It’s one of the biggest and most popular national selections in the run-up to the Eurovision Song Contest. And after last weekend’s Andra Chansen we now know all twelve finalists of Melodifestivalen 2021. On Saturday, March 13 Sweden will decide who will bring home the trophy and represent their country in Rotterdam.
Melodifestivalen 2021: Tusse and “Voices” is the favourite to win – as of 8 March
Swedish betting site Svenska Spel currently lists Tusse as the clear favourite to win with odds of 1.68, a position he has kept since he performed in semi-final three.
This is the first time Tusse is competing in Melodifestivalen. He’s a familiar face to the public: In 2019 he won Swedish Idol. His song “Voices” is written by Melodifestivalen veterans Joy Deb, Linnea Deb, Jimmy “Joker” Thörnfeldt and Anderz Wrethov. Joy and Linnea previously worked together on many successful Mello entries including Måns Zelmerlöw’s “Heroes” — the Eurovision 2015 winner. Meanwhile, Anderz is one of the songwriters behind Melodifestivalen champion John Lundvik’s winning track “Too Late For Love”, which placed sixth at Eurovision 2019. As well, Thörnfeldt appears as a songwriter on five Melfest 2021 songs — including Eric Saade’s “Every Minute”.
Second to win according to the bookmakers is Eric Saade and “Every Minute” — with odds of 4.55. Eric Saade is a name Eurovision fans know and love. In 2011 he placed third at ESC with “Popular”.
Last year’s runner-up Dotter is in third with “Little Tot” with odds of 8.80. Dotter was a huge fan favourite at Melodifestivalen 2020. “Bulletproof” became widely popular and came within a point of winning last year’s competition. “Little Tot” marks Dotter’s third Melodifestivalen appearance since debuting in 2018 with “Cry”.
Dotter is followed by last year’s winner The Mamas with odds of 9.00.
Tusse – “Voices”
Eric Saade – “Every Minute”
Dotter – “Little Tot”
Melodifestivalen 2021 Final Bookmakers’ Odds
1. Tusse – 1.68
2. Eric Saade – 4.55
3. Dotter – 8.80
4. The Mamas – 9.00
5. Clara Klingenström – 29.00
6. Danny Saucedo – 35.00
7. Charlotte Perrelli – 85.00
8. Anton Ewald – 120.00
9. Arvingarna – 140.00
10. Paul Rey – 170.00
11. Klara Hammarström – 180.00
12. Alvaro Estrella – 290.00
Odds correct as of 13:00 CET 8 March 2021, via Svenska Spel.
Do YouTube views predict a win for Eric Saade?
According to the bookmakers Tusse is the clear winner. However, Eric Saade’s “Every Minute” is the most-watched video of all the finalists in Melodifestivalen 2021. As of March 7 Eric’s video has 750 503 views followed by Tusse’s “Voices” with 396 023 views. Dotter’s “Little Tot” place third with 288 857 views.
In contests that have a televote component, it’s reasonable to see a correlation between YouTube views and contest success. In both national finals and Eurovision itself, acts that have a lot of views have gone on to place well. It suggests that existing fans of a song are inspired to vote.
YouTube views of Melodifestivalen 2021 Final competing artists – as of 8 March
- Eric Saade – “Every Minute” (750 503 views)
- Tusse – “Voices” (396 023 views)
- Dotter – “Little Tot” (288 857 views)
- The Mamas – “In the Middle” (221 600 views)
- Danny – “Dandi Dansa” (212 873 views)
- Alvara Estrella – “Baila Baila” (186 926 views)
- Anton Ewald – “New Religion” (175 124 views)
- Klara Hammarström – “Beat of Broken Hearts” (168 172 views)
- Clara Klingenström – “Behöver inte dig idag” (156 588 views)
- Charlotte Perelli – “Still Young” (119 712 views)
- Paul Ray – “The Missing Piece” (105 438 views)
- Arvingarna – “Tänker Inte Alls Gå Hem” (69 908 views)
Bear in mind that four of the 12 final artists qualified through Andra Chansen (Alvaro Estrella, Klara Hammarström, Clara Klingenström and Paul Ray) which means their videos have been available on YouTube for a longer time. SVT rules allow all the competing performances to be uploaded to YouTube after each show except the direkt till final performances. These performances are uploaded after the fourth and last semi-final, after which all songs in the competition will have been performed.
Photo: Stina Stjernkvist/SVT
Do you agree with the odds? Do you think that Tusse will be the winner? Or could Eric Saade win for a second time? Or will Dotter have her revenge this year? Let us know below!
