It briefly soared to the top of the odds in the aftermath of its national selection. But in the days since Barbara Pravi’s victory, the bookies have started to go cold on France. As the French drift, Lithuania regains its position as the bookmakers’ favourite to win Eurovision 2021.

Eurovision 2021 Odds: Lithuania favourite to win — 1 February

After slipping to third in the onslaught of Eurovision France, c’est vous qui décidez!, Lithuania is back on top. It won’t select its entry until Saturday. However, markets are jumping on The Roop bandwagon. “Discoteque” is breaking all sorts of domestic records in the Baltic nation, from becoming the biggest song ever on Spotify to the fastest video to hit one million views on YouTube. Oddschecker is now listing odds as low as 3.0 for Lithuania to win in May.

Other Eurovision 2021 betting favourites

France was very much the flavour of the moment over the weekend. Immediately after Barbara Prava’s resounding victory with “Voila”, the country surged to the upper end of the odds. And at one point it was even top of the pack. Now, however, it’s slipped to fourth on the overall Oddschecker charts. However, it’s second with some outlets with odds as low as 6.0.

 

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Iceland sits tight at second. Daði and Gagnamagnið won’t release their song for some weeks yet, but they’re still living off the success of “Think About Things” – one of the biggest commercial success from 2020. Bulgaria and Sweden take the third and fourth spots. The former has confirmed that Victoria’s song will feature on her new EP while Sweden’s Melodifestivalen will start on Saturday.

The top ten is completed by Russia, Italy, Norway, Romania and Finland.

Eurovision 2021 Betting Odds — 1 February

(Click to expand images)

via Oddschecker

Odds correct as of 16:00 CET 1 February.

Do you agree with the odds? Are the betting community getting a bit too excited a bit too soon? Let us know in the comments.

Follow all of our Eurovision 2021 odds here.

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Jame
Jame
3 months ago

Wow the odds changed so much

Tom Ripley
Tom Ripley
4 months ago

I dont see the point of Odds at the moment when we have 3 songs released.
My top 3 right now:
1. France
2. Albania
3. Israel

Odd
Odd
4 months ago

Why Oddchecker doesn’t have Nort Macedonians flag on there yet?

Solo
Solo
4 months ago

I don’t like The Roop, cold and mechanical, there are no human feelings, it’s people after The Great Reset, just the masks to be put on.

Purple Mask
Purple Mask
4 months ago
Reply to  Solo

‘The Roop’ might be compared with Ravel’s “Bolero,” but probably only in a strange musicology essay. 😀

Briekimchi
Briekimchi
4 months ago

Again, guys. France’s odds are in relation to the actual betting market activity that took place this weekend. France have a good song. Their best for a while. A lot of people will have placed bets on France to win Eurovision based on how strong the song performed in the national final this weekend BECAUSE the NF was this weekend. I can’t imagine many people bet on Iceland or Bulgaria this weekend.
France’s odds will obviously drift out once the run of bets subsides and other countries will move up when their NFs are happening, if their songs are strong.

Jofty
Jofty
4 months ago
Reply to  Briekimchi

True, I imagine there will be a lot of bets on Lithuania in the lead up to their final. And say on Romania just before the song is released (Una will be pleased).

BadWoolfGirl
BadWoolfGirl
4 months ago
Reply to  Jofty

Yes, it’s obvious Lithuania is rising because of its upcoming national final. This is going to be Highly anticipated this season. Will the roof when again, or will there be upset victory? Find out on Saturday.

Jofty
Jofty
4 months ago
Reply to  BadWoolfGirl

The Roop not winning seems impossible to contemplate for me though I have not heard any of the other songs. Let’s hope we do not get a Poland 2016, no disrespect, I liked Michal’s song.

CyxCy
CyxCy
4 months ago

The odds … When’s the last time they got it right? I still roll with laughter since Jamala’s victory in 2016, which they had not seen coming up close, far or across.

An American ESC Fan
An American ESC Fan
4 months ago
Reply to  CyxCy

They actually did get it right with Duncan!

Stephanie
4 months ago

Speaking of Duncan, I’m surprised that there’s nothing about “Arcade” passing “Soldi” as the most-streamed Eurovision song on Spotify, it’s now at over 174 million streams worldwide. He’s also started getting traction in the United States, rising to #49 on the Hot AC Radio chart

Briekimchi
Briekimchi
4 months ago
Reply to  CyxCy

There’s fluctuations due to market activity but generally, the odds have been pretty on-the-money (so to speak). 2019 and 2018, the winner was either a runaway favourite or stayed around that spot. In 2016 and 2017, once the winner had gained momentum and support, the odds were quick to react to it.

