After semi-final 1 rehearsals, one thing is clear. Opera-pop is making its way up in the public’s eyes.
A few weeks ago, Australia’s odds to win semi-final 1 were sitting fairly low at eighth. But, with an insanely out-there and outstanding performance today, Kate Miller-Heidke‘s odds have shot up to fourth most likely to win the semi-final.
Perched atop a precarious platform, Miller-Heidke models a fabulous gown and fabulous crown, serves expert handography, transports us to another galaxy. With limited mobility, you might forgive her not being able to emote to her fullest, but Australia’s girl turns it out. The scene starts looking down on planet earth, with Kate and backing dancers floating weightless above them.
While Australia has shot up, one thing remains clear – Greece’s Katerine Duska is still the favourite to win the semi-final. The stage is set in shades of pink, focused around a large prop that resembles an egg, and with frequent flowery outbursts.
Portugal has dropped from fourth to sixth following a slightly lacklustre performance. Belgium has also dropped from sixth favourite to win, down to ninth.
Czech Republic has proven that being in the friend zone, is not only popular, but relatable. Lake Malawi elevated from tenth most likely to win, now to seventh.
Remaining more or less unchanged in their odds to win are Hungary and Estonia both have only dropped one spot.
Even though the positions have changed after first rehearsals, top ten to win semi-final 1 remain the same as a month ago.
Who was your favourite rehearsal in the first semi final of Eurovision this year? Let us know in the comments below.
Australia’s singer could have gotten a pair of wings and fly over the arena, it is still a bad song.
No, Roko will do that.
Here’s what I’ve taken away from 2019 so far: – The former giants are ready to come back. Those non-qualifications last year knocked some sense into those big former superstars. It hasn’t been that long a slump for some (Armenia, Romania, Russia), and for some it’s been coming for a while but last year lived up to their worst fears (Azerbaijan, Greece). They want to reclaim their thrones. As a returnee this year once said, “Thunder and lightening, it’s getting exciting.” (God, what a stupid line). – That being said, the idea of the underdogs crawling their way back is… Read more »
Spain will most likely come 20th
Literally every non-Eurovision fan I’ve played that song for has gotten massively hyped. He’s not had a bad live performance yet. I’ll watch what I say until rehearsals but Eurofans are spectacularly underrating Spain’s chances based on their recent track record.
I hope you’re right about Poland and Portugal, Tibor. But I’m so used with some favorites of mine being axed in the semi, that I’m worried about them.
Me too, Sabrina. I’m extremely worried about Belgium now. 🙁
Belgium’s situation seems very complicated. There are a lot of memorable entries and there’s a huge chance they will vanish in comparison. Eliot will have to be in his most likeable version. Even in the guy next door category he’ll have to face Albert.
Here’s what I’m thinking, based on what we’ve seen thus far: Cyprus – Looks great, as expected. Still pretty sure it’s not gonna give them the win that “Fuego” couldn’t but qualification is definitely a certainty. Montenegro – I hate ragging on small countries, but man…this brings to mind something Swedish commentator Edward af Sillen had to say about Genealogy back in 2015 (paraphrased): “This sounds like six singers taking solos at the same time.” They aren’t singing together; they’re singing, together. And that’s a big difference. Sorry, Montenegro, but I think it’s another year on the outs. Finland –… Read more »
I guess the more interesting question is, which will juries prefer and which will televoters prefer? If I had to wager:
Both – Australia, Greece, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Iceland
Juries – Slovenia, Belgium, Serbia, Estonia, Hungary
Televote – Poland, Portugal, San Marino, Finland
Neither – Montenegro
Can’t tell – Belarus, Georgia
I think Belarus will be in the top 10 according to the televoting.
I agree with most you’ve written here, with the exception that I have much more consideration for the Serbian entry. I guess the key to unveil the qualifiers lies between how Hungary, Portugal and Poland will do.
*clicks “Read more”* WHOA!
Reading your comments is a great pleasure, they’re always so in-depth and interesting.
Regarding juries and televote preferences, I’d say it’s gonna be:
Both: Australia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Serbia
Juries: Greece, Belgium, Estonia
Televote: Iceland, Slovenia, Poland, San Marino, Belarus, Georgia
Neither: Montenegro, Finland
Can’t tell: Portugal, Hungary
I’d be really perplexed if the televote didn’t also vote for Greece.
It’s not that I don’t think the televote is gonna vote for Greece, it’s that to me it screams “jury favourite”, while I’m not sure how the viewers will react to it – is it gonna be their winner, or like a 5-6th place.
