Photo: Yle / Nelli Kenttä

Fifteen countries will compete in Semi-Final 1 of Eurovision 2023. But only ten can advance to the grand final. Among those expected to make it through are three fan favourites from the Nordics  — Finland, Sweden and Norway. But as we move down the list of participants much still seems up in the air.

As fans assess the odds and lay their bets, we thought we’d catch up with Patrick Flynn, Politics Analyst at Smarkets and a Eurovision betting expert. Below is his take on the chances of qualification for each of the Semi-Final 1 participants.

Visit the Smarkets Eurovision 2023: Semi-final 1 winner market.

Eurovision 2023: Semi-final 1 odds preview

 
 
 
 
 
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Norway

98% chance of qualification

‘Queen of Kings’ is an instantly accessible pop song (undoubtedly ready for a second wave of TikTok virality) in an environment where many will be hearing the entries for the first time. It’s a clear contender for a top three finish in the semi-final, even from first in the running order. However, I don’t see Norway as a contender for the overall win despite their lofty position (fifth) in the market.

Malta

34% chance of qualification

Poor Malta has been hampered with the so-called ‘death slot’ in the running order. Just two songs in this position have been televote qualifiers out of the last 16 semi-finals, so it’s going to be an uphill battle for The Busker. With that being said, some of the stigma around slot two stems from the fact that songs drawn in second over the years have generally been quite weak, whereas I think this entry is stronger.

Malta isn’t doing very well in Eurovision fan metrics, but this is the type of entry that should go down a bit better with casual viewers. From what I’ve read and experienced myself, the song seems to be received more warmly outside the Eurovision bubble. If it’s performed with an appealing nerdy charm, Malta could well sneak through.

Serbia

67% chance

Despite the early running order, one should always be wary of underestimating Serbia. Their voting pull means they have never finished lower than 11th in a semi-final in their 13 participations. On all three occasions they failed to qualify, they finished in the highest non-qualifying position.

‘Samo mi se spava’ might be a little alienating for some viewers, but it has staging potential, should stand out in the running order and certainly isn’t weak enough to overhaul Serbia’s historic record. The country’s 77% qualification rate feels like a decent estimate of Luke Black’s prospects.

Latvia

36% chance

It’s a bit of a shame that Sudden Lights are so early in the running order given Latvia’s extremely poor qualification record, one which has seen them make the grand final just twice out of the last 13 attempts. For me, ‘Aijā’ is the strongest Latvian entry since 2016 and a good change of direction. In an evenly split televote/jury semi-final, this would stand a better chance of qualifying, aided by its jury-friendly credentials.

In the last 10 semi-finals, just two of the first five songs have been televote qualifiers on average. Given the entries around them, I suspect that means the grand final will remain elusive for Latvia.

Portugal

61% chance

Initially 11th in the qualification odds, Mimicat has moved up to 10th after the negative reaction to the Dutch pre-party performances. While Portugal has some friends voting in this semi-final, this feels like one that could go either way.

My main doubts stem from the song’s ‘votability’. I don’t think anyone is going to have a viscerally negative reaction to ‘Ai coração’, but will it be enough people’s favourite?

Ireland

25% chance

Ireland’s one-in-eight qualification record looks set to extend to one-in-nine. I don’t see this progressing.

Croatia

67% chance

In my view, Croatia ought to be higher than a 67% qualification chance for a televote-only semi-final. The shock factor of ‘Mama ŠČ!’ and Let 3’s on-stage shenanigans will make it one of the most memorable entries of the night, sticking in viewers’ minds come voting time.

I don’t like using the word novelty as a catch-all term for entries like this as it tends to overlook songs with an actual meaning and purpose behind them (similar to Austria this year and Serbia last year). So for lack of a better term, when I refer to novelty I mean a song with a unique quality whose appeal will be disproportionately geared towards casual viewers and probably wouldn’t be picked up in fan polls.

