During rehearsals for the first semi-final of Eurovision 2021, there were some significant changes to the odds on the Smarkets prediction markets. Here are the key changes…
All betting odds, or prices, can be converted into an implied chance (%) of something happening and this is how we convey odds (for example 3/1 = 25% implied probability).
Eurovision 2021: Semi-Final 1 odds to qualify following rehearsals
Biggest Rises
Ukraine
Qualification chance: 92% (+17) / Final win chance: 3% (+2)
You may remember that I argued in my first article for Wiwibloggs last month that a 68% qualification chance for Ukraine was too low, and Go_A demonstrated why that was the case during their rehearsals, surging to 92% in the process. While ‘Shum’ may potentially be too dark and esoteric for some to win the contest, Go_A are more than capable of achieving a good result for Ukraine in the final.
Russia
Qualification chance: 87% (+16) / Final win chance: 1% (-)
I would like to issue a short statement: I was wrong. Russia did exactly what they needed to do for these rehearsals — their staging hits all the right notes for the song, with Manizha’s mechanical dress being an ingenious touch. The dress is playful and a novelty but it also carries a serious message about the potentially oppressive and restrictive nature of tradition, which Manizha breaks free from. While 87% still looks far too high for me, Russia’s chances of qualification have certainly risen significantly since rehearsals started.
Cyprus
Qualification chance: 96% (+11) / Final win chance: 4% (+2)
Here’s the thing about ‘El Diablo’: has it been done before? Yes. But is it done well? Also yes. Elena Tsagrinou’s polished performance has clearly made an impression on traders, with Cyprus now up to 7th place in the outright Eurovision winner market.
Biggest Falls
Romania
Qualification chance: 59% (-19) / Final win chance: 0.4% (-1.3)
Romania’s odds of qualifying on the Smarkets exchange have fallen further than any other country in this semi-final. You can see what they’ve tried to go for in their performance but it just doesn’t quite work. Roxen’s outfit is questionable (not looking too dissimilar to the cosy clothes one might wear for a long-haul flight) and she appears to struggle with her vocals in parts during her interpretive dancing. It’s disappointing to see as this song had potential.
Azerbaijan
Qualification chance: 60% (-9) / Final win chance: 0.2% (-0.2)
Azerbaijan is one of the numerous entries this year following the new formula of one singer with four backing dancers, but unfortunately for Azerbaijan, there are other entries (e.g. Malta and Cyprus) doing it better. I can’t quite get my head around having a Middle-Eastern-inspired sound and staging for a song about someone who spent most of their life in Western Europe. It worked for ‘Cleopatra’ last year, but you can’t just swap out one historical figure whose name fits into a catchy refrain for another and expect the same results. Perhaps I’m being too harsh, but it seems many are under the impression that this is a bit of a Eurovision-by-the-numbers production from Azerbaijan, and their qualification chances have fallen accordingly. Efendi is also not helped by the strength of Russia and Ukraine’s stage shows, meaning ‘Mata Hari’ will face stiff competition for points among Azerbaijan’s usual voting bloc. That said, don’t write this off just yet.
Malta
Qualification chance: 97% (-1) / Final win chance: 22% (-2)
Malta manages to fit into both the biggest falls *and rises* in the prediction markets. While their qualification prospects aren’t in doubt, after Destiny’s first rehearsal there was a significant decline in Malta’s price on the final winner market and she lost her place at the top of the odds for the first time. The staging and costuming were the culprits: the heavy use of monochromatic bright pink staging for ‘Je me casse’ felt understated and didn’t seem to suit the song, and Destiny’s pink costume didn’t really work either. Following the biggest debate over the colour of a dress since the infamous black and blue one, this morning Destiny changed to silver for her second rehearsal and the delegation made some changes to the staging, and Malta climbed back on top.
Best Bets
Belgium, to qualify
At 12th in the qualification odds, Hooverphonic really are in The Wrong Place. Lead singer Geike delivers Belgium’s entry flawlessly, and their dark and moody staging helps the track stand out enormously in a sea of brightly coloured pop. My one worry is that the backdrop of Geike’s face might come across a little bit Blair Witch Project to some, but I’m hoping this won’t be the case in the final performance. As I said before, though, the juries should lap this up and Hooverphonic could surprise a lot of people. For this reason, Belgium to qualify (currently trading around 50%) is my best bet for this semi-final.
