Eurovision fans spend countless hours analysing the odds ahead of the contest in May. Just how accurate the bookmakers will be with their predictions is anyone’s guess. However, the betting landscape is constantly shifting and with the latest changes, Iceland have surged into fourth place.

When we last looked at the odds, Iceland had moved into the Top 5 by overtaking a number of acts, closing the gap on those ahead of them. That rise has continued, with Iceland moving into fourth with bookmakers.

Iceland’s rise comes at the expense of Nordic neighbours Sweden, who were previously in the Top 3, before being overtaken by Switzerland. It seems bookmakers think it really is too late for love after all, as Italy have also overtaken Sweden, pushing them out of the Top 5 entirely.

It must be noted that the gap between third and sixth is minuscule, with Sweden still level with Switzerland at some agencies. The sands are constantly shifting and the race is still wide open.

The rest of the landscape inside the Top 10 remains unchanged since our last look at the odds. Netherlands and Russia remain the Top 2 with bookies, with Cyprus, Greece, Malta and Norway rounding out the Top 10.

Interestingly, Switzerland has surpassed Russia at a handful of betting agencies for second place. For instance, Sportingbet are offering odds of 6/1 while Switzerland has crept into 11/2. It will be interesting to see whether Switzerland’s stock will continue to rise in the coming weeks.

What do you think of the betting odds? Do you think Iceland will continue to rise? How much are you reading into the odds this year? Let us know in the comments below.

Follow Eurovision 2019 odds here

Total
104
Shares

80
Leave a Reply

avatar
32 Comment threads
48 Thread replies
1 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
55 Comment authors
AnnaredarrowDenisStephanieLisianthus Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
Anna
Guest
Anna

Iceland nr 1.

redarrow
Guest

Malta has the best song this year

Stephanie
Guest
Stephanie

It’s way early to tell….remenber Cyprus last year….

Lisianthus
Guest
Lisianthus

Norway in the top 10? I don’t see Norway ending that high. IMO Azerbaijan has a much bigger chance of ending up in the top 10.

h7efuwefewvyi8
Guest
h7efuwefewvyi8

Sweden is always overrated as Russia, Bye Sweden and Bye Russia.

Loko
Guest
Loko

Russia shouldn’t be in Top 2.’

Briekimchi
Guest
Briekimchi

Remember that betting odds are all about minimalising loss. Songs move up not only because the bookmakers expect them to do well, but also in response to the betting market. For example, despite having little chance of winning, if everyone on this site put a bet on Georgia to win Eurovision, the bookmakers would shorten Georgia’s odds to avoid heavy potential losses. It also explains why Ireland and the UK (countries that have wagers placed on them every year regardless of song quality) are never found at the bottom of the odds tables. Iceland is an entry that could be… Read more »

Robyn Gallagher
Editor

Well explained! The other thing to keep in mind is that bookies don’t have any secret insider knowledge of what’s going to happen at Eurovision. They know as much as Eurovision betting experts do. That is, it’s knowns (like national final performances) and guesswork based on other factors. And yes, bookies can get it wrong.

Jo.
Guest
Jo.

Sweden will win the jury voting quite comfortably, they finished Top 3 with I Can’t Go On and Dance You Off, both bland as hell, so imagine how many top marks John will get, since he has a far better song than those two.

Kim
Guest
Kim

Has anyone from this site actually put a bet on?

Briekimchi
Guest
Briekimchi

I actually have a few!
Iceland to win at 22/1 (Yay!)
Norway to win at 20/1 (Yuck)
Hungary to win at 100/1 (Horrible, horrible)

I put the bet on Hungary before the NF, thinking that a Gergo Szeker, Middletonz or even Bogi Nagy might win. 100/1 would’ve been a value bet for any of those three.

Baloonbleu
Guest
Baloonbleu

Too much days before Eurovision starts: let me doing some speculations to kill time <3

gilpgilp
Guest
gilpgilp

Wiwibloggs is still peddling the dumb odds for click bait? When will they admit the odds are not a predictor? Mid-April last year the odds predicted only 1 out of the eventual top 5! Two countries it said were top 10 (belgium, greece) did not qualify! A monkey can do better than the odds. Odds from April 12, 2018 (per wiwibloggs): 1. Israel (finished 1st) 2. Czech (finished 6th) 3. Estonia (finished 8th) 4. Bulgaria (finished 14th) 5. Australia (finished 20th) 6. Sweden (finished 7th) 7. France (finished 13th) 8. Norway (finished 15th) 9. Belgium (did not qualify!) 10. Greece… Read more »

Yossarian
Guest
Yossarian

Odds are not meant to preditct a ranking, but to assess what chances each country has to be the eventual winner, that’s all. It’s a game of guesstimate. Really just a game, so relax (unless you’re betting money 🙂 ).
Incidentally, Wiwibloggs has nothing to do with those odds, they’re just reporting them.

gilpgilp
Guest
gilpgilp

Hello? Did you read the subject of the wiwibloggs article? It’s reporting on the “Top 5” – not the eventual winner. So criticize wiwibloggs for incorrectly defining the odds.