Yes, especially Clara
I was rooting for Tusse…then Dotter…then both, now i don’t care about them. When i heard Clara i fell in love with the song, also by it’s meaning. Only that song is my favorite. I’m swedish and i usually hate songs in swedish but this is the only song iv’e liked that is sung in Swedish. Its amazing, i cried and just felt pure joy and love. The other songs…come on they are just pop songs, nothing new or interesting. I know Clara won’t win (bcs Sweden is a bit dumb), I am trying to accept Tusse or Eric as… Read more »
I feel Sweden will struggle to qualify if they don’t send Eric. Every Minute is far from being a masterpiece, but it’s the best show. I loooove Voices, is so sweet and beautiful, but I feel it won’t stand out in Semi 1, which is already a bloodbath. Dotter and The Mamas have no chance to qualify. Sad, because I like all of them a lot, too, but Little Tot and In The Middle are not as catchy and memorable than their last year’s songs. And let’s be honest: Dotter’s vocals are not strong. Without the show, ESC juries will… Read more »
This just doesn’t say anything.
I hope Eric ditches those dance moves if he wins. The way he moves is kind of unsettling to me.
Eric is the only chance of winning the trophy.. And I love Dotter and Tusse by the way but the freshness and modern sounding song of this self assured guy is great..
I love to dotter to be in Eurovision 2021 it you amazing let hope it happen I been praying looking forward to Saturday Let the best song win
i REALLY REALLY want dotter to win, it’s obviously the best song, she really deserves it. Please vote for dotter swedish people¡
I think the odds are right on what songs are in contention but, as with last year, have probably gone too strong on the favourite. Danny and Clara *should* get hurt hard by international juries making them outside that group. I expect all of the big four to do well with the international juries although it’s hard to say whether the juries split the vote out evenly as they did last year or get behind one (like they did with Lundvik). Tusse’s song would be the most likely to be that one, if that were the case. International juries also… Read more »
Tusse will win due to an interesting life story (came without his parents to sweden when he was 8), but if Ingrosso got 21 televotes, this one will be lucky to get as much
I hope either Clara or Dotter wins!
Tusse’s song is very very generic, typically what is expected from Sweden, sorry to say….And his singing is not perfect.
There’s a certain 4chan type of group of people who are thinking about pushing Danny Saucedo on top :p
I’m not Swedish so I can be a little objective. After watching these, Eric Saade would be a top 10 at Eurovision. Everyone else is a borderline qualifier.
I’m not swedish too, but Your opinion is not objective.. when you say your own thoughts then it’s subjective opinion….
Borderline qualifiers? Maybe, but for now they all are borderline winners for MF.
Dotter has by far the best song out of this top 3
Vi svenskar måste rösta på Dotter eller Eric (evntuellt Clara) om vi vill komma långt i Eurovision.
Jag förväntar mig redan det värsta så att jag inte blir besviken under finalen….
Förväntar mig också Tusse, och för ESC är jag redo för allt. Från icke-kval, till sista plats till en osannolik vinst. Personligen tycker jag låten är meningslös och nåt ingen kommer ihåg och det är det jag förväntar mig händer. Men jag hoppas jag får fel..
Det kan också vara en överraskande vinnare.
2) The Mamas
I’m happy with any of the 4 but hoping for Dotter the most
I feel after last year’s lovely surprise this year will be a disappointment again (for me!). Dotter or Clara? Please yes! All others… nah, not so much 😉
Sweden, please break the trashy trend by sending Clara Klingenström, you won’t regret it.
Keeping my fingers crossed for an unexpected Charlotte Perelli victory ? because why not ?
Not a chance. Even in 2008 she didnt win the televoting in melodifestivalen and, honestly, i dont believe she wants to be in eurovision again. Melodifestivalen is the best way to promote your work and reintroduce yourself to the swedish audience
I fear that, if Tusse wins Melfest and goes to ESC, Sweden will get the #2 death slot in the semi-final. That’s likely not to happen with The Mamas, Eric, or Dotter.
Also the number 2 spot is only death in final. In The semi it has been quite sucecesfull. 75% chance to pass! So it would be good for Sweden if it was number 2
There is a reason Sweden is the world’s leading exporter of music, surpassing the UK and the US in per capita revenues, and world third counting total revenues. Maybe, just maybe Swedes know something you don’t?
COME ON CLARA FOR THE WIN. LET’S SEND A SWEDISH BOP ABOUT BELIEVING IN YOUR OWN STRENGTH AND ABILITY
Tusse, Clara and Eric are the clear favourites if you look at radiolists
Eric or Dotter for the win! Please Sweden choose between this two cause Tusse’s song is generic.
I like Tusse, Eric & Dotter, but I’m also a fan of Clara. I would be so happy if Clara wins Melodifestivalen 2021.