Check out all of Smarkets’ Eurovision odds here
Photo: Thomas Hanses (EBU)
So you think Russia Ukraine Azerbaidjan and Italy are quality no way
My prediction to qualify 1st semifinal
Cyprus
Lithuania
Ukraine
Russia
Malta
Croatia
Belgium
Ireland
Norway
North Macedonia
Azerbaijan qualifying over Ireland and Belgium is a crime against music. I mean that could happen, but most of Europe isn’t deaf.
You talk as if you had no idea this was Eurovision Song Contest, especially post-2000 Eurovision…
Does one need to say more??
Azerbaijan is 1000X better than both Belgium and Ireland combined.
Lol what ever helps you sleep at night.
All Europe was deaf when the chicken song won.
These are not the most widely read odds. The larger odds have Israel qualifying over Azerbaijan. Romania and Norway are tanking. If Belgium qualifies it will be above one of these two.
In my prediction Russia or Ukraine will win this semi (I dont like both entries) for several reasons…
Not a winning chance for Malta or Cyprus.
Well your prediction is taking into account only televote and not jury so it will not happen.
Belgium is going to the final.
My honest opinion on their chances of qualifying from this SF1:
UKRAINE – 100% (+)
LITHUANIA – 100% ()
RUSSIA – 100% (+)
CYPRUS – 95% (+)
MALTA – 90% (-)
SWEDEN – 85% (-)
ROMANIA – 60% (-)
NORWAY – 60% ()
AZERBAIJAN – 55% (-)
IRELAND – 50% (-)
——————————-
CROATIA – 50% (+)
BELGIUM – 45% ()
AUSTRALIA 45% ()
SLOVENIA – 30% (+)
ISRAEL – 25% (-)
NORTH MACEDONIA – 0% ()
That would make up my prediction too.
Thats actually a really good and accurate prediction.
Aren’t you the one that had Spain as a top 5?
6th
If you want to say something say it straight.
You are one of those then, those who have Croatia or/and Israel up in your top, right?
My predictions following the rehearsals: 16) North Macedonia (The juries might rank this mostly in 15th place, but the tele I believe will give this 0 points actually) 15) Australia (This hurts so bad, but I can’t see Australia getting many points, at least from the tele, unless they get sympathy votes) Disclaimer: from 14th to 6th place things are very shaky so things are pretty open for anyone on the list below: 14) Slovenia (This also hurts, but Slovenia can reach an 8th place in juries, but on tele they will also be really low, mostly because of the… Read more »
A really good analysis
I have almost all the same.
Such ugly comment, its only eurovision, be sportive, why you happy that Sweden falling in the odds?? Childish
I think people are annoyed that the jury always love Sweden, when the same is not reflected in the televote eg Benjamin Ingrosso
Ingrosso was the exception rather than rule. Most years Sweden has reached top 10 in votes too proving that it isnt only juries liking the songs. Yet every basher goes around mentioning that year as if Sweden gets low votes every year. So why not give some credit and stop acting as if we have no merit?
Yes these hateful comments by immature people put me completely off. Not liking a particular entry does not mean one needs to trash and put it down.
I think Australia and North Macedonia are sure NQ, but Ireland, Belgium or Slovenia could all surprise. Slovenia is especially underrrated each year, I remember both Lea Sirk and Tinkara Kovac were at the bottom in the betting odds and sure NQ, but both surprised and qualified. I also think that Russia, Ukraine, Croatia and Macedonia will like and appreciate the Christian message, both the juries and televote. We’ll see…
The rest countries of the semi 1 are islamic ones ?
No, but the mentioned countries are extremely religious and Russia and Ukraine hate the whole LGBT and want more traditional values in Eurovision. They’re gonna love Amen; at least the juries, who will also downvote Sweden and Australia.