HallsiKallsi
Guest
HallsiKallsi

The top 5 of the betting odds, not the top 5 of Eurovision, they never state that for example Iceland is predicted 4th, only that they’ve moved up to 4th place in the odds, meaning they’re now 4th most likely to win

gilpgilp
Guest
gilpgilp

Not a lot of difference here. Last year at this time the odds gave 5 songs that were the most likely to win and 4 out of the 5 did not even come close. Meanwhile, apart from Israel, the songs that did come close were not recognized by the odds as having a high likelihood of winning. So they were very off.

Yossarian
Guest
Yossarian

It happens. The actual live peformance on the night can shake up everything, if it turns out to be better or worse than expected, or if they manage to create a moment or not. That’s what makes the betting interesting.

Miguel
Guest
Miguel

I am so sure Iceland will win.

And watch out for Slovenia, their amazing song will be in Top 5 for sure.

Azerbaijan will also be high.

My guilty pleasure is Cyprus!

Best from Spain

Bear
Guest
Bear

I would not be surprised because it is so crazy it is actually fun. But on the other hand I don’t know if it will have enough votes to win. Last year Netta was crazy , fun and remarkable too, but it has this party colourful theme which can appeal all sorts of people. I don’t know if that would work too with Iceland because it has this dark and “devil” theme. It might shock some more conservative people in Europe.

gilpgilp
Guest
gilpgilp

Not only will it not win, it might not qualify. The jury will hate Iceland and many older people in Europe too.

poe-tay-toe chips
Guest
poe-tay-toe chips

Iceland won the jury vote by a pretty good margin in the national final.

More realistically, they’ll be a televote top 5, and middle of the road for the jury.

François
Guest
François

This story is based on wrong data. The ranking is obviously wrong. Why is Iceland ranked better than Italy when all the odds for Italy are the same or lower than Iceland.

If you take the average of the odds you will see another ranking:

1 – Netherlands (avg 2.9)
2 – Russia (avg 6.2)
3 – Switzerland (avg 6.6)
4 – Sweden (avg 11.3)
5 – Italy (avg 11.8)
6 – Iceland (avg 12.8)

Please change the title to: “Eurovision odds: Nothing has changed in top 6”

Denis
Guest
Denis

Old news. Sweden is 4th in odds now. Probably will reach top 5 too.
Iceland isn’t mainstream enough but could attract the oss voters

Jack
Guest
Jack

Poor Denis, just be prepared for the televoting results in May. Cause they won’t be good.

Denis
Guest
Denis

Poor Jack, thinking that everyone remembers last years voting. They don’t
Poor deluded Jack thinking that last years voting means it will happen again this year. It’s not. There is no indication. But I let you think that…

Trh
Guest
Trh

Poor supramicist Denis thinking that Sweden is this supreme Nation that can be so morally superior and richer than everyone else and of course that Sweden has to win every year and being delusioned because every year they send something worse than the year before.

Denis
Guest
Denis

Lol a Serbian teaching us about supremacy..
Go star a war with your neighbour, isn’t that what you’re famous for?

jack
Guest
jack

hahaha i love that you are talking about delusion while you think that you will be in top 5 just cause its sweden . I pray that you will stay in the semis just to learn your lesson that you shouldnt underestimate other countries. BB

Denis
Guest
Denis

Or maybe you should stop hating Sweden just because it’s Sweden?
At least we don’t go around wishing for other countries to flop. You don’t hide the fact that you still gloat about a pointless thing that happened last year. Or that you take joy in the not so plausible thought that it will happen again, because last year was supposedly a sign…
How very Eurovision , to hate! They must be really proud to have you share positivity

Hmm
Guest
Hmm

I actually like all songs in top 10 of the betting odds lol and wouldn’t mind any of them winning the contest haha

Rom
Guest

Looks like it might be too late but that’s okay with me. Im okay with hatred prevailing. They’ll put on an amazing show in Tel Aviv in May and I will be all there for it.

