With just under a week away until Australia’s national selection on the Gold Coast, Australia’s bookmakers have taken bets on who should win Eurovision – Australia Decides.

The favourite to take out the final is indie-pop singer Montaigne.

Australia Decides 2020 Odds: Montaigne favourite to win

The “Don’t Break Me” singer has broken through the odds, is currently trading on Bet365 at odds of 3.75.

An ARIA award winner and making the annual Triple J Hottest 100 list, Montaigne has channelled her haunting vocals for her track “Don’t Break Me”, showcasing her artistic flair. With an element of melodrama in the lyrics, Montaigne has created a pop-friendly sound through strong production and simple, effective lyrics. It’s contemporary, relatable and reflective of Montaigne as a 24 year old navigating life and relationships.

Speaking about the track, Montaigne said:

“”Don’t Break Me” is a depiction of the enough is enough phase of a relationship breakdown, where one person feels like they are putting much more time, energy and resources into the relationship than the other person and becomes frustrated and resentful. I wrote it while reading Codependent No More by Melody Beattie, which really informed the qualities of the character and the relationship dynamic.”

Australia Decides 2020: Other favourites

Montaigne may have the shortest odds, but there are several more acts at the top end of the bookie rankings.

Closest is Mitch Tambo on 4. “Together” is a multilingual track, traditional sounds and language with contemporary beats and production, breathing modern life to a traditional culture.

Casey Donovan’s odds are not far behind on 5.5. The  Idol winner and “Proud” singer appeared on the Australia Decides stage in 2019 as a guest performer.

Just behind on odds are Jack Vidgen on 6.5 with the track “I Am King I Am Queen”. The reality show veteran (despite his young age) was the Australian act you were most excited for in January.

Olympic superstar and 16 time ARIA award nominated superstar Vanessa Amorosi also sits on odds of 6.5 with her track “Lessons of Love”.

While we are yet to see any of these songs performed live on the Gold Coast stage, these odds are driven partly by hype.

That said, bookies and oddsmakers do keep their ears-to-the-ground and often have insight from songwriters and officials close to (and even inside) broadcasters. Sometimes their crystal balls are based on facts that the rest of us simply don’t know about. The only problem is it’s hard to know when they’re on it and when they’re not.

Australia Decides 2020 Bookmakers’ Odds

  1. Montaigne – Don’t Break me 3.75
  2. Mitch Tambo – Together 4
  3. Casey Donovan – Proud 5.5
  4. Jack Vidgen – I Am King I Am Queen 6.5
  5. Vanessa Amorosi – Lessons of Love 6.5
  6. Jaguar Jonze – Rabbit Hole 13
  7. Diana Rouvas – Can We Make Heaven 21
  8. Didirri – Raw Stuff 21
  9. Jordan-Ravi – Pushing Stars 26
  10. iOTA – Life 26

Odds correct as of 12:00 CET 3 January 2020, via Bet365

How the odds work

A “fractional betting odd” is when you see two numbers separated by a slash, e.g. 9/1. Such odds let you work out how much money you will win on your bet compared to your initial stake. The number on the left is how much you will win and the number on the right is the amount you need to stake in order to win that figure.

Taking the 9/1 example, for every €1.00 you bet, you will win €9.00. This can also be calculated as a “decimal odd” — 1/(9 + 1)*100 = 10.00. There is a 10% chance that this will be the outcome.

If you make a winning bet of €1.00 you would get back €10.00 — €9.00 in winnings plus your original €1.00

Do you agree with the odds? Would you back Montaigne? Or do you think your money would be better off invested elsewhere? Let us know in the comments.

Follow all of our Australia Eurovision 2020 news.

 

 

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Mark
Mark
7 months ago

I predict that after the votes are announced Mitch, Casey and Jack will be at the bottom of the scoreboard, not challenging for the win. The bookmakers are odd.

Jo.
Jo.
7 months ago

I this is their best song then Australia is in trouble this year

Polliu
Polliu
7 months ago
Reply to  Jo.

Trouble my ass! This is by far the strongest song in the national selections for me. I can’t stop listening to this after hearing it for the first time.

astro
astro
7 months ago

Would be happy if Montaigne, Jaguar or Vanessa won. Even Diana or Vidgen would be good. Pushing stars is good but will never win (completely outshone), Raw Stuff is great but just would not work in Eurovision.
iOTA is my dark horse. I’m not sure what to think but I doubt they will come last.
Casey is a darling but she will never win.
Tambo has the right thing going on but the chorus is so so bad.

