The semi-final allocation draw for Eurovision 2015 only took place yesterday, and so far only a handful of countries have chosen their songs. But that’s not stopping betting experts from publishing their odds for who will win Eurovision 2015.

UK-based betting agency Betfred has Estonia down as as the pre-contest favourite. We can understand why. “Goodbye To Yesterday” from Elina Born & Stig Rästa has emerged as a fan favourite (and a favourite of Team Wiwi) to win this year’s Eesti Laul national final. They’ve also stormed into the lead in our ongoing poll.

Sidenote: Estonia will once again perform in the first half of the First Semi-Final, the same segment where Tanja crashed out last year. Thankfully we’re not superstitious!

Early favourites: Elina Born & Stig Rästa

Can Finland win Eurovision 2015?

Just behind Estonia is Finland, where state broadcaster YLE has really upped its game with UMK this year. Perhaps the bookies agree with the current standings of our poll, which has The Voice of Finland winner Siru fighting it out with Satin Circus. Again: Our panel of musical un-professionals absolutely loves both of these songs.

The other countries favoured by the bookes are rather predicitable. Sweden, a perrennial Eurovision powerhouse, is unsurprisingly listed at third…despite the fact that none of the 28 participants of this year’s Melodifestivalen have been revealed.

You can see the rest of the odds below, courtesy of Oddschecker.

Eurovision 2015 Winner | Betfred Odds (26 January)

Estonia 7

Finland 10

Sweden 10

Azerbaijan 10

Greece 10

Norway 14

Armenia 14

Serbia 14

Denmark 16

Italy 20

Romania 25

Iceland 25

Czech Republic 25

Cyprus 25

Germany 25

Russia 25

Hungary 33

Poland 33

Malta 33

Austria 33

Lithuania 33

Latvia 33

The Netherlands 33

Israel 33

Georgia 33

Moldova 33

Montenegro 33

Spain 40

United Kingdom 40

Ireland 40

Belgium 40

Slovenia 40

France 40

Switzerland 50

Belarus 50

San Marin0 66

Portugal 80

F.Y.R. Macedonia 80

Albania 100

Can we trust the early Eurovision 2015 odds?

newest oldest most voted
Notify of
Huh
Guest
Huh

No love for Slovenia???

Lars Olsen
Guest
Lars Olsen

Mustelmat with Siru needs to win !!! The best song ever from Finland, if it wins!!!! I love it that much!

Paul
Guest

Why Estonia? I think Norway with Erlend Bratland “Thunderstruck” can win.

Crete
Guest
Crete

Elina Born – Miss Calculation

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxyLimYtxoU

Charles
Guest
Charles

While Estonia tries too hard to follow on the footsteps of folk-indie brought to us last years by the Netherlands, with a less interesting song, but nonetheless catchy and with a nice chorus, as a whole it’s not a wow musical moment. When I heard Siru’s entry I was blown away, stunning composition loved it a lot. Even if this never gets to represent Finland in Eurovision, the simple fact that it exists as a song just makes me happy. Anyway .. it’s too damn soon to start playing these games! It all looks like a desperate attempt to know… Read more »

LucyEAPercy
Guest

Good, Goodbye To Yesterday is utterly fantastic.

However, I find it genuinely incredible that Montenegro is ranked higher than The UK, is it cos last year we genuinely sent an amazing song yet still came 17th, so basically the bookies think that would continue? Cos I think if we keep sending songs like Children Of The Universe, we’ll end up getting more respect for sending great songs, and will win eventually.

Rob
Guest

It’s obviously very early in terms of the Eurovision Outright betting market. Each year the market has to find a favourite & this year it’s Estonia, understandably in my view. Early favourites sometimes win & sometimes do not. Both Sweden 2012 & Denmark 2013 were strong early favourites & went on to win. Like William says, Austria was a huge price last year early on, as was The Netherlands. I am probably in the minority here in wishing The Common Linnets had won, but from an entirely selfish financial perspective, having initially backed them at 250-1 e/w & an even… Read more »

ESContest
Guest
ESContest

Goodbye to Yesterday is repetitive but not bad.

