The world works in mysterious ways — especially when it comes to our beloved song contest. And that’s one reason Eurofans love Eurovision curiosities. These are those strange happenings and coincidences that suggest a strange force is at work willing some countries to the top. Sometimes the crystal ball gazing is right on the money, as when Portugal’s win at the UEFA Euro 2016 football showdown seemed to predict Salvador Sobral’s Eurovision win a year later. Other times these alleged harbingers of what’s to come are simply a spot of fun (cue Alvaro Estrella). Long story short: Don’t take this too seriously.
The latest prediction comes hot on the heels of the EBU’s confirmation that 41 countries will participate in Eurovision 2020. According to the many myth-makers out there, a Big 5 country — that’s France, Germany, Italy, Spain or the United Kingdom — will win the next edition of Eurovision.
This tweet — laid down by Eurofan account @DreamerTresc — is what set off the latest chatter. In it he describes a very curious pattern he’s noticed between Eurovision in the years 2007 to 2010 and 2017 to now.
2007 a country win for 1st time
2008 43 country
2009 a country withdraw due to problem with Russia
2010 no 🇭🇺 and 🇲🇪 /winner is from big 5
_
2017 a country win for 1st time
2018 43
2019 a country withdraw due to problem with Russia
2020 no 🇭🇺 🇲🇪??— EUROVISION 2020 🇳🇱 – TED (@DreamerTresc) November 9, 2019
In 2007 and 2017, a country won Eurovision for the first time in that country’s history (Serbia and Portugal respectively). In 2008 and 2018, there were 43 countries participating in the contest (the only other time this happened was in 2011). And, to top it all off, 2009 and 2019 both saw countries (Georgia and Ukraine) withdraw over drama involving Russia.
Now we’re in 2020, where things get really interesting. In the months leading up to the contest 10 years ago, Hungary and Montenegro withdrew. Remind you of anything? Put it all together and the tweet suggests that a Big Five country will win in Rotterdam.
Judging from the recent record of the Big 5, one has reason to be hopeful. Italy came within striking distance of winning in Kiev 2017 and Lisbon 2018, and extremely close in Tel Aviv 2019. France, despite not finishing in the top 10 in a while, have also been favourites at various points in the process in 2016, 2018 and 2019. And Germany even managed a Top 5 finish in Lisbon. Sadly the UK and Spain have not had similar success in recent years.
The pattern looks promising for Big Five fans, but the automatic qualifiers can’t rely on speculation alone. Thankfully the UK is working on a new selection method, Spain is going internal following two years of OT, and France is…apparently re-jigging their national final, though we aren’t sure exactly how.
Anyway, we’re expecting the Big Five to put on a show in Rotterdam, and perhaps in 2021 we’ll see the first 25-country grand final since…You guessed it, 2011.
What do you think? Could a Big Five nation bring the trophy home this year? Join the conversation in the comments below!
Why do we need interval acts in the semi’s. Why can’t the big 5 who vote in those finals perform as interval acts. It gives each song a chance to be heard that way.
Would really love a UK win in 2020 but all signs point to Italy. They have been consistent for many years and deserve a break!
If there is a Big-5 winner, it has to be Italy. They’ve been top-10 the last 3 years and they have never sent a trainwreck since they returned to the contest in 2011.
No
I think they would all have a slightly bigger chance if they were performing their songs in one of the semis too. They get less exposure + media coverage. But in the end it’s all about having a song that pleases both juries and public.
I think the top3 will be entirely made up of countries with a B 😉
1 Burgaria
2 Belgium
3 Belarus
Belgium have to raise their live performances by a huge amount if the last two years are anything to go by. It’s a real shame because the songs were excellent. A wasted opportunity Belgium. Please don’t do it again.
I think history will repeat itself, but I think it’s more recent history. Italy, with an entry tried and tested through San Remo, will be top half. The other four won’t.
Even though this is a reach, for our reputation I hope the UK finally gets their act together, and we end up with a song with the possibility of winning. Although realistically Italy is more likely to win next year.
For the UK to get even close to winning the whole of the UK media as well as the team behind the song have to take it seriously. Over the last few years there has been a sharp decline in any interest from the radio stations and non BBC TV channels. Before having a go at the rest of Europe please take an interest ourselves.
I think France and Belgium might be the winners this year, I would have put Hungary there as well had they participated. I’d like to see the Big 5 countries do better, especially UK and Spain
Italy, this is your chance
UK is definitely not gonna be the one, if this happens. I’d expect them to come last in the final again if anything. I don’t think Germany will either and 2018 is the best we’re gonna see out of them in a while. They just happened to get lucky that year. France is a possibility since they send decent stuff, so long as they don’t continue the trend of slowly declining in quality as they have been since 2016. Spain deserves more credit and I’m surprised they scored so low last year, but I still don’t see them getting a… Read more »
My bet now is on Belgium
Italy please.
It can also be that a big five country finishes last, which happened in 2010.
Or that Sweden doesn’t qualify, which happened in 2010.
Or that a former ESC winner would return to the competition, which happened in 2010.
Or that a country would achieve its 2nd victory, which happened in 2010.
