Forget the bookies and the blogs. If you want to know who will win Eurovision, then consult viewers in Slovakia, Montenegro and Hungary.
I recently watched every Eurovision voting segment from 2000 until 2013 and tallied the points that each country awarded the eventual winner. I watched the Israelis give 12 points to the Olsen Brothers in 2000. And I saw the French give Emmelie de Forest douze points in 2013.
In the table below you can see the average points that each country gave to the winner. The countries that are not in bold have withdrawn from Eurovision. The others are still competing.
Slovakia—land of the TWiiNS—tops the table. They have given the winner an average of 10.25 points. The only year they got it really wrong was in 2011. They didn’t give Azerbaijan’s Ell & Nikki any love. Montenegro, Hungary, Germany and Sweden round out the Top 5. Each averaged more than 9 points for the winner. On the opposite end of the chart we have Monaco, San Marino, Italy and Armenia. Italy gave Emmelie de Forest 12 points in 2013. But it snubbed both Loreen and Ell & Nikki in 2012 and 2011. Mamma Mia!
In summary, you want to hear 8, 10, or 12 points called out by Austria, Belgium, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Israel, Lithuania, Montenegro, Netherland, Norway, Serbia, Slovenia or Sweden. They have a habit of awarding the winner. If Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Italy, Portugal or San Marino snub you, don’t worry. This is actually a good sign!
You can check out the average points chart below, followed by a complete voting chart from 2000 to 2013.
AVERAGE POINTS AWARDED TO THE WINNER:
| Contestant (NL): | Points: | Contestant (GB): |
| Slowakije | 10,25 | Slovakia |
| Montenegro | 9,40 | Montenegro |
| Hongarije | 9,38 | Hungary |
| Duitsland | 9,31 | Germany |
| Zweden | 8,77 | Sweden |
| Oostenrijk | 8,56 | Austria |
| Nederland | 8,54 | Netherlands |
| België | 8,46 | Belgium |
| Finland | 8,45 | Finland |
| Litouwen | 8,42 | Lithuania |
| Servië | 8,33 | Serbia |
| Estland | 8,31 | Estonia |
| Slovenië | 8,31 | Slovenia |
| Noorwegen | 8,25 | Norway |
| Israël | 8,14 | Israel |
| IJsland | 8,08 | Iceland |
| Polen | 8,00 | Poland |
| Rusland | 7,92 | Russia |
| Letland | 7,92 | Latvia |
| Spanje | 7,79 | Spain |
| Ver. Koninkrijk | 7,57 | United Kingdom |
| Bosnië en H. | 7,50 | Bosnia and H. |
| Malta | 7,43 | Malta |
| Griekenland | 7,42 | Greece |
| Frankrijk | 7,21 | France |
| Turkije | 7,17 | Turkey |
| Cyprus | 7,00 | Cyprus |
| Ierland | 6,92 | Ireland |
| Denemarken | 6,91 | Denmark |
| Kroatië | 6,86 | Croatia |
| Macedonië | 6,67 | Macedonia |
| Oekraïne | 6,50 | Ukraine |
| Andorra | 6,50 | Andorra |
| Zwitserland | 6,33 | Switzerland |
| Roemenië | 6,23 | Romania |
| Moldavië | 6,22 | Moldova |
| Georgië | 6,17 | Georgia |
| Wit-Rusland | 6,10 | Belarus |
| Tsjechië | 6,00 | Czech Republic |
| Azerbeidzjan | 5,80 | Azerbaijan |
| Albanië | 5,50 | Albania |
| Portugal | 5,00 | Portugal |
| Bulgarije | 4,89 | Bulgaria |
| Armenië | 4,43 | Armenia |
| Italië | 4,00 | Italy |
| San Marino | 3,25 | San Marino |
| Monaco | 2,00 | Monaco |
COMPLETE VOTING CHART 2000 TO 2013
Mike Bos contributed this report from the Netherlands. You can keep up with the latest Eurovision news and gossip by following the team from wiwibloggs.com on Twitter @wiwibloggs and by liking our Facebook page.
Actually, I also think this is not a good statistics .. bceause our country (Slovakia) was participating in ESC too few years to be invoked into the chart … and only one year we had a good representance wich was Kristína – Horehronie :))
Great piece 🙂 small point though, didn’t Lena win in 2010 not 2011?!
Ah, when statistics and Eurovision clash. A wet dream for an epidemiologist like me! On one hand, I want to roll my eyes at Julian’s point, but on the other hand, he is 100% right in my opinion! It’s a good catch! But nevertheless something we can keep an eye on in the upcoming years!
The average points of 2 of the 3 top countries – Montenegro and Slovakia – and of all bottom 4 – Italy, Monaco, San Marino, Armenia – are not actually statistically meaningful because they participated too few years to make of those averages a reliable trend.
Well you still read it, Dhani. Thank you for this, Mike!!
the one who made this was really bored
great article. i’ll pay extra attention to how slovakia vote this year.
That’s freaking crazy & really cool. Great effort. Looking forward to seeing if this trend will continue now! :O & what we might expect in the next voting.
What a great little article. Lots of effort – good job!
Not surprised to see the countries down at the bottom – they’re the ones who usually favour voting for their neighbours!
Thanks guys for posting this. Actually my last name is Bos, but maybe in English Boss is better 😀