The battle of French-language songs continues to crowd the top of the Eurovision 2021 betting table. While Malta’s Destiny remains the one to beat with her song “Je me casse”, France’s Barbara Pravi is making moves with “Voilà”. She’s now moved past Switzerland’s Gjon’s Tears to become second most likely to win on the Smarkets betting exchange.
“In the last few days, France has been traded up to an all-time high of 16% in our Eurovision 2021 winner market, overtaking Switzerland to reach second place,” Patrick Flynn of Smarkets tells us.
“France now sits just behind Malta at the top of the market, with Switzerland rounding out a tightly-bunched top three. Smarkets users currently rate it a 50-50 chance that one of those three countries will take the crown in May.”
Eurovision 2021 odds: France second most likely to win on Smarkets prediction market
As you can see in the above chart, which plots the favourites’ chances of winning over time, France overtook Switzerland around April 6.
That’s around the time Barbara travelled to Spain to perform her song live on Telecinco. As with Gjon’s tears, who previously performed on the show, Barabara’s song “Voilà” is being used on the popular Spanish documentary series Rocío, contar la verdad para seguir viva.
Barbara performed the song standing alone on stage, with graphics showing scenes from the series along with Spanish translations of key lyrics. The Spanish exposure is having an impact — “Voilà” reached No.1 on Spain’s Viral 50 chart on Spotify.
What do you think about Barbara’s ascent on the table? Do you think these really are the three to beat? Let us know in the comments box down below!
Malta
We love you ??
Vive la MOME
Spain and Israel have a really good songs
so dated France, 10-15
‘Voila’ is a good song, but I really can’t see it finish better than 3rd. But I guess French Eurovision fans would already be more than happy about that.
It’s a bit tough for France because to see the hype about it you need to feel the song so i understand people who dont see it
It’s a pity that Smarkets is not available in Australia.
It’s important to acknowledge that most punters are based in western Europe countries and unfortunately they don’t always see the whole European picture. This is not west vs east picture. It’s more a handful of richer countries every year see France, UK, Germany, Spain (and often Switzerland, Italy, Greece) way higher than they end up being.
France this year will be a good example. It’s not a bad song, but I doubt it will do well at all. There are certainly better songs this year and quite many.
France, sending a horrible song, as they usually send (same applies to UK, Germany and Spain)…..
Don’t see the hype around France to be honest. It’s a good song yes but it’s just a typical French song in my opinion. I can understand Malta being first with bookies, it’s got everything for me; good message, vocals, dance vibes… love it! I’m also lovin Switzerland’s mood and Italy’s recklessness; in fact, any of these three would make a great winner for me 🙂
Having no support from Eastern European countries which vote for each other, it is unlikely that France will ever win Eurovision again.
I am sorry, but 2018 showed a different situation for France.
Mercy got 12 points from Ukrainian jury and 10 points from Latvian and Lithuanian. These were the highest points that they received that night.
Also, in the televote they got 7 points from Ukraine; 5 points from Albania, Armenia, Lithuania, 4 points from Georgia, 3 points from Poland. The only country that gave them more than Ukraine was Belgium with 8 points.
If the song is good and people like it, then they will vote for it regardless of their geographical position.
People like you spouting rubbish like this we know as fans to be untrue. In addition to Aura’s response about Mercy. Don’t forget Denmark won in 2013 with a massive vote from the East, particularly the former Yugoslavia, when other Scandi countries voted for Norway.
Go back to reading the Daily Mail or whatever rubbish UK paper spouts anti Europe nonsense.
It would be nice to show more respect for people, even when you don’t share their point of view.What is a bit scary is that some people approve you. You thnink you are so intelligent that you even know which newspapers I read and which country I am from. I hope it was just a bad day for you and that you do not always speak like that. Maybe you are simply a troll, who knows? For your information, I’m not very intested in the Daily Mail. I prefer “Le Monde” and “The Guardian”. Bonne journée, angry “Roo”!