Ah, gotcha. I should’ve made it clear that I was talking about songs the juries/televote would vote for non-inclusive of the other. I think Greece is definitely gonna score with both of them, but the jury will probably rank them higher.
Australia managed to turn it around in favor of them, well done! I assume they will do well with juries mostly.
Estonia and Portugal will probably fail to qualify and instead have Belarus and San Marino in. Like last year, there are usually 2 surprise qualifiers that betting odds fail to predict.
Poland should be borderline, Belgium is definitely out, unfortunately.
You can NOT win a semi-final. You either qualify for the finale or you don’t.
You can win a semi-final – if you finish first, you’re a winner, simple as that. Of course winning a semi-final doesn’t mean too much, or guarantee a good place in the final (see Norway 2018), but still, that’s what the definition says.
Thank you Australia! I really loved the song after listening it for the first time, but in their National Final the Staging wasn’t good ao it dropped a little bit! After i heared they would change the staging i hoped that they will make her fly because it would suite the song… AND THEY DID IT! In addition to that the changes in the acoustic version and in hhe rehearsals without the big opera part makes it more beautiful then impressive but thats fine and I would love both versions. Serbia is still my favorite of this semi! The snippets… Read more »
same, poland will have huge televote support i believe.
it’s what australia deserves. a magistral performance by an out-of-this world artist. my favorite since day one.
This is tough to predict. I’m worried about Belgium. Love the song but staging is a bit bland. Greece or Australia look like the winners of this semi
Why do you say that? (About Poland)
Thanks. That’s appreciated, because I just don’t “get it” with Poland’s entry this year. So thanks for expanding my understanding.
Okay people get real and stop the hate. Yes this is Eurovision Song Contest but staging is just as important as the song. So if you just want a song go and watch The Voice or Idol. Eurovision is different and staging is an essential aspect of the performance. The majority of watchers are not fanatics like most of us and to be honest they care just as much about the staging if not more than the song. So get over it. Australia had no doubt one of the best rehearsals of the day as Greece has as well. And… Read more »
Originally, my qualifiers were (in no particular order):
Cyprus
Slovenia
Czech Rep.
Hungary
Belgium
Australia
Iceland
Estonia
Greece
San Marino
For now, I believe I’ll stick to that…
Ok it will be my goal for this week: fighting against Belgium bashing!
Australia was the biggest grower in terms of odds. It’s now 11th overall (out of 42 countries) that’s an impressive jump I would say…
The other countries don’t seem to have changed much. Since yesterday, Cyprus drifted a little but still holding 7th place overall, while Iceland lost a tiny bit today but still 6th, and Greece 9th with little changes. Basically, no changes in the top 10 for now.
Maybe tomorrow we will see some changes.
I’ll jump at the opportunity and share my prediction as well:
LOCKS: Greece, Cyprus, Czech Republic
RATHER QUALFYING: Serbia, Australia, Iceland
BORDERLINE QUALIFIERS: Slovenia, Estonia, Poland, Hungary
BORDERLINE NON-QUALIFIERS: Georgia, Belgium, Portugal, San Marino
SEE YOU NEXT YEAR: Montenegro, Finland, Belarus
Change Estonia with Portugal and Slovenia with Serbia and we’re good.
I believe Australia, Cyprus, Greece and Iceland are in and Montenegro is out. Czechia and Slovenia are probable qualifiers, Finland and Georgia have a mountain (in flames or at least melting down) to climb. The others I can see going both ways.
I hope this is the last Eurovision with Australia. I want European countries – Andorea, Luxemburg, Bosnia, Bulgaria back.
Newsflash: Putting australia out isn’t magically going to bring Luxembourg back.
It’s not Australia’s fault, that all these countries don’t/can’t participate…
Those countries chose not to participate – they’d be welcome if they wanted to. Australia isn’t taking anyone’s spot.
Throw the first sentence away and I completely agree with you.
well, this won’t be, they will be around till 2023 at least…
They are in 5 years at least! If you want only european countrys you need to get rid of Israel, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia too. But that wouldnt be good! Let’s share Eurovision to the world so everyone can have a good Time! Haters like you destroy the sense of Eurovision. But i agree that i want the Europe countries back! But in addition to Australia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Israel and Georgia!
Oh sure, I always wanted Australia to be replaced by “Andorea”, whereever this country is?? *Irony off* Australia has nothing to do with ANDORRA’s participation…
Well yeah, Greece deserves this Semi-Final victory. And I would love to see Australia as a runner-up for sure. I want to see Greece rise in the winning final odds, because that’s unfair for Duska herself, her team and for the whole amazing work they have thrown in general the EBU Team and the Greek Delegation for the staging by far.
