Forget the bookies. If you want to know who will win Eurovision 2015, then check out the points awarded by Hungary, Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands and Finland. That’s right people. Following my post last year on countries that are best at predicting the winners, I’ve pulled out the calculator and have done it again. Let’s review which countries have awarded the winners the most points on average between 2000 and 2014….
This year’s voting showed a major cultural divide. Western Europe adored Conchita and nearly everyone gave her 8, 10 or 12 points. But the further East you go, the fewer votes Conchita received, with nil points from Poland, Belarus and Armenia…(Side note: Austria also received nil points from San Marino, who also snubbed 2013 winner Emmelie de Forest. Their national jury liked Azerbaijan the most as every year…)
Points awarded the Eurovision winner — by year and country
The following chart shows how many points participating countries awarded winners each year. For instance, Albania awarded five points to 2012 winner Loreen, and five points to 2014 winner Conchita Wurst. Albania did not compete in 2000, 2001, 2002 or 2003, so this is denoted with a dash.
| ‘00 | ‘01 | ‘02 | ‘03 | ‘04 | ‘05 | ‘06 | ‘07 | ‘08 | ‘09 | ‘10 | ‘11 | ‘12 | ‘13 | ‘14 | |
| ALB | – | – | – | – | 5 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 5 |
| AND | – | – | – | – | 10 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 10 | – | – | – | – | – |
| ARM | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 0 | 0 | – | 4 | 0 |
| AUS | 10 | – | 10 | 12 | 4 | 4 | – | 12 | – | – | – | 8 | 12 | 5 | W |
| AZE | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8 | 8 | 1 | W | 7 | 5 | 1 |
| BELA | – | – | – | – | 10 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| BELG | 10 | – | 8 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 12 |
| BOS | – | 4 | 5 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 8 | – | – |
| BUL | – | – | – | – | – | 12 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 2 | – |
| CRO | 0 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 10 | – |
| CYP | 4 | – | 4 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 7 | – |
| CZE | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 8 | 7 | 3 | – | – | – | – | – |
| DEN | W | 8 | 7 | – | 5 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 12 | W | 8 |
| EST | 8 | W | 12 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 |
| FIN | 10 | – | 6 | – | 8 | 3 | W | 12 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 7 | 12 |
| FRA | 7 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 10 |
| GEO | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 6 | 8 | – | 0 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 10 |
| GER | 12 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 12 | W | 0 | 12 | 10 | 7 |
| GRE | – | 12 | 10 | 7 | 7 | W | 12 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 12 |
| HUN | – | – | – | – | – | 12 | – | 12 | 10 | 12 | – | 7 | 12 | 10 | 10 |
| ICE | 12 | 10 | – | 3 | 12 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 12 | 10 |
| IRE | 12 | 10 | – | 0 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| ISR | 12 | 6 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 8 | 12 |
| ITA | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | 0 | 12 | 12 |
| LAT | 12 | 12 | W | 0 | 12 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 6 |
| LIT | – | 12 | 12 | – | 12 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 10 |
| MAC | 0 | – | 7 | – | 8 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 3 |
| MAL | 8 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 10 |
| MOL | – | – | – | – | – | 4 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| MONA | – | – | – | – | 6 | 0 | 0 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| MONT | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 12 | 8 | 10 | – | – | 7 | 10 | 2 |
| NET | 10 | 12 | – | 12 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 12 |
| NOR | 10 | 10 | – | 10 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 5 | W | 12 | 0 | 12 | 7 | 10 |
| POL | – | 12 | – | 2 | 12 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 7 | 8 | – | – | 0 |
| POR | – | 0 | – | 8 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 3 | – | 12 |
| ROM | 1 | – | 0 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 8 |
| RUS | 12 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 5 | W | 12 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 4 | 5 |
| SAN | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 0 | – | – | 10 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| SER | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | W | 10 | 10 | 8 | 0 | 10 | 12 | – |
| SLOVA | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 10 | 12 | 7 | 12 | – | – |
| SLOVE | – | 12 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 12 | 12 |
| SPA | 10 | 8 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 12 | 8 | 12 |
| SWE | 12 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 3 | W | 10 | 12 |
| SWI | 10 | – | 8 | – | 0 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 8 | 12 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 12 |
| TUR | 1 | 12 | 6 | W | 12 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 6 | – | – |
| UKR | – | – | – | 2 | W | 0 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 8 |
| UNI | 12 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| 12PTS | 8 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 18 | 8 | 13 |
| 0PTS | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
Ranking countries by their predictive power
The following chart shows which countries improved in predictive power when we factor in the results from 2014. You’ll notice that Hungary remains on top for the second year in a row. Between 2000 and 2014 they have awarded the winner an average of 10.63 points. Montenegro, which only gave Conchita 2 points, dropped 12 spots on our table.