I don’t buy the argument for a second that there is only room for one ‘novelty’ song to do well, or that Let 3 will be overshadowed by other unconventional entries in this semi-final. Both Moldova and Norway made the top four in the semi-final one televote last year, and Ukraine topped it (obviously ‘Stefania’ wasn’t a novelty song, but it had a unique factor which led casual viewers to support it in droves).

In the Eurovision televote, it’s much better to be loved by 10% of viewers and hated by 90% than to be merely tolerated by everyone. As I say every year: televoters can’t vote against a song at Eurovision. This will be many people’s least favourite, but there’s not much those people can do to register their displeasure.

Switzerland

67% chance

There is a strange dynamic with the Swiss entry that we will undoubtedly come across more often in the new televote-only semi-final era. Here we have a song that could plausibly make the jury’s top ten in the grand final, but jurors may never get the chance to vote for it.

With Croatia and Switzerland both rated a 67% chance of qualifying, this seems like the weaker option. Switzerland doesn’t have many traditional voting allies and ‘Watergun’ isn’t the type of song which usually lights up the televote. Remo Forrer is a good vocalist but I still have some concerns over his stage presence and how he will connect with the camera.

Perhaps some of the Croatia/Switzerland equivalence stems from people subconsciously thinking semi-finals are still 50/50. I ran an experiment on Twitter recently and asked ‘Who will get more televote points: Croatia or Switzerland?’ I thought Croatia would win that poll quite comfortably and they did, with around 80% of the vote. So why are the two rated equally-likely to qualify, next to each other in the running order, in a televote only semi-final?

‘Watergun’ being one of the only ballads in this heat means it should stand out more than it would have in semi-final one last year, for example, but for me this remains a borderline pick.

Israel

97% chance

Israel is one of the biggest unknowns in this semi-final. At time of writing, there hasn’t been a single live performance of ‘Unicorn’ and Noa Kirel did not appear at any of the pre-parties (including the one in her own country). It’s surprising, as Noa seems like a pretty strong singer from what I’ve seen and, as one of Israel’s biggest popstars, you would think that the Israeli delegation would be keen to promote her as much as possible.

The potential in this song lies mainly in its final 30 seconds and whether the staging team can create a ‘wow’ moment from it (possibly going down the Armenia 2016 route). The Israeli team has shown time and time again their expertise in staging upbeat numbers with slick, dance-driven performances. There’s potential for this to rival Norway for a top three spot.

Moldova

90% chance

Moldova has become something of a recent televoting powerhouse at Eurovision, with four top five finishes in the semi-final televote in the last five years.

Pasha Parfeni may be able to carve out a niche in this semi-final with his Eastern-European folktronica song with a strong cultural identity, which could see Moldova pick up some big scores from parts of Europe. The Moldovan diaspora in Italy should also see them rewarded by last year’s hosts. ‘Soarele și luna’ is a likely qualifier but I’m not sure I’d go quite as high as 90%.

Sweden

>99% chance

‘Tattoo’ is a near-certain qualifier and the overall favourite to win the contest right now with a 54% chance. Loreen is the understandable front-runner given everything we know so far, but 54% still feels a little too high for me.

Sweden quite rightfully has a phenomenal record at Eurovision in the last 15 years but their televote underperformance relative to the jury side is a long-standing issue. Their highly polished and technically-strong entries appeal to jurors and industry experts, but televoters generally tend to be much more driven by raw emotion and feeling than technical strength or radio-friendly credentials.

With that said, the pre-parties have highlighted Loreen’s great strength as a performer even without staging, with her and Blanca Paloma being the two standouts of this year’s circuit for me.

If Sweden goes on to win, I think we’ll probably be looking at a 2015-style result with a very strong jury score and around third place in the televote. It’s worth remembering, though, that jury-friendly quality has also improved at Eurovision since Loreen’s first win and we have three songs already in the final: France, Spain and Italy, which should all be faring well on that side of the scoreboard and may eat into Sweden’s potential score.

