As Eurovision week kicks off, here are the biggest changes in the semi-final one odds since the start of rehearsals. You can visit Smarkets to see the latest qualification chances.
Eurovision 2022: Semi-Final 1 odds update before the jury show
Qualification chance: 92% (+17) / Final win chance: 0.5% (-0.1)
Portugal’s Maro impressed me the most out of any of the first semi-finalists in rehearsals, so it’s understandable that her qualification chance rose so heavily. With some intimate staging featuring Maro and her backing singers arranged in a circle (the one that tested positive for Covid didn’t feature in the second and third takes, which opened up the staging much more for viewers) and some gorgeous smoke-filled low angle shots, ‘Saudade, saudade’ comes across really well on screen. Portugal still feels like a dark horse and could go far.
Qualification chance: 90% (+11) / Final win chance: 0.2% (-0.1)
Armenia brought the biggest prop of all to rehearsals, with Rosa Linn performing in a paper-filled bedroom. Without giving too many details, she rips off parts of the wall throughout the song, which is a nice little bit of staging (though a few cues were missed in rehearsals). Given its last spot in the running order, its memorable staging and Rosa Linn’s strong vocals, this should sail through to Saturday’s final.
Qualification chance: 55% (+10) / Final win chance: 0.1% (-0.1)
Latvia found themselves on the better side of the qualification borderline after their energetic second rehearsal. Citi Zēni didn’t bring anything we haven’t seen from them before, but they did a decent job nonetheless. With Albania and Lithuania around them faltering a bit in the odds, ‘Eat Your Salad’ has a better chance of standing out early in the running order. Latvia’s jury score remains a big question mark, however.
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Qualification chance: 46% (-15) / Final win chance: 0.1% (-0.4)
Switzerland’s qualification chance is now closer to where it probably should have been all along, despite what I thought was a decent rehearsal. ‘Boys Do Cry’ has some nice staging elements but remains a televote risk. The question is whether Switzerland’s jury score is enough to take them over the line.
Qualification chance: 35% (-11) / Final win chance: 0.1% (-)
Lithuania’s staging plans seem to have been hindered by the broken kinetic sun and this was reflected by changes in the odds. You could see in rehearsals that Monika Liu didn’t appear as happy or confident as usual, but hopefully she is back to her full self by tomorrow. ‘Sentimentai’ shouldn’t be ruled out for a qualification spot by any means, but staging issues mean Lithuania’s route to the final got a little bit harder over the last week or so.
Qualification chance: 75% (-8) / Final win chance: 0.1% (-0.1)
Albania’s staging wasn’t as strong as we expected and certainly needs some tidying up, but they sadly ended up bearing the brunt of people’s criticisms over the stage itself given that Ronela Hajati was the first artist to rehearse. I don’t think Albania’s qualification chance is particularly in doubt and the odds have perhaps overreacted a little given the strength of the song and the number of televoting friends Albania has in this semi-final, but their ceiling for the final is lower than it once was.
Patrick Flynn is a Politics Analyst at Smarkets. You can follow him on Twitter @patrickjfl.
Which artists have grown the most with you? Which 10 acts do you think will make it through? Let us know in the comments box below.
Portugal is by far the best one.
I feel like ukraine got most votes then greece then norway then the netherlands am i right?
I fell like ukraine got most votes then greece then norway and then the netherlands am i right?
Jokes on the odds. Switzerland and Lithuania qualified last night.
My dear portuguese friends what have you done to your national selection? Im gonna vote for you again this year! 🙂
Im with saudade saudade in the 1st semi final
MARO – Saudade saudade. Due to the number of musicians around the world who love the song, and ESC contestants, I believe that Portugal will win the jury.
Due to the impact she had on Spotify in Portugal and on YouTube in Spain (where the NF was broadcast), she could also win televoting. MARO was a complete stranger but in a few days she managed to surpass two Portuguese stars who have millions of fans in the NF.
Good luck to everyone.
Countrys that are Qualify for sure in my opinion are:
Ukraine, Portugal, The Netherlands, Greece, Norway, Armenia.
For all the others, im not really sure.
Good luck to all of the participating countries tonight and may the best songs & performances qualify.
The Albanian woman looks a bit frightening. I would change the street side when seeing her at night.
