Russia Would Have Placed 2nd if Every Act had Played Last

An evaluation of the voting pattern in the final showed a clear advantage to playing late in the contest. That brings up the question, what would the order be if we adjust for the play order advantage.

I adjusted the combined results using the formula “final_score – (26 – draw_order) * 0.316”. This does not level the trend line of draw order vs. final score. It just reduces it to the trend line for the jury vote. The jury is probably also slightly influenced by draw order but it is safe to say that the adjustment should be at least this amount.

So what happens with this adjustment? The countries most hurt were Russia (would have been 2nd), Malta (would have been 5th), & Moldova (would have been 7th). The big winner was Italy (would have been 11th).

Is there a way to mitigate the impact of draw order? Yes! (and there’s also better ways to structure the voting.)