His song “Occidentali’s Karma” has already topped the Italian FIMI Singles Chart and racked up 34 million views on YouTube. And now, as the wave of hype swells further still, Italy’s Francesco Gabbani finds himself as the odds-on favourite to win Eurovision 2017.
As of February 27 at 21:00 GMT, leading betting agencies William Hill and Betfred had the Italian singer sitting pretty with odds to win of 2/1.
Francesco’s song, which some mistake as silly and shallow, is actually built around a series of scientific and philosophical references. It cleverly spears man’s evolution from ape to Chanel shopper, questioning some of our less enviable dimensions. Fans, including many of us at wiwibloggs, have embraced the song musically. And Desmond Morris, the famed animal behaviourist who inspired the song, has also endorsed it intellectually.
“I’ve read the lyrics and I’ve been fascinated by their beauty, culture and richness of citations,” he recently told La Repubblica. “Never heard anything like this, perhaps only in Bob Dylan and John Lennon…the precision and sophistication of the lyrics is something I know because I met Lennon and we often talked about this art.”
The bookies currently have Sweden listed as second-favourite to win – despite the fact the country hasn’t even chosen its winner. Their high ranking stems, no doubt, from Sweden’s recent strength at the contest and, to some extent, the selection of songs in this year’s Melodifestivalen.
At the moment “Hold On” singer Nano is the favourite to win in Sweden (with his odds at 2/1 there), though the Swedish bookies have Melfest 2016 runner-up Wiktoria within striking distance (at 7/2).
Russia currently finds itself down as third favourite to win Eurovision 2017. Its historical strength in the contest, coupled with a rather impressive shortlist of artists, have given the bookies hope for success. But Russia isn’t alone. Its yet-to-be-revealed artist shares third position with Greece’s Demy, who is already known to be working with a dream team on her song and staging.
The rest of the Top 10 includes Australia, which will reveal its song and artist on March 7; Romania, whose selection includes a rather fantastic yodeller; Bulgaria, where Gery-Nikol remains prominent among the rumoured contenders; Estonia, which will choose between Kerli, Elina Born, and Laura & Koit (and some others) on March 4; Azerbaijan, where DiHaj will likely go for something edgy and electronic; and Armenia, which is fielding balladeer Artsvik.
Eurovision 2017 Odds to win (27 February 2017 at 21:00 GMT)
At the other end of the spectrum, a handful of acts currently share last place, all with odds of 100/1.
Among these are Austria’s Nathan Trent, whose song leaked on Spotify on Sunday evening; Albania’s Lindita Halimi, who will reveal her revamp of “Botë” in the weeks ahead; Germany’s Levinia, whose song still reminds us of Sia’s “Titanium”; Slovenia’s Omar Naber, who is serving West End musical theatre realness with “On My Way”; Malta’s Claudia Faniello, who stunned fans with her upset of Brooke Borg and Janice Mangion at the Malta Eurovision Song Contest; and Spain’s Manel Navarro, who faced the most controversial selection in recent memory.
What do you make of the odds? Is this another case of Sweden 2012 and Denmark 2013 when we knew the winner ages in advance? Let us know in the comments box below.
PORTUGAL!!! WILL WIN
No, it won’t win. It’s a decent enough song, but it’s a bit silly.
With a good live presentation, it can make the top 10.
Last years the songs less i liked was winning , i afraid this year , again , so , Italy go to win , sad,and then Spain is last because the corruption , please ,like only exist corruption in Spain and the rest from Europ is so clean and pure…
What is wrong with the word ethnic? Political correctness will destroy everything. If Sweden is calculate, will send Jon and Aninia, but they will send annoying kitten Wiktoria or that girl that has no scissors to cut her hair.
@Nadors, chill out dude, is it forbidden to say ”ethnic”? I’m from Serbia who often sends ”ethnic” entries and don’t find anything offensive in Denis’ statement.
@ Denis Listen… you have a few things to sort out. What a stupid thing to say about “ethnic”? We’re all ethnic, do you mean not blonde? And where would you put Loreen? “We love them but we don’t send them”. We? Them? I hope your sentences are just hurried and not thought enough, otherwise they just border racism. If you are a man you would realise this and apologise to people who want to feel part of a community that includes you. Otherwise you can ignore my message. There are a lot of people who think the same things… Read more »
@Charles, no we certainly prefer teenage boy who doesn’t know to sing or scary woman with dark log hair jumping on stage.
