As we enter March, the list of Eurovision 2022 songs being released is growing week by week. Strong ballads are reaching hearts, dance songs are ready to make us move, and Latvia is turning everyone green! But amongst them all, Ukraine’s Kalush Orchestra have now emerged as the new favourite to win, rising to the top of the betting odds.
The Eurovision 2022 season is currently overshadowed by the horrible situation in Ukraine. With hundreds of thousands of people leaving their homes and more terrible news coming in day by day, it’s hard to predict where Europe will be by May. But, nonetheless, Eurovision is going ahead as planned, and Ukraine are now predicted to rise above it all.
Eurovision 2022 odds: Ukraine favourite to win (28 February)
Ukraine’s ride to Turin has been difficult to say the least. They changed their song after Vidbir 2022 winner Alina Pash withdrew her participation. Runner-up Kalush Orchestra then agreed to wave the Ukrainian flag in Italy.
Most recently, the country was invaded by neighbouring Russia. They wouldn’t even be the first country to compete in this situation, sadly. Bosnia and Herzegovina debuted in 1993 during the thick of the Bosnian War. The audience applauded when the Bosnian spokesperson, Dejan Zagorac, announced the results over a crackling phone line. But their song “Sva bol svijeta”, which referenced the ongoing war, only ended in 16th place.
Kalush Orchestra will represent Ukraine this year with the song “Stefania”. The band came second in Vidbir 2022 but won the televote in a landslide with nearly half of all the votes. “Stefania”, an ode to motherhood, was a popular song ahead of Vidbir and absolutely has the power to connect with a European audience.
Ukraine’s odds to win Eurovision 2022 have shortened in recent days and they now sit as low as 14/5 in the odds, making a Ukrainian victory far from unlikely. What will this mean for next year? Who can say at this point, but our thoughts are currently with the Ukrainian people.
Other Eurovision 2022 favourites
Second in the betting odds is Italy. Mahmood, Italy’s 2019 representative, and Blanco also won their national final in a landslide. “Brividi” is doing incredibly well on Spotify, hitting number five on the Spotify GLobal Top 50 chart, and also breaking the record for most streams in one day in their native Italy.
No country has won the contest on home soil since Ireland’s famous three-peat win in 1994. But Poland did achieve this in the Junior contest in 2019. Their odds have been fairly consistent at 37/13.
Third is Sweden. We’ve heard all the Melodifestivalen songs that are fighting it out for that ticket to Turin. Currently, the final is predicted to be a two-horse race between Cornelia Jakobs and Anders Bagge. The country’s odds have shortened to around 19/2 as Melfest has progressed, meaning the bookies aren’t ruling out a seventh Swedish victory.
Fourth is Greece. The one-time winner has yet to announce their song, which raises a lot of questions about their short odds. It could be that the bookies have high expectations of the 25-year-old singer Amanda Tenfjord, or perhaps they’ve had a glimpse at her song before we have. Either way, it looks good for the Hellenic Republic, as they sit at odds of 16/1.
Rounding out the top five is a tie between Norway and Switzerland, who both sit at 37/2. Switzerland have yet to announce anything about their entry. The bookies may be hyped due to the recent tide of Swiss success at Eurovision – the Alpine nation has reached the top four for two contests in a row. But, as with Greece, they may know something we don’t.
Norway, on the other hand, have announced their entry… kind of. Their song “Give That Wolf a Banana” is a popular dance track that has cracked number five on the Norwegian charts. Their singers, Subwoolfer, are still unknown. It’s a track with many fun gimmicks and a possibly interesting message about Covid-19 vaccination. It’ll be exciting to see if it resonates across Europe.
Eurovision 2022 odds: 28 February
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- Ukraine – 14/5
- Italy – 37/12
- Sweden – 19/2
- Greece – 16/1
- Norway – 37/2
- Switzerland – 37/2
- Poland – 19/1
- Finland – 26/1
- Australia – 27/1
- United Kingdom – 28/1
So what do you think? Will Ukraine achieve their third victory in Turin? Will Italy win for the second year in a row? Will a dark horse clinch the trophy? Let us know below!
I wonder. How much money took to the Ukrainian team to send them to Italy and participate to Eurovision? I really wonder, they have war to their country and still, they considered to send team to Eurovision? President Zelenski asks for money and weapons all the time from Europe. Why? So to sent team to Eurovision? I really believe that those money could be very useful to many of the people that lost their houses and beloved ones. I think that a decent country would NOT sent any team just for respect to their dead and WAR in their country.… Read more »
All in all, I’d say it was a wise investment, considering they won.
