The running order for the first and second Eurovision semi-finals have been revealed today, and the stats-obsessed fans among you will no doubt have been crunching the numbers about who the running order favours and hurts. We here at wiwibloggs have been hard at work too and we have bad news for y’all who are supporting Belgium and San Marino…
That’s because ever since the start of the jury-televote split in 2009, the semi finals have only seen three out of twelve entries qualify from third in the running order – a dismal 25%, the worst percentage of any slot. Only Harel Skaat in 2010, Eleftheria Eleftheriou in 2012 and Carl Espen in 2014 have managed to qualify from the position, whilst fan favourites like Joan Franka and Tanja have fallen by the wayside.
It doesn’t make great reading then if you are a fan of Michele & Anita or Loïc Nottet, but bear in mind that these are only the past stats and it doesn’t take in to account many other factors like diaspora voting which could either help or further hinder San Marino and Belgium. It’s also vital to point out that the introduction of Australia is going to be a true wildcard in the voting this year.
From the doom and gloom of that scenario though to something a little more positive: it’s good news if you’re fans of Elhaida Dani, Mélanie René or Monika Kuszynska. These three ladies have all been given (statistically) the best chance of qualifying – Elhaida and Mélanie sing from position fourteen, which has delivered qualifiers every year apart from 2013 (where Despina and Takasa both failed to qualify) since 2009. In the same time period, 17th in the running order has qualified with one exception: Lativa’s Musiqq in the second semi final of 2011. Similarly, the last act to perform on stage in the semi finals has always qualified, bar Moje 3 in 2013.
Finally, Semi Final One produces an interesting issue with Armenia, Belgium, Netherlands, Finland, Greece and Estonia all “likely” qualifiers for one reason or another. Only in the second semi final of 2009 have six (or more) countries in a row qualified, which means that it is very possible that one of these six songs will not make it to the final. If this further bad news for Belgium, or will some Eurovision fans be breathing a sigh of relief that Finland could fall by the wayside?
What do you think about these facts and figures then – do you think that the stats really do hold true or will we be in for a shock? Let us know in the comments or on our Facebook and Twitter!
@Max H
I’ve seen the Belgian Guy live on youtube, its wow !!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9B3a7A7tbk
The majority of countries started to present meaningful songs, and that’s a very great change in this year’s Eurovision!
Follow the latest Eurovision news and exclusives on https://www.facebook.com/pages/Eurovision-Austria
Alex, if we assume that the juries are going to wipe out Israel’s televote at #9, then what songs from the opening nine are going to finish ahead of Ireland at #2 and prevent them from qualifying? The Wiwibloggs panel seem to be suggesting that seven or even eight of the last nine songs in the running order will qualify. That’s completely bonkers, especially with 50% jury involvement and even televoters are not going to vote for no other reason than that songs are drawn late. Sure, the running order can affect how the televote can go, but not to… Read more »
@PP: Good memory, and not a great choice by Poland there. Bulgaria also seems to have made bad choices with wildcards in the past. And Spain got awfully lucky with how often they got wildcards.
Moje 3 were not the only ones not to qualify from the last position in the semi, unless you only count the semis from 2010 – The Toppers (NL 2009) also managed to fail out from that position. Going back to the televoting era, so did Ivan and Delfin (PL 2005) and Silvia Night (IS 2006). #3 is really, really bad news. That position has brought in a grand total of four qualifiers since the semis were introduced in 2004. Belgium, I think, will still manage, but San Marino were doubtful in the first place, and getting the worst possible… Read more »
I did an article a couple weeks back about this… If you look at the coefficient of correlation, it’s very close to 0 which basically means that the running order doesn’t have a huge effect. But I could be wrong, let’s see…
Lithuania opening the semifinal is great for them. Bad news for Ireland and Armenia though, #2 is a bad running order (see San marini 2013, Israel 2014 etc)
The Netherlands performing after Belgium is not great either.
Poland performing last increases the chances to qualify.
Can’t believe the Wiwi panel are all calling Ireland a certain non qualifer in their latest video and even predicting that only two or perhaps three songs at most will qualify from the opening eight songs in the running order.
Have you guys gone nuts and forgotten that juries are voting? Five of the opening eight songs qualified last year in both semis (yes 50% in other words) and it was 5 + 4 in 2013. Ireland has a load of voting allies in this semi as does Lithuania, another song that you guys have completely written off.
Oh, I keep fingers crossed for Lithuanua (my country). Yeah, it’s a good song to open the semi, but not a perfect position for qualifying. Still hope that their energy will knock down other ballads 🙂
Belgium is so unique this year (in terms of Eurovision of course) that it should qualify easily. Eurovision needs desperately some fresh air in order to develop itself musically. Last year it was accomplished due to the Netherlands. Now, it is Belgium’s turn!