Super agressive imho
Whenever a woman is strong and bold, she’s accused of being frightening, hysterical and sometimes worse than that altogether. She’s clearly not my cup of tea either, but come on…
Definitely qualifying are Ukraine, Norway, Latvia, Albania and Moldova. The rest is really up in air. I hope for Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia, Armenia and Austria.
Ukraine, Greece, Netherlands, Norway and Portugal will definitely qualify. Concerning other countries it’s really a competition between them. Also interesting that after yesterdays jury show Italy again improved much in the odds and is 2nd again.
Deserved qualifiers based on what I’ve seen so far
Norway (hate to say it)
Semi final winner should be Greece . The opening of the live performance is simple and fantastic
Near enough you might enter a song yourself seeing as you know more or less what it takes
My prediction for 2022 edition: Ukraine will win and BBC will be the hosting broadcast in London 2023.
P.S. I really don’t want this to happen
And tonight I’m rooting for Portugal, Austria and Slovenia. Don’t care for others.
I can see this happening.
Spain already said it’s ready to host. Anyway, I think it’s probably gonna be Germany or Sweden.
Germany?! Is that a typo?
If UK win, host city would be Manchester most probably – the production office is based there, AJ will present our 12 points from there on Saturday etc etc…
My Qualifiers(mix of what i want with what i think may happen):
I love the Portuguese entry this year. Simple, deep, human…
Three countries I really like to see in the final: Lithuania, Latvia, Slovenia (only one or two might qualify though)
Three that i don’t care for at all: Albania, Greece, Armenia (they will all qualify, though)
Such is the beauty of Eurovision – opinions differ – I know!!!
I hope nobody is singing at a lower key this time around. If their performance doesn’t require them to move around too much, then they can sing the song on stage at the key in which you recorded it. To sing at a lower key diminishes the challenge that they gave themselves when they were in the studio, and I usually penalize anyone on observation who sets their music and vocals at a lower key than what they recorded.
“…then they can sing the song on stage at the key in which they recorded it.”
I really doubt about Latvia’s qualification. Will the jury vote for it? Definitely not, it means they need a huge support from the public, like 100+ points, is it possible with the second running order? I don’t think so.
And I still hope that Monika will qualify, the jury could save her
Justice for Monika!
Will Ukraine really win the tele-vote in the semi finals when a more dedicated eurovision fans will be watching ?
This is not my personal favourites, but predictions.
For one I think Austria and Albania will be inn for a shock. They may qualify but both will be a borderlines.
Q (random order: Netherlands, Norway, Latvia, Greece, Slovenia (!), Switzerland, Albania, Armenia, Portugal, Ukraine
NQ: Austria, Bulgaria, Iceland, Denmark, Croatia, Lithuania
Forgot Moldovia (NQ)
What I want:
Switzerland (my country)
What I expect:
Iceland (either this or Lithuania)
I’m glad you were wrong about Switzerland 🙂
My predictions in random order (last year I had 9/10 in the first semi so let’s see how I’m gonna do now!).
Voting for Portugal, Lithuania and Iceland
I’ve got the same 10 and I also got 9\10 in SF1 last year : )
Who’d you get wrong last year? I put Croatia in and Israel out.
same! i thought Israel was definitely out and Croatia in!
Dang we share the same brain boo haha : D
Can’t believe it’s Eurovision time again and can’t believe this will be my 40th Eurovision : I started watching when Nicole won but the first one I remember is ‘83 with Corinne Hermes. I’ve been lucky enough to have attended 15 finals, my favourite one without doubt was Helsinki, just the best atmosphere. Am I a super fan – absolutely not! Have I ever predicted a winner – absolutely not! Do I know who’s going to qualify – absolutely not! I just love the excitement, the build up and the surprises and best of all, I’ve made friends for life… Read more »
It’s so true – some crazy, whacky, loyal friends from all over Europe and beyond simply because of a shared love of a song contest : now that it worth celebrating!! X
“Si la vie est cadeau” 😉 This will be my… 34th! Started with Céline Dion in 1988 and only missed one edition (2010, I was on a trip to Canada). Never attended a show though. Predicted the winner just once (Loreen). So, happy Eurovision 2022 to you too!
I never even predicted Loreen lol! Who’s your fave this year?