Denis, Maybe I explain myself wrong, but I didn’t say anything about how juries will vote. You mention Mariette as a winner contender for Eurovision, and I just said if Swedes don’t love her song I don’t think Europe (televote) will do so. Juries might vote for her yes.. but it’s not enough. As for Jon.. he was second in the televote in 2015 xD, many Swedes wanted him (despite being ethno.) Juries again I don’t care. I might be wrong but Jon will likely be Top 3 in your televote (but the new system is weird as we saw… Read more »
… so everybody wants a gorilla to win this …
… which zoo animals will everybody send next year shadowing any musical and lyric content everybody won’t even bother to care for? Russia? Greece? The usual desperate countries that want to win this every time at all costs just to fill the ego? Will it be a lion or an elephant? So many choices … but so little music authentic credibility …
Marc, on what basis would Eastern Countries love Jon henrik? Cause they too send ethnic entries? Not much to go by.. There’s nothing to suggest he will win the televote either.. To my knowledge Swedes would never send a ethno entry. We love them, we just won’t send them. We send entries we know will do well, not entries that might do well.We are calculating:) The juries won’t vote for something Swedes don’t like? Well, last year they went over the moon for Ace Wilder even though the audience didn’t like her at all. An din 2015 they voted for… Read more »
Denis,
Why do you think Mariette could win Esc? Europe is not gonna a love that Swedes don’t love.. She couldn’t get into Top 20 in her own country..
Jon can do really well with televote. Specially Eastern countries might love him a lot.
Sweden would shock Europe because it’s the opposite from what everybody is expecting from Sweden. (It was the only act my mother loved.. because of Sami.. and he’s so so likeable and charming.)
Sorry , but these books announced top 10 for Iceland and Norway .. so..
If Sweden wants to be a winner contender we should send either Wiktoria, Loreen or Mariette. maybe Robin.That will guarantee us top 3-5
The rest will give us lower top 10 results. Even Jon henrik. You all think a song in Sami/Swedish will do well?
This is a compilation of YouTube tops for selected songs.Hope you like.
https://youtu.be/DiJE2fOrYSk
Swedish press have already talked about Loreen’s “Statements” not being a Spotify song. That it probobly would do better on Youtube. And that’s exactly what happend! And that it’s probobly easier to win Eurovision with that song than Melodifestivalen.. People couldn’t be more correct! It’s not a typical song for Melodifestivalen or perhaps Esc in general.
Bella,
Mariette is not winning melfest. Loreen would need a huge support from juries (that would embarrasing for an Esc winner). Jon, is Top 3 material in Esc for sure 🙂
Anon,
Loreen is flopping on Spotify xD. So is Nano, who is performing worse than we thought. Both will need juries to win. Swedes televote will go to Wiktoria, Robin and Jon 😀
Italy has y’all shocked lmao. Let’s just be thankful that someone is topping the betting odds with a well-written, meaningful, catchy song sung entirely in Italian. But Bulgaria, Greece and Russia could still send the eventual winner, who knows? I wouldn’t count too much on Australia because if they flopped so hard in the televote last year with a completely perfect performance, I don’t see how they can’t do it. Many people just won’t vote for it because it’s not Europe. As for Armenia and Azerbaijan, I don’t think they have a chance – Azerbaijan is sending another Melfest reject… Read more »
@Andreas, Marc Sweden can win eurovision with Jon Henrik, Loreen and Mariette.They have manyvery good songs.I cant see Italy winning.The song its nothing special just a happy song.Requiem is the best so far.
@ William Lazarev : STOP IT WILLIAM !!!
Enough! You are like Glenn Close in ”Fatal attraction”. What do you want? You come back from 2016 to torment happy people? Is this what you want? Tell me, is this really what you want?
Marie : Thanks. Vladimir P: If we Send Wictoria, to Ukraine, we not going to the final.
Don’t worry. On Swedish iTunes chart: Loreen #2 and Nano #5..
STOP IT WILLIAM !!!
God, stop, Italy’s song is catchy but not a winner. I believe the winning entry is yet to be revealed.
So far:
1. France
2. Italy
3. Poland
4. Latvia
Rest meh….
