With less than two weeks to go before Eurovision 2022, pundits are making their predictions of who will slay in Turin. While we wait for the big stage performances, jaw-dropping vocals, and spectacular dance routines, the odds continue to ebb and flow. One country that has been riding high ever since February — and who has seen their odds constantly narrow — is Kalush Orchestra. Ukraine is still the favourite to win Eurovision 2022. Meanwhile, three Big Five countries occupy the Top 5.
Eurovision 2022 odds: Ukraine remains favourite to win, Spain continues to shorten
Despite a rocky start to their Turin campaign and the devastating war happening at home, Kalush Orchestra have taken the bookmakers by storm. They climbed to the top of the ladder with odds of 14/5 and their prospects have only improved. They now sit at 4/5, demonstrating big expectations for the Ukrainians this May.
In second place is the home nation Italy. Their representatives Mahmood and Blanco have been a big hit in their own country, but time will tell if that translates across Europe. Their odds have been very consistent at 7/2.
In third place is Sweden. Their representative Cornelia Jakobs was the bookies’ favourite to win Melodifestivalen. Her odds have been steadily shortening to 13/2, so we will see if her good fortunes continue!
In fourth place is the United Kingdom. Despite a long string of poor results, Sam Ryder has been impressing fans and press alike. He sits at 11/1, demonstrating that the UK may be able to achieve their first Top 5 result in over a decade.
In fifth place is Spain. Since a surprise victory at Benidorm Fest, Chanel has been going from strength to strength. She’s won a massive fanbase after slaying pre-party gigs across Europe, and she’s been rewarded with big movements in the odds. After sitting at 28/1 two weeks ago, she’s shortened even further to 14/1. After six consecutive disappointing results, Spain are hungry for a Top 5 finish. Chanel looks like she’s ready to deliver.
The rest of the top ten are very stagnant, with Poland, Greece, Norway, Netherlands and Australia. At eleventh place is dark horse threat Serbia. The avant-pop performer Konstrakta has been creeping up in the odds with some bookies putting them at between 90/1 to 66/1. She is known for her dazzling performances, so we can expect big things for the Balkan nation.
Eurovision 2022 odds before rehearsals
While things look good for Ukraine, last year proved that being the pre-rehearsal favourite does not guarantee victory. Malta ended up finishing in 7th place, while eventual victors Italy sat at 4th place in the odds. As we know, anything can happen at Eurovision.
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Odds taken from oddschecker as of 28 April 2022
Do you agree with the Eurovision 2022 odds before rehearsals? Do you think Ukraine will win or an outsider will clinch the victory? Let us know below!
Ukraine is in war. And what? Kalush have to give up on a chance to perform their song, their hard work? If you don’t like the song, don’t vote. They are not begging for pity. You know what they did first at the end of February? They left everything and started to volunteer, to help people under the bombs. And music and Eurovision was on the second place for them. If you don’t like the song, don’t vote. That’s all. What to do if they win? Where will the country arrange the contest? First, they need to win. If they… Read more »
If Ukrain will win, because of the political voting now,there will be huge problem by organizing it next year.. The country is at war and how can you organize a festival like this??
Lmao I don’t get it, Italy doesn’t do anything for me, they are definitely not winning.
Austria has the most popular song in younger audience and clubs, also positive comments and views on their video have increased a lot in past 10 days. They have a hit and yet all these posts try to put them under the carpet and ignore the catchiness of their song. Austria should win
To me it seems very dated and generic. It has a bpm of 150, even faster than techno and trance. Seems a very specific audience would like this.
If Ukraine win i never watching again eurovision song contest…
Its selling and provide political jadgment.
Have you seen Eurovision before?!?!
I love music, every year im listening to the songs. End this year have better song’s from Ukraine.
Last year the song if Ukraine was good.
In this year i prefer Cyprus, Spain, France, israel and more to win in my top 10.
Sorry but Ukraine not good enough.
music is all a matter of taste. I didnot like last years song of Ukraine, in fact I thought the whole songcontes was mediocre to bad. This year much more interesting. No clue who wil win.
what is jadgment
I agree. It’s about the music
It has always been political 🙂
Everything is political?!
Whay all Europe dont jadg only musical?
Eurovision is a music competition not political competition.
If Ukraine win in this competition heaven they song not good enough (my a pinion) so the eurovision song contest is not song contest and all Europe jadg political.
In this year we have many good song with potential to win, its not Ukraine.
Its can be ustralia (strong song), can be France, can be spain, Cyprus… But not Ukraine.
