Another day of rehearsals. Another day of upheavals in the Eurovision odds.
And today’s major winner is Bilal Hassani from France.
Following an acclaimed first rehearsal France has broken into the top ten of the odds.* The “Roi” hitmaker is in the blue at a spread of bookmakers which means his odds to win are shortening.
RedZone has France as low as 15/1.
Another country on the move is Australia. Kate Miller-Heidke’s rehearsal performances are moving the market. She’s now also inside the Top Ten, with odds as low as 16/1 at BetFair.
Rehearsal days have winners and they have casualties.
And unfortunately for Italy, Mahmood did not fair well from today’s rehearsals.
He’s now dropped out of the top three and is in the red at most bookmakers. That means his odds to win are drifting.
In fact Mahmood’s odds have gone as high as 11/1 SkyBet. This is likely a reaction to vocal and stage problems which received a mixed reaction in the press center.
Italy drifting in Eurovision 2019 odds to win
It is a bad day for Italy, but a good day for Sweden. Italy’s setback means Sweden is now inside the top three.
John Lundvik performed “Too Late For Love” in his second rehearsal and bookmakers have lapped it up. Sweden is in the blue across the board and as low as 5/1 at several major bookmakers.
The Netherlands and Russia continue to lead the market but neither has reversed the hit they took following their first rehearsals.
They remain in the red at many bookmakers and will hope to overturn that trend in their second rehearsals tomorrow.
Do you think the odds predict a winner? Is France on course to take the crown? Let us know in the comments below!
GET MORE EUROVISION 2019 ODDS NEWS HERE
Photo Credit: EBU
*Accurate Israeli time 21:52
Europe voted Conchita once, won’t vote a Conchita wannabe again. At least Conchita could really sing! Sorry not Sorry, Bilal.
i have to laugh
I see three likely outcomes here: Sweden claiming it’s 7th victory, Netherlands winning for the 5th time or someone unexpected swoops in.
All three likely scenarios. Question is what is more likely?
…and unexpected country winning. i don’t see sweden pleasing the public enough (good but nothing special), and the netherlands don’t seem to stand out either. we’ll have an interesting vote !
Odd interpretation of the facts. #FakeNews. Trump would have a field day with your delusions
Pure emotion and focus from North Macedonia’s Tamara
The odds means nothing, at least for me. I still think that my country (France may not end in the bottom). Even if I don’t like the song at all, I can say our HoD work a lot of the staging. It can helps. For Italy, I need the second rehearsals. I hope it’s not screwed for him but I don’t like many things of his staging. I gave my 2 cents of the staging of the big 5 and Israel in the poll article. For Sweden, for me it was always a contender.
Prefer to much more Italy than France! Bilal won’t win for sure… he’s arrogant and the song has nothing.
I am from France and I don’t see anything in our song for fair victory
He doesn’t come across as arrogant in the interviews I watched.
it’s because he’s not 😉
Sorry but he is becoming a strong contender for the victory. Not the best song, not the best singer BUT certainly one of the best show performer and genius for doing the buzz (fat and deaf girls. It’s pathetic on a side but also genius on the other side since it will work for sure. Same trick works every N years). But about arrogance I agree, also there is so sharpness in this guy (cf Youtube videos). He built its public character around this, his public goldmine. See This is the first time I see this kind of bad comment… Read more »
About the singer: You’re certainly right. Too marketing.
But what is the more pathetic: a guy crying, complaining in front of a webcam, or those watching him ?
That could be a good debate.
But it is a song contest and it’s a real potential winner now.
Hype is growing more and more. At the best time.
Very good strategy from France.
contender ??????
ofcourse not
this year….bookies create ”fake news-fake winners”…Guess why !
FranceEsc2018…can’t compare to FranceEsc2019. So I estimate 15th to 20th place…and gains for books !
Italy, France and Azerbaijan are the best for me
Next week Mahmood will feel better and he’ll win ????????????? Go Mahmood
HOW SWEDEN IS #3??!?! WHATS WRONG WITH ESC
Actually number 2. But you need not to worry. Sweden will not win.
Italy 2020 is cancelled!
Don’t be sure, Italy will surprise you…
It’s ok. Rai is not ready to do Eurovision.