Jay
Jay
7 months ago
Reply to  astro

Casey is a darling but she will never win… we heard that before when she was on Aussie Idol and she won! Never underestimate the dark horse!

Mark
Mark
7 months ago
Reply to  Jay

She’s not likeable

Shin
Shin
7 months ago

Judging by the fact that the song is written by the same duo that wrote sound of silence for dami im , i have high expectations from this song. Hope this sounds great live !!

Jay
Jay
7 months ago
Reply to  Shin

They also wrote the songs for Isaiah and Jess Mauboy.

Polegend Godgarina
7 months ago

it’s not a bad selection by any means tbh. i too like montaigne best, but i wouldn’t be mad if mitch tambo won.

Nicky91
Nicky91
7 months ago

Montaigne and it should be a internal selection anyway, hers is the only great song in this selection

cancel the NF and select Montaigne internally

Mark
Mark
7 months ago
Reply to  Nicky91

That’s not Democracy. Some of us what Jaguar Jonze to represent us at ESC

pkij
pkij
7 months ago

knowing wiwibloggs from last year at australia decides they will only interview montaigne pure because they love her song so much, give the other artists some shine 2

James
James
7 months ago

What are the odds of that?

Mako
Mako
7 months ago

The best songs for me are the ones of Mitch (epic and traditional), Jack (really emotional), Jordan-Ravi (so catchy) and Jaguar Jonze (would be really interesting to hear at Eurovision to refresh it).

But Montaigne’s song ?! No mates … that’s not the best.

Ashton Schier
Ashton Schier
7 months ago
Reply to  Mako

don’t know where ur taste went but I imagine its where my wig flew after hearing Montaigne’s absolutely fabulous song

Mako
Mako
7 months ago
Reply to  Ashton Schier

Thanks for considering my tastes as weird. You know, everybody doesn’t have the same tastes in terms of music appreciation. You should respect it instead of making fun of it.

And yeah, I don’t like Montaigne’s song. I’m feeling nothing when I’m listening to it.

Janine Ofsoski
Janine Ofsoski
7 months ago
Reply to  Ashton Schier

Haha yeah she’s a ripper!

Jay
Jay
7 months ago
Reply to  Mako

Agree with you! Don’t get the hype of montaigne’s song

Mako
Mako
7 months ago
Reply to  Jay

Thanks for your support

Nicky91
Nicky91
7 months ago
Reply to  Mako

Jack, lol how awful has he become since that ”got talent” days

Jordan’s song is like a UK you decide reject

Jaguar is too alternative

Montaigne is by far the best, and live she’ll sound even better i’m 100% sure of that, good luck in rotterdam girl

Mako
Mako
7 months ago
Reply to  Nicky91

Is that so important what Jack is since his participation in ‘Australia’s Got Talent’ ? Personally, idc. I appreciate his song over what he’s become.

Jordan’s song is better than all of the songs that entered the British NF.

Mark
Mark
7 months ago
Reply to  Mako

I like Montaigne’s song, but it’s far too safe for Eurovision. She’d pull a Mauboy.

Thomas
Thomas
7 months ago

This year with many top songs it will all come down to who performs the best live on the final night

Danny
Danny
7 months ago

Song actually sounds OK, normalish, decent, trendy packed but still has normal, understandable, singable lyrics. Hope it wins, seriously Australia has been sending SH! T songs, especially last year, Jesus Chris that thing, awful squealing.

Troy
Troy
7 months ago

Bet367 is an international company. Sportsbet on the other hand is Australian and may know the market better:

1 – Vanessa Amorosi – ‘Lessons of Love’ 2.85
2 – Montaigne – ‘Don’t Break Me’ 4.00
3 – Casey Donovan – ‘Proud’ 5.50
4 – Diana Rouvas – ‘Can We Make Heaven’ 6.50
5 – Mitch Tambo – ‘Together’ 7.25
6 – Jaguar Jonze – ‘Rabbit Hole’ 8.50
7 – Jack Vidgen – ‘I Am King I Am Queen’ 9.00
8 – Didirri – ‘Raw Stuff’ 11.00
9 – iOTA -‘Life’ 15.00
10 – Jordan-Ravi – ‘Pushing Stars’ 15.00

Mark
Mark
7 months ago
Reply to  Troy

We haven’t even seen them perform live. It’ll all change after the jury show.