I am Croatian and I can assure you that people who watch eurovision don’t give a F about religion. But we will give Slovenia 5 or 6 points because they are like a sibling we hate but it’s still our sibling.
educate yourself before saying smt stupid, Ukraine is not Russia, we don’t hate lgbt, we don’t have anti lgbt laws like Russia, but we have lgbt prides in many cities every year,many lgbt events and festivals, we have laws which ban to discriminate people bc of their sexual orientation, color skin and etc., young generation is open minded and much more free and definitely not into traditional values
and we’re not that religious, maybe only part of old generation
Preach sister
Comments like I hope Sweden fails is reason why there are no Swedes left here. What do you expect us to feel when we read that? Sweden competes on the same rules as others, we should be judged on same basis. We take nothing for granted, nothing is 100% sure. What happens happen. Its like Swedish entries have no merit and talent on their own, an easy target to mock and then think we should accept..
Honestly, I’d be surprised if Manizha qualified. Sure, it’s Russia after all. But this year they are missing some of their most loyal voting partners and the song itself definitely isn’t everyone’s cup of tea.
There’s gonna be a lot of people that love it though (and are gonna vote for it).
Yep, we’ll have to wait and see. And in the end a few who love it might be better than lots who like it.
But they really went for a bold and risky choice here. It doesn’t get more ‘special interest’ than this.
Manizha is likely to qualify and she deserves it both from technical and sympathy votes.
My top 10
Azerbaijan
Ukraine
Russia
Croatia
Cyprus
Malta
Norway
Sweden
Lithuania
Slovenia
My predictions (in a random order) :
Lithuania
Russia
Sweden
Cyprus
Croatia
Belgium
Romania
Azerbaijan
Ukraine
Malta
Note: This isn’t necessarily who I want to qualify. This is who I think will qualify!
And I hope Belgium qualifies for the final!
This might very well happen!
Can we please swap Australia and Ireland with Sweden and Norway for the final.
ireland, no
australia i’d be fine with swapping
Croatia really skyrocketed from 10th place to 7th place in Qualification Bets, and from 21st to 16th place overall. I think that’s something!
That is a top 10 placement in the final.
If there’s any justice, Sweden shouldn’t qualify this year. The song is too generic and bland. For its own good, Sweden must stay in the semi.
too generic and bland?
um duh, isn’t it eurovision we’re watching?
Mata Hari was an exotic dancer, so there are such motives
If Norway qualified, we will loose good entries, like Belgium, Israel, Australia and Ireland. I’m sorry, but it won’t be fair if it happens, tbh.
If the bookies are right, I’ll lose all my favourite entries in the semis (Czech Republic, Belgium, Ireland). 🙁
Oh funny ! My top 2 is ireland and czech republic haha. I m sure they can both make it (;
I sooo hope you’re right! Fingers crossed! I think they really deserve it. Especially Lesley Roy, since she also appears to be a genuinely nice person.
Norway is really not my cup of tea this year but I think they have a very decent chance of qualifying. That being said, it’s definitely destined for the right side of the scoreboard.
I hope Wiwibloggs is getting a good deal for all these Smarkets advertisements.
Honestly think if Ireland doesn’t qualify I’ll sit in my room and cry listening to “Save your tears” by the Weeknd.
Mascara for added dramatic effect.
The one year we actually try, we still ain’t qualifying. If we can’t do well when we try, we may as well withdraw.
Tired seeing us NQ, seeing voters and bookies underrate us, always loosing out when we actually try (2009, 2013, 2015, and now probably 2021).
Can’t see RTÉ funding participation much longer when it’s the same result each time.
Can’t understand the dislikes. Really people? You can’t empathize with someone losing his/her own favorite in the semis? I am going to be honest, I think Ireland will be a borderline NQ, because Lesley’s vocals are too shake, but the staging will be enough to avoid a bottom placement. Unfortunately, it’s not just a matter of trying to have the best package, there are too many factors to take into account. If you think about it, qualification also depends on who is voting in your SF, beacuse different countries have different tastes and that may hraivily impact on your qualification… Read more »
Haha thanks…well I won’t actually be crying in my room lol I was joking/being dramatic though I will be disappointed though and from talking with people in my country and those involved in RTÉ, they are starting to question involvement, so I was hoping a qualification could turn things around a bit.
But honestly though, nice words and thanks
I hope Ireland won’t lose interest, ’cause I genuinely love every studio version from Ireland since 2013, well except 2020. Lesley is not a sure qualifier in my book, but someone as to be out and considering song appeal, vocals and staging, I guess she may be one of the 6 NQs with Slovenia and Macedonia are sure NQs too. Romania will join them, if Roxen doesn’t improve her vocals and stage presence, although Amnesia is really high in my ranking. I would gladly have Croatia out and Romania and Ireland in, but it seems unlikely to me.
