In just ten days time, the first acts will take to the Eurovision 2017 stage. The bookmakers look like they’re already confident in who will come out on top though: Italy or Bulgaria.
Since our last update on March 22, we’ve seen nearly all acts perform at pre-parties around Europe. We’ve had revamps, reworkings and even Russia’s exit — but the bookies top two remains the same.
Italy’s Francesco Gabbani has continued to see his odds shorten, from a best of 15/8 a month ago to 11/8 as of April 20.
His closest rival remains 17 year old Kristian Kostov of Bulgaria. In March, he was just narrowly ahead of Sweden’s Robin Bengtsson in the odds.
Now, Kristian has moved clear from third-placed Robin and in fact has closed slightly on Francesco. Best odds on Kristian are 13/2 at Betfred, with many agencies having him as low as 5/1.
With Russia’s exit, it’s possible that bookies are guessing that Kristian may be next in line to receive the diaspora votes.
The top five countries remain the same, although with Portugal’s Salvador Sobral replacing Belgium’s Blanche in fourth place. Whilst both have drifted slightly, the bookmakers clearly take both as a threat for the win still.
Otherwise, very few countries have seen their odds shorten. Hungary’s Joci Papai stands out as one who has, with best odds of 50/1 at Stan James. Previously, Joci’s best odds were 80-1: still a long way out, but it’s positive signs for “Origo”.
Big fallers include Serbia and FYR Macedonia: previously, both traded around the 40-1 mark. Both now sit as far out as 200/1, again with Stan James. It’s worth nothing that many other bookmakers are keeping Tijana and Jana lower however, around the 25/1 to 33/1 region.
Eurovision 2017: Odds to win (19:00 CET, April 20)
What do you think of the bookmakers odds? Do you have a bet placed on anywhere? Shout out your thoughts on the wiwibloggs app, or in our comments section below!
Just cannot understand why Italy is favourite!
Go for the song, not the gimmick!
Anja Nissen from Denmark will be the unlikely hero that will take the crown on the night. The diamond ignored by her birth country will go on to steal the crown for another, her true motherland. A classic beauty with a beautiful voice, song and spirit. A beautiful sucess story in the making.
“The stone that the builders rejected… became the cornerstone”
Blanche, come on girl. You can do this! #Brussels2018 #hatersgonnahate
Oh the odds.
I am honestly awaiting for some dark horse to snatch the crown from that top 3.
Dunno and don’t care who it is…..I am just getting bored and would rather feel excited than bored with the voting segment.
Go Go Go Go FRANCE.
I want Italy to win but I would be fine with Bulgaria winning either, it is the one of strongest ballads in the contest. I still would not rule out Belgium, the song is very different and with great staging, she should be top 5 at least. Sweden will probably be up there but I don’t think it will win, while Portugal will do well to come top 10.
Why is Finland so low? This is a top 10 material!!
Also, I believe France will be top 5!
My ideal top 5:
Italy
France
Belgium
Bulgaria
Portugal
Italy: 100.000.000 views in youtube….!!!!!!!!
All the polls europe…Italy is first..!!!!!!
We have the winner!!!!!!Rome 2018!!!!!!!
Very good,very nice,very perfect….!!!!!!!!!
This is the best…!!!!!!!! ROME 2018….!!!!!!!!
Italy’s song is very ordinary.
Can’t see it winning!
There is always somebody that complains ‘wiwibloggs doesn’t write enough about my country, blah blah blah, why don’t you have articles about the artist from my country?’, but imho I think there is somebody that is completely ignored : O. Torvald. When is about Ukraine, is always about political scandal, about Jamala or about Ruslana, but never about O. Torvald. I guess that esc fans are so sure that nobody will want Ukraine to do well again (nevermind hosting) that many don’t give O. Torval a second thought. That being said, you can be sure that O. Torvald are very… Read more »
The problem with ranking Italy 1st in the odds is that we really won’t know how good everything looks until the jury rehearsal. However, I’d still be really surprised if any other country won this year. Italy has the whole package: proven capable live, huge fan favorite, incredible songwriting, and smart staging. The runner-up is far more of a question mark. I bet Bulgaria is quite good, but not sure about 2nd place yet. The downmarking of Serbia and Macedonia, unfortunately, makes a lot of sense. Macedonia has a really good song but got relegated to the semifinal death spot… Read more »
Bulgaria will be France of last year
ARe you idiot?
