With just under a week away until Australia’s national selection on the Gold Coast, Australia’s bookmakers have taken bets on who should win Eurovision – Australia Decides.
The favourite to take out the final is indie-pop singer Montaigne.
Australia Decides 2020 Odds: Montaigne favourite to win
The “Don’t Break Me” singer has broken through the odds, is currently trading on Bet365 at odds of 3.75.
An ARIA award winner and making the annual Triple J Hottest 100 list, Montaigne has channelled her haunting vocals for her track “Don’t Break Me”, showcasing her artistic flair. With an element of melodrama in the lyrics, Montaigne has created a pop-friendly sound through strong production and simple, effective lyrics. It’s contemporary, relatable and reflective of Montaigne as a 24 year old navigating life and relationships.
Speaking about the track, Montaigne said:
“”Don’t Break Me” is a depiction of the enough is enough phase of a relationship breakdown, where one person feels like they are putting much more time, energy and resources into the relationship than the other person and becomes frustrated and resentful. I wrote it while reading Codependent No More by Melody Beattie, which really informed the qualities of the character and the relationship dynamic.”
Australia Decides 2020: Other favourites
Montaigne may have the shortest odds, but there are several more acts at the top end of the bookie rankings.
Closest is Mitch Tambo on 4. “Together” is a multilingual track, traditional sounds and language with contemporary beats and production, breathing modern life to a traditional culture.
Casey Donovan’s odds are not far behind on 5.5. The Idol winner and “Proud” singer appeared on the Australia Decides stage in 2019 as a guest performer.
Just behind on odds are Jack Vidgen on 6.5 with the track “I Am King I Am Queen”. The reality show veteran (despite his young age) was the Australian act you were most excited for in January.
Olympic superstar and 16 time ARIA award nominated superstar Vanessa Amorosi also sits on odds of 6.5 with her track “Lessons of Love”.
While we are yet to see any of these songs performed live on the Gold Coast stage, these odds are driven partly by hype.
That said, bookies and oddsmakers do keep their ears-to-the-ground and often have insight from songwriters and officials close to (and even inside) broadcasters. Sometimes their crystal balls are based on facts that the rest of us simply don’t know about. The only problem is it’s hard to know when they’re on it and when they’re not.
Australia Decides 2020 Bookmakers’ Odds
- Montaigne – Don’t Break me 3.75
- Mitch Tambo – Together 4
- Casey Donovan – Proud 5.5
- Jack Vidgen – I Am King I Am Queen 6.5
- Vanessa Amorosi – Lessons of Love 6.5
- Jaguar Jonze – Rabbit Hole 13
- Diana Rouvas – Can We Make Heaven 21
- Didirri – Raw Stuff 21
- Jordan-Ravi – Pushing Stars 26
- iOTA – Life 26
Odds correct as of 12:00 CET 3 January 2020, via Bet365
How the odds work
A “fractional betting odd” is when you see two numbers separated by a slash, e.g. 9/1. Such odds let you work out how much money you will win on your bet compared to your initial stake. The number on the left is how much you will win and the number on the right is the amount you need to stake in order to win that figure.
Taking the 9/1 example, for every €1.00 you bet, you will win €9.00. This can also be calculated as a “decimal odd” — 1/(9 + 1)*100 = 10.00. There is a 10% chance that this will be the outcome.
If you make a winning bet of €1.00 you would get back €10.00 — €9.00 in winnings plus your original €1.00
Do you agree with the odds? Would you back Montaigne? Or do you think your money would be better off invested elsewhere? Let us know in the comments.