Or that a freakishly tall woman would represents a country from the Caucasus, which happened in 2010.
Or that there would be a stage invasion, which happened in 2010.
Or that a Scandinavian country sends a song with a french title, which happened in 20
10.
No it didn’t. Iceland isn’t in Scandinavia.
Look at Mr. Mierenneuker over here! 😉
A Nordic country then, OK?
After ESC 2019, I said Hungary was going to be the next winner….silly me.
2010: Dark-haired woman wins
2012: Dark-haired woman wins
2014: Dark-haired “woman” wins
2016: Dark-haired woman wins
2018: Dark-haired woman wins
Choose your candidates wisely, Europe!
A bit pedantic Campbell considering the act was introduced as a drag act resembling a woman.
Conchita also identifies as Male so yes
Australia are off to a great start then!
If a Big 5 country is to win again, I’d say it will be Italy, they’ve come second or even win the televote so many times.
Also, if they return to the format used from 2016-2018, then I could also consider France as one to watch.
I don’t see Germany doing it again, their entries keep getting worse.
Spain never get the results that they deserve, so it’s unlikely at this point that the public and juries will suddenly change their mind, although I’d love to see them winning sometime.
United Kingdom……well.
Maybe the Italian jury can do the same next year as what they did this year to increase it’s chances of winning: deliberately downvote the direct competition.
Members of the jury change year after years. Usually Italian jury is pretty much fair, actually.
2013: 12 points to Denmark (actual winner) 2014: 12 points to Austria (actual winner) 2015: 12 points to Sweden (actual winner) 2016: 10 points to Ukraine (actual winner) 2017: 5 points to Portugal (which on the other hand downvoted us) 2018: 5 points to Cyprus (bookmakers’ favourite to win) Don’t act as though we’ve never been fair because it’s not true. What they did this year was clearly a strategy vote but it’s actually the first time it happened. (We didn’t give any points to Sweden in 2012 either, but that wasn’t beacuse the juries thought we could win that… Read more »
Got a feeling UK will win jury voting next year.
Sure it will…
It might if it’s James Blunt with ‘Monsters’
If this should really be the case, I support Italy. I mean they serve quality since 2011 and deserve to win really soon. I’m sure Italy would be a great host country.
Zeeeeeeeero Poinnnnnnnnnts~
Germany, it’s time to redeem yourself.
Haha this reminds me of the iconic “Germany, I’m sorry, zero points”. Most iconic announcement of zero points ever.
I highly doubt a Big Five country will win next year but if so, it’s definitely not going to be the UK.
i want a country that have never won again to win in 2020. That would mean a lot to them (cyprus, malta, romania etc)
Ooh yes, i’d love to see any of the three win.
I would like to see Hungary finally win as well, but obviously next year that’s impossible…it’s a shame though, they’ve been really solid lately
I can do this too!
1979: contest hosted in Israel
1980: contest hosted in the Netherlands
1980: Morocco participates
1980: Ireland wins
2019: contest hosted in Israel
2020: contest hosted in the Netherlands
2020: sponsored by MOROCCAN oil??
2020: ???
Just kidding this is BS
So, France: Could be you never know, but are they using the NF or not? Since we haven’t had any news about it… They do go internal selections as well as NFs. Germany: Don’t see it, but I can see another top 5 placement, since last year NF had two great songs(Aly Ryan and Lily Among Clouds). Italy: Could happen for sure, San Remo is still a league of it’s own. Mahmood gave a lot of energy to the young artist I guess and the pros will enter as always. High hopes. Spain: Think they will get the best result… Read more »
Other point of view: French would host mostly in French… which is ok. They could finally have chance to speak as much as they want (maybe then we could avoid THE french monologue during jury votes presentation)… Italian would demand to host in Italian as in ’91 (anyway RAI doesn’t want to host, so not winning is their goal). Germans bring me bad memories of making mess with sound in the first sf of 2011… and no Israel (Dana) in the final… but I admit that Anke was one of the best hosts ever 😉 Spannish would have a problem.… Read more »
Italy is the most likely to win. The UK could surprise with a world-classed record label behind their act. Spain will depend on Castro’s song, Germany sticking to their same disaster that was this year and I don’t know about France, not enough information yet.
Italy have some chance than France…
1. Italy
2.France
3.Germany
4.Spain
5.United Kingdom
If any of the Big 5 win next year, Italy and France is most likely to win it (they showed up to us great entries in the past few year, also their NF is amazing). Germany also have many talents to consider (maybe revamped NF would be great) But, UK and Spain could make a surprise to us considering they both switch their way of selecting entries this year and could ended like Germany victory after their result in the 00s (credit to Campbell Grace and Joe). Speaking of pattern, alot of people say that Ireland continuing it’s pattern by… Read more »
If y’all are looking for history repeating itself: Ireland’s first two wins both happened in the Netherlands, exactly fifty and forty years ago respectively. Their third was also in a Benelux country (Belgium) and the same guy who won the second and third times (Mr. Johnny Logan, natch) wrote the runner-up song in yet another Benelux country (Luxembourg).
Seeing Ireland win after placing dead last this year would be interesting
although…I’m not really buying it happening
It’s happened before.