Well… I’d say Italy first, then the Netherlands, France the UK and Portugal. But there are other strong contenders like Sweden, Spain and Ukraine.
Idk why almost everybody here is taking for granted that Norway will make it to the final. It’s got a mixed reception elsewhere and I seriously doubt juries will love them :/
Although we can’t make predictions, really, let me give you my feeling which countries are to qualify. It’s a gut feeling that is sometimes biased by preferences (Although I try to contain it).
QUALIFYING: Ukraine, Greece, Netherlands, Norway, Armenia, Switzerland
MAYBE NOT: Albania, Moldova
MAYBE YES: Lithuania, Austria, Iceland, Slovenia
NOT QUALIFYING: Bulgaria, Denmark,Croatia, Latvia, Portugal
Unrelated but the stage appears to be working again, not sure if this means we can use the pre-malfunction choreo since there’s little to no rehearsal time. But the LED’s should be usable.
OK these are my finalized SF1 predictions! : ) Warning this will be long sorry haha. 1. Ukraine: I think either Greece or Ukraine will win this semifinal. My pick is Ukraine because I am more confident they will have strong appeal from both sides. 2. Greece: Greece was deemed as the same boat as Netherlands in terms of jury strength and potential winning chances, however after the semifinal I feel Greece has risen above Netherlands in nearly every aspect. This will draw a lot of people to it because how amazing of a singer Amanda is and the way… Read more »
Latvia and Norway stand out in the semi final 1. Both are second – just from different angles. 🙂
Voting for S10, Ronela, and LPS tomorrow
you’ve made the sun move
can you please make our girl Monika qualify
Tommorow (from France) i ll vote for ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? and ??
And if youre asking why its just obvious 😉
I put the flags but it doesnt work…. Lithuania, Moldova, Portugal, Ukraine, Thé Netherlands and Iceland 🙂
I need to taste this Thé Netherlands
Unrelated but if anybody could help this american gal out a bit it would be great. Peacock is streaming esc but only on premium – which really sucks. If yall know any broadcasters that don’t geoblock let me know!
I don’t know for sure, but I’ve heard people say SVT and RTÉ.
I’ve used SVT and RTE in the past because they are playable in the US. RTE usually posts the show the day after though, so if you want an immediate replay, go with Sweden, though bear the Swedish commentary.
For Peacock, I would temporarily upgrade to Premium for Eurovision, but put it back to the free tier before the pay period kicks in.
I watched the Swedish tv stream last year from the US, it was good quality with commentary in English. Not sure if it will be available again this year.
This podcast site has some good info
Thanks for the help!
Try watching from SVT. I used them when the geoblock went up on YouTube. Now I have a VPN.
Better yet, go to svtplay.se and type ‘Eurovision Song Contest’ in the search bar. Sweden also has an SVT Play app in GooglePlay for Android. I don’t know if they have it for Apple iOS.
The thing with betting odds is that they usually have the right six-seven songs on top (even if not always in the same order), but the borderline places usually tend to miss one or two each time. So, I expect, and hope that they have it right with Ukraine, Greece, Norway, Netherlands, Armenia, and Portugal. 🙂 Albania is almost a safe bet too. The *only* chance is if people find it too messy, while not punchy enough, and Latvia takes the spotlight right after (their color grading is really memorable). My prediction now is: ALBANIA ARMENIA AUSTRIA GREECE LATVIA LITHUANIA… Read more »
I’m sorry, I can’t allow eleven wishes. Ten only.
Tenth place would depend on the performance. Albania is particularly an entry highly dependent on its energy on stage. If Ronela nails it perfectly, I might put her as my 10th in the Q category. If not, Slovenia takes it instead.
Okay, that is reasonable. Make sure to cast your wish before the wishing lines close.
Hey, this is radio station W S K E E
We’re takin’ calls on the wish line
Making all your wacky wishes come true
I wish I was little bit taller
I wish I was a baller
I wish I had a girl who looked good
I would call her
I wish I had a rabbit in a hat with a bat
And a six four Impala
I really hope Latvia qualifies, I love Citi Zeni and Latvia is one of my favorite countries at eurovision.
Well it won’t be Ukraine this year surely!
The most shocking result tomorrow would be Bulgaria advancing to the final. Considering it’s the only rock song, chances are higher than predicted.