@Kenny A fractional odd of 7/4 = A decimal odd of 2.75(1.75+1) Which means if you bet 1 dollars on it to win and if it wins you get back 1.75 dollars(also read as probability of event occuring is 1/2.75 or 36.36%) Another entry with fractional odd of 100/1 = A decimal odd of 101(100+1) Which means if you bet 1 dollar on it to win and if it wins you get 100 dollars back(read as pobabilty of event occurring is 1/101 or 0.99%) So if you bet correctly on higher odds you have higher payout but its probability is… Read more »
I can understand why some bookers have Russia and Greece in high places when we don’t know the songs yet, but how Sweden in second. I’ve listened to the songs and they are not to win the contest, for me they are not even for top 5
Spain is in last position because even the bookies know that it was too much corruption even by their standards.
Austria’s song is not bad…… last year no one was counting on Zoe and she came second with televote in her semi.
All pointless upset winners are last……Slovenia Malta Albania.
Germany’s song was the upset winner.With perfect life LevinIa(sic) would have been higher.
Lol at Wallie still calling Levina levinia and the girl with Jon Henrik as Anina instead of Aninia
Oops I meant Willie
place #4 for Greece? Based on what???
Expectations perhaps?? At the end we’re talking about Dimitris Kantopulous and Fokas Evangelinos who is goin’ to work with Demy.. Of course, they can be seem as real contenders to win the contest (I don’t expect it tho)
Can anyone else find this stupid with more than 50% of the songs not known yet??? place #4 for Greece? Based on what???
Love seing the product of a rig in last position. Ty Europe. All against corruption.
Poland!!!!
I will vote for Italy, that’s for sure
Sweden in second.. hm.. I still don’t know who’s going to represent us. I think Nano is not without competitors. And what will the international juries vote for? I still hope for Loreen..
Italy has all the ingredients of a winner and some!
Male pop song in a sea of female ballads? Check
Good lyrics? Check
A hook you can sing along to? Check
A country which has placed well recently? Check
Novelty? Check
I think it’s the best song Eurovision has seen in years and it WILL be a well deserved winner
Nano has to fix his high notes and vibrations tbh. Loreen’s already perfect!
This is a speculative odds listing. How can you list odds when some artists and songs havnt been released yet? Eg you might have a usually popular country with a shockingly bad song. Once all artists and tracks have been released and analysed, then we can start picking favourites #tooearly
@Cari trayun
Portugal has absolutely no chance of winning Eurovision.
I reckon if Bulgaria, Azerbaijan, Sweden, Australia or Armenia all come with a great song either of them might win-or even Portugal or Romania might have a chance at winning!
Sweden will have a chance to win with Loreen or Wictoria, but not with Nano.
@Tom
Italy will not win and I doubt RAI want to host ESC.
Hope Italy will win, but I am worried. It is said that Italy will do well in televote, but I’m not sure. Il Volo won the televote with opera. Do you know those talent shows where many participants choose to sing ‘Nessun Dorma’ and the audience is impressed? This is why Il Volo won the televote in my opinion. But Francesco Gabbani does not have that.
Don’t laugh, but I really think that the ape should have a t-shirt with the word Harambe. I know the lyrics, and I know that is not about Harambe, but THIS IS WAR.
@Ddraven4
Unfortunately, RTP doesn’t care about Eurovision, that’s why Festival Canção’s entries are pathetic.
I hope Italy not gonna Win. Its a awful Song. He cant sing.. He sounds like a car when he sing
As far as I can see now (…maybe not that far…) the victory in Kiev will be a matter between Francesco and Viktoria.
I don’t get the hype with Occidentali’s Karma and I personally don’t think this could win, the song is boring and forgettable. I do understand Italian and I don’t see anything special about Gabbani’s song.
If Sweden choose Nano they’ll have no chance at winning.
i’m still not comprending how odds work, like ‘100/4’ ’74/4’ecc.
Even without knowing the rest of the songs, I would give Italy a 70% chance of winning the televote. I’m not so sure about the jury vote. We’ll have to see what Sweden and Australia come up with.
If the juries deem Italy too wacky or gimmicky and put it below 5th place on average, I could see France as a potential winner by making Top 3 on both counts. But I suspect other songs will emerge with potential to win in this manner.
I would love if Italy won, however Georgia is my current favorite. Yet I would love it if Armenia won, maybe I could finally see it live!