| Average ‘00/’13: | Average ‘00/’14: | Contestant: | |
| 10,71 | 10,63 | Hungary | 0 |
| 10,25 | 10,25 | Slovakia | 0 |
| 9,31 | 9,14 | Germany | 1 |
| 8,77 | 9,00 | Sweden | 1 |
| 8,54 | 8,79 | Netherlands | 2 |
| 8,45 | 8,75 | Finland | 3 |
| 8,46 | 8,71 | Belgium | 1 |
| 8,31 | 8,57 | Slovenia | 5 |
| 8,56 | 8,56 | Austria | -3 |
| 8,42 | 8,54 | Lithuania | 0 |
| 8,14 | 8,40 | Israel | 4 |
| 8,25 | 8,38 | Norway | 2 |
| 8,33 | 8,33 | Serbia | -2 |
| 8,08 | 8,21 | Iceland | 2 |
| 9,40 | 8,17 | Montenegro | -12 |
| 7,79 | 8,07 | Spain | 4 |
| 8,31 | 8,00 | Estonia | -5 |
| 7,57 | 7,87 | United Kingdom | 3 |
| 7,92 | 7,79 | Latvia | 0 |
| 7,42 | 7,77 | Greece | 4 |
| 7,92 | 7,71 | Russia | -3 |
| 7,43 | 7,60 | Malta | 1 |
| 7,50 | 7,50 | Bosnia and H. | -1 |
| 7,21 | 7,40 | France | 1 |
| 6,92 | 7,29 | Ireland | 3 |
| 8,00 | 7,27 | Poland | -9 |
| 7,17 | 7,17 | Turkey | 1 |
| 7,00 | 7,00 | Cyprus | 1 |
| 6,91 | 7,00 | Denmark | 0 |
| 6,86 | 6,86 | Croatia | 0 |
| 6,33 | 6,77 | Switzerland | 3 |
| 6,17 | 6,71 | Georgia | 5 |
| 6,50 | 6,64 | Ukraine | 1 |
| 6,50 | 6,50 | Andorra | -1 |
| 6,67 | 6,38 | Macedonia | -4 |
| 6,23 | 6,36 | Romania | -1 |
| 6,22 | 6,30 | Moldova | -1 |
| 6,00 | 6,00 | Czech Republic | 1 |
| 4,00 | 6,00 | Italy | 6 |
| 5,00 | 5,58 | Portugal | 2 |
| 6,10 | 5,55 | Belarus | -3 |
| 5,50 | 5,45 | Albania | -1 |
| 5,80 | 5,00 | Azerbaijan | -3 |
| 4,89 | 4,89 | Bulgaria | -1 |
| 4,43 | 3,88 | Armenia | -1 |
| 3,25 | 2,60 | San Marino | 0 |
| 2,00 | 2,00 | Monaco | 0 |
The climbers are Italy (12 points for Conchita, climbing 6 places), Slovenia (12 points for Conchita, climbing 5 places) and Georgia (10 points for Conchita, which she received from the televote only, climbing 5 places). The countries falling the furthest down the table are Montenegro (12 places) and Poland (0 points for Conchita, falling down 9 places).
The 5 countries you can trust the most for voting for the winner next year are Hungary, Germany, Sweden, The Netherlands and Finland. They all gave an average of 8,75 points or higher to the winners from 2000 onwards. Also we have to give a little respect to the British Isles, because Ireland and the United Kingdom both gave 12 points to the winners for the last three years running.