Im surprised that no one speaks about France. Alma deserves between 5th and 8th place.but im surprised that some people see her finish out of top 10 and aroubd top 15
Hey! France will be in top 10 for shore! Beautifull song,maybe one of the outsiders.
I bet that Bulgaria will flop. Overrated by the bookies.
Italy will flop… first with the juries who out of respect for good music will rank him lower. Second, Italy’s fan base is geographically very concentrated… there are 43 other countries in that competition and not that many of them will be excited to see a dancing ape and a parody on stage.
In ABC.es interview Salvador Sobre say he like song of Italy and Belgium this year .
I think that Belgium will be the suprise on stage:special effect,special background. She says nothing about whats comming. Watch out!!! She gonna blow you out of your chair. When Italy and Sweden fight for the bone,Belgium go with it,all alone..Very good songs for me,also: Ireland,Potugal,Finland,Iceland,Estonia,en FYR.
In ABC.es interview the Portuguese singer “Salvador Sobral” say he like song of Italy(Westener’Karma) and Belgium (citylight) this year .
“Amar Pelos Dois” love for both
“I do not feel favourite. The victory will go, so I’m told, to Italy or Belgium.”
“so I’m told”: Do you know the meaning? He just stated that he liked the Italian song for the lyrics, for being smart. As for the music and presentation, he included Italy in the block of songs that seem all the same: mainstream Eurovision. And tht’s true. I’m Italian and I recognize. This is in the antipodes of Gualazzi.
“Amor pelos Dios”is by far the best of all, belongs to a different League.
Let’s hope so
https://youtu.be/JoHBXcZBzfg She is great live
https://youtu.be/JoHBXcZBzfg She is great live..watch the video
BULGARIA is OVERRATED!!!
I totally agree! And I can’t understand why! The song is good, I guess, but it’s not something new or groundbreaking! As far as ballads go, I’ll take UK, Albania, Poland and even Finland anyday instead of Bulgaria!
I like Belarus, Bulgaria, Latvia
Thinking about Salvador makes me happy, sad and apprehensive. Heart problems are confirmed. He will be followed in Kiev by a cardiologist and will have an hospital on permanent alert. I hope that my fears and of many people do not materialize.
I wonder what would happen if he’s in the middle of the competition (during that week) in Kyiv and a heart donor turned up in Lisbon. Would they disqualify Portugal? Put a recorded performance? Let his sister compete instead of him, let her perform the song as a non-competing entry?
I do not know what is the maximum time they can maintain a vital organ capable of being donated .But I think everyone would understand if Salvador had to return to Lisbon quickly. What matters least in this case is the solution to the song in the contest.
Apparently that is already foreseen in the regulations. In case of a major reason a song can be performed by another artist. Media are reporting that RTP warned the EBU about this and Luisa Sobral would step in.
I love most of top15 song .but I wish “Parque das Nações-Meo Arena & FIL Lisboa ” host next year.its amazing!!
Aerial view of Parque das Nações-Meo Arena & FIL Center lisbon
https://youtu.be/kNNNiorusuE
Hmm, I hate how much emphasis is placed on historical results when making these odds.
I think Armenia, Australia, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Netherlands all are a bit overrated here.
I think Albania, Austria, Belarus, Moldova, Poland, San Marino all are a bit underrated.
I know, San Marino is clearly not winning but I still think it should be above Slovenia and Lithuania lol
Maybe strange and surprising, but I think The Netherlands will win this year. Italy second. Sweden third.
I am not even from The Netherlands. But I believe in a surprise winner and I think it will be them.
We’ll see!
Eurovision is coming….yeah!!
Maybe strange andere surprising, but I think The Netherlands will win this year. Italy second. Sweden third.
I am not even from The Netherlands. But I believe in alle surprise winner and I think it will be them.
We’ll see!
Eurovision is coming….yeah!!
The Netherlands?? Seriously? the best they could do is top 10 but they ain’t gonna win.
My man Salvador is killing it. Like some euro fans would say…slay!
I would love to see Bulgaria win, since “Beautiful Mess” is my top favorite. But I’d also like Belgium or France to snatch the victory, or even a surprise winner like Finland or UK.
After Russia last year, it is very well possible for Italy not to win.
One more thing: The most overrated country by the bookies (in my opinion) is definitely Australia.
Totally agree about Australia, I even would argue they are a borderline qualifier this year and easily bottom 10 if they qualify. Not seeing much support for it.