Ireland will qualify! Maps is a good song, Lesley is giving her all, and the staging is one of the most interesting we’ll see this year—she shouldn’t be so underrated or such an underdog.
Lesley seems like an amazing person! Tbh, her song is not my cup of tea, but she deserves to qualify!
In the end there will always be 6 entries that won’t make it to the final unfortunately and lets assume they all tried to reach that final. Hope’s not lost for any entry this year except for north macedonia I think.
Also it’s not like the last good result is light years away! You guys got a respectable sixth place in 2018.
Oh the drama and shock if NM don’t NQ.
Vasil would be on cloud nine—I can’t fathom the tears but I can imagine he might have a speech ready.
Go Ireland!
My qualifiers (random order): Cyprus, Malta, Ukraine, Lithuania, Russia, Romania, Croatia, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Sweden. I do have to say that I am really worried about Roxen. I really hope that she will qualify because we need a song with such an important message in the final. I think the first rehearsal is the reason why she is so low in the odds rn, giving the fact that the second rehearsal was actually really nice. She still needs to work on her vocals, but I’m sure she will be the biggest pleasant surprise of the semifinal, we all know her voice… Read more »
I still can’t believe they gave Belgium less chance to qualify than Israel, Azerbaijan and Romania. I love Roxen, she is in my top 6 this year, but objectively speaking televoters at home may fail to connect with her and it’s pretty clear juries won’t help her now. Israel and Azerbaijan are going to get overshadowed by rivals Malta, Cyprus and Croatia, so one of them (if not both) is not going to qualify. On the other hand Belgium will have the jury support and won’t get a terribile televoting score. I mean, Elliot was really terribile and he still… Read more »
I’ll answer this. Belgium is not a Eurovision point-friendly song. The vocal abilities are not enough for the jury (slovenia would be a more jury-friendly song) and it’s not exciting enough for televote. They also don’t have locked in neighbor votes, except a few from Netherlands. Israel and Azerbaijan won’t be overshadowed by the other countries, they will all get a lot of points because people can’t get enough of high energy female bops. You can have 10 of them in a semi and all 10 could qualify.
Belgium not being Eurovision friendly is exactly why it will be top 10 with the televoters. If I remember correctly Ireland and Albania were not Eurovision friendly in 2018, yet they smashed the voting and placed top 16 in the final. Sennek and Elliot scored 20 points without Netherlands and Germany helps with worse songs/performances, like I said. Also, Lithuania is voting, meaning Belgium starts with 30 points only from these three countries. You can add some other random points from other countries, so no chance they get less than 40 points from the televoting. Now, Ana has great vocals,… Read more »
You can’t compare Belgium points prior years to Belgium this year. It’s apples and oranges. Especially in this semi final. But I guess we’ll see on Tuesday!
I agree that they are different semi finals, however still I beleive SF1 in 2018 was more diverse and stronger than SF1 in 2021. But I get your point.
I think Azerbaijan is a clear qualifier. They are even in our top 50 viral on spotify in Norway on 26, in front of malta. I think Azerbaijan will get 8 or 10 points from Norway. And i guess as well from other countries. It’s just my guess, I will be really suprised if Azerbaijan dosen’t get through.
I love Roxen, and it looks like those who do are from countries in the semi 1. I guess those will be voting. I will vote for Romania too. I know she can do well in the semi.
Azerbaijan is high in Norway Spotify because of Efendi having this “love story” with Tix. Just that.
Roxen is great, but she gives me so much Srbuk vibes! She really looks like a NQ unfortunately 🙁 Hope I am wrong, Italy is going to give her 12 with the televoting no matter what.
It is what Ukraine does usually. Everytime they slowly come from mid-positions to top 10 with their staging. High respect to their creativiy and music.
Well deserved top 5 for me.
Although the song and the vocal technique is absolutely not my cup of tea, I am hoping Ukraine will go through. Its highly original and creative, and it really deserves a high ranking.