Concerns remain around the stage show and how it’s going to be adapted from Melodifestivalen. It seems like the staging will still take a while to set up given that Sweden is positioned just after where the breaks usually are in the semi-finals. In all likelihood, the same will be the case in the final. If Loreen is drawn in the second half, she’s almost destined to be placed in position 17. Not only is this traditionally just after the second-half break, it’s also the position she won from in 2012 and could be a sign that the Eurovision gods are on her side this year.

However, if drawn in the first half, Sweden may not get as late a draw as you might expect. My money would be on position nine, with the first grand final break usually coming after song eight. It’s worth remembering that you have to go all the way back to 2003 to find a winner that was performed in a single-digit running order slot.

Azerbaijan

14% chance

Unfortunately for Azerbaijan, TuralTuranX are the sacrificial lambs of the running order and have to perform in the shadow of Loreen. It’s refreshing to see that Azerbaijan have sent something self-penned, but it’s highly unlikely we’ll see them in the grand final this year.

Czech Republic

93% chance

Alongside Israel, Czech Republic is the other big unknown because so much of the song’s potential comes from how it ends up being staged.

Having watched all the pre-party performances, Vesna would probably win my award for most improved, with their display now beginning to pack a punch. There’s still some way to go and a strong staging concept (perhaps influenced by the music video) will be required for this to have any chance of pulling in very high scores in the final.

There were rumours of the Czech broadcaster withdrawing from the contest this year, so my main concern is that the team won’t have a big budget staging-wise. However, the Czech delegation have shown themselves to be pretty adept at crafting visual performances over the years, even without a huge budget (see 2018, 2019 and 2022). The potential is there for Vesna, I just hope it can be unlocked.

Netherlands

52% chance

Just a month ago, the Netherlands were trading as high as 76% to qualify. By all metrics, Mia Nicolai and Dion Cooper had the most difficult pre-party season, with ‘Burning Daylight’ faring poorly on the My Eurovision Scoreboard app in recent weeks. After a negative reception to some of the live performances, Dutch qualification prospects have now fallen to 52%.

It’s worth remembering that the Eurovision pre-parties are usually the nadir when it comes to vocal performance, with artists only getting very short sound checks and having to perform at venues with sound capabilities incomparable to the actual Eurovision stage.

Given the very late running order slot, the inherent quality of the recorded entry and the Dutch expertise in crafting a good live show, the fundamentals are on the duo’s side and this could still qualify despite the recent loss of momentum. 

However, early performances can still point us in the general direction of where an entry is headed. Austria showed us at the pre-parties last year that the vocal capacity was seriously lacking and they ended up crashing out in the semi-final.

Finland

>99% chance

Like Sweden, Finland is a near-certain qualifier and is the most likely winner of this televote-only semi-final.

‘Cha Cha Cha’ is also my pick for most likely televote winner in the final. This is the type of song you’d expect to go down well with casual viewers on the Saturday evening, so the fact that Finland is now beating Sweden in the OGAE poll and is competitive on the My Eurovision Scoreboard app (both environments which should be very favourable to Loreen) bodes very well and suggests Finland could end up racking up a 300+ televote score with a second-half draw.

While I’d bet my house (well, rented flat) on Finland making the final, I do have a small reservation about whether this will click on first listen with casual viewers. I wasn’t a huge fan on first listen back in January and now it’s my favourite of the year, so I speak from experience here. General audiences may not click with it massively at first but could end up Cha-Cha-Cha-ing in their sleep by the time the final comes along.

Let’s remember that Netta in 2018, with another big, energetic song affectionately (or disparagingly) referred to as the ‘chicken song’ by many a casual viewer, didn’t top the televote scoreboard in the semi-final, despite going on to win it comfortably in the final. In fact, ‘Toy’ only managed joint-fourth place in the semi-final televote, tied with Austria’s Cesár Sampson (Israel got 317 televote points in the final while Austria had to settle for a mid-table 71).