The Netherlands won last year and they are far away from the Eastern voting bloc too.
As long as Albania isn’t 39th, I don’t care.
I believe we will have a surprise winner this year. Every song within the top20 has the opportunity to rise in the odds a lot by the time the rehearsals end. Personally I would keep an eye on Romania. I think that if they nail the stage show they will be a serious contender for the win. My two first places, Italy and Finland (can’t decide who is my winner this year for the first time ever)will also finish really high as long as they don’t cancel each other out. France is a potential winner and Malta as well (although… Read more »
That is your opinion Thanos
I will be so happy if she wins it all and, fortunately, her chances are not low!
Barbara has won, such a predictable year this one, but good to see real music winning, can see her getting a 700+ point result a la Salvador had in 2017
France the Perfect
Most likely to win on my prediction market.
Btw, don’t they usually start building up the eurovision stage around this date?
Malta is super overrated. It would be a shame if this song won. It doesn’t have a hit potential like Arcade did… I cannot imagine to listen to this song with pleasure in few years. It’s generic.
All behind France this year!
dont mind any of them win they all my fav lels
France together with Lithuania and Greece probably they gonna make the top 3 and one gonna sin…
Greece should be spelled M-A-L-T-A 🙂
I don’t think Malta will sink , it probably won’t rise much eithe though
My winner is Malta. Malta usually doesn’t do well with the televoting. So what? Nor does Portugal but that changed dramatically in 2017. But France would be a decent winner too imo. I don’t say that Switzerland and Bulgaria don’t have good songs but I don’t see them as prospective winners. And Italy even less. The ESC is not about: The winner will be who will be able to be louder and to produce more noise.
I think the televote results will be low. Like Patricia Kaas’ back in 2009
Patricia Kaas performed third :/
I’m not saying Voilà is a bad song, it’s far from that, but I really don’t understand the hype. To me, it’s a typical chanson française. If her voice put on tremolo, we’d have an Edith Piaf sound. I like the genre, I’ve got records by some of the French & Belgian greats like Piaf, Brassens, Brel, but it’s not a Eurovision winner to me. It’s a good song, just not a winner. I want something that speaks to me, that doesn’t.
Sorry if it doesn’t speak to you enough, it’s normal a song can’t be loved by everyone it doesn’t exist, even Euphoria the reference song among the ultrafans is and was not loved by everybody.
All the eurovision winning songs for example don’t speak forcefully to me but it’s ok if it’s a good song.
After the comment I posted just below this “I don’t understand the hype” is just perfect 😉
The typical eurofan: ok let’s go to check the odds, hmmm my favourites or my country are not on the top, hmmm I’m angry, the bookmakers are s…t , the odds means nothing and I don’t get the hype for those who are on top, they are not potential winners, everything will change during the rehearsals, bookies are so wrong, these songs are too bad to be on top, someone can explain me the hype. Also the same eurofan: wow my favs or my country are on top of the odds, I get the hype directly, and so my favourites… Read more »
I’m definitely guilty of saying I don’t understand the hype for France and Malta. But hey it’s eurovision! Complaining and judging is part of the fun
Yeah, I guess all eurofans are possibly guilty of not understanding the hype around songs which are not of their taste. Not really a great thing to do but we’re all humans and we err, sorry about that. Usually I praise my faves and maybe try to understand why a song I’m not a fan of is praised so much. I’m not a fan of certain songs in top 10 this year but hey, many people have different tastes of music. In the end only the most popular wins so “May the best song win!”
I don’t understand in all my years of watching Eurovision I guess the winner nearly every year . There is one stand out song this year that everyone I play it for has said it’s the winner and nobody here is talking about it or the bookies . That is CYPRUS EL DIABlO. I think I give up watching Eurovision if ur doesn’t win or end up in top 3 at least . That or Malta will win if it’s anyway right . France and Switzerland are stunning I see them up there but the song I see closing the… Read more »
*cringe* Cyprus sounds like a reject of Lady Gaga early discography, I can’t see it winning where Fuego failed.