Lucky Rotterdam
Lucky Rotterdam
7 months ago

Such complicated relationships nowadays. I miss Take Me To Your Heaven.

Matthew
Matthew
7 months ago

I would put my money on Didirri, its only 8th in the odds? It’s very much a dark horse.

Héctor
Héctor
7 months ago

So… is Mitch Tambo famous or something in Australia? Cuase his song is weak. I mean, one of the worst. The aboriginal language isn’t even new or original. Electric Fields work it better. Montaigne or Jaguar Jonze are the best options.

Pavel
Pavel
7 months ago
Reply to  Héctor

He’s great live, so the average song is on purpose (a vocal showcase).

Mark
Mark
7 months ago
Reply to  Pavel

Vocals don’t win Eurovision

John the Go
7 months ago
Reply to  Héctor

“The aboriginal language isn’t even new or original.” I think there are other reasons people might want to sing in other languages other than English.

Héctor
Héctor
7 months ago
Reply to  John the Go

You didn’t get me I think. I was referring to the reason behind him being 2nd fav for the win. Just saying that singing in that language shouldn’t be the reason of his success as it is nothing new or original, because I don’t think he should be that high. That’s all.

I’m open to any language if that is what you mean. It is better to think I’m narrow-minded I see.

Michael Novotny
Michael Novotny
7 months ago
Reply to  Héctor

They’re different languages because they don’t come from the same area btw. It’s a completely different linguistic and cultural identity. Aboriginals have many nations and languages, depending on geographic area. So when you say, ‘The Aboriginal Language’ and ‘Not new or original’ you’re quite wrong, as they’re completely different languages and nations between Electric Fields and Mitch Tambo. It’s like saying a Belgian person is the same as a Serbian. Big differences =]

Michael Novotny
Michael Novotny
7 months ago
Reply to  Héctor

“Electric Fields combine modern electric-soul music with Aboriginal culture and sing in Pitjantjatjara, Yankunytjatjara and English” That’s Western Australian desert languages that is next to intelligible with other Western Australian languages. Different culture to their eastern seaboard counterparts too. ‘The Gamilaraay, also rendered Kamilaroi, are an Indigenous Australian people whose lands extend from New South Wales to southern Queensland. They form one of the four largest indigenous nations in Australia.’ This is Mitch Tambo’s heritage. As you can see, way different. So I’d hestitate to say, ‘The Aboriginal Language’ and ‘The aboriginal language isn’t even new or original. Electric Fields… Read more »

DALTH
DALTH
7 months ago

Don’t break me is probably the best song I’ve heard in national selections this year. Will likely win if performed well.

Nicky91
Nicky91
7 months ago
Reply to  DALTH

Montaigne is live better than in studio 🙂

Mark
Mark
7 months ago
Reply to  DALTH

It’ll pull a Mauboy.

Hillbra
Hillbra
7 months ago

I love Didirri’s song and am sure it will provide a moment at AD, but Boys with Emotion won’t win this year. Jaguar Jonze is looking at 2-4 in the final but again too challenging to win. Vanessa looks to repeat the nostalgia vote given to Tania Doko last year. If Casey or Diana can’t win with the live performance appeal, Montaigne is a sure bet…

NickC
NickC
7 months ago

How will this be judged? Jry, televoting, or jury + televoting? If a jury will be used, do we know who will be in the jury?

Ashton Schier
Ashton Schier
7 months ago
Reply to  NickC

jury and televote. we don’t know all juries yet, but one of them is mans Zelmerlöw

Troy
Troy
7 months ago
Reply to  Ashton Schier

Kate Miller-Heidke will be on the jury too.

Ashton Schier
Ashton Schier
7 months ago
Reply to  Troy

oh cool

Nicky91
Nicky91
7 months ago
Reply to  Troy

she’ll appreciate goddess Montaigne her alternative bop, i’m disappointed if she doesn’t

Pavel
Pavel
7 months ago
Reply to  Nicky91

Jaguar Jonze is even more up Kate’s roots.