Sometimes I ask my Belgian friends to give their opinion about Eurovision songs, and my friend who doesn’t particularly like Eurovision or Swedish-language songs, really liked Clara’s entry … So, I think her entry could do very good at Eurovision.
Eric, Dotter, Danny or Tusse to win
Clara is my dark horse!
Hopefully The Mamas will not win!
I think the problem of Clara is Clara herself. The song is beautiful (not the best, but yet beautiful), but Clara is totally unappealing. First she looks like she didn’t take a shower for years, second she is facially inexpressive, and her looks needs an urgent fashion intervention
Here we have to take on account that Melodifestivalen is right now, much more than swedish eurovision selection process. I think that if swedes vote por Tusse, have to understand that he is ok to the swedish music market, but his song is not competitive for Eurovision. The same happens with The Mamas and the sympathy points. The only to entries that could do well in Eurovision are Eric Saade and Dotter (and even i am a fan of Dotter, i think Eric could do better than her in Eurovision)
Swedes don’t vote for what will work but for what we like. That is the difference. That’s why we have juries, to see what could work
Eric will flop with the public vote like Ingrosso did.
I strongly believe its gonna be like 2017 where the third song on televoting won due to the juries.
Tusse will win the televote with clara, dotter, saade and the Mamas coming next. Who is going to win depends on how low the juries are going to place Tusse.
I believe Dotter is going to win the juries with Saade or the Mamas coming second and Tusse fourth.
So whoever wins the jury vote is a potential winner since Tusse will definitely win the public vote.
The bookies were wrong last year and didn’t predict the Mamas to win Melfest so hopefully they’ll be wrong this year as well and that Tusse doesn’t win. His song is not strong enough to win Eurovision and I can’t see him doing well in the televote. I think both Dotter and Eric Saade have a much better shot at giving Sweden another Eurovision victory.
Dude Tusse’s song is so generic, it’s too generic. And you talking about Sweden, which puts out good generic songs but Tusse, na, too much generic.
Sorry but voices is boring middle of the road stuff, any other country sent that it would flop.
Tusse should come another year with a better song and I think Eric saade will win.
Clara is my favorite but she will never win..
It’s clearly a three horses race between Dotter, Tusse and Eric Saade. As a song, “Every Minute” is the weakest but the staging is miles aahead the others. Very “Euphoria”-ish but still current and effective (that’s what Sweden do best). Both “Voices” and “Little Tot” are modern radiofriendly and formulistic pieces of pop. Being “Voices” the best of these two. All in all, I have the feeling the juries will back Tusse and the televote Eric Saade, winning the later. I know the juries fav tend to win it all but the sum up may give Eric the 1st place.
I can only remember the last years situation when Dotter had 51% of victory in the odds and we all remember what happened in the end.
She didn’t though… Dotter had 22% Anna Bergendahl had 22% and The Mamas had 20%. Tusse has the biggest lead with the bookies for melfest in years.
Hello Pineaple, I am confident that the day before the Melfest finals last year I saw that 51 percentage in the odds. Of course, that Saturday evening odds were changing rapidly so after the event, the odds were like you said they were. But, in my comment I was targeting the fact that days before the final, Dotter had a massive lead- like the one we are seeing right now with Tusse! 🙂
Miloš is correct. The odds shifted a fair bit but, at least for the week leading up to melfest finals, Dotter was somewhere between 40 and 50 or so in the betting odds last year.
The difference is Tusse had huge lead since he performed and he is killing both Eric and Dotter in streams
Odds can be a good predictor… sometimes. However, in Sweden, it’s mostly the juries who decide the winner in the end. In my opinion, the odds reflect the televotes a lot better than the jury votes. For instance, the juries selected the winner in 2013 (Robin Stjernberg), 2017 (Robin Bengtsson) and 2018 (Benjamin Ingrosso), to give a few examples. This is why I definitely believe Tusse will receive the most televotes, don’t get me wrong on that. As a swede, the hype is all around the song for some reason. To me, it’s a medium song, but not winner worthy.… Read more »
I totally agree! Although I dont see Tusse ending up 1st in the juries, if he comes 2nd or 3rd with only a few points from the 1st, he has won.
I can’t see Tusse doing worse than 3rd with juries. That is the essence of a jury friendly song.
Maybe it’s me but I kinda feel everyone is underestimating The Mamas again and they will do much better than what people think again.
As they should! 😀
It’s not a « poor me » song at all lmao
It literally is though. It about how aboused she was by her boyfriend
What’s poor is your spelling.
OK? What a response..