Switzerland has it in the bag.
For me it’s either Malta, Switzerland or Italy for the win… Cyprus can fare well too, it’s in my top 5. Then again this is my personal opinion… just a drop in the ocean 🙂
Destiny is my winner but I would be happy too if Barbara won the whole thing. It would be easier for me to travel to France if the contest is hosted there. And as I have relatives living in France, it would be cheaper for me to find a place to stay when the contest will start lol
The two gurls who could make the esc History 😉
Manizha is also among my winners.
Yep. Actually, almost all of the top 10 odds entries are good and woud be great winners.
Not Malta. Such a toy vol 2. Zzzzzzzz
I agree it would be bad for Eurovision if Malta wins with this songs. This has no hit potential at all. No radio will play this.
Did ‘Amar Pelos Dois’ or ‘1944’ had a hit potential ? Did ‘1944’ were played on international radios ? Don’t answer. It’s clearly a no, yet, both of those songs won Eurovision. And finally, are you really basing your criterias of a potential winning song on the fact that they will be played on radios ? That’s nonsense
Make a complete and valid list of the bad things that could happen to Eurovision if Malta won it. I mean… ‘Running Scared’ won back in 2011 and ESC hadn’t suffered from its victory
Still no answers ? That’s right, cause nothing bad will happen to Eurovision if ‘Je Me Casse’ won it. Same way of thinking to all the current favourites to win. All of them would make great winners. Is it that hard for people to realize that or I am the only one ? When Conchita won back in 2014, I remember that people were saying that ESC would be over and unpopular cause it is a joke and not a contest anymore since a drag queen won it. But guess what ? ESC is still there no matter what, more… Read more »
I don’t know about your country but I find radio these days plays about 30 different songs over and over till one is sick of hearing them. And any ‘classic hits’ format has a similarly narrow playlist. Radio these days is about endless advertising and idiots talking than introducing us to new music.
Be more original with your critics. We all know that ‘Je Me Casse’ isn’t similar to ‘Toy’ except for the theme.
LOL what a luxery problem cheaper to travel there. I am 44 I try every year to get tickets for the final and I never suceeded. Hell I would even go to Minsk (and I do hate dictators) to experience a Eurovision final with a full crowd.
At this point it just doesn’t feel to me like any of these three songs will actually win. I’m looking forward to rehearsals and the rearrangement of the betting odds.
And if there are no big rearrangement?
Well we could still be surprised by the results. We can never know how the juries (Austria 2018, North Macedonia 2019) or the public (plenty examples) will actually vote in the final.
I would be happier if Switzerland wins, but France is great too and my n. 3. I would be super disappointed if Malta wins, it would kinda ruin it for me.
I have exactly your same opinions, even with France being my 3rd place
Switzerland is a huge step down from last year which is why I think it winning would be a disservice to last years song. Malta is good but it’s again gum ball machine pop where as last years entry was more unique to the show, although nothing original but again this year winning would just be bad on last years. Now, France on the other hand would have a fair win as its most definitely an improvement on last year and quite frankly a more atmospheric entry than Switzerland and Malta. I personally want it to win or Russia, or… Read more »
I seem to remember Amir and Madame Monsieur both being highly rated by fans too and then not performing as well as expected
We already know what Barbara is able to do with her voice and her staging, so no bad surprise this time.
Barbara became a favourite to win in France based on her live audition (and the quality of the song). Amir in particular isn’t a good example to use since as an internal selection he hadn’t performed the song a lot live.
We are talking about the odds here not about the fans rankings, and the two acts you are talking about needed a bigger and a better staging than they had, I can’t see this happening with Barbara at all because she doesn’t need a big staging, her and her voice are enough this time, and she has already proven that many times now.