It seems that the fifth victory for Netherlands (or maybe Swedish equalised Ireland’s seven-victories record) is the most likely situation. But France that night did a great job, especially for that powerful revamped instrumental music and his performance! He deserved top 10 like Amir in 2016! Good luck for every contestants!
Malta is overrated ( TOP 5 with juries,out of TOP 12 with televote).
I think fight for win between Sweden,Russia,Azerbaijan ,The Netherlands.
TOP 5 with juries NET,SWE,AZE,MAL,ISR
Dark horse Australia,France
Overrated? It’s different, current and fresh! Top 5 for me!
I’d say wait till you see the performance on TV!
Duncan please win and save us by this atrocity.
This is turning into a very interesting and exciting ESC year, in which anything could happen.
I AGREE WITH YOU.
What if an unexpected dark horse appears out of nowhere? Picture North Macedonia or something…
I can’t wait to see MALTA’s performance tomorrow!
Current standings in the odds:
1. Netherlands
2. Sweden
3. Russia
4. Azerbaijan
5. Italy
6. Malta
7. Switzerland
8. France
9. Australia
10. Iceland
However, greatest surprise for me is the fact that my country, North Macedonia, is currently ranked 13th in the odds. I have never been more exited about Eurovision before.
That’s lovely to read! Tamara’s doing a great job for North Macedonia and I’m definitely wishing you well for the Eurovision SF and your deserved place in the GF on 18 May 🙂
I have a strange feeling about North Macedonia…
France is pathetic. Trying to bring Conchita and Netta at once on stage.
Why so much hate towards the Greek entry, in the odds?
My prediction is that it’ll finish in the top 5 at jury voting and top 10 at televoting. It doesn’t deserve 12 place!!!
I agree with you DPG.
haha.
Odds is not hate, its what oddsmaker think people will vote on, but mostly how much money are betted on a song/country….the more money put on a song, the lower odds it get…so if u put a lot of money on Greece then it might get lower odds!
Cause Greece ia overrated bt y’all!
I’m getting it now when France was speaking of world premiere. Yes, a fat ballerina is a world premiere. Who would pay to go a ballet to see this atrocity. And who are the fools betting on this knowing this can’t compete against the classy art Sergey is showing.
Netta, Dana and Conchita are on the same staging… 😀
Bilal Hassani is not an excellent singer, song is quite bland IMHO and not a so good guy as french press want to convince us in France.
But this guy is a real show man. A Buzz Master. No doubt.
Dark Horse for sure
This eurovision is going to be very interesting ! Top 12 right now have equal possibilities to win in my point of view . Netherlands should have had more but their staging is not as expected as also Italy . Cyprus and Switzerland failed a bit with their vocals , Michela , Azerbaijan , Australia and France rised from their performances and still Greece remain as a dark horse that has the full package . Obviously, Iceland has a wide fun club and many people are going to vote for them . Finally Sweden according to current situation can win… Read more »
No one believed me a couple of weeks ago, when I said that Sweden is in for the win. Seems to me that I could be right after all.
Yes, Sweden is winning this. You can always count on the Swedes to bring stellar staging. And this year, the song is decent too. Winning.
Sweden is the only one that gives me goosebumps..
There must be some air flow coming from a window in your house.
Am I the only one wondering why Greece fell on the odds? Both song and performance are outstanding!!!!
Yes, you are.
It looks very theatrical and messy on stage. The jury will appreciate it because the song is great, but the televoters will likely prefer other songs. It’s a shame, because I think Katerine Duska is amazing!
Greece doesnt getting low because of disappointes . Just some ither countries are having sudden rise, 2 to be exact. France (ew) and Azerbaijan.
dis-a-POINT-(s). Nice unintentional pun.
The 2nd rehearsal clip itself was a little underwhelming. Which is strange considering the first one was so promising.
I don’t like the song that much and when I looked at tha clip the staging was not as good as expected. A little bit stiff and lack of charisma. I hope it will be better on the actual night.
I don’t understand the French song this year. Is that a good song by any means? Oh well… Apparently, it doesn’t matter anymore.
France could very well be a surprise winner. Roi isn’t much of a song, but they have the complete package.