But nice of you for worrying about them. <3
Her name is Amanda Georgiadi Tenfjord.
For some time now, politics and Eurovision have been linked. A country that is in a crisis, and has the sympathies of Europe, wins Eurovision. There are other cases. The former Yugoslavia won before its breakup. The winning song was average, but there someone prepared to realize Yugoslavia’a disintegration and war. At the same Eurovision, Toto Cutugno won with the song “Unite Europe”. Strange, isn’t it. One year before Kosovo’s declaration of independence, Serbia won the Eurovision Song Contest. When Russia and Ukraine clashed over Crimea, Ukraine won the Eurovision Song Contest. When Italy suffered because of Covid-19, Italy won… Read more »
Estonia sends STEFAN
Ukraine: Hold my beer! Sends Stefania 🙂
Italy clearly stands out. When listening to the 20 entries of the Portuguese Festival da Cancao, my second favourite is Cubita with the song Uma Mensagem Tua.
I LOVE THIS SONG! Listen it’s hardly a stella year of songs so far and this is as deserving as any other in my opinion of taking the crown. It’s not like it would be trailing in the odds anyway. They have tons of genuine fans for this song. It has massive appeal. Rap has never won at Eurovision and I think the rap in this, although I don’t understand it, is skillfull and rhythmic and adds texture and I love it. If it wins it will be because of a televote win for sure and I’m there for it.… Read more »
If they don’t withdraw, I’d see them getting a similar jury score to GO-A last year… Which means they’d need a mammoth, Sobral style televote to win…not impossible, but quite a hurdle to overcome.
I really like the Ukrainian entry this year and it’s not a pity-like – I think the song and performance are great.
In addition to Ukraine, I also like Poland, Italy, Spain, Estonia, Czechia and Norway, and I wouldn’t mind if any of these won the contest.
Greetings from Serbia
Apart from Czech Republic, to which I would like to disagree, your music taste is just incredible.
When a song contest becomes a political forum ….
Anyone wanting to join me in downloading «We Don’t Wanna Put In» with Stephane & 3G (disqualified entry from Georgia 2009), making it rise on the charts? (Spotify , iTunes, etc)?
NO POLITIC IN THE ESC PLEASE
They will of course win hearts and every one of their appearance, from rehearsals to live performances will receive a lot of applauses. But I can’t see them winning with this song. It’s still a song contest. Although it will do very well with the public because of the situation, it won’t score high with juries.
If Ukraine make it, they will get 12 points from every country (except maybe Greece and Cyprus). I don’t think even the worst juries will be able to overturn that.
Enough with that bias against Greece and Cyprus, yes, we know it happens every year but lets not pretend that Romania and Moldova don’t exchange their points the same way each and every year in the contest, same goes for the points between the Scandinavian countries or (less occasionally but commonly enough) between Spain and Portugal.
Probably something is wrong. Because when you keep saying only about Greece and Cyprus for the 12 points, it either means that some of you are blind or I do not know. Many countries have been exchanging 12 points for many years, so why not say something about them? Please do not tell me that it does not happen often. I would like you to see all the Eurovision contests again and then we will talk again. Maybe, when this country stops giving their 12 points to its neighbor, Cyprus and Greece will probably stop
(iam sorry about my enlgish)
Well when Alina withdrew I told that I want kalush because I like a lot the song… But we mustn’t be exaggerated.. Stefania is not a top 5 material.. It is hardly a top 10 one I would say.. We won’t help Ukrainians this way by giving them sympathy votes… There are other ways.. In addition we will burden them with hosting such a big event in a time of a war (ofc they can deny hosting I’m just saying).. Moreover I don’t think that Stefania has a big chance in juries.. Maybe yes in televote but not in juries.
I wouldn’t mind tbh, although I think they will end up withdrawing.
I hope Ukraine doesn’t withdraw, But if they have to because they could be In such bad shape From the invasion, I wouldn’t blame them. Fighting off this invasion and then rebuilding and recovering might be more important than singing in an international contest.
This is the time for some broadcaster to step up and offer Ukrainian delegation their premises to prepare the staging, etc. Other participants could also agree to cover Ukraine’s ESC costs (participation fee, accomodation, etc.). While it’s a lot of money, if you divide it between, for example, 20 countries, it can be done.