I am really surprised you think the Netherlands is a ‘likely qualifier’, as a Dutch guy i am really afraid we won’t make it, performing before Finland can be a killer for us. Also have to be said that ‘Walk Along’ is the only uptempo/catchy song at the first 8 songs. It will be very very hard and it wouldn’t suprise me if the difference between number 10 and number 11 will be 1 point or even a tie(with the country who got votes for most countries will go through). I really hope Trijntje will qualify, but it will be… Read more »
In 2011 we couldn t listen commentators from brodcast company in host city, when some countries sang their song . In my country we listen commentator from our city not from Dusseldorf after maybe 7 or 8 countries we could listen commentators from host city because had some tehnical problem in Germany.
Robyn Gallagher & Huh
Poland choosen to sang first in semifinal in 2011 not draw. They could choosen to sang from 1 to 8 or 9 place and TVP thought that best to sing first in order. In that year two countries in semifinal got opportunity to choosen when they want to sing one for first half, one for second half , after all countries in semifinal draw order of appearance., same as host country.
I do fear for San Marino as I really want them to qualify however please do not forget 2008. Turkey qualified in the second semi final!
I don’t think noone of this song is good so doesn’t matter with start number they have had
@Robyn: If I recall correctly, people reported having problems with early televoting in the 1st semifinal in 2011, or at least there were rumors. It certainly makes it easier for me to believe what happened there (pre-contest favorite Norway and the perennial qualifier Turkey failing to get enough televotes to push them into the finals). That being said, Poland’s live performance that year was not great.
I actually thought that Poland’s placing in the second semi final was EBU’s response to them for their unfortunate semi final placing in the 2011 contest.
To be fair, Belgium and San Marino were unlikely to do well in the first case because both songs just aren’t that interesting. Ireland could have qualified if it were surrounded by even slower (some might say dull) songs like Cyprus and Poland, or even Latvia.
In its position, the Netherlands might actually qualify now, and maybe even Serbia.
Moldova starting may seem like a poor decision because it isn’t a good song or performance, but at least it gets the song over and done with rather than have it popping up later and ruining the show.
My prediction for first semifinal
2.Armenia
3.Belgium
6.Greece
7.Estonia
9.Serbia
11.Belarus
12.Russia
14.Albania
15.Romania
16.Georgia
II Semi final
1.Lithuania
5.Malta
6.Norway
8.Czech Republic
9.Israel
11.Azerbaijan
12.Iceland
13.Sweden
16.Slovenia
17.Poland
Apparently things look very bad for Russia/Polina Gagarina as well. She’s 1m78 tall, and there are only 2 singers with the same height who qualified in the history of the semi-finals (Eleftheria Eleftheriou and Jedward). On the other hand, the Netherlands/Trijntje is 1m84, which gives her a decisive hedge on the other contestants… You think these stats are ridiculous? Me too.
Interesting. I’m also shocked that MOLDOVA will open semi 1.
Something haven’t picked up: it is also imortant to see which song is before and after. This give good chances for LATVIA (powerful ballad after a typical uptempo song) and GREECE (female between male artists. Plus, after Finns withoit knowing their background, the Greek lady may appear as very professional).
John
I think ORF and EBU want to see Czech Republic and Poland in final, they fixed good draw for that countries.Czech could sing from 1 to 8 and they got 8 positiion, and Poland could sing from spot 9 to 17 and they got to sing last in semifinal.
Poland have UK, Ireland to vote for them ( huge diaspora) plus neighbours Germany,Litnuania, Czech Republic and Latvia wili also vote for Poland.
My prediction of who will qualify(stand out) from semi 1 : 5-Finland (they will make it cause the song is last performed before breakup when people will talk for it saying this is inspiring and really it is ..just the song is bad) 6-Greece(the first ballad after breakup ,a powerful performace could make viewers emotional) 7-Estonia(a sweet song in duet..people will love it) 11-Belarus(it will stand out cz is in the middle of two slow ballads) 12-Russia(the last song performed before the breakup about peace and love by Russia !! will definetely make an impact to viewers… 14-Albania(Elhaida will stand… Read more »
Netherlands wont qualify. It’s pretty much a fact, unless she does some amazing performance or something, it’s got no chance. Belgium only qualifies if they send a good song, no matter what the performer is (e.g. Axel was a really good performer, but the song was about his mother, same with Witloof Bay in 2011). San Marino was a one-off last year because it was Valentina. Greater than 15th in the semi would be an acomplishment. Monika probably wont qualify, too dull of a song and the wheelchair stuff just doesn’t present the same excitement and isn’t as inspirational. As… Read more »
San Marino have chance only if public and juries vote for simpaty for two younger singers from one of smalles country in Europe and World.