R
Guest
R

I love Estonia… but that Goodbye song is awful. The lyrics alone are woeful.

Alex
Guest
Alex

This is pretty meaningless so early in the game…

Robyn Gallagher
Editor

Something else to consider – most online betting places are from the UK, so the bettors tend to also be from the UK and so their betting reflects their cultural biases – that’s why the UK contestant always seems like a favourite.

Fatima
Guest
Fatima

Liam
JAN 27, 2015 @ 16:26:48
You wrote Russia twice and left out Malta ..

Russian cheating already

Melissa J
Guest

I think it’s a little early to be making such predictions. A lot of these countries haven’t even revealed what songs will compete in their national finals (if they have them)! Personally, I wasn’t really impressed with anything in Eesti Laul this year, but that could be because of the overload of amazing songs from A Dal and UMK. Like “Calm after the Storm” last year, an overlooked song early in the season could knock a home run when it comes time to perform in Vienna.

Daniel
Guest
Daniel

NO! Their songs are AWFUL!
But whatever…I have a gut feeling that the Netherlands or Norway will win this year

MTD
Guest
MTD

Belarus, San Marino, Portugal, Macedonia & Albania. The 5 countries that always share the bottom in these odds, every year. It’s really sad. They aren’t appreciated no matter what they’ll send. 🙂

Diane
Guest
Diane

Why everyone keeps saying that “Goodbye to Yesterday” should represent Estonia? I think “Unriddle Me” is far better.

Peyton
Guest
Peyton

I think Estonia could win if they send Goodbye to Yesterday. Definitely my favorite song from their selection

bavarson
Guest
bavarson

Estonia is not a candidate for 1st place

Siggy
Guest
Siggy

I think we should first hear the songs that represent the respective countries before we place a bet. Last year UK was considered a high favourite within the betting and look how that turned out

Liam
Guest
Liam

You wrote Russia twice and left out Malta ..

William Lee Adams
Admin

Betting early is often smart, even if it’s a wild bet. I have a friend who put £10 on Conchita before her song came out last year. She was way down at 60:1 at that point, so he walked away with £600!!

Thiefo
Guest

Forgot to say that it will be interesting to go back in May, after Eurovision ended and compare the results with this, the first prediction 😛 and see how many coincidences there are and what countries they predicted so wrong hah!

Thiefo
Guest

Well, the betting agencies are like weather forecasters, they often get it very, very wrong, but it’s always interesting to see these early predictions.
If Elina & Stig do indeed win Eesti Laul I wouldn’t mind Estonia getting a good place, because I love Goodbye to yesterday! Hoping to see Estonia back in the final this year. But about Finland, I’m not a big fan of Siru, I would prefer Satin Circus or Eeverest in any case.

jr esc nl
Guest
jr esc nl

It,s weird that spain is placed so low

Mimi
Guest
Mimi

I hope “Goodbye To Yesterday” and “Mustelmat” lose.

Hannes
Guest

Why would you even bet your money this early? 😛 Although i agree that both Estonia and Finland has very strong songs this year, “Mustelmat” and Goodbye to Yesterday” are my personal favorites to, when it comes to their national selections.

John
Guest
John

What about Malta?

Giorgios
Guest

Estonia will win Eurovision only with Goodbye to Yesterday

D
Guest
D

I don’t understand how Finland can be such a heavy favourite. Currently, the big favourite to win in Finland by betting agencies is Pertti Kurikan Nimipäivät, who we all know would never be able to win Eurovision. Maybe if Siru, Satin Circus, or Eeverest wins they could challenge for the crown, but I can’t see ESC going to Helsinki next year. Estonia I can understand, and I would love to be able to visit Tallinn (one of my favourite cities in the world) in 2016. I’m not as big of a fan of “Goodbye to Yesterday” as everyone else is,… Read more »