It’s not controversial to say that bet makers want to make as much money off customers as possible. Naturally that means the Eurovision betting odds involve a bit of manipulation in order to boost agencies’ profits. That raises an obvious question: What would the list of Eurovision favourites look like if it were based solely on customers betting activity and how the crowd was moving?

Well Smarkets can give you some answers. Their run tables across a variety of betting markets from who will win Eurovision 2021 to who will qualify from each semi-final.

You can visit the Smarkets Eurovision 2021 betting page here.

Smarkets prediction market: Malta the favourite to win Eurovision 2021

As of the end of March, Smarkets had Malta as the front-runner to win Eurovision 2021. Its data had Destiny on top with a 17% chance of winning, putting her just ahead of Switzerland’s Gjon’s Tears, who sat at 16%. As you can see in the chart below, Switzerland’s likelihood of winning peaked in mid-March — prior to Destiny’s song reveal — and fell steadily afterwards. But things appear to be tightening up once more.

We wanted to learn a bit more about how Smarkets works, so we reached out to Patrick Flynn, an analyst with an interest in the song contest. Here’s what he had to say.

What is Smarkets and how does it work?

“Smarkets is a betting exchange (also known as a prediction market), where odds move based on customers’ betting and trading activity, rather than being opaquely set by a bookmaker trying to maximise profits.”

“Unlike a traditional bookmaker, Smarkets users trade against each other and can bet for an outcome (known as backing or buying) or against it (known as laying or selling).”

“The exchange/prediction market structure of Smarkets means odds like ours are sometimes referred to as the ‘wisdom of the crowd’, giving you an aggregated view of the crowd’s opinion on a particular topic. Odds on Smarkets can be presented as percentages, indicating the implied likelihood of something happening based on the odds.”

“Our vision at Smarkets is to be used as an information source, so people and organisations can go to our website and find out the odds or probabilities of certain events happening.”

“Prediction markets are a rapidly growing industry, and more organisations are beginning to use them as a forecasting tool, as the collective wisdom of the crowd can be more predictive than any individual expert. In politics, for example, Smarkets outperformed major election forecasters in both of the most recent UK and US elections.”

Smarkets prediction: Who will qualify from the Eurovision 2021 Semi-Finals?

Smarkets also has markets for who will qualify from each of the Eurovision Semi-Finals. Based on their probabilities, the Semi-Final 1 qualifiers are: Malta, Cyprus, Lithuania, Sweden, Azerbaijan, Russia, Romania, Norway, Ukraine and Croatia. If the crowd is as wise as they suggest, that means Belgium, Israel, Ireland, Australia, North Macedonia and Slovenia are out.

Based on the Smarkets qualification numbers, the qualifiers from Semi-Final 2 are: Switzerland, Bulgaria, Iceland, Finland, Greece, Moldova, San Marino, Serbia, Austria and Albania. Their data suggests Poland, Portugal, Estonia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Latvia and Georgia are out.

Eurovision 2021 at Smarkets

Patrick is excited to share his insights with us as Eurovision draws closer.

“2021 is set to be our biggest year ever for Eurovision at Smarkets and as a big Eurovision fan I am delighted to be playing a key role in that. As Smarkets‘ dedicated Eurovision spokesperson, I look forward to working with Wiwibloggs to bring the latest Eurovision odds and insight to fans.”

“We already have an array of Eurovision markets on our site, but in the coming weeks we will be bringing markets not seen anywhere else, including markets on the televote and jury results, finishing positions and any others that our users would like to see. If any Wiwibloggs readers have any market requests or just general questions, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @patricksmarkets.”

What do you think of the Smarkets’ predictions? Do these align with what you think will happen? Let us know in the comments box down below!

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notyourtoy
notyourtoy
5 months ago

I don’t know if you Wiwibloggers have heard about that, but after an interview in De Telegraaf, it is rumoured that Fokas Evangelinos is preparing a staging for Stefania that will be something we have never seen in the history of Eurovision and if that staging works fine, that type of staging might become a trend for future Eurovision Contests

notyourtoy
notyourtoy
5 months ago
Reply to  notyourtoy

That’s also the reason why Greece is going higher right now in the odds

Stephanie
Stephanie
5 months ago

Some comments here are really over the top! We all have our own ideas and thoughts on who might win in may. And thank God we don’t all have the same musical taste, it would be boring! And whether you like or dislike Destiny, remember there are 38 other songs in the competition.
And by the way, for the one who voted me down for just saying that we will see who takes the victory at home in may… Can you explain to me what I said wrong?

Aaron
Aaron
5 months ago

I mean why put ourselves through the notion of checking the betting odds and getting worked up. The odds when it comes to the betting have a terrible track record. In the last 4 contests, out of each top 10 final result, they got 3 spots correct Duncan Lawrence: 2019 Dami Im: 2016 Blanche: 2017 that means out of 40 countries they got a measley 3 correct predictions. Yet people continuously take what they say as gospel truth or fan the flames of their favorite being guaranteed a win. Betting odds usually only work if its something like a race/match… Read more »

hgfjd
hgfjd
5 months ago

Let her live her life man, if she wants to stick her tounge out on a picture, let her. It doesn’t harm you, let her pose in pictures the way she wants to

hgfjd
hgfjd
5 months ago
Reply to  hgfjd

There’s nothing wrong with expressing your opinion. The issue with your comment is the way you phrased it, saying “Destiny nobody wants to see your tongue darling. Now could you plz put it back in?” sound demeaning, belittling, and condescending towards her, which is exactly what her song is against.

Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  hgfjd

True. That’s the issue I have with Marios comment. The ‘Destiny nobody wants to see your tongue darling. Now could you plz put it back in’ part. She does what she want do and Marios has no right to say that no one want to see her with the tongue out and that she better put it back. She’s not doing something obscene or vulgar. She’s free to do it, period.

Nothing to be mad about, but Marios really is mad, cause he’s called me a freak/weirdo/idiot while I didn’t write anything insulting towards him.