Finland may similarly benefit from a ‘you know what, I didn’t like this at first but I quite like it now’ reaction from general audiences, assigning Käärijä an almost underdog quality that they want to root for. That’s ironic given Finland is second favourite to win the whole thing!

Predicted qualifiers (in descending order of likelihood)

Finland, Sweden, Norway, Israel, Czech Republic, Moldova, Serbia, Croatia, Portugal, Netherlands.

One final thing I want to say to readers is to remember that odds are not prescriptive, and you should take note of the uncertainty they provide. The distinction between tenth and eleventh place in the qualification odds is essentially an arbitrary one, and does not suggest that the betting markets are predicting the top ten will all qualify. Mathematically, it’s extremely unlikely that the ten most likely qualifiers will all make it through, so keep that in mind before writing any song off entirely or assuming that a song with a 75% qualification chance is safely through. Remember that a 75% qualification chance also means there is a 25% chance it won’t qualify — if songs with a 75% chance qualified every time, the odds would be inaccurate!

Patrick Flynn is a Politics Analyst at Smarkets. You can follow him on Twitter @patrickjfl.

 

69 Comments
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Patrick Pastor
Patrick Pastor
1 year ago

I still think that Czechia will probably qualify.

Of course, qualifying for the final and actually winning it are two very different things. If they don’t step up their game from the NF, their chances of doing well are in serious trouble.

Héctor
Héctor
1 year ago

As I see it now prior to the rehearsals:

100% – Sweden
100% – Finland
100% – Norway
90% – Israel
75% – Moldova
70% – Serbia
60% – Czech Republic
55% – Portugal
55% – Latvia
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
45% – Croatia
45% – The Netherlands
35% – Switzerland
30% – Malta
15% – Azerbaijan
15% – Ireland

What I want:

LATVIA QUALIFYING.

Benito Camelo
Benito Camelo
1 year ago

I’m not as sure as the odds are about Israel, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Czechia qualifying. Malta, Latvia and Ireland might stand a chance after all, and I’d be over the moon if Latvia ultimately makes it through! 😀

Raven
Raven
1 year ago

I think the Netherlands has a bit of a higher chance of qualifying after their live performance yesterday. Vocally they were pretty good, and it seemed like they had more chemistry. I’m just worried about the running order. it’s between Czechia and Finland, so I’m kind of worried that lots of people will use it as a “bathroom break” or something. But i guess it depends on how Vesna sounds during their performance, because so far they’re not the best vocally and their staging is pretty confusing, which is disappointing because they’re in my top 5

Zanoni
Zanoni
1 year ago

Presuming the rest of the world can vote in this semi, I’ll probably throw Serbia and Portugal a few votes, but really focus on Latvia.

Doggy Bark
Doggy Bark
1 year ago

It’s a pity I cannot vote for Malta as I am now living in Malta. But for some reason I am confident they are going to make it. It is a song that catches attention from first listen and they will have a share of viewers wanting to vote for them. I even think they have better chances than the Netherlands and Moldova. Serbia and Croatia are eccentric but I don’t see a lot of people voting for them, especially Croatia.

Zisk
Zisk
1 year ago

I think 9 of these spots are a lock and it’s just between Netherlands/Lativa/Switzerland for the 10th.

Addie
Addie
1 year ago

These predictions never fail to ruin my hopes each year.

Addie
Addie
1 year ago
Reply to  Addie

No hate directed towards Patrick though, he seems to have good taste. It’s just that when they say it this close to the rehearsals, it makes me a nervous wreck

Itchybean
Itchybean
1 year ago

Juries should be scrapped altogether.
They have no use and are bias towards certain countries especially Sweden.
People might say well the public might vote for silly songs therefore ruining the competition.
I’d rather have a silly song win that keep seeing the same old pop Swedish song voted for by the juries

Colin
Colin
1 year ago
Reply to  Itchybean

Everyone has biases. Serbia giving Croatia 12 points for Celebrate in 2011, Cyprus awarding Greece 12 points for Mia krifi evaisthisia in 1998? Seriously, it’s a joke. If you’d play the same songs to the same audiences with a different country’s name attached below, they’d likely score zero points. Granted, the jury love for Sweden is also getting out of hand, and I hope that the points get more evenly distributed in the finals.