This is my a pinion.
Your “a pinion” shows us that you probably have never seen a ESC before…
When i know myself im watching Eurovision song contest.
I love music in all my soul and body.
I know that always this competition its politics. Its not fair.
Im sorry but Ukraine song not good enough for me to win.
In this competition have many good song better.
All I want is watching Mahmood and Blanco’s incredible chemistry in stage again. We’ve all been hearing and watching over and over and over again the other contestants for months loosing the ‘first times’ magic. If more than 53 million views on YouTube and more than 75 million streams on Spotify doesn’t say something about the quality of a song I don’t know what can. Even webs or blogs specialized in ESC hardly talk about them (even this one), it seems to me that being one of the first entries known such a long time ago has made people forget… Read more »
“If more than 53 million views on YouTube and more than 75 million streams on Spotify doesn’t say something about the quality of a song I don’t know what can.” Are you a BTS fan? This here is a silly opinion, I’m sorry. Numbers ? Quality. Numbers are about success, not quality.
Absolutely. I agree
I just hope that politics won’t influence results as much as i think they will…
What are u talking about? If Ukraine gets a good result, its only because of what is going on right now? I dont think so…
I’m not talking just about Ukraine
I feel that Serbia will win this year
Oh you are sooooooooooo wrong.
FYI – Serbia’s entry recently released a photo supporting RuZZIa. So, she’s dead in the water.
Stop spreading false information
Not false when its confirmed in photos
It just a table stop sharing histeria eurosong is about music no place for politic
A vote for Serbia, its a vote for Russia
I saw it somewhere else too. So I guess it is actually true.
You should read an official statement made by RTS
Serbia’s song is masterpiece and deserves a top score.It’s false information about Russia support ,they also had blue and yellow colours in the back ground during the national contest.Did they support Ukraine than ? Political involvement and conspiracy theories will do no good to this world as we can see.
Zero chances. Way too niche of a song to win anything.
they will not win due to their political views no matter which song they have. I am from Ukraine. Their song is my favorite but I will not vote for Serbia
Ukraine , and their people involve so many politics in Eurovision song contest. Eurovision Is song contest are they.
It is not politics, but our life now. The future of the world is at stake. And who is on the wrong side of history will have to pay the price. It is what it is
That’s such a dumb thing to say
You are completely wrong about Serbia’ s political attitude.
And what does it hlave to do with an artist and her music?
and what about political views of ukraine? what about your last win? that wasnt a political song? it was! and just because europe supports your at the moment, it doesnt mean we all have to have one simpleminded opinion. the only political contestant in the eurovision song contest since the beggining was ukraine. konstrakta has nothing to do with politics, she is an real pure artist.
Can’t even say why, but I feel like Australia could be a shock NQ.
That wouldn’t shock me at all….
I think the mood in Europe on Saturday will be a huge factor.
Ukraine will be top 1 in televote and capture a whole mood across the continent.
Spain is the starkest contrast in mood to Ukraine and that may play in its favour.
Italy and Sweden compete for a similar mood imo. If that happens and they divide certain vote, they may end up racking up a few 6 and 7 each instead of 12s in a few countries. They are my top 1 and top 3 respectively but I do think they compete with each other quite directly.
For me top 5 will be Italy Sweden Albania Spain UK
Got a feeling whatever happens at the rehearsals ukraine will be at number one of the bookies. And we all know why it’s there and not on let’s say place five
Exactly, even though 5th is probably where they should be. Which of course, is not a bad place by any means, but it’s not the winning place.
A lot of people here are in denial. Ukraine is the winner this year. It’s done. Nobody has been this far ahead in the odds without winning. The odds are never that off. And yes the odds also take into consideration the jury vote.
The winner of this contest has been determined; the only thing left is to see where the rest of the top 10 rounds out. Yes, it is boring to already know the winner, but that’s where we are.
I think you are right. I understand its terrible what’s happening in Ukraine but its really unfair to all the other artists this year who have put so much effort into their songs and performances.
Its not fair.
So, for what we need esc this year.
Lets cancelled ant let to Ukraine to win without competition. A lot of money spend all every yaer.
Im with you my friend.
I think, all Europe need to leave political and jadg only music.
Ukraine being ahead in odds is exceptional because Ukraine is in a unique and terrible situation. Unless you can name other years that we can compare to?
They should get a very good result since their entry is great, and we will all be there to show support (I do want to see support to them in Eurovision based on their reality outside of ESC). That does not leave them alone in the running that night, there are a few real contenders.