I still agree with these qualifiers, but not in that order. For me, Portugal is now borderline, so I hope they will fix it. Otherwise, Poland deserves a spot as well imo. Other remarks: 1. Cyprus looks good, but not good enough to win the semi at this stage (first rehearsal). So we’ll see 2. Greece I think will win this semi, followed by Iceland 3. Georgia OMG I liked the song a bit, but they surprised me today in a good way! 4. Belgium wasn’t THAT bad guys, chill out 5. Thanks for making it down this list, enjoy… Read more »
Good song will save Belgium and Eliot is likeable too
Belgium bashing…. once again
Belgium just doesn’t have any wow moment that’s not Belgium bashing that’s fair criticism
Maybe, but it’s every year the same thing so i’m getting sick and tired of it
Australia surprise 😉 bravo ! Féerique, magique… love it 😉
Sorry but i cannot understand the hype around Serbia, it’s just bad. The girl scream 3min in the stage and is really really boring. For me is NQ for sure.
Yeah, but she screams beautifully
Nop, just annoying
Well, getting married is usually something to scream about, to be fair. 😀
Serbia is a beautiful song with a quality profuction and she’s not screaming. Let me ask for your favorites this year
So Australia will qualify? I’m sorry this is one of the worse songs of this year and what does everybody have with the Czech Republic is beyond me. They’re not that good. Greece is by far thé best,no argue there. As for my country Belgium, it was not all that bad, so i really don’t understand thé negativity about it. But yeah bashing Belgium has become a tradition the last years, why is that it’s a question i keep asking myself
I’m bored too about Belgium bashing. That’s too much now! Eliot’s rehearsal was good. Others like Australia, Greece or Iceland were better sure but it doesn’t mean that Eliot did a bad job… for me the worst one today pas San Marino but nobody talks about it because: 1) it’s San Marino so we have to be nice. 2) it’s Serhat and people just want him to be the King of Queen V –‘ the song is bad, the voice is bad, nothing to save.
Estonia was disapointing too (I really like the song though)
It is not all about the song you know. Staging can have a big impact. Plus not everybody who watches are Eurovision fanatics
Well bashing the Netherlands and Sweden is a tradition too… Did you read all the (hate) comments about Duncan and John Lundvink here at Wiwibloggs?
@WIWIteam thank you for your great work and the videos about the rehearsals, but please stay safe and be aware cause there are reports that the opponents of israel are planning to boycott eurovision, in a terrible way. Lets hope music and unity will win
Don’t worry! Right at this very moment members of hatari are being dropped above the westbank by helicopter in order to give an extra queer performance of “hatrid mun sigra” and show hamas once and for all that violence is not the way 🙂
well i know that humor should be used even in the most difficult situations but sometimes things can become very ugly and i dont want to even imagine that this can happen this year.
I know right, it’s an awful thought,but the option of having to drop hatari above the west bank is becoming more and more inevitable with the second…
H a t a r i fans
lol,you have no idea what violence means and what happens there…sad
Omg, this needs to happen xD
Who I want to qualify
Greece
Cyprus
Iceland
Portugal
Belgium
Hungary
Czech Republic
Serbia
Australia
Slovenia
Hopefully this will be the real qualifiers as well and there’s a realistic chance it will be. (However I’m worried about Belarus, Estonia and San Marino qualifying because I really hate those three songs.)
Serbia.
Czech Republic is so overrated in odds, especially in every odds for semi final ( winner semi ,TOP 3 semi, TOP 10 semi)
Absolutely right. This is the biggest mystery of this year. It’s on my bottom 3 of the sf easily.
Lol finally someone noticed, really don’t see televote going for this, not sure about juries either. Ok, uptempo song in weird and dramatic semi, but so are Estonia, Cyprus, Belarus, San Marino.
How some countries are in TOP to win semi-final odds, but out in TOP 10 odds who will qualify for final.
I can’t wait for the SF2 rehearsals because it is a true blood pool!
Okay, here’s what I think (this is not my personal top 17):
Sure Qualifier:
1.Greece
2.Iceland
3.Australia
4.Cyprus
Probably Q:
5.Czechia
6.Slovenia
7.Hungary
Borderline:
8.Portugal
9.Estonia
10.Poland
11.Serbia
12.Belgium
Probably NQ:
13.San Marino
14.Georgia
15.Belarus
Definitly NQ:
16.Finland
17.Montenegro
What do you think?
