The first semi-final of Eurovision is just two weeks away, and betting agencies are tweaking their Eurovision odds and favourites as the big day draws nearer.

Sweden’s Sanna Nielsen continues to move in on Armenia’s Aram Mp3. When we last checked on April 5, Sanna was sitting in second place at PaddyPower with odds of 3/1, and Aram was ahead at 2/5. Aram’s odds have not changed, but Sanna has narrowed to 5/2—a pattern similar to what we’ve seen with the grand final odds. Perhaps releasing footage of her music video shoot helped?

Hungary and Azerbaijan continue to sit side-by-side—and not just on the sofa of morning chat shows in Budapest. On April 5 the two were tied with the bookies as third-favourite with odds of 6/1. By April 21 the two were still in joint third, but their odds had widened to 7/1. Kallay-Saunders has now uploaded the footage of his cover of Dilara’s “Start a Fire”, connecting these two even more. Best friends forever?

Odds to Win the First Semifinal

Armenia 2/5
Sweden 5/2
Hungary 7
Azerbaijan 7
Ukraine 8
Belgium 12
Russia 12
Estonia 20
Moldova 80
Montenegro 100
Netherlands 100
Albania 100
Iceland 100
Latvia 100
Portugal 200
San Marino 200

Winning isn’t everything, so the bookies have also updated their odds for who will qualify for the grand final from the first semi. At the moment the bookies predict that Armenia, Sweden, Azerbaijan, Hungary, Russia, Ukraine, and Belgium will have no trouble reaching the final. Estonia, Moldova and Montenegro are also seen as likely to advance.

The bookies believe that the Netherlands, Iceland, Albania, Latvia, San Marino and Portugal will struggle to make the final. This breaks our heart, as we love a lot of them.

Odds to Qualify from the First Semifinal

Armenia 1/250
Sweden 1/100
Azerbaijan 1/50
Hungary 1/25
Russia 1/16
Ukraine 1/16
Belgium 1/10
Estonia 1/4
Moldova 2/5
Montenegro 8/15
Netherlands 4/7
Iceland 10/11
Albania 6/5
Latvia 7/4
San Marino 7/4
Portugal 9/4

It’s interesting to look at this in light of the various polls on wiwibloggs. Armenia is dominating each of them. But Azerbaijan is challenging. Dilara has emerged as a favourite not only to advance, but also to win the entire competition. Sweden is currently third in our poll to win the first semi-final, but only 10th in our poll to win the grand final.

You can listen to all 37 of this year’s Eurovision acts on our contestants page. You can also read our latest reviews and see our latest rankings on the Wiwi Jury page.

Colin Lamb contributed this report from Alaska. You can keep up-to-date on the latest Eurovision news and gossip by following the team on Twitter @wiwibloggs and by liking our Facebook page.

65 Comments
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Armenian guy
Armenian guy
6 years ago

Dear @Haters ,please control your mouths : ) I do not care who will win .I of course support my country but I support UK as well + Norway .So for me does not matter whether it will be UK 2015 , Armenia 2015 , Norway 2015, Moon 2015 ,Mars 2015 or whatever …

Let’s just have fun .Do not call people “spoiled children” just because they support their country .Do the same for your country or STFU ; ) Thank you !

Jordan
Jordan
6 years ago

Note: This is no particular order. I’m just saying who will most likely qualify to the Grand Final.

SF1
Armenia
Estonia
Sweden
Iceland
Azerbaijan
Ukraine
Belgium
San Marino
Montenegro
Hungary

Personal Thoughts?

I doubt Latvia, Albania, Russia, Moldova, Portugal and The Netherlands will get much votes. I will be genuinely surprised if Portugal and The Netherlands qualified to the Grand Final. Russia isn’t really a favourite at the moment, considering their political situation, but I will be very surprised if Russia qualifies.

CookyMonzta
CookyMonzta
6 years ago

My second evaluation now complete. After reviewing the studio tracks and videos, my 1st round top 10 now looks like this:

1. Hungary
2. Armenia
3. Sweden
4. Azerbaijan
5. Montenegro
6. Belgium
7. San Marino
8. Moldova
9. Estonia
10. Iceland
[Estonia in, Netherlands out]

Yuri
Yuri
6 years ago

ARMENIAAAAAAA YOU ARE BEST, MP3 ARAM GO ARMENIAAAAAAA. .:)?