Ofcourse…the dumb bookies are ready to pay all these gamblers that put their money on Ukraine….for sure profits. Lol….
Unfortunately, I must agree with you. The participating countries will compete for the 2nd place since the 1st place seems to be reserved already.
@Benji – yes this is obvious. The winner is chosen. It’s done. It’s weird that people here can’t accept it.
People can’t accept it for a simple reason: Stefania is definitelly not a top 5 mateiral, and it is a fact, not my like or a dislike of that song. If there is justice, Ukraine is NOT going to win this year.
Are people downvoting him because of denial? This is what’s going to happen.
As a Spaniard I can only say that, as much as I adore Chanel — in Spain we are literally hoping for a TOP 10 position, no more no less… not even a TOP3 because we are realistic and we know this is NOT a winning song but a great performance (?) —, I think the constant hype she is getting from an outlet like wiwi because she is the “diva type” … will only play against her. It saddens me because this year we are extremely happy and hopeful about our representative and song but, if we as fans… Read more »
FINALLY, an objective opinion! Yes, you will 100% exit the bottom 5, if not, enter the top 10! But all of this overhyping for an artist with that exact “diva” aspect, a flawless excellent performer, with however a dance-entry, not so different than many we’ve seen in this contest, will only hurt her chances even more. It’s so much better when happiness and joy overcomes greed. 🙂 So you better all enjoy the fact that you’re among the strongest contenders this year!
Hola María….. Yo también soy Español como tú y sigo Eurovisión desde hace más de 20 años… ¿Tú dices que los Españoles somos realista con que Chanel en Eurovisión no se marque un top 3 o 5? e incluso ¿porque no soñar en ganar Eurovisión? Es cierto que la canción no es la mejor ni mucho menos pero si podría ser el mejor espectáculo en 3 minutos, la canción tiene algo que engancha y gusta, un sonido brutal latino que te invita a bailar y SI, ¡CHANEL ES LA DIVA DE ESTA EDICIÓN!… Canta, baila, actúa es brillante! todo ello… Read more »
Hola 🙂 Claro que sueño con que Chanel gane, muchísimos lo hacemos, pero tenemos que ser realistas, a lo que me refiero con mi comentario es al hecho de que … el hype a veces juega en contra de nuestra candidatura. Nosotros con un TOP10 estaremos felices, con un TOP5 encantados, y muchísimo más si gana pero, si en todo momento páginas centradas en Eurovisión estan 24/7 hypeando una candidatura o hablando de apuestas, el momento en el que ésta por H o por B no cumpla expectativas (que esperemos no pase éste año, ya que hay mucho curro detrás)… Read more »
Perfectamente entendida! Sin ver los ensayos mi top 5 sería.
Ucrania entra dentro del top 1O fijo pero no la veo ganando creo que ganará en televoto pero en jurado no lo veo tan alto.
También veo en el Top 10 a Serbia…
España lleva este año algo completamente diferente a los demás y espero que llegue a lo más alto por el gran curro que hay detrás de todas formas pase lo que pase orgulloso de Chanel
Tenéis razón, me da un poquito de miedo el “Efecto Rosa”, es decir, que quedemos 7ºs y a la gente le sepa a poco. Creo que un 7º puesto es bastante factible para SloMo y, de hecho, sería algo de lo que estar orgullosos. Lo importante es que, gracias al Benidorm Fest, a los artistas españoles se les ha quitado el miedo de participar en Eurovisión con sus mejores propuestas. Ese es el camino para volver a ganar el festival próximamente.
Your total objectivity and honesty is refreshing
And the Spanish hype continues……
Realistically I can’t see Ukraine winning despite what the odds say. The song is musically not strong enough to win Eurovision. I think it will definitely get a lot of televotes (particularly from other Eastern European countries) and come top 3 in the overall televote but I can’t see the juries going for this. Juries are meant to evaluate the strength of a song and its performance. If the juries were to rank this heavily, it would undermine their credibility because jurors are not meant to be influenced by factors unrelated to musical and performance quality. I imagine the televote/jury… Read more »
I agree with everything
I agree with Ukraine but I find Sweden’s song not great ro win Eurovision. The song is a little bit average :/
I also wonder how many people (particularly juries) might not want to vote for Ukraine even if they DO like it, just because they don’t want to be seen as giving a sympathy vote.
I think you’ve got a real point there.
As for the televote, I’m 100 % certain it’s going to be a runaway victory for Ukraine across all of Europe. And since ‘Stefania’ is a good and pretty unique song, the juries normally shouldn’t rank it bad either.