I basically sign on this as my prediction too. Only four countries which I would consider a lock at this point are Iceland, Greece, Australia and Cyprus. I’d confidently add Czech Republic and Slovenia too. Everything else is in the various degrees of “maybe”, except Montenegro, which is chanceless.
My predicted qualifiers at this point – ICE, GRE, CYP, AUS, CZE, SLO, EST, HUN, SER… tenth one is probably between POR, POL and BEL. *Possible* stretch for GEO or SM.
Imo Estonia probably NQ, Portugal could be NQ, Serbia probably Q, Belgium borderline, Georgia could be surprise borderline.
I’m not too hot on Hungary’s Joci staging yet, as touching as his song is. Serbia should qualify, surely. Not much else to add. Seeing the graphics screen overlay will enhance some of these, so there will be surprises to come.
Yeah, I also think Serbia should qualify, but I don’t think there’ll be enough people passionate enough about Kruna to vote for it.
Estonia and Poland better than Serbia and Belgium, really???
No, I like both Serbia and Belgium better than Estonia and Poland, but I think they might be too unremarkable. As I said, they’re all borderline for me.
My crystal bowl says this:
God Osiris
BDSM guys
Cool Aussie on poll
Slovenian hipsters
Serbian Frozen
Greek pink godess
Hungarian with violin
Soldier from Belgium
Polish young and upgraded Buranovskiye Babushki
Serbian dark Elsa
Portuguese urban street shaman
Slovenian reclame for Iphone 11
Icelandic gay version of Lordi
Czech teenage Coldplay
Greek Jess Glynne
Estonian reincarnation of Avicii
Hungarian gipsy king
Cyprian-Greek-Georgian bad copy of Eleni
I think it´s pretty spot on, I would swap Belgium and Estonia places, but that is minor (Q/NQ difference though). As for now I am most nervous about Hungary, since I love the song, but not many seem to share my view… I still hope for the final for them.
Hmm no, I only have the ones in sure where I’m 100% certain they’ll qualify. I don’t see this with Poland or Portugal at all… Are you really 100% sure?
Kate is so great! Vocally perfect, genre mixing, message and space background… And I am from Germany and don’t care about the country. If Kate would sing for Timbuktu, I would say “Timbuktu for the win” <3
What I never liked about Eurovision is that many times some spectacular staging is more important than the crappy song. Australia’s staging was great but I would never listen to that song outside the semi final performance.
I think exactly the same think,Australia’s song is a song that i would never listen…actually there is no chorus
I listen to it 2 times a day. No joke! “Hey you! It’s me again. I’m going where there’s Ze-e-e-e-ro Gra-a-a-a-vity. Nothing holding me down!”
I agree so much with you. it’s called the Eurovision SONG contest, so i think the most important thing is to have a good song, not which staging that looks the best. Otherwise i think they have to change the name to Eurovision STAGE contest instead.
How many times does this need to be said the staging is the most important aspect after the song itself. No-one outside of the ESC bubble listens to the songs after June anyway what people see is what they vote for and if Australia had such a crappy song it wouldn’t have not only won its national final it also would not be top 15 in the odds. Best keep in mind that it was a qualifier in the odds BEFORE the staging was revealed.
Real finalist from first semi-final (in this order):
1.Greece
2.Cyprus
3.Iceland
4.Portugal
5.Slovenia
6.Serbia
7.Hungary
8.Australia
9.Czech Rep.
10.Belgium
——————-
11.Belarus
12.Poland
13.Estonia
14.San Marino
15.Finland
16.Georgia
17.Montenegro
Did you use a time machine? Cos that’s cheating!
I arrived just now, it was fantastic in first semi-final…
My likes for SF1 visuals so far: Australia, Greece, Iceland, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Georgia (yes, really) and San Marino. The rest all have some work to do, or they may be enhanced by the AR/Green Screen tech that we haven’t seen yet.
P.S. Serbia should get through on vocals alone. That is a unique approach to this semi, and I admire it.
My top for grand final (random order):
Australia
Greece
Serbia
Portugal
Slovenia
Cyprus
Hungary
Iceland
Belgium
Belarus
My question is… can Australians bet for Eurovision in their country? This might be the answer to their improvement in the odds. From my point of view, the performance is too much of an unsynchronized circus and the song is not my cup of tea.
The song stays the same and the staging is not much different than in the NF. Does this means that if Montenegro would have decided to sing on a wire they would have been suddenly top 10 material ?
Anyone can bet for their own country, there are no rules regulating that.
