Do YouTube views predict a win for Polina Garagina? (May 2nd)

Sweden’s Måns Zelmerlöw, Italy’s Il Volo and Australia’s Guy Sebastian may be the bookies’ favourites to win Eurovision 2015, but when it comes to YouTube views Russia’s Polina Gagarina comes out on top. She’s racked up an impressive 3.5 million views on the official YouTube channel. Does this indicate a win for Russia? That’s hard to predict as there are several limiting factors to using YouTube views as an indicator (we outline some of these below). Last year Aram MP3 had the most views ahead of the contest, but ultimately finished fourth. Conchita Wurst was second — and she went on to win.

You can take a look at all the views of the competitors. Countries are ranked here on the basis of their video with the most views on only. This means no VEVO or uploads by other people.

Please note: This information is correct as of 14:00 BST on Saturday, 2 May, 2015.

Eurovision stars ranked by Eurovision views

1. Russia: 3,544,377 views
2. Albania: 2,453,315 views
3. Azerbaijan: 1,843,427 views
4. United Kingdom: 1,639,652 views
5. Armenia: 1,334,382 views
6. Estonia : 1,043,774 views
7. Australia: 1,003,174 views
8. Belgium: 957,089 views
9. Georgia: 952,977 views
10. Spain: 861,698 views
11. Italy: 825,947 views
12. Israel: 815,209 views
13. Belarus: 784,942 views
14. FYR Macedonia: 711,882 views
15. Iceland: 665,768 views
16. Montenegro: 639,141 views
17. Norway: 569,502 views
18. Malta: 526,547 views
19. Moldova: 508,377 views
20. Germany: 505,184 views
21. Austria: 501,477 views
22. Slovenia: 474,210 views
23. Serbia: 444,608 views
24. Netherlands: 425,870 views
25. Czech Republic: 369,210 views
26. Greece: 351,939 views
27. Lithuania: 351,465 views
28. Sweden: 350,421 views
29. Romania: 339,576 views
30. France: 306,254 views
31. Finland: 298,210 views
32. Latvia: 279,269 views
33. Switzerland: 252,672 views
34. Hungary: 252,260 views
35. San Marino: 234,350 views
36. Denmark: 220,697 views
37. Poland: 215,906 views
38. Cyprus: 208,758 views
39. Portugal: 203,527 views
40. Ireland: 201,339 views

Obvious Limitations

Different YouTube videos were uploaded at different times. Videos uploaded earlier have had a longer time to clock up views. Some contestants also upload their YouTube video to their personal YouTube channel, which may have more or less views than the official views.

Currently, seven countries (Russia, Albania, Azerbaijan, United Kingdom, Armenia, Estonia and Australia) have more than one million views. However, we cannot be certain how many of these views come from outside their own respective countries.

Albania is sitting in second place, with over one million less views than Polina. That’s very respectable — especially when you consider how much smaller Albania’s population is than Russia’s (2.7 million vs. 144 million).

Favourite Mans Zelmerlow sits in 28th position, but as you’ll recall his official video was yanked following a copyright warning over his stick figure. He had to start over at zero. Finland, another favourite, is not even in the top 30 in views.

Sitting in last place at the moment is Ireland’s Molly Sterling, more than two thousand views behind next to last Leonar Andrade.

We will update the standings in the coming weeks. Do you think that a country should have more or less views than it has? Tell us why in the comments section!