Pernilla
Pernilla
5 months ago
Reply to  Ellen

Miley Cyrus had promo pics like this years ago and it’s old hat now…

Ende
Ende
5 months ago

Oh sh*t up immature, uncool, basic unnecessary whiner. What is wrong with you to find any smallest detail to criticise Destiny ? She does what she wants and if you do not like it then just watch somewhere else…

Ende
Ende
5 months ago
Reply to  Ende

Just sh*t your dirty stupid immature uncool average useless mouth. I am not a fan of Destiny and I have no positive or negative opinion about her. But for sure I would not tell her that she should not show her tongue…. What’s wrong with you to allow yourself to tell her she should not do that because you do not like to see it? Please use your brain just a few seconds and realise that when you speak about haters, criticising, vile and immature then you are just speaking about yourself. We are in 2021 and seeing this kind… Read more »

Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  Ende

‘Ladies. When you are young, you’re always told WHAT TO DO, who to be, what to BE LIKE, what to sound like, what to talk about …’

I guess the woman’s speech on the mv intro of ‘Je Me Casse’ has never been so relevant than here when you’re writing that Destiny shouldn’t stick her tongue out. You’re nobody to tell her what to do. We’re living in the 21st century, wake up !

Last edited 5 months ago by Ellen
Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  Ellen

Thx for the free insults when I’m not insulting you in any way. It just proves that you’re lacking constructive arguments and not able to debate.

Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  Ellen

My comment was down-to-earth, realistic and true. It’s a shame that people like you are allowed to comment here. No, not ‘comment’, I meant trashing and spreading hate in the comments And people wonder why the eurofan community is called toxic. You’re the perfect living justification to it.

Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  Ellen

If you have nothing but worthless and non-constructive things to write, then don’t write anything at all. Don’t you see how ridiculous you are by writing a comment addressed to a 18-yo girl stating that you don’t want to see her tongue out ? Cause a few people see it,and we’re calling you out about that.

Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  Ellen

If you’re not mature enough to bear our critics about your comments, then leave and don’t post anything. This is a place for grown adults here, not for frustrated kids.

Margaret Spiteri
Margaret Spiteri
4 months ago
Reply to  Ellen

let me continue with your statement “if you don’t get it…. Je me casse!”

Stephanie
Stephanie
5 months ago

We’ll see in May who takes the victory at home!

zoliszekely
zoliszekely
5 months ago

Malta’s song is the most overrated this year. Hope it won’t win.

Ffs
Ffs
5 months ago

…and the Brainwashing Begins

Stephanie
5 months ago

Bookies might have faith in Malta right now, but history over the past 6 contests says otherwise, especially when it comes to the televote.

2014 (final): 6th with jury, 24th with public
2015 (SF2): 5th with jury, 12th with public
2016 (final): 4th with jury, 21st with public
2017 (SF2): 8th with jury, last with public (nul points)
2018 (SF2): 5th with jury, last with public
2019 (final): 10th with jury, 22nd with public

I’m not sure that “Je Me Casse” will change this trajectory to be honest

Last edited 5 months ago by Stephanie
Micky
Micky
2 months ago
Reply to  Stephanie

2021 (final): 3rd with jury, 14th with public
No, it did not change.

raylee
raylee
5 months ago

i still have hope for others.. This is not just about Malta or Switzerland , both are not certain winners

Last edited 5 months ago by raylee
Eurovisionary
Eurovisionary
5 months ago

Malta ain’t going to win…it’s just the prediction just as netta won with that ironic style in 2018 and Cyprus got 2nd position with eroticism, we can see this year is full of erotics again Cyprus, serbia, azerbaijan, San Marino….boring as Malta is. Switzerland ok but its another Duncan alike. France and Italy avoided recycle both are going to do well, Bulgaria a bit boring but still ok ish. Victory between Switzerland, France and Italy, best of luck

Charli Cheer Up
Charli Cheer Up
5 months ago

One thing we can all agree on is that countries can place bets amongst THEMSELVES. The more famous you are locally the more people will be willing to bet on you as their winner. Same goes for the song entry, if your country loves it then good!

AndrESC
AndrESC
5 months ago

Looks to me a sort of open field, with both Juries and televotes quite different across demographics and countries. However I do think that bookmakers got it right and Malta, Switzerland, France have an edge over the others songs. Other interesting entries may be Bulgaria and Romania in the pop space, Lithuania with this catchy 90s disco song, or Italy with its rock band. And I would not rule out Russia and Iceland.

Mark
Mark
5 months ago

‘Je me Casse’ reminds meof UK 2015

Jake
Jake
5 months ago

I can’t see Malta winning, the jury vote is too competitive this year and Malta are cursed by televotes. If they perform in the first half of the final I think they are done.

Kristian
Kristian
5 months ago

I am hoping for a miracle for Slovenia.
So that I can sing ” Hallelujah! We’re glorious …….”

Rob
Rob
5 months ago

There may be other factors driving customers in supporting Destiny and Malta. One of them could be the fact that 2021 marks 50 years since Malta’s Eurovision debut and 30 years since its permanent return to the contest. There is also a wide consensus that Destiny is the only junior Eurovision winner who is equipped to win the big contest at this perfect timing. Looking closely into the semi final qualification chances, 6 countries from semi 2 have less than 50% chances according to bet makers’ general sentiment compared to only 4 countries on semi 1. Israel in 12th place… Read more »

andreas
andreas
5 months ago
Reply to  Rob

Malta’s screaming song is way overrated, and a copy of Netta.
Netta and her message won in 2018.

Bella
Bella
5 months ago

San Marino will do better…a lot better!

Whisker
Whisker
5 months ago

For sure!

Kristian
Kristian
5 months ago

I think we should do a counter called “No. Of days since an article hyping one particular country just based on odds appears on wiwibloggs ”

Count on 3/4/2021: 1

But maybe this was just compensation for doing 2 such articles yesterday

Last edited 5 months ago by Kristian
Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  Kristian

Did you do the same thing the previous years with Bulgaria, Iceland, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Israel, Cyprus etc ?