In some countries in Europe only sport bets are allowed, not for TV shows. Mine is. an example
One thing is 100% sure.The winner of all contest this year is not in this first half final.
Greece could actually
Portugal also
I still think that Zero Gravity is one of the worst song this year, and honestly, I‘m not into that staging as well.
Indeed,it is a really bad song
1. Was it my imagination or someone wrote/said that staging for Australia will be different than the one in the national final?
2. Didn’t William and Deban have Australia out of their Top 10 in semi-final 1 predictions?
Yeah, I don’t get it. It was going to be softer, less out there. Putting herself on a pole instead of a platform rising is not going softer in my opinion. 🙂 And what this suddenly has to do with the extra costs for which she is crowdfunding is totally beyond me.
Some source mentioned SBS took some of the funding out. It’s an emergency.
1. Iceland
2. Serbia
3. Greece
4. Cyprus
5. Belarus
6. Poland
7. Hungary
8.. Estonia
9. Czech Republic
10. Montenegro/San Marino
Yaaas Montenegro. And ooo a tie for 10th! 🙂
100% Q
Cyprus, Czech Rep, Australia, Greece, Iceland
Likely to Q
Portugal, Slovenia, Serbia
Dunno
Poland, Hungary, Belarus
Likely to NQ
Estonia, San Marino, Belgium
100% NQ
Georgia, Montenegro, Finland
Spot on!
What makes you sure that Czech Rep. is 100%, I’m really curious? They didn’t impress me tbh..
They stand out. I think the juries will love them.
I think that Slovenia is also a certain qualifier
Slovenia is a very ambience and mood oriented song , you can never have it as a certain qualifier as you can’t predict each individual voters mood
This seems fair except for Czech Republic being a sure qualifier , I’m not sure this is in the televote top 7 yet
Even if I like the Czech Republic this year, I don’t think that they’re definetely qualifying. I would say they belong to the category ‘likely to qualify’ as well.
start doing the math, then you’ll see that they are pretty much safe. Instead of picking the 10 qualifiers, try to find the 7 that won’t make it thru.
Who I want to qualify: Slovenia, Cyprus, Greece, Iceland, Serbia, Australia, Belarus. The rest I find meh
After rehearsals, I only think there are 5 sure qualifiers: Greece, Iceland, Australia, Cyprus and Czechia.
And there is one sure non-qualifier: Montenegro.
The other 11 will fight for the remaining 5 spots. It is really hard to predict.
I am really curious what you guys dislike here….
Cyprus- and Australia-hater? Gonna hate, we don’t care! Re-slay the Zero Gravity <3 <3
And yes .. Greece is the winner of semi final 1 . Sure qualifiers also are Cyprus , Estonia , Czech Republic , Australia , Slovenia and Iceland . Possible qualifiers Hungary , Portugal , Belgium , Poland , San Marino , Serbia and Belarus . Sure non-qualifiers are Georgia , Finland and Montenegro . Greece would be top 3 in jury vote in the final and as far as I am concerned according to the comments 4th-7th in the televote … And that’s enough to bring them in top 5 in the final ! P.S. I really liked Australia… Read more »
Australia is the best.
My winner of the day is Australia which went from a likely to a sure qualifier, my loser is Belgium which went from Borderline to NQ
My assessment of today’s performances:
1)Belgium: — (NQ)
2)Georgia: ++ (NQ)
3)Australia: +++ (Sure)
4)Iceland: – (?)
5)Estonia: = (?)
6)Portugal: – (?)
7)Greece: – (Sure)
8)San Marino: -(NQ)
+/=/- : Whether the countries did better or worse than my expectation
? = Borderline
Thanks Kris. A very interesting ranking system. May I ask how San Marino went lower than expectation?
Well I think the backing vocals didn’t hide Serhat’s vocals enough and the performance in the short clip didn’t seem as fun as I wanted for it to be ! This is not going to be in the Jury Top 10 and I’m not sure this is fun enough for non diaspora voters to vote
Ah cool, thanks. Very observant. 🙂
My top 3: Greece,Australia,Cyprus
Did not like Australia before, I think they just entered my top 5 overall.
Same here.
My top 10 changed:
1. Australia (Wow)
2. Cyprus
3. Greece
4. Iceland
5. Slovenia
6. Portugal
7.Estonia
8. Czech Republic
9. Belgium
10. Belarus
Australia, Greece, Cyprus and Iceland are locks, with Slovenia, Serbia, Hungary, Czech Rep, Belarus, Portugal, Poland and San Marino fighting for the last places. I think Finland, Belgium, Montenegro, Georgia and maybe Estonia are surely out.