France as a surprise winner?
Even though he did well today that is not going to happen, Roi as a song is just too weak.
Now I’m starting for the first time preferring the Netherlands to win.
I don’t really like him and its arrogance, and the song alone is not the best but I have to be honest:
Bilal is a real buzz maker.
Surprised by the staging and disappointed because he is still trying to check all the boxes (this guy is too strategic).
But it may work well for both jury and televote.
But this is exactly what France needs : strategic show man. France probably wants Patricia Kaas and Madame Monsieur dressed in black, on a black background, singing and crying : Merci Mercy, Merci Mercy, Merci Mercy until they drop.
Up till yesterday, Michela was the only female in the top 10. However, she remains the only female in top 8! Rooting for her and Malta this year!!
Malta could be a surprise winner! They just have to nail it live. The studio version of the song is good enough to win!
In most markets. Kate has overtaken Hatari into the top 8. I’d much rather her win than Michaela.
i like France and Bilal,but Mamhood can still return up on the odds. Hope never dies.
Mark my words! Italy won’t will even if Mahmood gives a flawless performance when it matters. For reasons that have nothing to do with the staging, the song or the performance.
If Italy couldn’t win with the masterpiece from 2018 or with succesful and talented Il Volo, there is just no way they are going to win with Soldi, even though the song is great. The juries have a dislike of Italian music, unfortunately. I honestly think it would be better for Italy to not win the contest because then they would have to host this circus. (Don’t get me wrong, I love Esc but it is just a slapstick version of Sanremo)
Does anyone else think the Netherlands are still really short odds? Don’t get me wrong, it is a nice song, and you could make an argument for it being the best song, but is it so much better than the others? Personally I think it is a much more open race, but the bookies seldom get it wrong – so does anyone know why it is so far in front of everyone else?
I still don’t get it actually
To my ears NLs sits in a bunch of really strong songs and not miles ahead in any way
But certain factors put pressure on people to like a song , like certain reviews , money , betting odds , so maybe the hype train is what has caused NLs to be so short further.
Modern, simple and evokes emotions? It’s not a favourite of mine but I think that is one of the reasons. And Duncan sells it pretty well on stage. Also hype can really make something sound and look a alot better than it really is. People get brain-washed with statistics and so on. I think something is missing with the performance though once in ESC. (Sweden on the other hand probobly is one of the countries where the performance itself is better than the Netherlands. So I can’t see a secure win.)
Netherlands and Russia and Sweden are safe bets because they are commercial songs that will appeal to lots of people. They are also performed by solid singers. People bet on what’s safe. In my opinion, Iceland is far more likely to win the televote than the Netherlands – but it’s much more risky to place a bet on such a divisive entry.
Bookies lose much more money when the favourites win. As a result, they usually keep the favourite odds almost artificially lower. Is the Netherlands the best song this year? Possibly. Is it twice as good as everything else? Definitely not. But remember, it’s about money, not about artistic assessment of the songs. 😉
To be honest Sweden was third before the Italian rehearsal
I can confirm this, as I checked the odds before the big five began rehearsing. The bump Sweden gained today was due to their amazing second rehearsal, not neccesarily due to Italy performing poorly.
I mean isn’t Mahmood ill, so no wonder his voice might not be right, and he probably fell in the odds, but I’m sorry as much as France has a great singer, who performs well, I just don’t feel France this year compared to last year, and especially 2016. He may do well, but I don’t know he doesn’t wow me like the other French acts. but good luck to him.
Mahmood’s voice is one thing, but the main criticism (at least from the livestream people) was that the staging is messy and sometimes cheesy. Being healthy will not help that. Let’s hope further changes will.
It was his first rehearsal, messiness was there for all acts except for Sweden maybe.
He had his toour around Italy these days, you can find videos on Youtube, where he was singing at top the whole album + two singles. Now he is afraid to sing Soldi on stage? Please.
Last week I went to his Italian tour in Naples and his vocals were very good. I’ve uploaded some videos, he also sang (or sung?) an arabic song. If you want to check my channel is “Marquise de Tassony”. It’s a little tricky to share links here in the comments, if someone knows the name of that song please tell me 🙂