If not, it’s just hypocrisy at its finest.

Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  Ellen

Oh and if you actually did it, then stop, you’re being repetitive 😉

Kristian
Kristian
5 months ago
Reply to  Ellen

Actually , no
There were no repetitive articles focused on odds being published every day . They used to publish odds changes per week . 1 article / week unlike this year .

Last year there were no such articles.
Cyprus was never very high on till the day of first semi final in 2018. Thankyou

Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  Kristian

Actually, there are 4 articles in total that are dealing with Malta and the odds. The two first ones were published the 15th and 17th of March. The last ones were published the same day the 2nd of April.

So your ‘There were no repetitive articles focused on odds being published every day’ comment… You know… Just keep it for yourself.

Kristian
Kristian
5 months ago
Reply to  Ellen

No ellen. You keep your condescending tone to yourself and I’ll post my comments wherever I want to . Is that clear ?

Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  Kristian

My tone was more of a ‘giving advice’ tone rather than a ‘condescending’ one. Because you’re just complaining for nothing by writing that everyday we get an article of a specific country and its place on the current odds while it’s actually false. It’s just pointless to write that kind of comment.

Keep posting constructive comments then. Not the biased and pointless ones.

Kristian
Kristian
5 months ago
Reply to  Ellen

Whether there is a point in my comment or not will not be decided by you !! You don’t want my comment , you’re free to skip them . So how about you follow your advice, and keep your “pointless” advice to yourself. Thankyou Also , if you had happened to read my comment rather than being *please put your own descriptors here” you’d have seen the counter was at “1” , clearly acknowledging there were no articles yesterday. No where have I mentioned they’re doing it everyday , but my comment means that it’s too frequent , it shows… Read more »

Last edited 5 months ago by Kristian
Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  Kristian

Ok. I admit it. I think that I’ve kinda misinterpretated your initial comment. I may be wrong somewhere. But there’s someting that bothers me. Why did you start your counter especially with Malta while Wiwibloggs also posted the same kind of articles with Switzerland, France, Iceland and Lithuania when they also were first in the odds ? Why in an article which includes Malta in its title ? I have a feeling that you’re not happy with the fact that Malta is under the spotlights this year and that you’re reproaching it to Wiwibloggs. I know that it can be… Read more »

Last edited 5 months ago by Ellen
Savvas
Savvas
5 months ago

Malta is not going to win, and even if it does it will be an unworthy win. The sog is mediocre and even the ESC bubble knows it. All the hype is about Destiny. It’s a song with nothing special, a sound that isn’t really catchy oin order to sing it, and Destiny looks way older than she is. That’s not good. Switzerland has a better sound, but still I can’t see audience voting for it in masses. France has its charm, but remember that they had better songs and they still didn’t make it. Bulgaria is going to flop… Read more »

yom
yom
5 months ago
Reply to  Savvas

“the romanian televoting success”

Like 2019 when they scored a grand total of 1 point if we forget the friendly 12 from moldova?

Please, unless the staging is mindblowing Romania is not doing well with the tele.

Savvas
Savvas
5 months ago
Reply to  yom

There is always an exception. I didn’t mean that they are going to win the televote, but they won’t suffer for sure. Roxen has a nice sound and Romania has proved to do well in the televoting. At the moment we can only do hard predictions. The thing is that everyone tends to speak about 2 or 3 countries, while it’s certainly an open field.

Savvas
Savvas
5 months ago
Reply to  yom

What’s more, “Amnesia” is not “On a Sunday”…

Ca Ra
Ca Ra
5 months ago
Reply to  Savvas

What was wrong with on a sunday? It was dark & catchy. I can still hear the tune!

Savvas
Savvas
5 months ago
Reply to  Ca Ra

I liked it too, not so much to be honest, but I liked it. Though, it didn’t have such a dynamic. ?

Ca Ra
Ca Ra
5 months ago
Reply to  yom

Ure right. Ro does not do well with televotes since ppl not as rich as other countries. But if any in diaspora give 1 vote each. Then chances will go up. Amnesia is a good song. Roxen,s voice rocks. It deserves 2 do well.

Jofty
Jofty
5 months ago
Reply to  Savvas

Thank you for that insightful and objective analysis. Just what we need as opposed to “downvotes” when expressing an honest opinion about someone’s song. I agree the voting is going to be all over the place and that we may have a surprise winner say per 2011. I agree Greece underrated and provided we get a charming performance cannot see this finishing out of the first four. Nice day to you.

Savvas
Savvas
5 months ago
Reply to  Jofty

Thank you for your kind words. Have a nice day!

Esc addict
Esc addict
5 months ago
Reply to  Jofty

The France hater, stanning Greece, ok we get it, all is explained here. These frustrated Greece stans are becoming mad and their frustration is becoming hatred….. as each years, how original. But Jofty don’t be afraid we won’t forget, never, trust me.

Dave
Dave
5 months ago
Reply to  Savvas

so what you’re saying is nobody can win and your justifications are a bit silly. I agree that San Marino won’t do well with jury but cmon they’re going to be high with televote

Savvas
Savvas
5 months ago
Reply to  Dave

What I’m saying is that there won’t be a sure winner.

Florence Petit
Florence Petit
5 months ago
Reply to  Savvas

Amen

Giolo
Giolo
5 months ago
Reply to  Savvas

I honestly disagree with part of your analysis (agree with Malta btw), but I really appreciate the work you put into it

Loraxo
Loraxo
5 months ago

I like destiny and her song but i dont think Malta will be the winner because of one thing : historically and statistically Malta has Always poor televote results, we can all pretend that bloc voting is not a thing anymore, but that is not a true, Malta just doesnt have strong voting allies.

Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  Loraxo

‘historically and statistically Malta has Always poor televote results’

2002 Ira Losco (2nd) and 1998(3rd)/2005(2nd) Chiaras are calling to tell you that you’re wrong. Especially when they competed in an only-televote era of the ESC.