Armenia
Armenia
6 years ago

Katrina (Sweden)

För fan skärp dig en vuxen människa som beter sig som en jävla barn.

from Armenia
6 years ago

ARMENIA WIN THIS YEAR

Alex
Alex
6 years ago

Odds for Estonia and Moldova seem a bit high, to be honest… with Iceland way too low.

Musicritique
Musicritique
6 years ago

I have been watching the ESC for so many years and since I have taken many years of vocal lessons from professionals, I think I have the right to share my honest opinion with you all regarding these top 4 participants. 1. Sweden … Interesting song, good arrangement of the music, clever pause in the middle of the song, which grabs the listeners’ attention. However, in many ( if not all) of her performances Sanna is really OUT OF TUNE. If you’re an experienced singer or a vocalist, you can see how nervous she feels with her high and also… Read more »

Lollily
Lollily
6 years ago

Everyone remember this …
Azerbaijan or Ireland will Not have a place in the top 5 this year. The top 5 will be in
Alphabetical order
1. Armenia
2. Hungary
3. Sweden
4. UK
5. And maybe Ukraine or Denmark

Lollily
Lollily
6 years ago

@This is My Opinion Why are you still full of sooooo much hatred towards the Armenian entry? You’re not getting tired? Nobody cares for your opinion. How old are you? 12? You’re not giving any other reasons besides that the song is repetitive and that it’s a poem and Aram is screaming…. Many eurovision entries have won in the past with those same “flaws” as you’re describing. For ex. Finland’s monsters. Very ordinary song it was, with horrible music. Maybe you should make a video like this, since you are soo determined to bash Aram’s song. Watch this video on… Read more »

Tha
Tha
6 years ago

I wanna see those countries on the Final: Montenegro, The Netherlands, Hungary, Estonia, Armenia, Sweden, San Marino, Belgium, Ukraine and Portugal.

Lollily
Lollily
6 years ago

@bavarson
Nostradamus? Or are you working for the KGB? You’re very childish with your comment.

R
R
6 years ago

Oh Armenia and Azerbaijan. Let’s learn to get along now shall we?

bavarson
bavarson
6 years ago

Aram Mp3 was hired by the Russians to divert attention from the brilliant entry of Ukraine. Vote for Ukraine. Young pretty girl with catchy song. She fits on the winner. If you do not vote for Ukraine, Russia win.?

Kuku
Kuku
6 years ago

ARMENIAAAAAAA. …

Yuri
Yuri
6 years ago

ARMENIAAAAAAA love you and The song.

Hreshtak
Hreshtak
6 years ago

ARAM mp3 YOU ARE WINNERS

karen
karen
6 years ago

ARMENIAAAAAAA. .. YOU ARE BEST ?

Armenia
Armenia
6 years ago

Javid

AZERBAIJAN AND TURKEY can go to hell, for this year, Armenia going to win. And they can stay in their home country, they do not need to come to Armenia !!!!!!!!

Marias Gustavsson
Marias Gustavsson
6 years ago

My top 3

1. ARMENIAAAAAAA
2. ARMENIAAAAAAA
3. ARMENIAAAAAAA

Erik Nilsson
Erik Nilsson
6 years ago

I did like Aram mp3 , Armenia is real good 🙂

oto
oto
6 years ago

THIS ODDS ARE CRAPPY!!
IN 2012 those odds put Albania down on the list and no one ever would imagine that it would make to top 5 in final,but it did.

Besides,it peaked higher than the favorites (Greece and Cyprus)

thanks,Oto – Esc’s 2012 analyst

Jasmine
Jasmine
6 years ago

@bavarson

I’m so tired of your copy-paste-prediction. If you’re right, I’ll never watch Eurovision again. Ever. And .. I’ll eat my favorite snapback.

I’ve got nothing to worry about, though, ’cause it’s such a completely random prediction. I’m not saying that Hungary, Armenia, Spain or Sweden will win, but I’m pretty sure atleast half of them will be in the top 10 along with the UK.

MK
MK
6 years ago

Which odds are you checking? For days Netherlands is in the top 10 on oddchecker. As well for qualification as for winner. Moldova is on the 11th and 12th place.

