It’s not controversial to say that bet makers want to make as much money off customers as possible. Naturally that means the Eurovision betting odds involve a bit of manipulation in order to boost agencies’ profits. That raises an obvious question: What would the list of Eurovision favourites look like if it were based solely on customers betting activity and how the crowd was moving?
Well Smarkets can give you some answers. Their run tables across a variety of betting markets from who will win Eurovision 2021 to who will qualify from each semi-final.
Smarkets prediction market: Malta the favourite to win Eurovision 2021
As of the end of March, Smarkets had Malta as the front-runner to win Eurovision 2021. Its data had Destiny on top with a 17% chance of winning, putting her just ahead of Switzerland’s Gjon’s Tears, who sat at 16%. As you can see in the chart below, Switzerland’s likelihood of winning peaked in mid-March — prior to Destiny’s song reveal — and fell steadily afterwards. But things appear to be tightening up once more.
What is Smarkets and how does it work?
“Smarkets is a betting exchange (also known as a prediction market), where odds move based on customers’ betting and trading activity, rather than being opaquely set by a bookmaker trying to maximise profits.”
“Unlike a traditional bookmaker, Smarkets users trade against each other and can bet for an outcome (known as backing or buying) or against it (known as laying or selling).”
“The exchange/prediction market structure of Smarkets means odds like ours are sometimes referred to as the ‘wisdom of the crowd’, giving you an aggregated view of the crowd’s opinion on a particular topic. Odds on Smarkets can be presented as percentages, indicating the implied likelihood of something happening based on the odds.”
“Our vision at Smarkets is to be used as an information source, so people and organisations can go to our website and find out the odds or probabilities of certain events happening.”
“Prediction markets are a rapidly growing industry, and more organisations are beginning to use them as a forecasting tool, as the collective wisdom of the crowd can be more predictive than any individual expert. In politics, for example, Smarkets outperformed major election forecasters in both of the most recent UK and US elections.”
Smarkets prediction: Who will qualify from the Eurovision 2021 Semi-Finals?
Smarkets also has markets for who will qualify from each of the Eurovision Semi-Finals. Based on their probabilities, the Semi-Final 1 qualifiers are: Malta, Cyprus, Lithuania, Sweden, Azerbaijan, Russia, Romania, Norway, Ukraine and Croatia. If the crowd is as wise as they suggest, that means Belgium, Israel, Ireland, Australia, North Macedonia and Slovenia are out.
Based on the Smarkets qualification numbers, the qualifiers from Semi-Final 2 are: Switzerland, Bulgaria, Iceland, Finland, Greece, Moldova, San Marino, Serbia, Austria and Albania. Their data suggests Poland, Portugal, Estonia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Latvia and Georgia are out.
Eurovision 2021 at Smarkets
Patrick is excited to share his insights with us as Eurovision draws closer.
“2021 is set to be our biggest year ever for Eurovision at Smarkets and as a big Eurovision fan I am delighted to be playing a key role in that. As Smarkets‘ dedicated Eurovision spokesperson, I look forward to working with Wiwibloggs to bring the latest Eurovision odds and insight to fans.”
“We already have an array of Eurovision markets on our site, but in the coming weeks we will be bringing markets not seen anywhere else, including markets on the televote and jury results, finishing positions and any others that our users would like to see. If any Wiwibloggs readers have any market requests or just general questions, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @patricksmarkets.”
What do you think of the Smarkets’ predictions? Do these align with what you think will happen? Let us know in the comments box down below!