The only issue could be that men are not allowed to leave Ukraine but I imagine there will be an exception for the ESC delegation.
rme ofc they are, they will ride the wave of pity votes all the way to the top. I lost almost all interest in this year’s contest. it’s pointless because ukraine will win so why even bother. it’s boring now, and worse they will only win because of virtue signaling not because they actually deserve it or would’ve won otherwise.
Stupid comment. Ukraine has consistently sent entries that have been popular. Ukraine has always made the final and secured a high televote. Kalush and Aline both had high odds because both entries were appealing. That was before the invasion happened last week. We are not talking about a country that has always floundered at the bottom. Even if Ukraine was to win and couldn’t host next year that wouldn’t be the first time this has happened. Even if the worst was to happen Ukraine will go down as one of the great Eurovision competitors with 2 victories and a further… Read more »
“Possibly interesting message about Covid-19 vaccination”. Can you please stop with this narrative thread? It is really inappropriate.
But if men between 18-60 cannot leave the country how can they enter
A general rule. There are case by case exceptions. For instance, if you’re a truck driver doing essential deliveries.
They already won once because of politics. Let’s not repeat that again.
Jamala’s song was the best by far and that’s why they won. Nobody wins ESC because of pity.
I don’t even expect Eurovision to happen this year. How can you celebrate with the current situation.
If Eurovision is canceled, are the Ukrainians any better off? Eurovision was also held during the war in Yugoslavia. It can also be an act of defiance, and it can offer a bit of hope and consolation.
No, is not about that. I just don’t think that people are in a mood to celebrate knowing of the atrocities happening to your neighbours in Europe. During Yugo war things were different. The competition was much smaller and people they didn’t have access to social media. Personally i lost interest lately because of the situation and also because the majority of the songs this year are awful to say the least.
1944 is a gem and the best act in 2016.
The cherry on top of a shambolic year- the UK bring out an actual credible piece of music…
Now you know we’re truly in hell, or the UK may have finally turned a new leaf.
Two things before you know happened it was only fifth and not risen now it suddenly first
Second there was a day at the odds that bulgaria was suddenly in the top five so yes i don’t take those odds serious
2021 was one of the best years ever in ESC, 2022 seems to aim to be very weak. A pity victory for Ukraine would be a bad idea, there are many people criticizing the Contest for being political and we don’t need them to have more reasons and evidences to prove their accusations.
Cyprus, Belgium, Greece and Sweden better deliver top tier songs because I don’t trust UK to pull something magnificent that redeems this year. I think Norway, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania deserve more appreciation.
2021 was definitely not one of the best years, but 2022 is definitely worse, at least for now.
Norway doesn’t, but Lithuania and Estonia definitely deserve more appreciation
I hope we get another nice song from Armenia and hope we get to see athena manoukian again.
Finally, someone who also believes that Latvia is being thrown under the bus (mainly because Aminata didn’t win Supernova!)
Last years ESC was the worst ever. There was only 1 good song, and that was France.
Montenegro has been up and down and all over the place on the betting exchange websites. It’s not typically a country that sees a lot of betting interest so there’s some level of hype going on.
Some betting websites still have Montenegro as 100/1 or longer. Not saying anyone should be betting on Podgorica 2023 but it might be worth investigating what odds you can get on a top 15 or even a top 10 finish…
I’m quite interested to see what I could get for “Montenegro to achieve their highest ever placing”.
I think it would be better if people didn’t risk developing a gambling problem. Stop caring that much, it’s dangerous.
very well said.
I apologise for writing a comment about betting odds in response to an article…about betting odds.
If Australia or San Marino won, I’d say the contest would probably end up in Baku the next year. Hopefully the EBU would know not to do that for Ukraine.
Why Baku? Surely the EBU would prefer an easier option like Belgium, Germany, the UK or France. The EBU has stated several times that Baku was the most challenging contest to date.
Or, they might even hold it in the city/country of their headquarters. (Geneva, Switzerland)
Yeah, I imagine the EBU would prefer those countries – but you can’t always get what you want. Most broadcasters will not want a big bill for no reason. The contest would go to whoever will pay for it.
In the case of San Marino, I’d rather they do it in San Marino proper (I think there’s at least one venue that can be worked on), or in a nearby Italian city with San Marino copaying and cohosting.