It will be great if a Big 5 country wins it! I’ve really loved a lot of their songs this past decade. My absolute favorites are: France (2016, 2017, and 2018); Germany (2013 and 2019); Italy (2015 and 2017); Spain (2012, 2014, and 2019); and United Kingdom (2011 and 2018). Based on track-record, Italy is probably the most likeliest of the Big 5 to win next. Fan-favorite France is also a contender, and I am pretty sure a Eurovision win for them is on the cards in the near future. I’d be really happy if Germany won, as they are… Read more »
Wouldn’t mind! After all, Germany was coming off a big slump in the ‘00s when they won, including a few last places. Supposing Spain or the UK are on the road to a similar turn around? Maybe it’ll be an inverse of 2010, since the UK finished last that year (but lord knows Germany doesn’t need to finish last again, poor guys).
Of course they have a chance to win – but that depends on the songs they’ll send rather than on some “patten” you could find. That being said – I think that from the five it’s Italy who would most likely win.
No. Germany – keeping the same format, as evidenced by the difference in placing between Michael Schulte and sisters, it’s very much about the song. Songs themselves in the selection lose their authenticity as the artist themselves has no input in the process and songs are often made with the specific purpose for ESC which shoehorns them into what is perceived to be a good formula. France – France is finding their footing again but it’ll be a few years before they contend for victory. Edoardo Grassi leaving was the biggest loss, but a want to fiddle with the format… Read more »
Italy: Don’t see them winning. The runner up country from the year before mostly ends somewhere in the middle and not in the top 5 or higher. Spain: Blas Cantò… Yes, depends on the song. But tbh seeing them winning… I am not so sure. France: Possible. They are always fan favorites. But still weren’t that successful as excepted. But they always have potential winners in Destination Eurovision so why not.. UK: They will select internaly. Good decision! But I am not so sure if the act will be that great. They could also send a joke act. But if… Read more »
Why can’t the prediction be a German-speaking country winning in 2020? Or a central European country? Or a country starting with G?
So: Switzerland, Austria, the Czech Republic, Poland, Romania, Georgia, Greece, Croatia, and Slovenia are all on the table. (And Italy if you count South Tyrol)
Or maybe a surprise late addition? Vaduz 2021?
Or Nuuk 2021
Or…dare we say Luxembourg City 2021?
Italy won last time in 1990, so 30 years ago, and this year is the 70th edition of Sanremo music festival so it would be a great way to celebrate our music and the place where everything had started.
?? or ??
Everyone saying it won’t be the UK or Spain because they’ve been doing badly, well I’m pretty sure Germany was doing mediocre in the 2000’s until their victory in 2010? Never say never huns…
Germany were in bottom 10 for 5 straight years incl. 2 last places in 2005-9 and then BOOM they won out of nowhere, glad you pointed this out,
It won’t be Italy because their songs are too different from mainstream to top both jury vote and televote.
I feel the same sadly. Too unique in this game. – If it didn’t happen in 2015 when they broke all televoting records Idk. That was the year imo. – Also 2018 had a chance since their song was on paper a song that juries should’ve really respect + they had televoting support even with no media buzz. It could won in a Jamala-style but anyway. – And then 2019. Very close again. This time it was mainstream yet not generic. They sent a bomb Hit. Spotify and radio friendly and yet juries didn’t go for it enough. – Three… Read more »
no
Only Italy and France have any chance to win. The rest needs to try a lot harder
Italy have a hella tough job to follow up Mahmood, France have been struggling on their staging last 3 years, UK or Spain could pull off a shock victory following 5 years of very poor results like Germany did in 2010.
Germany needs to start internally selecting I think. Spain made a good move deciding to do that I think.
If your NF aren’t pulling in the results you want than it obviously needs to be changed or scrapped.
They all have a chance to win because even a broadcaster who doesn’t have a clue what it’s doing can come up with gold once in a while. Also germany tried but the song with least potential won their nf (altough i liked sisters)
it only takes one right song…. look at portugal. anyone could do it, especially a big 5 country which the ebu wouldn’t be against giving the organization of the contest to
I love eurovision curiosities
I think that the UK will be the next Big 5 country to win
I’d love that to be true (from the uk here) but I think it’s highly unlikely because the songs aren’t good enough. Based on recent years, would most likely be Italy but wouldn’t be surprised if its france.
But they’re going Internal so I think, they really improve with that. Internal selections usually work well. NF is riskier in my opinion
I’ve got a weird feeling about the UK this year too. I’m gutted that I won’t be able to go and see it this year though!
I’m still not getting my Hopes up. At least not until I hear the song. But our internal selections didnt really work well. But I will say, they were focused on by the BBC, who aren’t particularly involved in music. Having a record label involved could be a good move as they have more to lose.
I can see UK winning the jury vote but get plunged by televote(8th-12th) bruh imagine how the British tabloids would react to that!
The jury vote does seem like our best chance at a decent position. Mainly looking at 2017 there
Hope for France! They deserve it so much ??
I’m pray to god BBC will pick someone famous.
Or a decent contemporary regardless if it’s by a famous or unsigned artist!
yuh it’s italy’s turn