argue.
I don’t want to argue either! I’m just curious, is it anything sinister?
Omg I wrote a long detailed reply but it said it has to await moderation! It has to be approved
ahhhh now!!! maybe try again without writing using any “flag” words maybe? thanks so much by the way!
For some years, 2008-2014, she wouldn’t admit to being Albanian, once said she was Mexican (2011) but later retracted and refused to answer the question again… And after she came out she said her grandfather was Greek and she was naturalized quickly, which people took with a grain of salt because rumors only started after a passport mishap. Anyway, good for her to come out and be proud of her roots, I think that also brought her very close to the gay community. However because of the controversy, she is not exactly a role model for the Albanian diaspora, at… Read more »
Don’t shoot the messenger please. Just stating the story for those who asked for it.
I think the votes from albanian diaspora they will go to Italy because Ermal Meta is Albanian..not to Cyprus