Interesting that we have ballad to close second semifinal. In 2013 and 2014 producer try to open and close semifinal with umtempo song not ballad.
In First semifinal good draw by producer for Estonia (first half), on second half ( Georgia, Albania, Romania and suprise Russia) Not good draw by producer in first half of first semifinal for Armenia,Belgium in second half for Serbia (Serbia in draw can sing from 9 to 16 place ). In Second semifinal good draw by producer for Portugal and Czech Republic (in first half), in second half of second semi final good draw for Poland, Cyprus and Slovenia Not good draw for second semifinal in first half for Ireland, Lithuania, San Marino and Montenegro , and not good draw… Read more »
I mean: shocker Armenia or Greece
I think even Armenia will struggle to pass. They have the diaspora, but I think lots of the juries will place this in one of the last spots.
Non qualifiers:
Moldova
Hungary
Finland
Serbia
Denmark
Belarus (or shocker Armenia or
I don’t think San Marino had any hope of qualifying in the first place.
But for Belgium…yeah I’m a little worried. The song is great and I’d consider a definite sure-in to qualify, but performing 3rd is so bad…I just have the worst feeling that Finland will qualify at the expense of a song thats actually good, and that song will be Belgium. The only positive is that Belgium stands out this year – and though it might not be the best song in the competition – it should hopefully get enough votes
Belgium have chance to go to final, but I think that favorite number 5 for win the contest Finland wili stay in semifinal, like favorites on betting odds with great odds for win, Montenegro 2009, Sweden and Croatian 2010, Norway 2011
Lithuania will still qualify (knock on wood) – it’s basically followed by 7 ballad or low-energy songs so I can’t imagine This Time will have trouble sticking out. Yes, San Marino is screwed, but they were screwed to begin with! Belgium is not any more screwed than usual – remember, it’s Belgium, so running order would likely do little to help or hurt them anyway. I think their song is strong enough for them to pull through. People who don’t think the Netherlands is a likely qualifier have forgotten about the jury, who will probably go nuts for a singer… Read more »
Greece and Finland won’t make it. Of course The Netherlands will go through. The only cheer up happy song of the whole evening.
I think Belgium will pass, but it has to be good live (and I doubt that).
I’m confident Loic will make it. If anyone has to take the brunt of the fall, it’s gonna be The Netherlands. San Marino never had a chance anyway, the running order merely confirms it.
Belgium must be in the final! Denmark and Finland shouldn’t be in the Final! Also hope The Netherlands will qualify! Their song is in my mind since December and I really like this song! Australia, Austria, France and Spain must save the west countries because of the big bloc voting in this Semi-Final!
Portugal go to the final <3
Finland and the Netherlands aren’t really “likely qualifiers”, they will hardly have any chance to reach the final.
Belgium should not face any difficulties.
If San Marino (with Valentina) didn’t qualify twice and even struggled last year, they will NOT go to the final with this crap (sorry).
Moldova in first position is a bad choice, but it doesn’t affect their chances. They won’t make it.
It’s the song that means bad news for San Marino.
Belgium better qualify, they must be in the final!
Don’t think the Netherlands is a “likely qualifier”. Let’s not forget that they hold the record for longest consecutive non-qualifications. Just because the past two years were good for them doesn’t mean this year will be too. I don’t think they will qualify but if they do it won’t be higher than in 8th place. Also, San Marino had no chance of qualifying anyways. Their song is horrible and extremely outdated, not to mention that also they’re San Marino and San Marino will always have an extremely difficult time qualifying. I can’t see Belgium facing any serious challenges due to… Read more »
Check out SEMI FINAL 1 TOP 10 which is based on votes from youtube videos and comments!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2j9Ons9BytA&gl=LV&client=mv-google&hl=en
SEMI FINAL 2 COMING SOON!
Don’t forget The Netherlands 2009(when it comes to the number of 17). And Where are the Wiwi junior awards 2 and 6.
I agree with @marklebron! While I want The Netherlands to qualify, I think they’ll take the brunt of the block voting.
Georgia my favourite
I’m sorry but whoever drafted the opening of the first semi-final is a complete moron unless of course it becomes quite obvious that they are “anti-eastern European”. Moldova opening? It’s not an appropriate song to open the show. The song is gonna go down and it’s gonna take Armenia with it. Armenia should have been the last country to perform before they went into a break because it has a very theatrical/opera like ending. Having it as the second act makes no sense. And then you have Belgium a completely different sound than the first and the second acts. It… Read more »
for San Marino – YES. For Belgium – who knows? I hope not…?
I think it will be finland or us… Belgium has to qualify, in second i hope ireland will make the cut but hopefully switzerland not that would be a waste of space in the final
I think Netherlands will pay the consecuences.