Savvas
Savvas
5 months ago
Reply to  Ellen

You are talking about 2002 and 2005. Ok. Greece had a top-10 placing in the televoting in 2001, 2004-2013 (2013 is more recent than 2005, don’t you think?) and still, hasn’t had any great success during the last years.

Ireland used to win big hands during the 90’s and the UK was a true “Eurovision” empire. Look at them now.
Your point is invalid.

Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  Savvas

Loraxo literally wrote ‘historically and statistically Malta has Always poor televote results’. He/she wrote ALWAYS. So I just proved him wrong by picking the examples of Chiara and Ira Losco that recieved a lot of points from televoters and placed high in 1998, 2002 and 2005. Malta doesn’t always had poor results with the televote. And I’m right. My point is valid.

On the contrary, what’s the point of your comment trying to invalidate mine ? And above all, why are you bringing Greece and Ireland to the table when we’re dealing with Malta ?

Last edited 5 months ago by Ellen
Savvas
Savvas
5 months ago
Reply to  Ellen

“Always” doesn’t signify that there can’t be exceptions. Three times out of 32 doesn’t mean that his/her comment is invalid. It means that you don’t understand how statistics work. The reason I used Greece, Ireland and the UK as a counter-example is obvious. You can’t judge based in results coming from 15 or 20 years ago.

Last edited 5 months ago by Savvas
Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  Savvas

Yep. But since Loraxo doesn’t specify any exception, then ‘always’ simply means what it means: always.

Loraxo
Loraxo
5 months ago
Reply to  Ellen

You are talking about Malta results from 20 year ago, which is irelevant because songs from that area were not that competitive in my opinion,
Lets look at the Malta televote results since 2015
2015 – 12/17 NQ
2016 – 21/26
2017- 18/18 NQ- 0 points
2018 – 18/18
2019 – 22/26

Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  Loraxo

My comment was relevant since you didn’t specify anything about the time. If you had written ‘from the past 5 years, Malta had poor results with the televote’ I would have agreed and I would even have not answered you. But since you wrote ‘Malta always has poor results with televote’, how could I know which time you were dealing with particularly ? I assumed you were writing that considering all of Malta history but you weren’t. And you didn’t precised that.

Kristian
Kristian
5 months ago
Reply to  Ellen

Although I hate to agree with Ellen , she is right . “Always” means each and every time as opposed to “nearly always or mostly” which allows for exceptions .

Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  Kristian

Why do you hate to agree with me ? I’m fierce and stubborn, but I’m also a nice woman lol

And thx to get my point ^^

Kristian
Kristian
5 months ago
Reply to  Ellen

Because condescension is not something I agree To. And despite your words being factually correct , the tone makes me dislike agreeing to it.

Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  Kristian

Thx to recognize that I’m factually correct. It means a lot to me.

Get the condescension thing, a lot of people here don’t like it. That’s the tone I use when people are writing comments that are wrong and are still defending them when i’m calling them out to say that they are wrong.

Last edited 5 months ago by Ellen
Briekimchi
Briekimchi
5 months ago
Reply to  Loraxo

Or Malta just hasn’t had particularly strong songs?

Loraxo
Loraxo
5 months ago
Reply to  Briekimchi

Well i think their 2019 entry was top 10 material but they flopped in the televote, which was my point about Malta in Eurovision

Margaret Spiteri
Margaret Spiteri
4 months ago
Reply to  Loraxo

you are right Loraxo. Malta is very unfortunate with televoting

Coco
Coco
5 months ago

No way Adrenalina better than Sugar. Adrenalina is annoying. Natalia will deliver.

Julia
Julia
5 months ago

Malta – great voice but awful song. To me it sounds a mash up of UK 2015/Austria 2018/Germany 2021.

The truth
The truth
5 months ago
Reply to  Julia

You definitely need a hearing test.

Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  Julia

Nice picks. Now do the same with the other entries. I start with Switzerland. It sounds to me like a mashup of Switzerland 2020/Netherlands 2019/Austria 2015 etc.

Another pointless comment.

Last edited 5 months ago by Ellen
Kristian
Kristian
5 months ago
Reply to  Julia

He he , now that you say it , the “horns ” is it of Malta and the whistles of Germany do sound similar.

Berco
Berco
5 months ago

I presume we all agree on that there is no clear winner this year at least we see the stagings and live performances. I really want a different country to win, which has been trying hard so far. That’s why Malta, San Marino or Bulgaria victory will make me happy.

Bella
Bella
5 months ago
Reply to  Berco

x1000!

Alex
Alex
5 months ago
Reply to  Berco

Iceland and Lithuania. 1st win as well. 100% local entries

Last edited 5 months ago by Alex
nycforever
nycforever
5 months ago

These predictions just copy other bookies’ odds, so I see nothing special here. I also do not think that Malta is going to win and I agree with the reasoning of the others who also think the same. As for me, I still believe that the winner can be France or Italy, or maybe Lithuania (I don’t understand why they are low in the odds). Pretty sure that winner will be neither the jury nor televote winner, like Ukraine or the Netherlands when they won.

Eugenie
Eugenie
5 months ago

I don’t know who will win, but I don’t want Malta to do that. In my opinion, their song isn’t catchy or original, it’s Netta’s copycat. I’d like Russia, Ukraine or France to win, cuz their songs are cool. Of course, it’s only my opinion.

Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  Eugenie

In which way is it a “Toy” copycat ?

Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  Ellen

No need to answer, cause I already know it: by the theme. But does the theme chosen for a song and already used by another one necessarily means that one of them is the copycat of the other ? Not. At. All. Or blame Italy to always send songs about love to Eurovision and call them copycats too. Be fair and constructive with your judgement girl.

Last edited 5 months ago by Ellen
Doris
Doris
5 months ago
Reply to  Ellen

Song theme + King size singer

Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  Doris

Wow Doris. Just wow. Destiny is not a bed or an object !

What about the song in itself except the theme now ? Give me a complete list of ALL the things that make ‘Je Me Casse’ a copycat of ‘Toy’ ? Cause if you’re just dealing with physical appearance, then we could say that Duncan Laurence is a copycat of Salavador Sobral because they’re both men, slim and white. Which is totally stupid… like your comments.