Eurovisionfan12
Guest
Eurovisionfan12

This will get a lot of downvotes, but Sweden is in my top 10 this year and they deserve a top 10 <3

P.S. I hated Sweden's entries in 2018 and 2016, but I'm not gonna automatically rank a country low just because it's THAT country

Guest
Guest
Guest

really? I think this year’s Swedish entry is terrible. I actually like Sweden every year (2016 wasn’t great). But this years imo is actually so bad and waaaaayy too overhyped like this wouldn’t make it out of a semi if I was to choose. Its dated (not the same way as last year’s, last year they pulled it off) and I know it will qualify because its Sweden but genuinely, I don’t think it deserves qualification.

Caroline
Guest
Caroline

I don’t think it’s bad or good. It’s a mediocre commercial pop song. We all have the feeling we’ve heard this tune before. The same every year since 2016.

HallsiKallsi
Guest
HallsiKallsi

As it should be, I’m not a fan of Sweden this year, wasn’t last year, but 2010-2017 were all stellar songs in my opinion, they’ve kinda gone downhill for me for the last 2 years

EuroBalkan
Guest
EuroBalkan

Running orders of Semi-finals are announced

Polegend Godgarina
Guest

hmm iceland will 100% be buried by the juries tho

gilpgilp
Guest
gilpgilp

100% agree!

tom dyncna
Guest
tom dyncna

these are old sweden is number 4 in odds

It's me
Guest
It's me

The Netherlands, Russia, Italy and Iceland are overrated. Iceland is my last place, Russia is my 31 , Italy is my 28 and The Netherlands are my 17. I know they are really big favourites but IT IS MY OPINION.

just a fan
Guest
just a fan

And like who’s your number 1?

Serafina
Guest
Serafina

Lol then who’s your top2? Montenegro and Georgia?
And I know there is no such thing as “wrong opinion” but perhaps yours is the first one to be completely wrong hehe

Caroline
Guest
Caroline

I wouldn’t rank Italy and Netherlands so low, but I agree about Russia and Iceland. I like Netherlands’, but I don’t think it’s winning material. Same about Sweden and Switzerland.

Matija
Guest
Matija

I still do not understand why Italy, Sweden and Iceland are among the favorites. Excessively.

Nicky91
Guest
Nicky91

GO Iceland

Meliris
Guest
Meliris

wow, you make sense for once… 😉

Nicolas
Guest
Nicolas

All top 5 betting odds is overrated.

Henry
Guest
Henry

You say that because your favourite is not among them.. If Malta was in top 5 you would not leave such reaction here…

someone
Guest
someone

Malta deserves to be in the top 5

gilpgilp
Guest
gilpgilp

Last year in April the betting odds only got 1 out of the top 5 correct (Israel)!

HallsiKallsi
Guest
HallsiKallsi

Wrong, they got the winner correct, that’s how these odds work

L'oiseau
Guest
L'oiseau

I really think Iceland is being overrated by the bookies. I appreciate and applaud the orignality, but I don’t see it having mass apeal among the jury and televote. I think that there is some Netta meets Lordi-effect going on, but this is far less palatable than Lordi and I sincerely think that a significant part of the jury and televote will be put off by the BSDM imagery and the growling. I will not put any money in it, for sure.

dutchie
Guest
dutchie

It’s a ‘love it or hate it’ type of entry. Which means that some people will also absolutely love it (maybe for all the wrong reasons, for instance because they hate Eurovision). That’s what gets you the televotes, not if you are just ‘meh’ for everyone.

L'oiseau
Guest
L'oiseau

Indeed. I think this the “circus act” of 2019 (don’t mean it in a bad way) and will capture the votes of those that vote for the fun or “ridicule”. Apart from Portugal, maybe, there is no other act does that this year. They are all very “serious”. But I don’t see that being enough to win, though, because, as you say, it will be very devisive among the jury also.

Weißbrot
Guest
Weißbrot

Exactly what I’m thinking, Italy, Netherlands, Iceland and maybe Russia are the ones to watch. I kinda feel like Norway is fanwank of the year material, idk. Could flop really hard…

someone
Guest
someone

and Malta

ESC 2019
Guest

Norways song flop last year for Finland. And its gonna do the same this yeat for Norway. And Iceland are nog gonba be in the final

Darren
Guest
Darren

Sweden is good but seriously overrated. Switzerland, yes such a catchy song and a great performer, and no doubt they will get their best result since Sebalter…but top 3 is overrated for them too.
Sweden will finish 6th-15th. Switzerland will finish 5-10th. Both still respectable scores, especially for Switzerland who haven’t been in a final since 2014.
Netherlands, Italy and Iceland seem to be the real contenders.
Personally I would replace Iceland with Portugal but if Iceland where to win, I would accept it as I can see the merits or the hype behind it.