Yeah, Australia will pull an Israel 2016.
Weak?!
https://youtu.be/JoHBXcZBzfg
No surprises at the top (although I’m still doubtful of Bulgaria)
How is Germany not scrapping rock bottom though?
They’re automatically in the final, that alone gives Germany an advantage over other countries.
I think that the situation is similar to ESC 2011 and like Azerbaijan, Bulgaria will win.
More like 2013, where Denmark was a strong leader from the time the last songs were revealed until they went below 1-1 after rehearsals. If the Italian rehearsals show good staging, I see the same happening this year.
I don’t understand how Denmark was so heavily favored to win in 2013. The prediction was correct, but there were many other strong acts that year, how could you be so sure who would win?
Emmelie was signed to a major label and promoted incessantly. I was spammed with Only Teardrops on YouTube (I’m from Italy) and I didn’t follow the pre-selections back then so her song was the only one I knew before the contest. Also, the juries helped a lot: for example, in Italy she was 6th in televote but she got 12 points. Her marketing team lead her to victory, but it was a deserved one.
Portugal and Denmark are overrated. I think France, Italy or Bulgaria will win.
Portugal is climbing… I knew it! Well… At least I hoped for this!
Puzzle pieces are coming togehter. And I hope they stay just like that… Italy vs Portugal is my day dream… Then: whatever happens… Panta rei.
I’m only afraid of Bulgaria, as much as I really can’t understand why such a cold and emotionally dead song can be taken as a masterpiece… Mah!
Go Francesco, go Salvador!
Il GGG – Il Grande Gabbani Gentile 🙂
Guys, don’t forget that Bulgaria is preparing a great staging! I think the year is open for a winner and the whole package will decide who will get the trophy! The live performance and the staging are the most important 2 things. I think that Italy’s stage won’t be different from the stage in San Remo and that will be a problem .
Why fix what’s not broken? Italy’s staging is part of the reason why the song is so successful. Keeping it won’t be a problem, as not many people watch the national selections anyway.
Oh yeeeeah, Loreen and Mans didn’t change anything, so was it a problem?
This year will be like 2014, I think there are 2 countries that no one are counting on as winning will get amazing staging and surprise everyone because no one were talking about them, I’d love to see UK high up again but don’t think it will happen, I can see Iceland, Serbia and Czech Republic possibly doing well this year. I just hope Italy or Sweden don’t win
These delusional OFHs trying to pretend this is a 2014 case… bless your heart, hennies.
Salvador is the most magnetic and genial singer by far of all in this edition. From Iceland to the Philippines, the attraction for this guy is impressive. He recorded a 2-minute video in a bathroom in Madrid (Facebook) that soon reached 112K Views.
https://www.facebook.com/salvadorsobralmusic/videos/1854993428106851/
OMG. Thank you. This is an Indian raga that comes out of nowhere, absolutely of genius. I love this guy.
This is a very open year, I rteally can’t predict who will win. I predict bottom ten in juries for Romania, Poland and Greece, and for them a top 10 in televoting. Around seventh with juries for The Netherlands but around 18th with televoting. Hungary and Denmark will do better then expected, and Portugal and Latvia will only be around 20th. I believe the top 5 will 100% contain Italy, Bulgaria and Sweden (the latter two winning their semi’s) and the other two spots are open, but I believe that Belgium could take one of them with a good staging.… Read more »
No way Portugal can reach top 10.That song barely deserves to qualify….
A matter of opinion.
But those who are betting their own money do not agree with you. And look that Portugal did not even promote their song. Eurovision needed something like that. Salvador appeared like a breath of fresh air with its magical simplicity.
^ Yes, he is different than the rest for sure.His performance is seriously disturbing and his song puts me to bed.And people who bet on him are mostly from Portugal.
No, this is a completely false fake. In Portugal it is forbidden by law to bet on Internet since 2015. Any attempt to bet results in a PROHIBITION message with notice from the authorities. O site a que pretende aceder encontra-se bloqueado na sequência de cumprimento de notificação de Entidade Reguladora (SRIJ – Serviço de Regulação e Inspeção de Jogos), nos termos do DL nº 66/2015, de 29/04. (Translation) The site to which you want to access is blocked following compliance with notification of Regulatory Entity (SRIJ – Regulation and Inspection Service of Games), under the terms of DL nº… Read more »
*Sorry. Correction: “false news”
Ignorant. Your pop agenda makes you completly dumb. More respect for an authentic and wonderful song!
