David, our 57-year-old Eurovision virgin, continues to get his feet wet. Here, he makes his first official predictions about who will win Eurovision 2013.
If you say you know who’s going to win – you’re an idiot or a liar. Pick liar. Better to be considered duplicitous than stupid.
We’ve got four world class songs out of the 1st semi-final. We got one (Georgia) and arguably three (if you add Azerbaijan and Norway) coming out of the second. And Germany’s Cascada is already an international superstar who has brought her A-game. So we’ve got 5 – 8 very serious contenders for first place.
At the same time, none of them stands out as clearly better than the others. One may on Saturday night.
That’s what makes the winner impossible to predict. Zlata I’m guessing came in third on Tuesday due to a lackluster performance. But if she had been at her best Tuesday, she probably would have been first.
So the big question we’re facing is… Out of those top contenders, which one will deliver the performance of a lifetime? And with 5 – 8 who are beyond amazing, at least one will do so. (I was previously rooting for Zlata. But after watching Georgia the other night – I’m now hoping they win it.)
Then there’s another giant wild card – Bonnie Tyler. She gets the largest round of applause by far of anyone in this show. A lot of people remember her and love her (I have one of her songs on my iPhone). But her performance is going to be a train wreck.
So will she get a lot of votes in respect to her career? Or will people say “that’s a shame” but then vote for someone good. She’s not going to win but she could siphon a lot of votes from her demographic (old people – like me).
Finally there’s the voting system. Each person can cast 20 votes. So say more people give their top votes to Zlata, but they give almost as many to Dina as their second choice. And everyone voting someone else as their top choice, also gives their second votes to Dina. Then Dina, as everyone’s second choice – wins.
The problem with predicting this year is there is no Loreen or Alexander Rybak. And unlike 2011, the contest is between extraordinarily good acts (2011 was more who sucked least – a very different voting conundrum).
Makes for a much more exciting time when the votes come in Saturday evening. But it also means anyone claiming a serious prediction of the winner is full of it.
And now an update following the jury final on 17 May:
Ok, so anyone who thinks they truly know is kidding themselves. There is no clear frontrunner. But here’s how I think it will play out.
There are 5 acts that are in a class of their own. The relative position of these will be determined by how well each presents Saturday. I think it will go as follows:
- Georgia – as they are the best of all 5. And they’re the only duet while all the rest are female vocalists.
- Denmark – with Georgia pulling the Eastern vote, second place will go to a West Coast girl.
- Ukraine – Zlata at her best is amazing. If not for Georgia, she would get first.
- The Netherlands – Anouk comes next as another West Coast girl.
- Russia – And Dina then brings it back from the East.
And in 6th place will be… Moldova. Aliona has a beautiful song, presents it incredibly well, and the staging from her dress is easily the most powerful staging that adds to the song in the contest. I think few will vote her first but almost everyone will give her a point or two. And that adds up to a lot of points.
The rest of the top 14, in some order (listed here by running order) will be:
I was originally thinking the U.K. would end up 25th or 26th. But after some of the turkeys that won Thursday, Bonnie might break the top 20. But if she does – it will be barely.