NEGATIVE-tested legend kateryna looks like nelly furtado in the header photo ! i’m so happy for ukraine i need them to keep their 100% qualification record
Just wanna remind everyone in 2018 betting odds got 7/8 qualifiers right and in 2019 8/9.
I believe two of Belgium/Ireland/Australia will qualify instead of Croatia/Azerbaijan/Romania.
I agree, but Azerbaijan is already out with the betting odds now. Belgium and one between Azerbaijan and Australia may qualify instead of Romania/Norway/Israel. I see Ireland as a borderline NQ, because Lesley’s live vocals are not good and she is heavily supported by backing vocalists.
The way people keep trashing Lesley’s vocals as if she’s a wailing banshee or a drunk Derry girl walking home at 3 in the morning—no wonder she’s probably quite ready to be done with this pantomime.
Lesley is among my favorites in the semi final (like 6th place) but she has objectively not good vocals for the song. She may be more suitable for songs with lower notes, her register can’t reach the high notes and that’s a fact, also the fact that she has to move so much doesn’t help at all. Nobody wants to trash her (at least not me). I would be glad if she qualifies, but you can’t state her vocals are good, because they simply aren’t. Efendi has a bland package ovarall for an upbeat song and she was also critisized… Read more »
We’ll have to wait and see how noticeable it will be.
Speaking of backings: I’m really scared of what that new rule concerning prerecorded vocals might do to our beloved ESC …
I hope this rule will be removed next year
Elevate it.
As long as it’s only backing vocals—I know it’s unpopular with fans but it’s the right decision.
I don’t get the appeal for Croatia
It was one of my favorites before the rehearsals and I wanted the staging to be somewhat identical to the music video but now it looks really cheap to me
Yeah not seeing that either tbh way too many quality songs missing out on qualification this year, over a lot of overrated stuff.
I didn’t like the music video, I liked the NF and I think the staging is great now.
Thank you! Finally someone is saying it!
You don’t get the appeal and that’s ok. What’s important is that majority of people get the appeal and think it looks elevated, not cheap.
I agree I think Croatia is a sure NQ
you mean a sure qualifier.
I personally like the Croatian song a lot and she’s one of the hottest performers in ESC. That being said her vocal abilities are lacking and the staging does not blow me away. I don’t think she gets a lot of jury points.
Malta should have been a safe NQ without all the propaganda and Sweden also if it was any other country.
I think you’ve mistaken Malta with Slovenia.
I know you’re a fan of Ana. But let’s face reality, her talent is wasted in Amen. Slovenia, Australia and NM are the safe NQ this year. I’d like to add Norway to that list but I have a feeling that it could qualify with the televote
Yeah cause people haven’t stated the same thing about you on previous articles lol
Even if I think that you’re a nice funny guy actually
You’re welcome. Amen is a powerful song, but I’m still not connecting with it. It’s too classic for me.
Where did you get what you’re smoking, Ellen? Share pls.
Are you trying to be funny ? Cause it doesn’t work actually.
Just wanted the good stuff.
Then you will wait honey cause I don’t take drugs. Unlike you, the only drug I’m consuming everyday is music and the love of my family and friends. Get yourself someone. Loneliness got your brain.
Vocally, Ana deserves the final. But her song…. That’s sad she has chosen to sing Amen.
Tusse didn’t sound bad to me on the snippets of his rehearsal. I think he could qualify but not land in the top 10 during the GF. He also needs to change his costume… or just bring back its sleeves.
She is such a hateful b…ch
Why do you hate Malta so much? Get lost
Yeah, that’s incredible! Malta isn’t the center of the attention anymore. France and Italy are the current favourites for the win yet she’s still focusing on Malta since March. The girl is litteraly obsessed with the ‘sure’ fail of Malta in the 1st semi.
Nah, no way. ‘Je me casse’ is a good song, tbh. It’s just not as good as all that campaigning wants us to believe.
I really can’t believe Ireland won’t qualify against some of the songs predicted to qualify in that semi.
Belgium and Ireland definitely need to be there.
I’m sorry but there is no way Sweden, Norway and Azerbaijan are better than those.
Ah but you know…politics lol
You think its politics? Israel now in a war so if its politics speaking Israel will not qualify.
Love Ireland and Belgium very much, hope they will qualify along with Israel.