Barbara is far superior over nobodies like Amir, Madame Monsieur
she is the all time best chanson artist
Don’t like France song 🙁 loo break for me.
…..pretend to be surprised…. we already knew that seeing your comments on this blog so nothing new gurl, then you should go to support your big hot and beloved favourite instead no ?
This song really bores me. Not saying it’s a bad song, but if I had to choose a slow one, I’d go with “Growing Up Is Getting Old”.
It’s an opinion, for me it’s the opposite, but it’s cool to have different tastes. The only thing is I will never go on a page talking about Victoria to say her song bores me because it’s not cool and it’s useless to do that imo, but we have 2 different ways to think I guess. Both are certainly valid….
This page is not about Barbara, it is about the whole contest and who the favourites are.
France is overrated. Top 5 but no win.
Let me guess, only Tusse for the win isn’t it?
Malta can win only if juries pushes so hard in points like they pushed Sweden 2012, Australia 2016. I don t see Malta in TOP 5 with televote.
Loreen didn’t need to be pushed lol
Although I usually don’t agree with PP77, I think he is got a point, he probably meant to say that she needs the same amount of points as Loreen or Sobral with the juries to overcome the low place from the public vote
France 1977 2021?
The Netherlands 1975 2019
France 2021 = Portugal 2017
Welcome to math class dear students
If France or Italy don’t win with these masterpieces, they most likely never win in the foreseeable future
Malta is overrated..
Totally!!!
Never read anything more real!
Italy is rubbish !!!
But they need promotion . Lol
When are the rehearsels?
Probably after May 10
Finland’s Blind Channel was in Russia’s & Ukraine’s Viral 50 a while ago, or it might still be.
Anyone seen other Eurovision acts on other countries Viral lists?
Italy is in a lot of European Spotify top 50… (not viral 50 but top 50 !!!!).
Very good, I bet there’s even more chart success to come as time goes by!
I’d rather have France as a winner than Malta …however , I still support ITALY 100 %
Agree with all of that!
Everyhing can change.Salvador Sobral was not the favourite and won.
Never trust odds or prediction they are not based on performance and reality. Think about your knowledge about eurovision and viewers test previous formats most important your taste Thats what matters I would say that Malta is not really special song ironic style like israel 2018 . Switzerland is style of Netherlands 2019 and many others are erotic like Cyprus 2018 and 2019 none are special. France is very good song and original with idea of it’s own, Italy is nice rock sing with it’s own idea too not trying to be like previous winners. Russia is interesting and Ukraine… Read more »
Yet I see France as Reminiscent of Portugal 2017 , a very recent winner too.
Just because they are both stripped back ballads? They are different in genres and themes though: a calm jazz lovesong VS a crescendo waltz-chanson about finding oneself. To me they don’t come from the same place and don’t sound the same at all.
Not in terms of sound , but in terms of the audience they’re trying to cater to
I agree that usually the winner is the song that doesn’t follow the trends. Also you are right, Ukraine is original, and there’s a reason for that, it is just noise,
You may not like the genre, but that’s definitely a masterpiece for many people, you either love it or hate it, so it’s a televote magnet
I would be so happy if Malta, France or Italy would win the ESC this year and San Marino finish in the TOP 10. That is everything what I ask and pray for. Greetings from Germany (and yes, this year it is okay if you put “I don’t feel hate” on # 26 because we here in Germany really don’t care about our song).
Your country’s entry is gonna do way better than you guys expect…
Exactly; few might place it first, but many may put it lower for being memorable, and these points do add up.
OK. Maybe Germany’s song is not a winning entry. But it is the guilty pleasure of many – me included. It is such a happy-go-lucky, carefree song and gets people in a good mood. Besides the singer is totally likeable. So good luck to Germany as well.
You can’t send a worse song than Sisters anyway
Why all the hate against Malta? This is a song competition not an arena to show hate against particular countries?
Destinity is great and haters will be surprised that the song makes a lot people happy in a difficult period. Go Malta !!!