Rimini is a great option for San Marino. Whilst it’s an Italian city, San Marino have their own customs in Rimini International Airport. Also, it’s only a few minutes drive away.
Who would pay for that?
Everyone except San Marino.
Why should we do that? Can all broadcasters get that deal?
I’m sure everyone would make an exception for the smallest microstate in Eurovision.
It’s public money, we can’t afford to be that generous.
it’s unfortunate that they’re expected to get a symbolic win out of solidarity votes. there’s really no need to put any pressure on ua:pbc to host, also.
Host? The country is in ruins. I don’t think that anybody in this forum understands the situation. Ukraine will probably not host anything in the next 10 years at least. Are you little kids or something? Cities are being destroyed and you think they will consider hosting Eurovision next year.
I think that if Ukraine wins, either the runner-up, or a Big Five country will host. If the whole Europe is at peace at that point, which I immensely pray will be the case.
It’s actually not a bad song, and between all the slightly boring ballads it will probably stand out. If it’s utter garbage people won’t vote for it, even out of sympathy. So if they were to win, which if Eurovision were held tomorrow would surely happen, it wouldn’t be undeserved.
It should be noted that they were 3rd in the odds when they won and the top 3 have always been going back and forth as to who is #1, so it is likely that Italy will be back to #1 soon and after Sweden announces their winner, they’ll be #1 and itll go back and forth
depends on who wins in sweden. they’re that high in the odds because cornelia is expected to win
Eurovision 2022 win
Poland or Italy
anyone else noticing that the legend vladana is slowly rising in the odds? a montenegrin victory is on the horizon
I noticed, and ngl I hope she delivers on Friday, girl’s been hyped a lot
I listened to the playlist today of the already choose songs… The list is full of filling songs. Not a single quality hit in there. Until now, It’s definitely the most bland year.
Totally agree. I’ve listened more to the songs that never made it out of their countries selection processes, more than I have most of these songs that are going to Eurovision. Most definitely an underwhelming first half of reveals….
Indeed! It’s such a shame most countries didn’t choose their respective best entries 🙁
What about Spain? I bet SloMo will do a top-10 in Turin.
It is 11th but the main competition ( for example poland, australia and italy) all send male ballads it’s early to say but today there isn’t really much of competition in the female bop’s
Are you sure they gonna make it to Turin ? Even Jamala is a refugee now currently in Turkey’s Istanbul
Let’s hope this nightmare will end soon
Much love to Jamala, who is currently a refugee along with her children, and narrated her journey on Instagram. Also much love to Kalush Orchestra, I hope they make it to Turin and, if they can’t attend, I hope ESC treats them as if they’re there and shows the performance from the NF.
About the bets: That’s what they are: bets. They’re not votes, they’re just people putting money on what they think will win, which is different. Stefania does slap, though.
I hope Ukraine wins. I like the song, I want to unite Europe, and I want to punish Russia in every way possible. This would accomplish all of it.
omg it is racism russian people deserve respect. What about NATO countries who make war around the globe since 40 years ?
I love everything that the European Union and Nato stand for Russia is in the wrong
I totally agree with you I feel the same
Meh,Ukraine’s song is good but i prefer Italy’s…Eurovosion is a song contest and not a political one
Can’t wait for Greece, Switzerland, Cyprus and Belgium!!!
Don’r forget it’s bookies so they play around the current situation and hype and not the song’s chances to win.
Ukraine’s win in 2016 was completely different and it happened due to Australia not doing well in televoting and Russia not doing well in jury voting. The song was very emotional too.
I don’t understand how Greece is so high. Also, Switzerland has been quiet for so long, WIWIBLOGGS can you please check if there are any rumours?
To be fair they never said she couldnt win. She did have the 8th biggest chance to win. Polls are not predictions, they are there to tell you probability. Jamala had a very artistic emotional performance which made both juries and audience take note
Of couse its a symbolism and they wont win, let alone sweden coming third
Not sure about Ukraine, you want them to win so they won’t be able to afford to host it next year?
Also when people think Ukraine won‘t participate because of the war: it also didn‘t hinder the Balkan countries in the 90s
This! Also, keep in mind that now, thanks to ongoing Covid situation, they all have to send in back-up videos just in case. I read that this is being continued.
I think Cornelia Jakobs could win in Turin (if she wins Melodifestivalen).
I’m also very optimistic about Greece and Switzerland. However, Italy are very strong contenders.
The Netherlands sounds very promising !