Jofty
Jofty
4 months ago
Reply to  Briekimchi

The odds tend to change dramatically once the rehearsals have started. I took 100/1 about Cyprus in 2018, if they had won I’d have got considerably more! I could not imagine Azerbaijan out if the first four in 2011 imagine my ahem surprise when they won. The best memory of bookies getting it wrong was Denmark 2000. It’s only a bit of fun.

Briekimchi
Briekimchi
4 months ago
Reply to  Jofty

Bookmakers, generally, don’t have the level of knowledge about Eurovision entry quality as your average fan on wiwibloggs. They react to reactions, particularly on social media.
Once rehearsals are on, the press reactions are immediate and at that point, it’s difficult for the bookies to get it substantially wrong. If you had been smart enough to get money on Cyprus BEFORE the rehearsals in 2018, when her song wasn’t that hyped at all, you got yourself a great value bet.

Jofty
Jofty
4 months ago
Reply to  Briekimchi

I take your point but the bookmakers have insiders who work on this type of thing. We punters could have an edge this year due to all the returnees and know who has written some of the songs so we know what to expect. In this regard I will be monitoring Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Greece and Romania closely. Discotheque sounds like a winning entry to me, but it has got to get there first. Speaking as one who thought Italy 2017 could not possibly lose (!).

Jofty
Jofty
4 months ago
Reply to  Jofty

And Ukraine!

Jonas
Jonas
4 months ago

Gambling is bad, and not recommended. Odds are stupid.

Purple Mask
Purple Mask
4 months ago
Reply to  Jonas

“Thank you for watching this public information broadcast from the Department of Health.” 🙂

Jonas
Jonas
4 months ago
Reply to  Purple Mask

If people are actually betting on this, with just three songs so far…well, then they have a problem and would benefit from listening to the department’s advice.

Briekimchi
Briekimchi
4 months ago
Reply to  Jonas

In 2018, I bet on Estonia to win Eurovision as soon as La Forza was released. It was at 50/1 (or something like that at the time).
I don’t have a problem, just had a conviction about the song. British-based bookmakers can be a bit slow to pick up on NF song quality unless there’s pre-buzz about it. Estonia went down to under 10/1 once Elina was selected. It was a great value bet to make.

Purple Mask
Purple Mask
4 months ago
Reply to  Briekimchi

Yeah that is a beautiful song. I still listen to that today. Sad that pop-opera could never please everyone.

Jonas
Jonas
4 months ago
Reply to  Briekimchi

Gambling ruins lives – by even supporting these conscience-less people, there is a problem. You lost your money. That is not great value. You were lucky to have lost, though – winning only encourages the gambler to try again, thinking they have a talent…only to lose, again and again.

Emmett
Emmett
4 months ago
Reply to  Jonas

If you can control your betting I can’t see a problem. It’s the only event that I’d bet on every year and I find it makes it a bit more exciting by the time the contest comes around.

Esc addict
Esc addict
4 months ago

In the case of Eurovision it’s better to be in the top 5 or 10 of the odds instead of to be the first cause all the focus is on you and you take all the hatred from the competitive eurofans afraid for their favorites or for their countries, you become the biggest threat for the others, ask to Mr Gabbani or Netta.
The odds will be interesting in May during and after the rehearsals not before.

yom
yom
4 months ago
Reply to  Esc addict

I mean if the artists ignore the eurofans it doesnt really matter. The contest is decided by casual fans and the juries, theres zero reason the roop need to lose sleep over some 14 yr olds hate comments on twitter.

Esc addict
Esc addict
4 months ago
Reply to  yom

OK but I’m not talking especially about the Roop and I don’t understand your 14 yrs old hate thing, I talk about those who are the 1st in the odds when all songs are released, to have this place before and until the show it’s a good sign (not each time) but it brings all the focus on one country on one act, it can be good for sure but on the other hand it can be hard for the artists, it can put pressure on them, they will be criticized more than the others, they will be loved as… Read more »

Halizhi
Halizhi
4 months ago

Bets are easly manipulated you guys. We all remember how Bulgaria was first until their song in 2018.

Stephanie
4 months ago

Akin to Poland 2016 when everyone was hyping over Margaret, and Michal ended up winning sending its odds plummeting. The only one in Lithuania with a chance of dethroning The Roop is Gebrasy, especially if he outright wins the jury vote and does fairly well in the televote.

Last edited 4 months ago by Stephanie
Jofty
Jofty
4 months ago
Reply to  Stephanie

And Malta 2016 on the understanding that Ira Losco would win locally with one of two songs neither of which ended up in Stockholm!

Kosey
Kosey
4 months ago

This is not surprising to me. France’s entry will certainly do well with juries, who knows it may end up top, but I just don’t see that it has mass appeal. It is a performance piece, akin to musical theatre and as such it just doesn’t seem on trend to me and I can’t see it getting a big televote response. Don’t get me wrong, top 10 is a possibility but I can’t see it winning the whole thing.