Last edited 5 months ago by Ellen
Riv5n
5 months ago
Reply to  Ellen

Destiny song can also get lost in the middle because of its theme, we already have 3 women empowering songs this year Latvia, Russia and Malta. It’s all going to come up on the running order but if they all get to the Grand Final people can get tired of hearing the same thing

Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  Riv5n

Same thing with Spain, Georgia and Portugal since their common theme is love. Same thing for Stefania and The Roop since their respective songs both deal with dancing etc. Get my point now ? Those comparisons aren’t relevant cause all the songs this year are all different musically, except for some with common themes. But that’s not a reason for them to be lost among others, they’re all standing out in their own way.

People need to stop to compare everything with anything… It’s getting old and annoying.

Hellooooo
Hellooooo
5 months ago
Reply to  Ellen

But Georgia and Portugal will very hardly reach the final, while Malta will reach the final for sure, and Russia probably too. Plus Stefania and The Roop deal with dancing but are between different among them

Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  Hellooooo

Oh, you’ve still found diffrences between ‘Discotheque’ and ‘Let’s Dance’ despite their common theme ? That’s right and that means you got my point. Now people have to apply the same thing to all the songs this year, especially to Latvia, Malta and Russia. Cause their songs aren’t the same except for their empowerment spirit.

The truth
The truth
5 months ago
Reply to  Eugenie

Maybe the only similarity between Netta’s song and Destiny is the message. Otherwise they are completely different.

Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  The truth

True.

Edit: I just noticed your username lol
The truth is speaking facts lmao

Last edited 5 months ago by Ellen
Hellooooo
Hellooooo
5 months ago
Reply to  Ellen

Xddd

Walter
Walter
5 months ago
Reply to  Eugenie

I don’t know what you are listening, to make such a comparison. I can’t believe such hate for such a small country.

Gurl
Gurl
5 months ago

Betting and predicting is fun, but is even funnier knowing that everything will change after rehearsals. This is not like 2018 and 2019, years with clear winners since the beginning. This year will be like 2014 maybe a dark horse taking the win. I still believe Lithuania and Iceland can surprise. We Eurofans are already familiar to their quirkiness and coolness, but they can surprise (and delight) the regular voters.

Grft
Grft
5 months ago

I can see Malta doing really good with the jury but not so good with the televote. Something like

JURY
1. Malta
2. Switzerland
3. France
4. Bulgaria
5. Sweden

TELEVOTE
1. San Marino
2. France
3. Switzerland
4. Italy
5. Malta

With France or Switzerland getting the win. I don’t know.

Julia
Julia
5 months ago
Reply to  Grft

Lithuania will be top 5 in the televote.

Amy
Amy
5 months ago

I think Italy can win televotes. France juries. Overall Malta is possible

American Boy
American Boy
5 months ago

French is strong. France wins Junior Eurovision. France and Switzerland are strong contenders at Eurovision. Malta has Je me casse in their song.

Stephanie
Stephanie
5 months ago
Reply to  American Boy

Don’t forget to mention that France cheated on Junior Eurovision

Kirby
Kirby
5 months ago

Okay, if Destiny wins… are there any prospective venues in Malta? I’m not a Je Me Casse fan, but if would be awesome to see another first-time winning country after Portugal; and ot would be great to see how Malta hosts Eurovision.

Whisker
Whisker
5 months ago
Reply to  Kirby

How about ESC is won by the broadcaster of a country that treats their journalists better than Malta?

Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  Whisker

This has nothing to do with Eurovision. We can do what you’re doing with the other favourites. How about ESC is won by the broadcaster of a country where immigrant people are treated better than in Swizerland and France ? How about ESC is won by the broadcaster of a country where black football players aren’t called “monkeys” like in Italy ? How about ESC is won by the broadcaster of a country where youngsters aren’t taking drugs like in Iceland ? See how your question is pointless and hypocritical. You can ashame all the participating countries for a reason.… Read more »

Last edited 5 months ago by Ellen
Whisker
Whisker
5 months ago
Reply to  Ellen

It definitely has to do with ESC, since it’s a broadcasters’ competition. Broadcasters, journalists, the point I referred to should be obvious. Also, thank you for raising awareness on those issues. It doesn’t invalidate my point.

Pandaman
Pandaman
5 months ago
Reply to  Whisker

The thing is, similar things can happen in every country participating in ESC but be swept under the rug. ESC at least gives the country/broadcaster an opportunity to be civil for once (because they have to) 😀

Whisker
Whisker
5 months ago
Reply to  Pandaman

It’s not about what “can” happen. It’s about what has actually happened in Malta.

Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  Whisker

Oh god. You really do think that ?

Plus, I didn’t know that all the journalists in this world were working for broadcasters. I excuse myself for not knowing that.

If we follow your reasoning, then for which ‘non-problematic’ broadcaster/country do we have to vote to have an Eurovision held ? Tell me about it. I don’t want the next one to be held in a ‘bad’ country.

Whisker
Whisker
5 months ago
Reply to  Ellen

Of course I believe that!

Turning the attention to other broadcasters is pretty pointless. I know what the world is like.

#threeletters

Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  Whisker

Oh lord you really do.

And focusing your attention on one broadcaster specifically while others like the Russian one, the Belarussian one, the Polish one, the Hungarian one or others that deserved to be called out too, is pretty pointless too. If you call out one, then call out the others.

#favouritism

N.B: I suggest you not to watch Eurovision anymore, cause whatever happens in may, the ESC will be hosted next year by a ‘bad’ broadcaster in a ‘bad’ country where a lot of horrible things are happening

Kas
Kas
5 months ago
Reply to  Whisker

This is not a competition among nations or about the best globalized area or the most lgtb friendly country or the most poltical correct one…although unfortunatelly it tends to be…

This is still a song contest…or show contest if you want.

…and you don’t want to ljsten my opinion about ‘joutnalists’….the plaque of the world.