Denmark is also a rock song. Soft rock, but so is Bulgaria. Also, Moldova claims to be rock in their lyrics (but it’s not rock).
Ukraine (possible SF winner)
Greece (possible SF winner)
Norway (possible SF winner)
Qualification more possible than NQ
NQ more possible than qualification
See you next year
Lmao, see you next year. Why is Slovenia there… :’))
Mmm… The only two that really suck tonight were Croatia and Denmark… I wouldn’t put anyone else on the next year bin yet… And certainly not those two who had strong showings…
LMAO Norway is a borderline qualifier at best
The juries might get Switzerland or Bulgaria instead of Austria inside the Top 10 though.
Portugal tomorrow, Ireland on Thursday.
I am french and all my favorites (except Austria) are on the 2nd semi, I think I will keep my money to vote for the final
If you saw Albania’s jury show on twitter, you’d see that the performance is absolutely ICONIC. They may as well win the televote.
Ukraine Norway 100%
Greece Netherlands Portugal Moldova 80%
Albania Armenia Austria 60%
Lithuania Slovenia Switzeland 50%
Latvia Denmark Iceland 30%
Croatia Bulgaria 10%
For me Armenia Albania or Greece could be shocking NQ, and Slovenia Denmark or Iceland surprise Q
Lmao, that’s a horrible prediction.
? Do you think Coratia and Bulgaria will actually being qualified ?
I had 8/10 and Albania out so ????
Interesting … and I like it!
Greece will qualify, they always do 🙂
can’t wait for Diodato’s performance tho
I can’t wait either. He was so robbed by the cancellation in 2020, and now he finally gets his chance to perform at Eurovision.
Really hope BBC shows Diodato (and not some unnecessary pre-recorded insert)
I can’t believe Eurovision actually starts tomorrow! It just seemed like yesterday when the national final season finished up and I thought it would be a long wait between then and now, but time flew by quickly. I can’t wait for this week! I will admit I’m going to be nervous during the qualifier announcement because there is one country I really want to see make the final, but I am nervous it might not make it–Lithuania. Now, I know it’s not the only vulnerable country in this semi final, but it’s the one I am championing for. I admit… Read more »
I feel you sis, I really hope a miracle happens and Lithuania makes it through. Fingers crossed! 🙂
I would say Armenia, Greece, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal and Ukraine are all sure qualifiers. Lithuania and Albania pretty sure about them as well. But then I find it hard to choose my last two qualifiers. Latvia and Moldova are both fun songs that could do well in the televote, Iceland could be very magical on stage, and Austria would be a safe finalist if Pia Maria’s vocals are good. I’m so excited for tomorrow!
I think it is time to finally share my prediction for this semi final along with reasoning. Qualifiers Albania – Aside from a bumpy road during rehearsals, this has been a sure qualifier for me from day one. The song has all the elements of a good ethnic bop and Ronela performs it with a lot of energy. Latvia – Reminds me of Iceland 2014, which is a good thing. Again, they are giving it socks on stage and I believe that they can pull through, even from the second spot. It’s just so much fun. Ukraine – All I’ll… Read more »
After being at the arena tonight I would say Denmark out (it’s really too messy, nothing’s gonna save it really) and Austria (because Pia Maria actually delivered) or Lithuania (because Monika was, as always, magic, in.
Yeah. I always end up second guessing the closer I get to a semi final. I woke up this morning and now think that Lithuania and Austria will qualify instead of Denmark and Iceland.
Glad that my two personal favorites, Armenia and especially Portugal, are moving up the ranks. Also glad that Poland is in a free fall.
Of course they are. This happens when you bring dancing zombies and cringey effects on stage…
My prediction is Ukraine, Greece, Netherlands, Norway, Armenia, Iceland, Lithuania, Austria, Albania and Portugal.
Alright, here’s my personal and possibly actual qualifiers of this semi-final:
-My personal qualifiers (random order):
Moldova or Lithuania (difficult to choose but I hope for the later)
Jury winner Greece and televote winner Ukraine or Norway maybe?
My prediction for qualifiers: Greece, Ukraine, Norway, Portugal, Netherlands, Armenia, Albania, Latvia, Lithuania, and one of Austria, Moldova and Iceland.