But yeah, if they want to over-emphasize their ojectivity/neutrality, that might actually become a problem for Kalush’s chance of victory.
My Take on the current situation with the odds/bookies: Ukraine is over-inflated given the crisis, however juries will not give this a big enough response to win. JURY PREDICTION: 9th-12th Place. TELEVOTE PREDICTION: Top 3. The reason why I said Top 3 with the voting public is firstly, the typical Eurovision viewer only realistically watches the Saturday night Grand Final and would hear all the songs most likely for the first time on the night in question. Secondly, just because Ukraine has the obvious factors at play boosting its odds to boot does not mean that people from all over… Read more »
Mahmood did not say anything bad about Ukraine. All he said was that he’d be happy to lose to them if it meant helping them. That made me like him even more, not less.
I agree; they wished good luck for Spain as well, stating that Spain is also one of ho? favorite countries for this year
Ireland screams too…
Mahmood said nothing bad about Ukraine, he’s even performed on the stage holding the Ukrainian flag. Stop spreading disinformation just because you’re so desperate for a UK win.
Everyone in Europe outside the bubble will vote for Ukraine. They will win the televote by over 200 points and get top 5 with the juries. The euro jury put them 4th, and the juries are human too. They will feel Ukraine when they see it. People need to get out of th bubble and accept a Ukrainian victory.
Honestly, i think that at least 7 -8 out of betting odds’ top 10 are locked in, while at least 2 or 3 will flop and not finish in the top 10 at the end
Which songs do you think are locked in and who do you think are flops then?
I’m not sure , but it’s hard for me to see all of the betting odds’ top 10 actually getting top 10 in the contest. It happens rarely, if ever
The one flop that comes to my mind right now is Australia
The locked in ones are probably italy, ukraine, sweden, spain, the netherlands, norway
I’m sorry, i think Greece is also locked in, which makes it 7 locked ins
“after slaying pre-party gigs across Europe, and she’s been rewarded with big movements in the odds”, this sentence shows everything and how much the eurofans take the bookies as a religion. You slay queen so you will be rewarded by the bookies, what!?… Is it not better to be rewarded by points from the jury and from the public rather than the bookmakers ? Ask to Keiino, Cesar Sampson, Eleni Foureira, Tamara, Sunstroke Project, GO-A, Blind Chanel, and in another hand, Destiny, Francesco Gabbani who were the absolute bookies winners? Come on! This year I’ve avoided since weeks this biased pre… Read more »
Sorry but that article is not accurate. In 11th is Portugal (believe it or not) and has been there for quite some time.
Actually, serbia and portugal are changing their pisitions quite often in the past 2 days
Serbia and Portugal , dark horses
I think it’s interesting nobody mentioned – Croatia. Why? Because Mia was kissing the bottom of the odds prior Eurovision concerts, at 36th place to be precise. A week ago she was 26th, now she’s 22nd. It seems like Mia (Croatia) is constantly climbing which is quite interesting. Her vocals were on point for sure. I still believe it can qualify on surprise to many.
Personally, I avoid the rehearsals because watching and dissecting them spoils the excitement of watching them on TV for me, but I love how the bookies go crazy as rehearsals take place and things shake up.
Pre rehearsal odds are just for interest (I am not convinced Ukraine will win juries don’t seem to love rap).
Azerbaijan was the favourite in 2010 going in (was not great live) and Russia was almost odds on to win in 2016 (juries gave it too much of a gap to make up). If it’s not top three or four with the juries the chances of winning are almost zero.
Ukraine is first because of the war. People outside the eurovision bubble are expected to vote for Ukraine to show support and sympathy. I expected more support from the OGAE too but that hasn’t quite happened. During other circumstanses they would have higher odds. A fact..
Serbia is a possible winner, she odds climbed suddenly after first rehearsal for sure…
Some of my predictions, before the main show kicks-off in May 10th: 1. Slovenia may snatch the last qualifying place thanks to the televote and I also think thst the juries won’t rank them as low as we think. 2. Belgium is doomed, since the song itself looses all it’s potential live (the “Benny Cristo” case) 3. France will flop in the Grand Final, since the coordination between the group is messy live and the girls’ vocals need to be perfect in order for France to even reach the top 10. 4. Spain WON’T be entering the top 5 as… Read more »
Again, those are predictions, not my personal taste (apart from 6,7 and 10) 🙂
I agree on almost everything, but 6 and 10 (not sure about 5). I would love my country (Spain) to reach a top 5, but I am sceptical and I also think we will end up from 6 to 10 (a great result for us nevertheless).