Last edited 4 months ago by Kosey
Erasmus
Erasmus
4 months ago
Reply to  Kosey

I actually think it has a mass appeal. I see a lot of people, older especially liking a good old french chanson – afterall Edith Piaf was Europe-wide known and not just in France

Esc addict
Esc addict
4 months ago
Reply to  Erasmus

Not especially the older, look at the youtube reactions they are all young people who connect with this song too.

Jimmy Smit
Jimmy Smit
4 months ago
Reply to  Esc addict

Were you happy with the final French result, Esc addict? Disappointing result for Terence. I adored Barbara’s performance, magnifique!!

Esc addict
Esc addict
4 months ago
Reply to  Jimmy Smit

Sorry Jimmy I hadn’t seen your question, but yeah of course I’m happy with the results, Barbara has the all package, song, voice, performance, staging, yeah disappointed for Terence LMK and Andriamad, I hope for a come back the next years as I’d love to see Lissandro, Nassi, Emmy Liyanna, Lautner, Tracy de ça, Aysat to come back. But of course my ultimate dream for France is INDILA and nobody can overpass her 😉 I wish for France the greatest result ever and big success for Barbara cause like that it can attract big artists like Indila, Kendji, Slimane to… Read more »

Last edited 4 months ago by Esc addict
Erasmus
Erasmus
4 months ago
Reply to  Esc addict

i’m not saying only older people. I meant that at esc older people are going to prefer this song over many others because of the nostalgia. but yes of course there are many young people who also love it including me.

waitaminuteholdon
waitaminuteholdon
4 months ago

I have a feeling a country that wasn’t a favorite last year is gonna win just to mess with us all.

Leo
Leo
4 months ago

I agree. The pressures of comparison and repeating products of spontaneity will be hard.

KRM
KRM
4 months ago

May the best song win of course, but I’d love to see a Georgian victory.

Tornike served last year, surprising most of the people positively and I really hope that his new entry will be just as good.

gilpgilpgilp
gilpgilpgilp
4 months ago

Iceland #2 without a song. Maybe if it doesn’t select a song it will move into #1!

Vytautas
Vytautas
4 months ago
Reply to  gilpgilpgilp

Iceland was in the first place until January 22 and then papa Roop overthrew them on January 23. Neither Iceland nor Lithuania did pick a song yet, while Lithuanian selection songs are already known. So yes, Iceland may rise once again. Or it may flop, just as any other contestant, including Lithuania, but it will depend on the mood in May and the songs which are released. I’m kinda happy Lithuania won’t be choosing its song so late in February or early March weekend as it won’t have to share the spotlight. I did notice many countries will release their… Read more »

BadWoolfGirl
BadWoolfGirl
4 months ago
Reply to  Vytautas

That’s what I’ve been observing too. I bet you there’s gonna be such a glut of songs out in the coming weeks, especially in March. It’s going very tough to find a runaway sensation if they’re all out at once.

Una
Una
4 months ago

Way too early with just one song and two ongoing selections (Lithuania and Norway) but I am very happy to see Romania in this top 9. Finally some positive recognition – whatever those odds mean. My Eurovision experience of today has improved significantly 🙂

carola
carola
4 months ago
Reply to  Una

We have three songs! France, Israel and Albania. Plus we have NF songs for Finland and Estonia, Melfest from Saturday, NF artists for Italy and Croatia and loads more

Last edited 4 months ago by carola
Una
Una
4 months ago
Reply to  carola

Oops – I was refering to one song (France) out of the nice countries I saw in the picture with the odds. And to the two ongoing selections.

I did not include in my comment the countries whose songs have been released but with no selection shows started per se.

BadWoolfGirl
BadWoolfGirl
4 months ago

Still too early for odds. Good luck to the roop to win again hopefully.

JustSayin
JustSayin
4 months ago

If I remember correctly, Poland 2016 was a big favourite to win in the betting odds when everyone thought Margaret would win the NF. Only for the odds to tumble after Micha? Szpak pipped her to win

Jamie
Jamie
4 months ago

I think this year will go back and forth in the odds. Will be very strong year. Good luck to people betting LOL.

Vytautas
Vytautas
4 months ago
Reply to  Jamie

Honestly, it was the same in 2020. Unlike previously (for example, in 2019 when Duncan maintained at some point a 52% chance of winning), there were like 5 or 6 countries with around a 7-10% chance of winning. Some people were saying it was due to a weak year, but I say it was the other way – it was supposed to be a very strong year with many contenders to win. It seems like 2021 might be just another rollercoaster year, yay!