The world works in mysterious ways — especially when it comes to our beloved song contest. And that’s one reason Eurofans love Eurovision curiosities. These are those strange happenings and coincidences that suggest a strange force is at work willing some countries to the top. Sometimes the crystal ball gazing is right on the money, as when Portugal’s win at the UEFA Euro 2016 football showdown seemed to predict Salvador Sobral’s Eurovision win a year later. Other times these alleged harbingers of what’s to come are simply a spot of fun (cue Alvaro Estrella). Long story short: Don’t take this too seriously.
The latest prediction comes hot on the heels of the EBU’s confirmation that 41 countries will participate in Eurovision 2020. According to the many myth-makers out there, a Big 5 country — that’s France, Germany, Italy, Spain or the United Kingdom — will win the next edition of Eurovision.
This tweet — laid down by Eurofan account @DreamerTresc — is what set off the latest chatter. In it he describes a very curious pattern he’s noticed between Eurovision in the years 2007 to 2010 and 2017 to now.
2007 a country win for 1st time
2008 43 country
2009 a country withdraw due to problem with Russia
2010 no 🇭🇺 and 🇲🇪 /winner is from big 5
2017 a country win for 1st time
2019 a country withdraw due to problem with Russia
2020 no 🇭🇺 🇲🇪??
— EUROVISION 2020 🇳🇱 – TED (@DreamerTresc) November 9, 2019
In 2007 and 2017, a country won Eurovision for the first time in that country’s history (Serbia and Portugal respectively). In 2008 and 2018, there were 43 countries participating in the contest (the only other time this happened was in 2011). And, to top it all off, 2009 and 2019 both saw countries (Georgia and Ukraine) withdraw over drama involving Russia.
Now we’re in 2020, where things get really interesting. In the months leading up to the contest 10 years ago, Hungary and Montenegro withdrew. Remind you of anything? Put it all together and the tweet suggests that a Big Five country will win in Rotterdam.
Judging from the recent record of the Big 5, one has reason to be hopeful. Italy came within striking distance of winning in Kiev 2017 and Lisbon 2018, and extremely close in Tel Aviv 2019. France, despite not finishing in the top 10 in a while, have also been favourites at various points in the process in 2016, 2018 and 2019. And Germany even managed a Top 5 finish in Lisbon. Sadly the UK and Spain have not had similar success in recent years.
The pattern looks promising for Big Five fans, but the automatic qualifiers can’t rely on speculation alone. Thankfully the UK is working on a new selection method, Spain is going internal following two years of OT, and France is…apparently re-jigging their national final, though we aren’t sure exactly how.
Anyway, we’re expecting the Big Five to put on a show in Rotterdam, and perhaps in 2021 we’ll see the first 25-country grand final since…You guessed it, 2011.
What do you think? Could a Big Five nation bring the trophy home this year? Join the conversation in the comments below!