But: 6 – Sorry, I do not see Iceland qualifying
10 – I do believe that Serbian’s originality will be rewarded.
I strongky believe that the televote will award you that top 10 finish anyways (6th higher score in my opinion, around 150 points). On the juries however, I think you may struggle a bit but I also see you earning there no lower than 80 points at least. So, as an overall score, ~230 points which will be great enough, if you ask me.
Also, I WOUPD LOVE TO SEE SERBIA IN THE TOP-5 BUT I’M SCARED THAT THE MAJORITY OF EUROPEAN JURIES WON’T HAVE THE IQ REQUIRED TO UNDERSTAND THE HIDDEN ARTS OF KONSTRAKTA’S ENTRY. :’/
Yes…yes…hidden in the back, behind the great wall. Great wall, great art, great ariel +
what the writer anna annita wanted to say by her vague comment? “great ariel +”? what a deep meaning is hiding behind these great wall of mambo jumbo?
I completely disagree regarding Belgium. Miss You is very underestimated in my opinion. I also do not understand why you compare Jeremie Makiese with Benny Cristo. Is it because they have the same haircut?
I agree with Efthymios. Decent singer, bland song and most of the voting people don’t like r&b-songs.
LMAOOO, I DIDN’T EVEN REGARD THE HAIRCUT!
And also, I may have to elaborate on the case. The song itself is very enjoyable to listen in the studio version (my 15th place) and the r&b genre adds a lot to that. However, just like “omaga”, it has a very high risk of ruining the staging live and make the song sound completely hollow. Not to mention that Jeremie HAS to hit all off his notes and don’t even consider about avoiding most of the major ones (like he did in the pre-parties).
I really think Ireland should host Eurovision 2023 for Ukraine if they win. The Irish government and people have supported the Ukrainian people incredibly the last number of months.
As a Ukrainian I think that Poland would be a perfect choice
You can say this exact thing about most European countries though so I don’t understand why Ireland should be singled out.
Ukraine’s Minister for Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba praised Ireland.
“Ireland is at the forefront within the EU and beyond providing essential support for Ukraine in all possible ways”
Ireland is also a neutral country. And an amazing choice. The best choice is Ukraine obviously.
Again, Ireland is not alone in getting commendation from the Ukrainian government for their help and support. All countries who have supported Ukraine have gotten praise from either Kuleba or Zelensky so why would Ireland “host” when there’s also e.g. Switzerland and Sweden who qualify just by your personal criterias? Hopefully if Ukraine win they will be able to host (and I do believe EBU would do everything in their power to help them do so), otherwise the honour of hosting will be offered to one of the big 5.
Totally agree with your comment, praying for Ukraine to be able to host. I personally can see the EBU selecting a non big 5 country (neutral) and heavily funding the selected country. There are many picks available.
EBU have specific protocols put in place for these kinds of scenarios, so no, unfortunately they will not select a non big 5 country. It’s is stated that if a winning country can’t host the next year (no matter the reason), one of the big 5 will host if for them. This is yet another one of the many “perks” that comes with being a big 5 country.
Offering it to one of the five doesn’t make any more sense than offering it to Ireland. They should just pick the usual way, ask who wants it and see who replies. Then pick the best.
Whether it makes sense to you or not is besides the point. The official way of picking which country to host if the winning country can’t is not to simply “ask who wants it” and then “pick the best” as you say. EBU’s procedure for this kind of scenario is to offer it to one of the big 5 countries. Being a big 5 country comes with a lot of “perks” – this is just one of them.
I’m not sure the person in charge of the broadcaster’s annual budget would see it that way. Can you tell me where I can see this rule? I believe you, but would like to read it myself. How do they decide which of the five? What happens if none of the five want it?
Australia joining in 2015 showed me that rules can be thrown out at any time, anyway.
Said exactly the same…to 20+ more countries…
Well, most European countries if not all, except for 2 or 3 exceptions have supported them. But knowing the toughness of the Ukranians, if there´s a chance to host it in 2023 they will fight for it.
Most European countries supported incredibly, but if one should stand out, it is actually Poland (there are right now more than 2 million Ukrainians there, 2 million).
Great point. I have fond memories of the Euros 2012 football tournament in Poland-Ukraine in 2012. It was an amazing event
I think the right will to host will have a country who scored 2nd place
It will be really interesting to see how the odds shift in the coming weeks!
And considering the rehearsals will start this weekend, we won’t have to wait that long.