Ahhhaa 😀 nice one
Clara’s win would be too good and beautiful to be true. I wish but it’s Sweden. Her entry is completely the opposite of what Sweden usually do. She’s too real and authentic
I honestly would love to see Clara win, what a beautiful song
Its more likely for her to come 2nd or 3rd on televoting than scoring high on the juries. Definitely a dark horse!
The funny thing’s that being a “huge favorite” before a show is actually a disadvantage because a lot of people who would maybe otherwise give two or three hearts, now won’t do so because they want their number one to win over the “favourite”.
I think the juries will decide outcome this year. Voting is so tight and close, the difference is like 5% between all the points. So whoever juries put in top 3 stands a good chance of winning.
Of the top 4… I like where Tusse’s trying to go, but he kinda doesn’t get there for me. Average song. Eric Saade, probably the strongest song, but I sort of get Benjamin Ingrosso vibes where he’s clearly feeling himself a bit too much, and more than the audience will. Dotter, sadly, I don’t like Little Tot at all, it really is a shame she didn’t save Bulletproof for this year. I understand she has stans, but I don’t get the hype with this song. :/ The Mamas, alright song, lovely women though, they clearly have the likeability factor. The… Read more »
I just noticed! The betting odds site split the jury and popular vote. While Tusse leads the popular vote there, the jury odds is a little closer to each other.
This just shows how dumb the odds are. Everyone knows that the jury vote is what’s going to decide the winner. Yet, whilst the odds for jury vote is only a 6% difference, the general odds are as of now a 30% difference. How even?
Great question! Unfortunately stats isn’t my forte so maybe someone better with numbers can weigh in. I guess as many have said, we won’t know the true outcome until this Saturday.
yayyy generic songs ftw…
My top 5:
You’re complaining that a “generic” song will win, yet your top 5 consists of five “generic” songs…
if tusse wins then benjamin ingrosso 2.0 in the televote-
I do think he would get more than 21 points though. It’s more warm and inviting. I don¨t think he will do as good as Lundvik did with votes, who did get 10th.
I’m with the theory that Tusse could do better than John because of
a better staging. John basically just stood there shaking his hips together with The Mamas. It left you quite indifferent..
Eric Saade package feels more Benjamin Ingrosso 2.0
Tusse might not do super well but It’s very different from Ingrosso tbh.
Is not Erics song more of a Ingrosso-song in the style?
Odds aren’t always right. Keiino topped the odds for Melodi Grand Prix , but they still lost in the end. We’re not gonna know who is going to win melfest until this Saturday, and unless any of you live in Sweden to vote, This is largely out of our hands. The fan favorite may or may not win, and whatever happens, let’s try a little harder to be respectful of the winner even if it isn’t our first choice. Too many tantrums have been thrown this year and in the past when the fandom doesn’t get their way. Yes, it’s… Read more »
This year and every other year tbh. But yes, I agree. We can be critical of a selected song or candidate without being mean or nasty.
The thing is every year people rely on odds as if they can predict the truth. Odds won’t tell you the winner, just the probable winner. Keep in mind that odds are based on what people THINK will win. The more people that say Tusse will win the more his odds will go up too.
This!! I thought KEiiNO were a surefire win, and I didn’t/still don’t get the TIX vibe, but I wouldn’t go out of my way to slate the man. Same with Denmark, the ‘Ben & Tan vs DR’ debacle has eclipsed what should be a happy time for Fyr & Flamme. Again, not a fan of their entry, but people should let them enjoy their moment. Hate what happened, sure, but don’t hate the winner. End of the day, if you like an artist, follow them, support them, buy their music – that’s what will make them prosper and in turn,… Read more »
Well TIX is like this huge star in Norway and I guess the bookers obviously paid none attention to this fact.
I agree with you though
International fans can also vote via the Melodifestivalen app if you download a VPN. I use the 7-day free trial of Express VPN and keep using a different e-mail. Just turn it on “Sweden” and your good to go 😉
Little Tot and Behöver inte dig idag are the only songs I actually really enjoy. Dandi Dansa is fun but a little annoying. Tusse, Eric and the Mamas are all fantastic performers but the songs are generic and bland for me.
The app and the international juries will not make a landslide win for the winner. I personally never had three favourites like have this year. Tusse, Dotter and Eric all have something that would make me proud to have them representing us. I know what people say about Tusses song, even if I don’t always agree I think that he’s amazing on stage. When it comes to staging and perhaps also win some eastern votes in May then Eric is the best option. Dotter is good all around even if Bulletproofs staging had more impact. Even if the odds say… Read more »
It won’t be landslide but I do think juries will decide more than voters. The app voting makes it impossible to have major point differences. I mean 3 songs can get the same amount of points
I’m happy to see Clara so high in the odds. I would love for her to win it all somehow but I know it’s not going to happen. Hopefully Dotter will win it!