“Every entry apart from Je me casse will be okay by me”
I love you.
Rest your mind Malta will never win because Eastern Europeans will do everything small Malta do not upstage them
Malta winning would be the most disappointing thing after a cancelled contest. So predictable, so outdated. It’s like kicking a dead cat.
Only according to you. For me personally whether Malta, France or Switzerland win is of no consequence are for me they are equally good for diverse readons
Say it LOUDER
Actually , I think the issue with Malta’s song personally for me is that it doesn’t play to the singers strength. The song was not created specifically for her and it shows.
It’s a good song , but not a great one . I’d rather have a ” great ” song win .
the problem is there are no great songs this year. not in the slightest
So true, very disappointing to see Malta even as the top favorite
I always enjoy it when there isn’t a clear winner. As I’ve said before, odds generally depict the televote winner, and the juries remain to be seen. And honestly, in April, there is usually one/two songs that often have gone further into the 20-30% in the odds, so this year makes it more special. Also, staging doesn’t usually pin odds favourites down as much as you might think. I mean, Portugal in 2017 had the simplest staging you could have, and Israel 2018 was… uuh yeah. All in all though, I think televotes will be even, and that’s funny. Maybe… Read more »
Destiny needs to book her spot in the Spanish show too before someone snatches her place at the top!
I love the fact that, this year, we don’t have a clear winner and I’m pretty sure that those who are currently high in the odds will drop once the rehearsals begin and vice versa those who are currently low in the odds will rise.
I hope that we will have an exciting voting, with no clear winner. I don’t want to see votings like in 2012.
The voting 2012 couldn’t have another outcome. Loreen was way above the rest. Just simple fact.
Exactly what they said. They want an exciting voting
If France manage to win this year, but not in 2016, 2017 and 2018, when they had incredibly strong songs ….then I will be left shaking my head.
Don’t get me wrong, France are good this year but it’s hardly reinventing the wheel like, it’s pretty safe and predictable entry from France this year.
Anyway, odds mean nothing at this point in time. Ask me again during rehearsals.
only deserved to win in 2016. the 2017 staging wasn’t good otherwise it’d have finished top five but not win.
Curious to know who is reinventing the wheel like this year….I can’t see. So maybe you would be left shaking your head….. but each years are different.
Which is predictable here are the comments of some people (always the same) under specific articles about specific countries, nothing else.
Maybe I’ll rephrase what I said as it seems to be misunderstood.
France is good, but it just doesn’t feel like a standout winner…that’s all.
And what’s the thing that makes feel like a standout winner?
A vibe. A feeling that I don’t get with France this year. Sorry like that you don’t agree with me but I’m not going to lie and call it a winner when I personally don’t feel that it is.
Great then we should all blame people for not making France win for the last 4 years cause apparently the songs weren’t strong enough…
Never said that either, I was just saying that I preferred 2016, 2017 and 2018 French entries more. Jeez
To me, the French package this year is the best they’ve ever hard in recent ESC history. 2016 was lacking in staging, 2017 in impact, 2018 in staging, 2019 in voice/song quality. I think their entry this year reunites everything.
Personally I think they’ve entered better BUT that’s the beauty of everyone enjoying different things. To each their own and all that.
Have you seen the rehearsals?
2016 was a year full of generic pop. France had a hard time to stand out enough in there.
And it was probably a stronger year as well. Every year is different anyway.
This time looks like an easier to field for France at the moment.
Staging will be key for them.
France does seem to enter strong songs, but the staging can then let them down somewhat.
I feel France should really take a “less is more” approach to staging this year.
Is it not actually their problem of not doing enough in general ?
How do you mean? Staging wise?
I do not recall any big staging efforts from France in the last years. Except maybe Bilal with 2 dancers but otherwise it is usually just the singer(s) with an average background animation.