William Lee Adams
Admin
6 years ago

I think all of the countries in the top six have a chance of winning this semi-final. It’s exciting!

Niki
6 years ago

my top 3
1,Armenia
2,Germany
3,Gruzia

Gayushikkkk
Gayushikkkk
6 years ago

ARMENIAAAAAAA IS bestttt

Armenia
Armenia
6 years ago

ARAM MP3 IS BEST ?

lilit
lilit
6 years ago

Armenia aaaaaaa

Colin
Colin
6 years ago

Thanks for reading this post! The second semifinal is coming soon!

davve
davve
6 years ago

Will be so fun when both nationalistic Armenians and Azeris sees themselves in lower places while Sweden wins!!

Armenians and Azeris on this site behaves like spoiled kindergarten kids. For that I hope Sweden wins…..

davve
davve
6 years ago

I hope Sweden wins! sanna has amazing stage presence…sorry dudes but aram is dreadful on stage…. his performances of this song so far has not been impressive what so ever..

Sweden to win!

Armenian guy
Armenian guy
6 years ago

Armenia ,UK,Sweden ,Hungry will definitely be in top 4 .With different order.
Then again with different order in top 10 we will have Ukraine , Azerbaijan ,Russia ,Austria ,if Montenegro be in final then also Montenegro , Italy/Israel.

Armenian guy
Armenian guy
6 years ago

@Fatima Dilara does not represent my country but the way you talk about her English abilities,is not fair.You know what’s funny to me ? That British people do not even mind about other singers’ accent ,while other people who are clearly not British or even whose first language is not English, try to convince that singers’ accent is sooo horrible that they do not even understand after listening 21th time. If I were you ,after 2nd time I would read lyrics 😉 🙂 Good luck .Peace out .

Edmon
6 years ago

Aram mp3 Not alone(Armenia)

Giorgos
6 years ago

I believe that Azerbaijan has better song than Armenia. I think Azerbaijan will finish 2nd-5th and Armenia 6th-13th. I don’t wanna this song win

Syuzka
6 years ago

Aram mp3_not alone(Armenia)

SJ
SJ
6 years ago

Armenia won t win

Garcia Marquez
Garcia Marquez
6 years ago

Go #AramMp3

Fatima
Fatima
6 years ago

bavarson, what is your prediction now ? Russia first ?

Farid Ibragimov
Farid Ibragimov
6 years ago

Gooooo Aram MP3 *Goooooo Armenia ……..Yerevan 2015

LikA
LikA
6 years ago

Gooooo Aram MP3 *_*

ello
ello
6 years ago

@TIMO, in all fairness we kept saying the same thing about denmark last year, and still won.

Timselvision
Timselvision
6 years ago

Bavarson: we all know your prediction, so please stop spamming that Russia’s gonna win. 🙂

This is my opinion (TIMO)
This is my opinion (TIMO)
6 years ago

Armenia would probably qulify but it is SO overrated, but it won’t win, sorry not that repetative shouting and boring not alone with no real harmony, its like trying to put blood into stone, yes its poem but it is ruined with that music and Aram’s shouting, say no more Aram

Timselvision
Timselvision
6 years ago

The Netherlands in the final and Armenia for the win!

bavarson
bavarson
6 years ago

This is just my prediction. Each may have its own prediction.

bavarson
bavarson
6 years ago

Many eurovision fans are prudish and dull. I think of Eurovision 24 hours a day.
FINAL TOP 10 PREDICTION:
1. Russia
2. Ukraine
3. Estonia
4. Ireland
5. Romania
6. Finland
7. Denmark
8. Azerbaijan
9. United Kingdom
10. Lithuania

Fatima
Fatima
6 years ago

Armenian guy, it is possible to enjoy the lyrics even when you don’t understand the words. Italy and Montenegro sound fantastic to me this year. But when you hear someone trying to sing in English, it’s not so enjoyable if you can’t make out the words. I would say that about some English singers too. Anyway, I’m now onto my 21st listen of Dilara so perhaps I’ll work out the words before having to google the lyrics.

Armenian guy
Armenian guy
6 years ago

@Fatima if they had sung in their native language you would not have understood anyways , instead you would have enjoyed music 😉 .So now too ,just enjoy the music. If you want to understand just read lyrics ,songs are in English so you will definitely understand lyrics if you read them.