Politics as in certain countries that are “in the club” being favoured over others.
Regarding Israel, I dunno how Eden will do. It’s both similar and different to other songs this year. I’m undecided on it really
Thank you!
my qualifiers: Belgium, Romania, Malta, Cyprus, Ireland, Russia, Ukraine, Lithuania, Croatia and Sweden. who do I think will qualify: Belgium, Malta, Cyprus, Russia, Ukraine, Lithuania, Croatia, Sweden, and then Norway, and then either Romania/Ireland… Slovenia, Australia (though I love the song), Macedonia, Azerbaijan, and also Israel are out imo. Azerbaijan and Israel are out because there is no way that 5 upbeat female bangers will qualify and these two have the weakest stagings and the songs are also not that good. Ireland, Romania and Norway are all on the fence and it will depend on their vocal and the overall… Read more »
hahaha sorry, love her vocals and her but the staging and the song are a bit too bland to qualify from the 2nd position 😉
Lol that is your opinion..Israel has amazing staging and style and one of the best vocalist female singer this year, Good luck to the beautiful Eden Alene.
Belgium gets my bet. They’re too distinctive and unique to stay in a semi filled with pop songs.
Hope you’re right, but your argument is invalid. Remember Malcolm Lincoln, Iriao and Conan Osiris …
I think the odds will be disproven about Belgium. It will qualify.
highest climbers in my opinion , are austalia, ireland and belgium. they were on the ‘maybe’ qualifying list and now they are now on the qualifying list. super proud of them !!
From this semifinal, there is only one country, I would put the qualification chance at almost zero and that is North Macedonia.
I can see some scenarios, where Ireland, Australia or even Slovenia (Jury pleaser!) qualify.
Especially Ireland is something, that will only come to life when you see the whole staging work its wonder.
Right now, there are 5 countries (Malta, Cyprus, Lithuania, Ukraine, Russia) that seem to be in a safe spot, but we’ll see…
I honestly think Israel, Azerbaijan and Croatia all somewhat cancel each other out, all pop female songs with dancers and upbeat. ., Belgium, Ireland and others for example bring something different… this is so hard to predict. I could see 3 or 4 surprises on the night
Oh no
It’s so sad seeing Romania entering NQ zone
I liked the staging concept and I think the vocals weren’t that bad
I’m really worried about her chances now 🙁
Nice seeing Norway and Sweden getting lower and lower percentages as time passes, let’s hope they enter the NQ zone (which will not happen but let’s have faith)
Ukraine, Belgium, Russia, Cyprus, Lithuania and Australia obviously deserved the extra percentage points, I want them all in the grand final
Russia and Ukraine are to awful, they cant go to the final.
Just vote for Mars or Neptune and calm down
I disagree. They’re both unique in their own way, have tons of character& ethnic vibes. Neither are in genres I usually like, but I’ll support both of them to get them into the final.
I love the diversity of Eurovision this year. Normally there’s very little for me as I like off-the-wall genres, but this year I’m very happy with the vast majority of the songs. They’re either simply my cup of tea or are if such high quality that you can’t dislike them.
Only 46% chance for Belgium! RIDICULOUS!!!
right? the song will stand out so much in the semi!
This is just the odds. They aren’t that accurate. Even if I agree with them for not betting on Belgium qualification. Despite her flawless singing skills, Geike really lacks charisma and her gaze is kinda scary — like Sennek. Hooverphonic should have kept Luka with them this year.
Who knows ? Luka could also have served the song as good as Geike is doing. But Luka had more charisma.
Just a matter of taste indeed.
I don’t get the word ’emulate’. What does that mean ?
Tbh, I think that it’s especially what makes me think Belgium shoudn’t qualify — only based on the snippets of the rehearsals. Geike performances are distant, she doesn’t really have a stage presence and doesn’t allow me to connect with The Wrong Place. I had the same matter with Sennek. And I have a feeling that Hooverphonic is gonna have the same result Sennek had…
I love both Ukraine and Russia from the start and I am so happy that they finally get the recognition that they deserve!
I loved Ukraine from the beginning too, Russia not so much. The song didn’t appeal to me at first but seeing that staging and her live performance it instantly became one of my top 5 faves. I love the cultural elements, from the dress to the background visuals!