Walter
Walter
5 months ago
Reply to  Kirby

Our best venue is our lovely island. With our island we can even host it outdoors.

Sebastian Flores
Sebastian Flores
5 months ago

I think the predictions for the semifinals are very smart. I have the same prediction based only on the songs. I’d just change Austria for Czech Republic in semifinal 2.

Henry
Henry
5 months ago

Austria will get a lot of points from the juries.. Czech republic probably not, and i expect that both will be ignored by the Televoters, so i think Austria will sneak trough (Thanks to juries) instead of Czech Republic.

Cheerios
Cheerios
5 months ago

I think the winner is gonna be determined on how well the staging and live performances are at this point. There is not one clear winner song, unlike 2019 and 2018, they all have chances imo.

Briekimchi
Briekimchi
5 months ago

Betting analytics is a really interesting subject and the rising popularity of exchange markets is something that has been ignored for far too long when it comes to pre-ESC predictions, also they’re something that have come along after I have finished working with such data myself. Unfortunately, I can’t buy them as being particularly more accurate indicators of the actual results due to the fact that those offering odds on exchange sites are completely influenced by traditional bookmaker odds when doing so anyway. Also, still such a small selection of ESC fans are actually active in betting markets so their… Read more »

Alex
Alex
5 months ago

I think they don’t get right the qualifiers but Malta is clearly leading at the moment for the victory. They got a great artist, a different sound (catchy and uptempo which is what the public needs now) and juries will support her more than they did with Netta. Besides, she does not have much competition this year. France and Switzerland might hurt each other as they have similar sounds in French. I think one of them will flop in televoting (most likely Switzerland because France has a very emotional staging but we haven’t see the Swiss one yet). Cyprus and… Read more »

Eurovision2016>
Eurovision2016>
5 months ago
Reply to  Alex

why are you generalizing the public by saying that everyone needs an uptempo song? not everyone loves fast food music. a good song doesn’t have to be uptempo.

Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago

And an uptempo song is not fast food music. It’s still music.

Kas
Kas
5 months ago

After one year lock down the last thing you’re going to do is to vote for crying ballads or faltseto outervoices from Bootes…and Pleiades

Esc addict
Esc addict
5 months ago
Reply to  Alex

You can’t know what the public need, some people will prefer uptempo danceable songs, others will prefer emotional songs, and others will prefer rock songs, meanwhile others will prefer quirky songs, so you can’t generalize.

Kas
Kas
5 months ago
Reply to  Esc addict

He just made an estimation take into considerstion all the different preferences you’ve mentioned. It’s not a generalization (sic). It is called normal distribution…

Kas
Kas
5 months ago
Reply to  Alex

Agree with you an I’ll vote for the nerd…the fat girl, the lovely small country with the holly name, the captain kirk in yellow, the girl in pegasus, the silly pretty sweet pink, the girl with the clock, the black from Czech…and from the slow ones the sweet Bulgarian.

No more cut my vains ….”quality”. Is esc !

Anhel
Anhel
5 months ago

I hope you’re right

Kirby
Kirby
5 months ago
Reply to  Anhel

So do I.

The truth
The truth
5 months ago
Reply to  Anhel

That is downright cruel.

justafan
justafan
5 months ago

I like how this article has from the 39 countries only Malta tagged under the title

Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  justafan

Did you see an article here tagged with 39 countries ?

justafan
justafan
5 months ago
Reply to  Ellen

Of course not, but there are other bookies’ favorites as well, even close ones to Malta (17% chance of winning), such as Switzerland and France with 16% and 13% chance of winning respectively.

Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  justafan

Of course not, and that’s my point. If they have chosen to tag Malta, it is obviously because the title of this article is ‘Smarkets prediction market has Malta as the Eurovision 2021 winner’. MALTA as the winner. Not ALL the favourites to win. Plus that would be easy to find this article with Malta tagged on it if you want to read it again rather than having 5 other coutries also tagged on. Don’t you think ?

I don’t see any favouritism. I just see an article author that wants to ease the search for this article.

Last edited 5 months ago by Ellen
Kristian
Kristian
5 months ago
Reply to  Ellen

Actually you’re wrong here , if this article were tagged with all 39 countries it would be easier to find as you could click on any country and this article would come up.

Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  Kristian

Easier for one to find it and easier for the author that surely has something else better to do than tagging 39 countries on this article rather than the only one that is the main subject of it: Malta.

Last edited 5 months ago by Ellen
justafan
justafan
5 months ago
Reply to  Ellen

Oh and because I noticed another comment of yours about Malta and Destiny, I have “Je me casse” all day on repeat and would love for a country that has never won the competition before to do so this year. I’m just talking about favoritism.

Kristian
Kristian
5 months ago
Reply to  justafan

Now you know why we need to ask for impartial journalism 😉

Eurovision2016>
Eurovision2016>
5 months ago

there’s no way malta is winning. not only is the song not “winner” quality but the staging is gonna be terrible because she can’t dance. when has a dance song ever done well at Eurovision without a fuego choreography? I’m not a betting man but using logic, the likely winners are Switzerland and Bulgaria with Azerbaijan and Cyprus as outsiders if they have a great stage show.

Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago

Why are you assuming things you don’t even know ? Where did you learn that Destiny can’t dance ? Are you saying this because she is a big girl ? And why does a dance song have to be performed with a ‘Fuego’ choreo to have success ? ‘Je Me Casse’ is not ‘Fuego’, both of those songs are unique. Why are you comparing then ?

Last edited 5 months ago by Ellen
Sasha
Sasha
5 months ago

I’m sorry to announce you that Netta who had a strong voice, same as Destiny, and a banger, didn’t have to dance in order to win.

Secondly judging by what people like, on the musical quality, the artist, etc..it seems very unlikely any of those countries you stated would win apart from Switzerland’s Gjon’s Tears.