Patrick Pastor
Patrick Pastor
1 year ago
Reply to  Itchybean

When the juries are in, people complain about how they ruin everything.
When the juries are out, people complain about how “stupid” songs keep getting into the final.

Colin
Colin
1 year ago

Most of my favorites are in this semi, including 3 among my top 5: Finland, Serbia, Latvia. I think I’ll give a ceremonial vote for both Finland and Serbia, but it’s Latvia I’m mostly calling for. The reason is the following: Finland will Q either way, and doesn’t need my help. Serbia will likely Q, but even if it does not, *one category* in which they’ll certainly get 12, or at least 10 points is the Croatian televote. Latvia, one the other hand… yeah, I can see that my voting can actually make a change in that department. I’d hope… Read more »

Addie
Addie
1 year ago
Reply to  Colin

Nice to see that we have the same three countries in our top 5! Which two are the other countries??

Colin
Colin
1 year ago
Reply to  Addie

Spain (AQ) and Austria (my 2nd semi winner).

Panna
Panna
1 year ago
Reply to  Colin

I have seen so many fans saying that they will give majority of their votes to Latvia. We can hope that it will help getting enough points for it to qualify.

Amar pelos dois
Amar pelos dois
1 year ago

My prediction

Sure Q Finland, Sweden, Norway
Likely Q Serbia, Moldova, Portugal
Borderline Q Israel, Czechia, Switzerland
Borderline NQ Netherland,. Latvia, Malta
LIkely NQ Azerbaijan, Ireland

Anonymous91
Anonymous91
1 year ago

if Netherlands nq’s consider me their 2024 representative and that’s a promise 😉

Amar pelos dois
Amar pelos dois
1 year ago

In my opinion Israel ist too much overhyped and Czechia could be in trouble.

Jofty
Jofty
1 year ago

The second of the two possibly, yes. Another Horehronie moment.

NickC
NickC
1 year ago

It will be my first year to vote in Eurovision (as part of ROW), despite watching and it religiously since the 80s. And I can tell you this, I will vote for Portugal, Malta and the Netherlands. Not everything has to be crazy, overproduced or radio friendly. I personally like quirky, authentic and relatable.

apollinischesprinzip
apollinischesprinzip
1 year ago
Reply to  NickC

kind of taste <3

Mark
Mark
1 year ago
Reply to  NickC

Sounds more like Serbia should be your pick then, maybe even Finland. Well, your call

Wert
Wert
1 year ago

Israel is bit of a wildcard: she hasn’t sung Unicorn live, performance is a big question and her past success means nothing to casual viewers who hear her name for the first time.

Serbia might struggle with vocals and the song isn’t typical so it might be seen as an odd entry.

Latvia/Ireland/Malta might stand a chance and knock either one of the above out, maybe even both?

Rambo Amadeus
Rambo Amadeus
1 year ago
Reply to  Wert

Nope, Serbia has never finished lower than 11th in a SF and those were with really weak entries (2013 and 2017) so Luke Black is absolutely 100% guaranteed to qualify. There is ZERO hype for Ireland otherwise, they’re not knocking anyone out as they’re pretty much a certain NQ.

Panna
Panna
1 year ago
Reply to  Wert

I think the song that might be “knocked out” is Switzerland. Not so sure if the audience will like it enough to actually vote for it. So if either Latvia or Malta is qualifying, it will most likely be over Switzerland. BUT with rehearsals still ahead, any of those might become a certain qualifier and someone unexpected can flop.

Eurofab
Eurofab
1 year ago

So this quickly turned from semi odds into the usual ”why Sweden won’t win” article… Fine. But in all this ”Sweden don’t get public votes” assumptions, no one mentions that Finland usually doesn’t get that either.
It is all UP TO THE SONG. Not the country.