Yeah your right, but I was thinking more along the lines of when they needed to add more to their staging, 2016 particularly was just Amir by himself and for a song of that style, they probably should have done a bit more, same with Alma too, her staging just looked like a Chanel advertisement.
So it went from not really having enough on stage in 2016, 2017, 2018 to then having too much in 2019.
I mean their staging for the National final was excellent, I think if they keep it in that mood they won’t disappoint.
Maybe.
I’m still not calling it a winner just yet though. But it could be a Portugal 2017 kind of vibe too, didn’t call that either.
As I always say, rehearsals will be the indicator anyway.
Alma’s staging was very bad indeed… A bad commercial for Emily in Paris…
But I understand your point. They need to find the good balance.
I am not sure that what they did in the national contest was that good. I mean I remember Patricia Kaas or another French woman already did this darkness/light staging and at the end it was not subtle and overdramatic. They should cut the drama and bring a bit of optimism at the end.
Exactly what I was trying to say in my initial point but as you can see I got the full wave of downvotes from some toxic Stan that doesn’t understand difference of opinion.
Everything just reminded me of Patricia Kaas in 2009, felt like I seen the whole package 1000 times before. That’s why I don’t see it winning.
So the toxic stans don’t understand difference of opinion, but if people see a song as a winning song you can’t understand it, ok double standard….
Not quite.
The toxic stans ok but what about the toxic no stans?
You forgot “dull”
Ssssh can’t say that we’ll get downvoted and attacked because we HAVE to only like it.
Come on guy don’t make the victim now it’s too easy, nobody asks or forces you to like it, it’s totally wrong. Nobody forces you to write this comment here too, so assume. Read again your first comment here and you will understand why you got downvotes. I begin to know you, and if somebody had talked about Lesley’s song like that you will be the first to respond and to defend her. So please no victimization thank you.
That’s not true. (I’m not just defending Lesley either btw) There is a difference between a valid dislike of the song and then going out of your way to purposely be dismissive of it….that’s when I would step in and defend a song. It’s like “oh I don’t like France this year because Barbara’s hair isn’t nice” those kind of comments, but just not connecting with the song is fine. If someone doesn’t like “Maps” fine…but if someone instantly writes it off for example as I saw when the news broke that she was going to be alone on stage,… Read more »
Malta, France and Switzerland have definetely not the right to be the favourites of this year, but it’s not like if it happens each years like some others countries whatever they send…..but yeah like they are not the favourites of some people so they have not this right, how the bookies dare to put them on their tops, it’s a scandal! it’s exactly what I feel here, and it’s what the artists must feel reading the comments here, it’s sad but what we can do…..btw I like Lesley’s song, it’s a quality song and I wish her the best. And… Read more »
I can see the qualities in France, I like Barbara and I like the song, absolutely. And if it did win, I won’t be crying and declaring war in France or whatever lol I am just saying that I didn’t see it as a winner but I also said that rehearsals could change things etc.
We like who we like my man, and let’s see what happens in May, we are Eurovision fans and that’s what counts.
Exactly we should be grateful to have an eurovision and we should stan ALL the artists taking part of it, for their passion, and to give us songs. Without artists no eurovision so a big thanks to ALL of them whatever the favourites and whatever the outcome.
For example I’m not into the Swiss and Italian song but I can see them as winners no problem and it would be cool for them. But my favourites artists and songs of this year won’t disappear for that, the beauty of eurovision is to discover new songs and artists to stan and we can follow them and their career if we want, so it’s not the end of the world. At the end only one song win out of 39, but the others 38 are not losers at all, and we as eurofans we have won new artists too… Read more »
I miss you I was waiting so much for you, I wondered where was my so beloved Jofty with his so good state of mind and his legendary respect, thank you! you never disappoint!
Yall guys saying France 2021 is very predictible because it’s very French, but when was the last time France sent a song like this ? Maybe 2015 but it’s hard to compare as it was really outdated. I don’t see when was the last time so it’s not “playing safe” like Sweden sending all the time the same type of song