^ I love non mainstream songs.Jamala was my favorite last year and is my favorite winner of all time, in case you didn’t know and she was definitely not a pop act.Being different does not mean having quality.I tell you that Salvador won’t win.Qualify-maybe.Win-no way.
The betting experts who are interviewed on EscTips are unanimous: Italy and Portugal will fight for victory. And Salvador has everything to capture the momentum in Kiev!
He has everything to come 2nd, the competition for first place is non-existent. Also I wouldn’t expect a song like Amar pelos dois to slay the televote. But it’d be fantastic if the top 2 were two songs not in English!
No competition for first place… That has yet to be seen. No one saw Ukraine winning last year, both bookies and polls were showing Russia and France competing for 1st place. Don’t get me wrong, I like the Italian entry but I would love to see Portugal win the whole thing. If last year taugh us anything is that it ain’t over until the fat lady sings!
I would love Portugal to win, but the lyrics will not be understood by most people… so they will not understand the song. A pity, because the lyrics are pure poetry and match the minimalistic production and Salvador’s understated performance. The song and vocals, although pleasant, will not stand on their own, unfortunately.
Ukraine was second in the odds last year, (after the rehearsals) so it wasn’t as unexpected victory.
Lmao Russia are out and they’re still ahead of other countries.
Am I blind? Where is Macedonia?
Sorry. I’ve just looking for the flags, not names and I didn’t see that Macedonian Flag didn’t load…
Search in Greece, you will find it 😉
The bets will feel an earthquake on May 9 with the presentation of #Salvadorable. Just wait to see!
Yes, like Jamala in 2016. But I believe that the impact with Salvador will be greater … It stands out completely from ALL the others. It’s another dimension.
As far as is known, EBU is preparing for him a presentation totally different from the others.
I will dance alone
I don’t think people should count out the UK now just yet, I think she’s the dark horse of the competition this year and also Spain isnt really a contender but, it won’t finish dead last just wait until the rehearsals and the staging.
P.S Belgium, Australia, Hungary, UK and Serbia for Top 5
I think the U.K. will finish 11th-15th overall, which for them would be a great ranking.
I really don’t get the appeal of Bulgaria or Belgium.They both sound like any generic rubbish you’d hear on the radio these days. I personally find that drum beat thing in Beautiful Mess to be pretty annoying to listen to. Alas they’ll both probably do well.
Italy and Sweden will do well because they have a gimmick in their performance (the gorilla and treadmills respectively) so they’re guaranteed to score points on that basis alone. Regardless of how good the songs are, people will vote for the gorilla and the treadmills. But it’s a competition! Europe will decide 🙂
Yeah, because the critics from all over Europe only talked about the gorilla when praising the Italian song. Because it’s thanks to the gorilla it charted in so many countries’ iTunes top 100s. Nice try, EurovisionFan2005.
Well Polegend Godgarina, if you take a look back through my comment again you’ll see that I didn’t mention anything about the gorilla being to do with how people had already reacted to the song.
I was simply saying people will be influenced by it when they vote in the final after watching the performance. A lot of people who watch the grand final don’t follow the national final shows in each country and so they vote on what they see on the night. But I’m not going to argue with you. May the best song win…
I would be happy if Sweden or bulgaria and Belgium won..!
Italy has to prove to me that the song can be made contemporary on stage
As contemporary as the Neolithic man? 😉
Ireland has climbed to 16th!!! Really impressed with that. I think it’s due to the promotion, and just proof that promo helps.
The winner will more than likely come from the Top 5 though. Hoping for Italy or Belgium. However, I have a growing feeling that we will have a surprise winner this year, like Azerbaijan in 2011 or Austria in 2014. Someone who is outside the betting up until Eurovision week, then surprises us all. Possible surprise winners: Australia, Hungary, Finland, France maybe even Ireland given the right staging.
Ahh, Belgium. I wonder if other people will get spooked if they suddenly look to the singer and realize it is a woman and not a man like they had thought from the vocals…
@Polegend Godgarina Dami’s performance was was like a different song compared to the studio version. Have the rehearsals started? I don’t think it was until the rehearsals that Australia and Ukraine climbed the odds. Ukraine was rather left behind iirc too.