Jofty
Jofty
1 year ago
Reply to  Eurofab

2006?

apollinischesprinzip
apollinischesprinzip
1 year ago

my prediction: Finland (lock) Sweden (lock) Israel (lock) Norway (lock) Czech Republic (almost certain) the Netherlands (almost certain) Serbia (almost certain) Croatia (border-line) Latvia (border-line) Portugal (border-line) Moldova (border-line) Switzerland (likely out) Malta (out) Ireland (out) Azerbaijan (out) Let me explain myself: Ballads will make it through, whether you like it or not. There’s no way that the Netherlands and Latvia would stay in the semis, while for example malta and Moldova or Croatia qualifying. We need at least 2 slower songs to make it and I believe we will also get them. Latvia is too special and good to… Read more »

Panna
Panna
1 year ago

These are all very good and reasonable opinions. Fingers crossed for Latvia, but at the same time I do not want anyone else to flop 🙁

Brett Young
Brett Young
1 year ago

It will be interesting this year because entries can’t hope for jury love in a semi final, but you need some jury quality to win overall. Direct finalists can pander to juries because they are not having to rely purely on public voting. There could be some unusual semi final and final scoreboards this year: songs with public appeal in the semi finals may not do as well overall if the juries don’t like them. Don’t be surprised if we see a song that wins a semi final finish outside the top 10 in the final because of the jury… Read more »

Jofty
Jofty
1 year ago
Reply to  Brett Young

Albania’s staging “inappropriate” – LOL

Escfan
1 year ago

Its hilarious in one sense but for my country to keep being told its entries are bad (which I’m not excusing, they are most of the time,incl this year) you can get fed up of it (talking about Irish fans themselves). Azerbaijan, not a terrible entry by an strestretch but it does lack that competitive edge. I think it could’ve had a somewhat better chance if the UK was voting in this semi but yeah I dont mind the song. Latvia 2017, I genuinely never knew what people saw in it, the song didnt do anything for me unfortunately, visually… Read more »

Escfan
1 year ago
Reply to  Escfan

Im aware the broadcaster is not the most representative of its people but I certainly think for a number of Irish people, it would be nice for once in a long time (I’m aware we qualified in 2018 but tbh no one was really looking out for us that year either) if idk, we weren’t bad. Also as you’ve mentioned in your comment, I can’t relate to what you’ve mentioned, I think its definitely possible to enjoy esc without your country competing but I personally would love for my country to have an entry that I can be proud of… Read more »

Escfan
1 year ago

I preferred the version of the dutch entry I saw last night compared to the studio version.

I do hope Latvia qualifies though,I’ll be voting it

Escfan
1 year ago

I agree with pretty much everything being said here, either in terms of qualification or preference or both. I know some may argue with me on this,I’m still not convinced of Croatia’s qualification chances. I think its expected to qualify for most given its quirky nature (I’m talking in terms of appealing to a televote, not necessarily attempting to downplay its message). However, theres some caveats I have with this. 1. There’s a lot of songs pandering to the televote in this semi (probably because its a televote semi). There’s roughly 8-9 televote friendly songs that people have consider as… Read more »

apollinischesprinzip
apollinischesprinzip
1 year ago
Reply to  Escfan

exactly, that’s my point as well. there’s a lack of ballads in this semi and people love ballads as well. we only have the Netherlands and Switzerland. As you said last year in the first semi all Iceland, Armenia, Lithuania, Greece, Portugal and the Netherlands qualified with the televoters – that’s 6/10 slower songs. Latvia and Austria didn’t qualify, Albania almost didn’t (even their televoters were mostly countries with Albanian diaspora – Italy, Switzerland, Greece, Slovenia). The genre doesn’t really matter that much therefore I think Latvia and the Netherlands are making it. There’s no way we are going to… Read more »

Panna
Panna
1 year ago
Reply to  Escfan

Don’t forget that Iceland was a televote qualifier last year as well

Jo.
Jo.
1 year ago

I think either Portugal or the Netherlands won’t make it, the rest is locked

Jesiah
Jesiah
1 year ago

Can’t wait for noa to do better than yalls faves while trash youth will get last with not even a single person voting for it omfg

Escfan
1 year ago
Reply to  Jesiah

Like why the whole trash youth thing? I dont like my country’s entry but I’m not unnecessarily sh*tting on them especially considering no one incl myself thinks it will qualify, like its just pointless to say things like that.