Eurovision2016>
Eurovision2016>
5 months ago
Reply to  Sasha

netta was the most unworthy Eurovision winner ever lmao. she only won because of pc and because the me too movement was “trendy” at that time. also, toy didn’t have long vocal breaks, so she didn’t have to dance. je me casse has long beat drops where there aren’t any vocals, you need choreo for those type of songs. name me a few songs with long beat drops that have done well at Eurovision without dancing. on the top of my head i can only think of performances with choreos. greece 2012, cyprus 2018, greece 2005 and Switzerland 2019 for… Read more »

Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  Sasha

I agree with the fact that Netta didn’t have to dance on her dance song in order to win. But not on your comparison with her voice and Destiny’s. Destiny is a far better vocalist.

Eurovision2016>
Eurovision2016>
5 months ago
Reply to  Sasha

the countries i named are the only potential winners whether you like it or not mate.

Esc addict
Esc addict
5 months ago

Where are Italy and France, you don’t like them so they are not likely winners, sure guy, I get it.

Eurovision2016>
Eurovision2016>
5 months ago
Reply to  Esc addict

yeah, forgot about france. they could win. not italy though, top ten is the ceiling for that kind of song given juries but also given that it’s not the general casual viewers’ favourite type of music either you know.

Esc addict
Esc addict
5 months ago

The eurofans putting only their favourites as “likely winners” ignoring their non favourites even if they have more chances….we already know that, try something else
Destiny is a stunning performer so what is your problem, she works with professional staging makers, so your logic….. you know….

Eurovision2016>
Eurovision2016>
5 months ago
Reply to  Esc addict

my top three includes Greece and Spain btw. they’re not in my list of potential winners. so what are you on about? also, a percentage difference in betting odds doesn’t mean you have “more chances”. that’s very much inside the margin of error of who’s actually the favourite. only above a ten percent difference makes you an actual favourite. malta was also a bookies favourite for Eurovision 2019 before rehearsals but ended up almost not qualifying because she couldn’t dance. if michela couldn’t even dance, do you think destny will dance? genuinely.

Last edited 5 months ago by Eurovision2016>
Esc addict
Esc addict
5 months ago

Why she couldn’t dance or make movements, why her staging will be bad, WHY, seriously why, only because you have decided it and only because she’s not your beloved favourite, ok…… if Greece was the favourite you would say the same, of course not…..you’re biased.

Last edited 5 months ago by Esc addict
Eurovision2016>
Eurovision2016>
5 months ago
Reply to  Esc addict

stefania can dance and last dance is a much better song.

Esc addict
Esc addict
5 months ago

#subjectivity not #objectivity

Eurovision2016>
Eurovision2016>
5 months ago
Reply to  Esc addict

im very objective mate. that’s why I’m for example saying that Sweden will qualify even though it’s not a qualifier for me.

Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago

Since you’re picking your ‘likely winners’, then no, you’re being subjective cause you’re ignoring Malta, France, Italy, Iceland and Lithuania that are all high in the odds for the win. That’s not how objectivity works. And by saying ‘Destiny can’t dance’ earlier, except if you’re an omniscient person, you’re being very subjective.

Last edited 5 months ago by Ellen
Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago

Unless you have a physical disability that forces you to not move, everyone can dance. In a good or a bad way but everyone can dance.

Esc addict
Esc addict
5 months ago
Reply to  Ellen

The Roop say “It is okay to dance alone” so everybody can dance 😉

Last edited 5 months ago by Esc addict
The truth
The truth
5 months ago

This is supposed to be a competition about songs and singing not dancing. The Eurovision turned into a kitsch show when songs started to be judged on the show they on rather than on the song or the singer. Anyway there were thankfully quite a few songs which won without any dancing or whatever. The last winner, the Netherlands is a clear example.

ESCFanGA
ESCFanGA
5 months ago

To be honest I’m pretty underwhelmed by this year. There aren’t any songs in my opinion that scream Eurovision winner to me like Euphoria or Arcade. Malta is a good song but any other year I doubt it would have become the favorite to win Eurovision.

Esc addict
Esc addict
5 months ago
Reply to  ESCFanGA

Euphoria and Arcade were not the favourites or the winners of everybody, so you can’t be pleased each years, this year you won’t be meanwhile others will be totally.

ESCFanGA
ESCFanGA
5 months ago

I’ll probably get a lot of hate for saying this but I think Sweden would be a deserved Eurovision winner for this year.

Eurovision2016>
Eurovision2016>
5 months ago
Reply to  ESCFanGA

i don’t know if you know but Eric Saade didn’t win melodifestivalen.

Esc addict
Esc addict
5 months ago
Reply to  ESCFanGA

I though nobody screams winner for you this year…..

Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  Esc addict

This user is in total contradiction with itself lmao

Going from ‘Sweden would be a deserved winner’ to ‘There aren’t ANY songs in my opinion that scream Eurovision winner to me’. How to embarrass yourself with two comments…

Last edited 5 months ago by Ellen
Esc addict
Esc addict
5 months ago
Reply to  Ellen

Some eurofans are losing their minds totally and there are still 50 days to wait…..
Some of them are full of hate and frustrated because their favourites or simply their countries are not considered now as potential winners, so they hate blatantly some artists and countries only because of that, it’ sad for them, they are so losing their time for nothing……

Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  Esc addict

So true. And that’s unfair for the artists that are competing. They’re competing to show their art to the world, not to get hate from frustrated eurofans.

Last edited 5 months ago by Ellen
Esc addict
Esc addict
5 months ago
Reply to  Ellen

Sure as if it were the countries or the artists fault if they are considered as favourites of course it’s cool for them (not always with the bad spirit of some eurofans unfortunately), but they didn’t ask for it.
But of course these eurofans would act differently if they were satisfied by the odds at the moment, they are odds dependent, the odds reflect their humor, it’s serious at this point.

Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  Esc addict

Yep. Plus, being low in the odds doesn’t necessarily mean that an entry is not qualitative or bad. Some people here seem not to get that.

