Eurovision week is finally here! Ahead of tonight’s first semi-final, here is the final odds update from Smarkets following last night’s jury show.
All betting odds, or prices, can be converted into an implied chance (%) of something happening and this is how we convey odds (for example 3/1 = 25% implied probability).
Eurovision 2021: Semi-Final 1 odds to qualify
According to the latest prices on our market, there are five pretty safe qualifiers in this semi-final, with Malta at 98%, Lithuania and Cyprus both at 97%, Ukraine at 95% and Russia at 91%. It certainly seems highly likely that all four of these entries will make it to Saturday’s final.
This group is followed by two other likely qualifiers in Sweden (84%) and Croatia (80%). Croatia’s chance has notably increased by 17 percentage points since their second rehearsal, at the expense of some of the other female-led pop numbers in this semi-final.
Next in the market is Norway at 74%, suggesting that TIX is leaning towards qualification, followed by four countries who could go either way: Azerbaijan (60%), Belgium (50%), Romania (48%) and Israel (44%). Romania and Israel have seen their prices falling since last night’s jury show, down 10 and 13 percentage points, respectively.
At the bottom of the market is one entry leaning towards non-qualification (Australia at 29%) followed by three likely-non qualifiers in Ireland (22%) Slovenia (16%) and North Macedonia (14%).
Despite falling in the Eurovision outright winner market, Malta is still the clear favourite to win this semi-final, at a 59% chance. Cyprus has climbed up to second place at 20%, with Ukraine rounding out the top three at 13%.
There’s barely anything separating the top three of our Semi-Final 1 televote winner market, with Malta (24%) narrowly ahead of Cyprus (19%) and Ukraine (16%). Out of those three, Ukraine looks like it could be a decent value pick, with high scores likely from Azerbaijan, Italy and Russia at the very minimum.
Malta are once again the leaders in the jury winner odds, sitting pretty comfortably at a 56% chance. Cyprus and Ukraine miss out on the top three in this market, with Sweden in second place at 15% and Belgium’s Hooverphonic in third at 5%. Belgium will likely need a decent jury tally to take them through tonight, but these odds certainly seem to suggest ‘The Wrong Place’ made an impression on the juries yesterday.
Looks like im the only one who does not like Malta!
1. It won’t be fair if Malta wins the jury vote since she wasn’t good yesterday.. she was very loud and her vocals weren’t on point.. that squiky scream at the end made my ears bleed.. and as I learned from my music solo lessons: singing is not screaming! When people want to show off, they usually fall out of tune.. 2. I want to see Belgium in the final. So classy, elegant and on point. 3. I appreciate Russia and Ukraine. These are my biggest growers, especially since the rehearsals begun. Love the message and their energy. 4. I… Read more »
Simon Cowell, Cascada, Emmelie de Forest, has totally different opinion then yours about the potential winner Destiny (Malta). If you had ear problems make an ENT check up. Lets enjoy all the songs without hidden agenda, and may the best song win.
Don’t like the Malta song overrated
I don’t get people saying if this song qualifies other won’t… ridiculous. People vote for songs not if there’s too many of same beat or running order. I feel like the whole second half could go through, why not? Azerbaijan and Croatia have nothing in common besides being two upbeat songs, why y’all comparing them? Croatia is going to the Finals 100%. Azerbijan I’m sure too.
Why are you assuming Belgium will need a huge push from the juries to qualify?! The public top 10 won’t be full of dancing divas, some of them will flop…
But it can be the opposite too. I remember how low in 2017 the juries ranked Finland which was with a similar vibe.
So many good songs this year, I want everyone to qualify!
I’d say there are 5 sure qualifiers: Cyprus, Malta, Lithuania, Russia and Ukraine. Sweden is pretty much in too. Who’s qualifying next? Well, that’s when my doubts start. Norway is memorable and while, it has its haters, it has its fans too. Romania and Azerbaijan were both in my previous list but now I’m not that sure about them. I’d say Romania is in too, and the way I see it, Azerbaijan will struggle against Croatia. So one of them will qualify the other will not. I pick Azerbaijan because it is a household and will receive some love from… Read more »
My personal top, of course, is different.
So happy to see Belgium finally inside the top10! (Romania is out but that’s a sacrifice I’m obliged to make)
I’ve also got mixed feelings for Croatia still in and only disappointment for Sweden and Norway
Hopefully Sweden and Norway won’t qualify. We need some of the quality songs in the grand final!!