Dawid
Dawid
1 year ago

I just want to be surprised. Imagine Sweden staying in semi O: i mean that’s too much but i don’t want to see all predictable results

Henry
Henry
1 year ago
Reply to  Dawid

Imagine Kaarija opening the GF so the Queen Loreen is officially left with no competition.

Escfan
1 year ago
Reply to  Dawid

That would be a plot twist and a half.

Anonymous91
Anonymous91
1 year ago
Reply to  Dawid

there’s no way that Loreen will nq, do you really think they count all those votes lol

Loreen, Kaarija, Alessandra are certain finalists already

Anonymous91
Anonymous91
1 year ago

i feel Latvia could’ve had more chances last year if they went with Bujans and the He, She, You & Me huge nightclub potential banger <3

you are forgiven, Latvia deserve to qualify more than us having had a big nq streak now, we can know what that feels like too 2005-2012 nq streak of ours

Sanne
Sanne
1 year ago

You ask why Switzerland is almost at even with Croatia? I’ll explain. With Croatia you said: many will have this as their last place. But you can’t vote against a song. I’ll say: you kinda can. Those people, the people who find Croatia too much, will vote for Switzerland. And that’s a lot of people. I’ll even say for me, it’s more sure than Croatia (remember in the 2000’s not even the Dustin Turkey’s could qualify). Crazy or novelty doesn’t guarantee a qualification

Henry
Henry
1 year ago
Reply to  Sanne

To vote “against” a song you’d have to send 10 votes for other 10 artists. It’s only the juries than can neutralise any televote winner by putting them in the bottom. Normal peple cannot “neutralise” the jury vote, but only vote in favour. That’s the whole point of this brilliant farce about the “equal vote” than has been successfully implemented both at the ESC and national finlas, like Mello or KE.

Anonymous91
Anonymous91
1 year ago
Reply to  Sanne

message wise is also almost similar, although Croatia’s just feels more genuine with the band having lots of experience as leftists for quite some time, as well as plenty of performing experience of over 30 years + many awards won in their country too Remo’s feels cliché to me because 1) Switzerland very much known for being neutral 2) it is a very wealthy country, very expensive to live there ok fair enough the Swiss do have mandatory military service but because of being neutral, very unlikely he’ll get shipped off to other countries where there are ongoing wars song… Read more »

Rambo Amadeus
Rambo Amadeus
1 year ago
Reply to  Sanne

I think the closest comparisons you could draw from ESC history to Croatia 2023 may actually be Finland 2015 and Austria 2003. That Finnish entry is so much weaker than Let 3’s, yet it would have still qualified with televote-only, while Austria placed 6th back then if I got that correctly, so Croatia’s chances are looking quite good at the moment I’d say.

Henry
Henry
1 year ago
Reply to  Sanne

Besides, the Croatian “message” is only known to ESC fans who google the lyrics etc, which won’t be the case with the audience.

The Swiss message is ambiguous, but the best I can make of it is that the singer supports the government’s reluctance to sending weapons to Ukraine, if I understand correctly.

Escfan
1 year ago
Reply to  Sanne

They have dancing, I dont think it should be assumed that itll be similar to Luca Hänni’s choreography. We’ll see relatively soon what it’ll be like

Escfan
1 year ago
Reply to  Escfan

Not suggesting you’re wrong be ause ive no idea of what exactly theyre planning but that’d be pretty st*pid of the delegation to have that style of dancing in their performance. I dont think the song needs dancing to begin with but if they insist of having it than I’d imagine contemporary would be far more suitable.