Surprised at how HIGH Denmark, Germany and Ukraine are, and at how LOW Latvia, Belarus, and Albania. Shouldn’t Albania be around the same since they are both peace/war anthems and ballads and both in the first half of SF1? And Latvia is closing SF1, that should account for higher odds. They are going to have a wonderfully crazy visually live performance.
Anything below 20/1 is irrelevant for the bookies anyway as it means that the winning chances are non-existent for those songs
Ok, Kristian is not Russian, he has a Russian background. The assumption is that he has had enough airtime and favorable exposure to Russian audiences to garner votes. This is not impacted much by Russia’s absence from the contest. I don’t see any country acting out of spite or whatever you wanna call it. Russia’s song was mediocre at best to begin with and was not going to do much either way. Kristian’s song is well produced and polished. It’s a very calculated move to enter with a song like this as Eurovision voters and especially the jury members have… Read more »
The only top place I can guess for Bulgaria – 1st or 2nd with juries. It’s hard to stay without serious side-support, proven by themselves.
I thi k, what happen to Italy. Havnt see anything fir many houer
Italy at 1/1… Alexander Rybak is SHOOK
Aram mp3 was also at 1/1… but then he came 4th.
In a year with no clear favorite, yeah. This is 2009/2012 all over again.
At what point was Aram mp3 1/1 in 2014? I wasn’t following the contest closely that year.
March – April
http://wiwibloggs.com/2014/03/28/eurovision-odds-armenia-denmark/44470/
@Anna Aram mp3 did not stay on 1/1 for that long as Italy has this year.
@Polegend Godgarina In 2009 Alexander Rybak was the clear winner! and also in 2012 Loreen was the clear winner!
Aram was indeed the hot favorite going into the 2014 contest (I honestly didn’t get the hype over that song), but it seemed like bad rehearsals combined with some badly-timed statements against Conchita (who, like the Common Linnets, didn’t have a prayer going in according to the bookies) dropped his odds like a rock. I still don’t get how he finished in 4th place overall because his live performance lacked spark
Will be interesting to see if it manages to pass Russia’s 4/7 from last year.
I am really surprised about Portugal’s performance in the betting odds. I would have thought that the betting community would take the historical performance strongly into account, as well as geographic and cultural voting patterns. For both Portugal is clearly not the one to bet on. Having said that, I think for Portugal it’s already a great victory to be considered at this stage as a possible contender after decades of being the underdog. I guess, after all it’s really the quality and uniqueness of the song that makes the difference for the betting community.
Bulgaria will have problem if in final we have with Australa and Ireland. Then vote for young singer with ballad will split on 3 countries. Better chance for Bulgaria to Australia and Ireland stay in semi.
Italy will have same problem with Romania, Sweden even Moldova. Young voters will be vote more for Romania and Sweden then Italy.
romania or moldova lol let me laugh, definitely you have a problem
I believe that younger viewers will vote more for Romania then Italy (only if they vote only because gorilla for Italy). Female from 16 to 25 years, wili more vote for Sweden than Italy.
Bulgaria’s strength is not coming from teenagers voting for their peer, cute guy, etc. The vote for it will come because of the whole package (vocals, emotional strength, fans gathered before the final) and cimenatographic approach to the staging, assuming they pull that right.
I would agree with you on the ’emotional strength’ thing, if the song was sung by someone at least 27 years old! What does a 17 years old boy know about love?! And the fact that he looks 13 won’t help! I’m sorry, I can’t get over this, and the whole thing feels extremely fake to me… But, I love Bulgaria in ESC and I hope he will do well, but I would be disappointed if he wins…
It is funny how some people are so acutely aware of the need of diversity, fair play or inclusion when it is a question of their own differences from what is mainstream, standard or just rewarded in our very power driven society. Yet, when they are faced with difference, or something unexpected or unconventional, they do exactly what they condemn others for doing to them… In the case with Kristian, he is already a brilliant performer–vocally and emotionally he is more mature than at least half of the performers this year. This is a big part of why he is… Read more »
How many times I’ve had to tell people that Kristian’s song isn’t about love… Are people really that bad at reading comprehension? You do realize that it’s about a confused kid that lives in a world filled with wars and conflicts? That’s the entire point why they didn’t write this to a 27 year old.
or 67 old
Romania??? Lmao, are you kidding me?
I like very much the shape of Francesco’s lips in this picture
Roughly the shape of Bulgaria. He’s ready to eat it along with the rest of Europe.