Esc addict
Esc addict
5 months ago
Reply to  Ellen

They don’t understand that you can be badly placed in the odds TO WIN and still do very well, it’s only the odds to WIN, not the odds to do well, so….. in their mind if you are not in the top 10 of the odds then you can’t reach the top 10 in the final….which is a pure nonsense. If only they understood how exactly it works they would be less angry and frustrated. If they are so angry it’s because they believe the bookmakers are right in the deep of their mind if not they wouldn’t care, but… Read more »

Last edited 5 months ago by Esc addict
Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  Esc addict

I’m glad to see that someone is having the same point of view as mine.

Esc addict
Esc addict
5 months ago
Reply to  Ellen

I’m glad that you’re glad, nice to meet you Ellen.

Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  Esc addict

🙂

Esc addict
Esc addict
5 months ago
Reply to  Esc addict

I didn’t want to say blatantly but blindly sorry

ESCFanGA
ESCFanGA
5 months ago
Reply to  Ellen

I stand by both comments and they’re not contradictory because despite my statement that none of this year’s songs scream Eurovision winner to me, one of them is going to win anyways regardless of how I feel.

Esc addict
Esc addict
5 months ago
Reply to  ESCFanGA

Nobody screams winner but Sweden would be a deserved winner, man nothing against you personally quite the contrary but you can’t say that this is not contradictory.

Last edited 5 months ago by Esc addict
Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  ESCFanGA

Ok, I get your reasoning even if it’s kinda contradictory.

Milla
Milla
5 months ago
Reply to  Ellen

There is a difference between the feeling of an obvious winner because of different factors and a deserved winner. Sweden’s message is probobly the most current and therefore deserves attention. Even if the lyrics could be better.. But when did lyrics become the most important thing?

Last edited 5 months ago by Milla
Doris
Doris
5 months ago

Even Portugal or Georgia would make a better winner.

Eurovision2016>
Eurovision2016>
5 months ago
Reply to  Doris

genuinely though hahahaha.

Anhel
Anhel
5 months ago
Reply to  Doris

I mean… you’re kinda right… Portugal has a more original message when you know the backstory.

American Boy
American Boy
5 months ago
Reply to  Doris

I’d sleep when I hear Georgia.

Liv
Liv
5 months ago

Can not wait for the rehearsals where all the odds get reshuffled and reordered because before then, nothing is certain.

Luke
Luke
5 months ago
Reply to  Liv

After the rehearsals begin, Malta will just get better in the odds IMO. Destiny has THE voice, and we know she kills every performance. Just watch some of her X Factor performances and her JESC performance. So I don’t see the first two spots of the betting odds to change tbh.

MYY
MYY
5 months ago
Reply to  Luke

This is NOT a voice contest

Riv5n
5 months ago
Reply to  Luke

You mean the 3 spots of the betting odds

Joe
Joe
5 months ago

Odds mean nothing. Never have, never will.

Alex
Alex
5 months ago

I’m a little surprised Malta is getting so much press. Could it be just because it was like the last song to be released and since it was a good song everyone is overhyping it since it is still “fresh”? I mean…it is a good song but worthy of winning and being the overall favorite? Idk about that

American Boy
American Boy
5 months ago
Reply to  Alex

It’s overrated. I’m in several Facebook eurovision groups and many keep putting Malta as their favorite.

Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  American Boy

What adjective do you use for the other entries that are put by people as their favourites ? ‘Overrated’ too ?

If there’s a song you don’t like but many others do, just understand them. There’s a reason for that and it’s called love. It’s not because you don’t understand that love that you have to qualify it as ‘overrated’. Cause I don’t think you would like people to tell you that you’re ‘overrating’ an entry simply because it is your favourite and you want people to know that.

Last edited 5 months ago by Ellen
Kristian
Kristian
5 months ago
Reply to  Ellen

But there aren’t many others liking Malta , lol !!
If there were more people liking Malta , comments saying Malta should win wouldn’t be downvoted .

Ita clearly deceitful press and hype.

Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  Kristian

Or is it maybe because they don’t pay attention to the comment section of Wiwibloggs since we can find a lot of delusional, hateful and non-constructive comments in it ?

As a reminder, Malta received more than 1700 votes lately in the “Who should win the Eurovision 2021 ?” poll. So your ‘But there aren’t many others liking Malta , lol !!
If there were more people liking Malta , comments saying Malta should win wouldn’t be downvoted’ comment. Again, just keep it for yourself.

Last edited 5 months ago by Ellen
Kristian
Kristian
5 months ago
Reply to  Ellen

Do you know robots can be taught to vote but not to comment ?
And again no ellen , you keep your condescension to yourself , I will place my comments wherever and whenever I want them to.
Also you’ve described yourself perfectly in the first sentence : hateful and delusional

Last edited 5 months ago by Kristian
Ellen
Ellen
5 months ago
Reply to  Kristian

I love me some stubborn guy.

I’m not delusional. I know that there are bots voting in the polls. I consult wiwi polls every year since 2016, child. You’re not teaching me something new. But you can’t say that there aren’t a lot of real people behind those votes. And they surely have more interesting things to do than arguing with people like you here. Which is not my case. I have a lot of time since I’m in a lockdown. And I love to defend my point of view here, but also point out when comments are wrong.

pooky1001
pooky1001
5 months ago

I would have been very happy with Malta winning with last years song but this year i just dont get all the hype around the song. Not a winning song for me but thats just my opinion.

Jonny
Jonny
5 months ago

Well, parts of the piano melody of Ana’s Amen are obviously a copy of Adele’s Hello. The public won’t care but juries will recognise.

Pandaman
Pandaman
5 months ago
Reply to  Jonny

They just use the same chord progression. Like thousands of other songs out there.

Tom
Tom
5 months ago

I agree. North Macedonia is absolutely the worst this year. Period.

notyourtoy
notyourtoy
5 months ago

Actually there are like 12-13 entries that can fight for the victory this year with plenty of dark horses. So we’ll be shocked in the live shows

notyourtoy
notyourtoy
5 months ago

By the time there is no clear winner (with 3 songs having over 10% chances) things are really open and likely they will change. Let’s just wait one more month when this will be clear