Henry
Henry
1 year ago

Latvia and Ireland are better than half of the predicted qualifiers, this is a joke.

Andy
Andy
1 year ago

Despite the song being one of my favourites , Switzerland has some dancers joining and it is said to be the show is going to be a mix of Luca Haenni / Marius Bear that doesn’t sound good to me at all !

now that i see the light
now that i see the light
1 year ago

This semi final has heavy favourites for sure and i don’t think it has sure non qualifiers.
I still believe anyone here is able to qualify , including Malta and Azerbaijan

Antrasyt
Antrasyt
1 year ago

A world where Switzerland’s qualification is certain is a nebulous world. As for Israel, I doubt that the qualification is also certified.
Malta and Latvia could steal the qualification like two Prometheus!

Jofty
Jofty
1 year ago
Reply to  Antrasyt

Israel is a certain qualifier

Sanne
Sanne
1 year ago
Reply to  Antrasyt

I could see Malta sneaking in, but Switzerland is quite sure to me because everyone who will be turned off by Croatia will vote for Switzerland

Escfan
1 year ago
Reply to  Antrasyt

I’m not counting out Israel because theyre putting a lot of money behind theyre staging and Noa is a big artist in Israel who I’m sure has had plenty of experience singing live.

Colin
Colin
1 year ago
Reply to  Antrasyt

Malta and Latvia instead of Switzerland and Israel, with other 8 being as predicted sounds like a fantastic outcome to me.

Thallo
Thallo
1 year ago

I really don’t think Switzerland will qualify, I could see the public giving more votes to Malta.

Unfortunately, I think Portugal is in danger.

Sanne
Sanne
1 year ago
Reply to  Thallo

Switzerland has a better running order. Croatia is all over the place. And the many people who find it too much or hate it, will go for Switzerland.

Anonymous91
Anonymous91
1 year ago
Reply to  Thallo

i feel Switzerland has more chances of coming near last or last in semi (if Marius only got 11 points from televote in semi last year, this has a similar dark vibe but with dancers which does not make much sense either, can’t see him do much better and this time no juries to save them) i can also see Malta doing well, more of a borderline q/nq material, it has grown on me recently some more i feel Ireland might surprise people too, it is at least somewhat anthemic, can see it avoiding one of the semi’s bottom places… Read more »

Escfan
1 year ago
Reply to  Anonymous91

Watergun is more instantaneous sonically than Boys do cry (not suggesting it would contend for a top place finish in the semis but perhaps is more competitive than its predecessor).

All depends on how its staged.

yoo
yoo
1 year ago

– The only safe finalist are Sweden and Finland — Czechia is my favorite but live performance could be a disaster
– Norway/Israel song and performance are tipical esc song/performance and maybe the viewers will be fed up with such performances
– Ireland and Azerbaijan are perhaps the weakest of all, but nothing is impossible if the performance is excellent

Reverb
Reverb
1 year ago

I think this “loreen is Mans” and “Kaarija is Netta” scenario is a bit too first obvious. To me this looks a lot like a 2019 case. Two hot faves performing high overall, finishing first and second but other acts might still the televote and jury score.

Sos
Sos
1 year ago

my top (semi 1)

  1. Czechia
  2. Sweden
  3. Norway
  4. Moldova
  5. Ireland
  6. Finland
  7. Portugal
  8. Serbia
  9. Switzerland
  10. Israel
Anonymous91
Anonymous91
1 year ago
Reply to  Sos

my top (semi 1) predictions Finland Sweden Norway Serbia Moldova Czechia Croatia Israel Latvia (i’m just reading more positivity for them than some of the other borderliner acts) Portugal (yes i think they could just scrape through, there is an audience for this at the very least, a more like portuguese caro emerald/cabaret type act) Malta (like i said borderline q/nq for me) Ireland Azerbaijan Netherlands (not having much hopes myself for us this year although i cannot complain as we have had a good quali streak, maybe a return of the NF next year for some refreshing of our… Read more »