That’s true! I’m sure she’ll surprise everyone.
Now watch Sweden ditching another possible eurovision winner 🙁
2010-keep on walking
2022-hold me closer (god forbid)
Like it or not the contest is political And I wouldn’t be surprised if Ukraine ends up winning again. It happened in the past it’s most likely happening now. If they manage to participate that is.
Why is the United Kingdom so high? Lol
Because the ranking is based on odds and there must be a lot of people betting on them.
I think it could be because theyre taking it incredibly seriously this year. Rumour has it that the BBC have given entire control over to TaP music to come up with the artist, song and concept.
Aside from that, probably a lot of drink lol.
Stefania and Kalush are one of the best entries so far. At least for me.
We need to see how internal selections will shake things but Ukraine deserves to be among the favourites regardless any politics.
People vote if they really like.
Looks like odd market like this overreact. People expect some solidarity voting on top of the usual voting (I mean, the song is good, Vidbir doesn’t disappoint) and boom it’s on the top. Note how Bulgaria hasn’t gone back to the bottom yet just because of a fake announcement from a hacker that lasted a few hours.
Is the UK so high because the bookies are from there? I can’t think of another explanation…
I understand that we want to show support for Ukraine and im all heart with them but i wouldn’t want the contest to turn political. Moreover it wouldn’t be fair for the other countries who worked hard for their song ang staging to find themselves earning less points than they should.
Please people vote for the song you like.
I think one year of unity under political circumstances won’t hurt anything.
But it would give credit to all the people who say that eurovision is political even tho they never watch it. Im afraid it would only hurt the image of the contest.
People can (and do) vote for whatever reason they like. It happens every year. If they want to show solidarity with Ukraine and vote for them to win, that’s their choice.
Well if Ukraine manages to get to the stage then maybe..
I don’t think they will win though. You need more than sympathy to win. Plus if the war continues how would they organize it?
The winner doesn’t necessarily need to hold the contest the next year. San Marino. Australia. It shouldn’t matter when juries and televoters decide who to vote for.
Absolutely. Not to mention that whoever do host will simply be seen as unworthy hosts due to not actual winning it..
Nice symbolism for the war effort, but last I checked this wasn’t the European Pity Contest. There are better songs.
The only possible winning song that i saw is ”Hold Me Closer” so far (many people think the same ) but i feel like Sweden will not choose her ..
I’m still waiting for the rest of the undecided/unreleased countries and have high hopes for The Netherlands , Switzerland and Greece.
oh yes the instrumental background was very my type.
Songs often win because of the Zeitgeist. The Zeitgeist now is solidarity with the Ukrainian people and the song is just full of Ukranian essence. So i don‘t see a problem with it winning the contest. Besides that the song is a banger. The ESC would probably then be hosted by someone like Germany
Well in Greece oddschecker is forbidden and blocked by the government :b
“Eurovision is not political..”
Other countries: ask for ban Russia
EBU: ban Russia (despite the fact that russian artists and people are against the war)
People: pity votes for Ukraine (like in 2016)
Where is the ESC that I used to love when it was only about artists and music and not politcal interest…?
Where was the ESC where countried didn’t invade their neighbours?
And what about NATO countries who make war around the world since 40-50 years ? People are droping fake tears beacause the war is in Europe and bc it is the naughty Russia who is concerned. Stop acting
When stranger coming and kill you all, you will never heard a single note. If being political can stop the stranger killing, why not? How important your non-political song contest?
Russia and Putin is invading, still you want be non political to the contest that bring country’s flag. Are you kidding or thought that’s only Ukraine’s business? It’s time to using any method to let PUTIN stop anything. How pity you living in a bubble.
Franco hostning Eurovision in 1969 with Spain resulting in a tied first place. There is a lot of mystery surrounding this time in esc. Many believed the UK would win in 1968 with the hit singer Cliff Richards and his “Congratulations”. But Francos Spain won as well. There have been many speculations about bought votes etc. but nothing is for certain.
To be honest, the majority of political and none political debacles have come from Russia when it comes to Eurovision. Ukraine also is a close second. Its a constant. Both Russia and Ukraine are like the naughty school children in class and have to constantly be told to behave. I believe any political issues should be sorted outside of the song contest. That’s why the contest exists in the first place. It was created to bring countries together post world war 2. Its always stood for unity and songs should always win on their own merits without the need of… Read more »
How’s the weather in Moscow?