Mark
Guest
Mark

Sweden is that high only because everybody thinks that they will be helped by juries.

Guest
Guest
Guest

They don’t think, they know 🙂

ALL Wei
Guest
ALL Wei

back in the past of eurovision, France, Luxembourg. Ireland and also the UK had their hey and glorydays. Sooner or later Sweden will end up in that slot!! They need to reinvent their uniqueness and qualities!! Afterall you dont wanna change your bed from Ikea every year!! You just prefer having a good bed, lasting for longer than 1 season!! Sweden!! Come on, you can do it!!

Guest
Guest
Guest

wum Sweden will have their glory days? You’re saying coming top 10 for practically a decade whilst winning twice isn’t “glory days”. Also, a country shouldn’t just come high because it’s Sweden (essentially a country that always does well). If the song is good, why not, of course, however, if it’s fairly bad then no.

Guest
Guest
Guest

If Cyprus came 2nd last year, there is no reason really why Switzerland can’t come 2nd this year.

L'oiseau
Guest
L'oiseau

I think Fuego is a better song and there was no other in the same genre last year. Switzerland this year has other similar competition: Cyprus and Malta comes to mind.

Skiwalko
Guest
Skiwalko

What’s the difference? We know all the songs, no pre-parties took place, there’s still one month left until the rehearsals start. Why not just wait 4 days more?

KESC
Guest
KESC

Sweden shouldn’t even be in the TOP 10 and as much as I love She Got Me, 3rd place is honestly too high.

Geo
Guest
Geo

Sweden is like always overrated, no matter what junk entries they send. Hope they’ll fail to qualify once and for all

12345
Guest
12345

Unfortunately, they will qualify. I’m sick of them

Darren
Guest
Darren

The issue with Sweden is that they know they will overrated by the juries, so they don’t really try so hard anymore. It’s making them lazy. They have been lazy since 2016.
I think if juries and bookies and certain figures in the fandom stopped inflating them, then they would try harder and we would get more Loreen or Mans moments.
Perhaps a non-qualification will send them back down to earth, much like they tried harder after Anna Bergendahl NQd in 2010, they came back roaring with Eric Saade in 2011 and of course won with Loreen in 2012.

Alex
Guest
Alex

Lazy since 2016 but Mans was also so overrated by juries. That was the beginning of the backlash

i where
Guest
i where

Sweden maybe not so good this year, but they have a good show and great gospel and singer vocals.
I think people forget that the vocals in this competition are valued very highl

AM2PM
Guest
AM2PM

If so Ireland would rank way higher.

Guest
Guest
Guest

@AM2PM Very true

Ric
Guest
Ric

Word by Word That’s exactly what I Think too

Snappy
Guest
Snappy

I’m not getting the appeal with either of them to be honest.

Sweden is too generic so I’m glad it’s dropping down…

Iceland’s entry is…. idek. Everything’s great about it, styling, the vibe, the risk – but the guy legit screaming is just a nahhhhh, kills it. I thought Ukraine’s would be too risque for Eurovision, but hey ho now we have BDSM Iceland.

Now what I don’t understand is why Belarus is DEAD LAST in the odds. There’s MUCH WORSE songs than Belarus.

i where
Guest
i where

Iceland won’t even be in the top 10 at Eurovision. Bookmakers and ordinary fans exaggerate the chances of Iceland, Portugal, Italy and other countries

Snappy
Guest
Snappy

I feel they’re gonna get the Norway treatment of last year. They’ll do well in the Semis for being over-hyped, then come the Final, they’ll flop.

poe-tay-toe chips
Guest
poe-tay-toe chips

???? Ukraine was more risqué than Iceland.

MARUV and her dancers not only dressed provocatively, but the lyrics and choreography were also sexual too.

Iceland may be wearing a lot of leathher harnesses, but they are still barely showing skin. Neither their lyrics or their dancing is all that sexual.

If they were women, most people wouldn’t think twice.

People just aren’t used to MEN being the ones to dress this way.

Ivar
Guest
Ivar

It is fun to speculate, but these bets will mean very little as long as a substantial number of the songs have not been heard and seen live