And remember: when San Marino gives your country nul/nil/zero points, don’t worry! The EBU does not use the televote from San Marino, because they simply do not have enough viewers. Their jury has only give the winners an average of 2,6 points—and three out of five times they have awarded them NO POINTS AT ALL.
My last point is a prize for most awkward jury. While I was sifting through lists I noticed that the Azeri jury ranked Russia’s twins first and the Belarussian cheesecakes second, while ranking favorites like The Netherlands 19th, Sweden 23rd, Austria 24th and Armenia 25th. Good job! You can take your prize at the EBU headquarters and exchange it for your EBU membership…
Forna Jugoslavien avsätter dom högsta poängen till sina egna forna länder, så gör dom ALLTID. Samma sak. Bellan Cypern och Grekland. Dom här länderna har inget med respektive låt att göra.
It’s up to San Marino to give 12 points to Azerbaijan or not!
Isn’t it. trolls?
@ Deven O’Kearny
I did know that, as the same situation is in northern ireland. In the parliament in belfast, you have unionists and sinn fein MPs.
It’s all Elizbeth I, if she hadn’t collaniesed northern ireland with protestantsm we may just have one ireland and a Great Britan.
Lets just call it the Nothern European Archepelego, but that might up set UKIP, be reminding them we are part of Europe. Lol
hahaha drag the Azeris!!! Eastern juries are a big farce.
@ DR
Ireland is divided both religiously and politically. It’s black and white. Some people are extreme nationalists (Roman Catholics) and think violence and warfare is the way to go for a 32 county republic. Some however, there are extreme unionists (Protestants) who want Ireland to rejoin Britain.
This is clear evidence that Eastern Europe votes more regional than Western European countries. fact,
@ Deven O’Kearney.
You might not be comftable with the British Isles, but some of your own politicians have used the term, and not even as a negative term.
@Ranting Ruby
Thanks for your complement. I believe that you should do research, and know your stuff before you comment. Especially on Wiwibloggs, as so many let emotional tensions get in the way and create angry arguments.
Knowledge is power, and a sedative.
Thanks, Mike. Very interesting article. It highlights which countries vote for songs & which countries have predetermined voting patterns.
@Dhani, you say your country (???) Denmark doesn’t vote for the best song but for their stupid neighbours. Well, with quite much help from your (???) country Denmark, those stupid neighbours have won 8 times in total, Sweden 5 times, Norway 3. In addition your southern neighbourg Germany has won twice. That makes 10 times of winning in total. And actually Denmark awarded the winning entries with 8, 10 or 12 points. So, your stupid neighbours actually may have the best song.
I am Irish and to be honest with you, I don’t feel comfortable with people saying that we are a part of the British Isles because there has been a lot of tension and conflict in recent history between the UK and Ireland. Plus, in the Eurovision Song Contest, Ireland normally gives 12 points to Denmark. Not the UK.
IRELAND IS NOT THE UK IN ANY WAY, SHAPE OR FORM.
“You’ll notice that Hungary remains on top for the second year in a row. Between 2000 and 2014 they have awarded the winner an average of 10.63 points.”
It’s because we don’t vote for our neighbours and friends but the songs we like the most. 😉
uk better than ireland at predicting winner my hole.
Thank you, DR – good to see somebody who knows their history AND geography!
Great article, and interesting approach to the voting. About the name dispute. The name comes from the romans who called Scotland, Wales and England, Britain, and the Irish Island Hibernia. The names were lost after the romans left britain. After the Act of Union when the kingdom of england and wales joined with Scotland did Great Britain started as the whole name. As Britain joined with Ireland we became the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland, and after independence it was kept UK of GB and Northern Island. Even though the Irish don’t like it for justified reasons the… Read more »
I am hoping that the Sammarinese “and finally, Azerbaijan 12 points” will get booed from now on
It’s a dated colonial term .. Not used by the people of Ireland
@Dar: Yes it is. The British Isles comprises the islands of Britain and Ireland.
Also to the author of this article , Ireland is not in the British isles .. Please be respectful
Dhani you continue to talk complete rubbish
Quite interresting! 🙂
im not surprised my country denmark is not there cause we always vote for stupid neighbors instead of voting for the best song
lol that was so awkward