And hopefullly we get more decent people on here who does not hope for countries to not qualify, or who gloads in thier potential non qualifying. But I have little hope for that,,
It’s just my opinion that there are better songs in this semi that deserve the spot in the Grand Final. The “Fallen Angel” and “Million voices” are ok songs but they needed better stagings to make them more memorable. I don’t see anything wrong here. If I talked in a bad way about specific countries and the artists, that’d be problematic.
So Russia and Ukraine are NQ
He said quality, not soulless 😉
I now…
Russia and Ukraine are certainly more unique and memorable this year!
Curiously, in the years 2012-2019 not once were the bookies 100% correct when it comes to the qualifiers. The current average is 8.43 accurately predicted finalists per semi. 19’ SF1: 8/10 (BLR, SMR) SF2: 9/10 (ALB) 18’ SF1: 7/10 (FIN, ALB, IRE) SF2: 8/10 (SLV, SER) 17’ SF1: 9/10 (POL) SF2: 9/10 (NOR) 16’ SF1: 9/10 (AUT) SF2: 9/10 (GEO) 15’ SF1: 9/10 (SER) SF2: 9/10 (MON) 14’ SF1: 8/10 (SMR, ICE) SF2: 8/10 (SLV, BLR) 13’ SF1: 8/10 (BLG, LIT) SF2: 7/10 (ARM, ROM, HUN) 12’ SF1: 9/10 (HUN) SF2: 9/10 (MAL) The most unexpected qualifier: Ireland 2018 (16th)… Read more »
Honestly I wouldn’t be so sure about Sweden qualifying. I think that is very propable that they could be a shock NQ just like Norway.
I m not sure about Malta winning the televote to be honest judging by our past track record in televoting. I think we re in for a surprise and Ukraine or possibly Lithuania will win the televote. Personally I will be voting for Ireland ?
Aw thanks Mich
Do you mean you want people who bet to lose money? Because I don’t think the bookmakers are losing any money either way. If this prediction is wrong, people who bet on entries with low odds will win a lot of money, but there are more people who bet money on entries with high odds, so it evens out. The system is set so the bookmakers always win.
Russia, Ukraine, Cyprus and Malta are locks. Probably Lithuania too.
After that it’s anyone’s game with about 10 countries fighting for 5 spots.
I see chances for Australia, Belgium, Ireland, Romania, Israel, Croatia.
Personally don’t think Sweden, Norway and Azerbaijan should qualify, average songs, relying on cheap tricks and popularity tactics to polish it up, but it’s very rare that my opinion and the opinion of ESC voters align so I fully expect those 3 to qualify regardless.
I want Ireland… Q.Q
My qualifiers are pretty much the same as the top 10 here, except I’ve swapped Croatia for Romania. I think if Roxen nails it, the performance is going to be really creative and interesting.
Unpopular opinion : in a year where only 33 countries are competing through the SFs, there shouldn’t be 20 places in the final but only 16. So only 8 qualifiers for each SF.
A grand final with 22 songs would be good, sometimes 26 songs is just too much and we get tired and bored and some songs get lost in the grand final due to that overload.
Tired and bored? Of Eurovision? Honey, no.
Or we could address the elephant in the room and make the Big5 also compete in the Semi-Finals.
I would also be okay with the top 5 qualifying automatically but big makes no sense and is not fair…
France and Italy are always the strongest big 5. I think they’d have strong qualification records if they had to participate in the semis.
UK and Spain would probably always DQ and Germany sometimes would qualify and sometimes not.
But I agree, only the host country should be pre-qualified. Big 5 status is completely unfair.
I’m not saying this because I am Italian, but I strongly believe that Italy doesn’t need to skip the semi final. It would have always been a qualifier since 2011, literally always and only 2014 a borderline qualifier. I genuinely think like that and I don’t even like some Italian entries at all.
No it’s true.
Honestly think they will win in the coming years (including this one)
As it is unfair for us to paid a lot more than the other countries. You all have a point but it wouldn’t be fair either to put all the money and then get stuck in the SF. I set up a party and pay for it but I’m not invited? Well…
It may be a way to force them to put more effort in their entries though.
Finally someone that’s not me is saying this!
This will be so exciting. Lithuania, Russia, Malta, Ukraine and Cyprus seem to be the definite qualifiers, but you never know, especially with Cyprus, considering Tamta also barely made it to the final in a much weaker semi final imo. As for the other 5: I can see Croatia qualifying. Azerbaijan also increased their chances after yesterday’s performance. As for the remaining three, I have no idea. I know that a lot of people still see Sweden as a qualifier, but idk, I just can’t imagine much televote support for them and don’t really know if the jury votes will… Read more »
Interesting. Does Hadise live in Belgium or has any other connection to the country?
Yes, she was born in Belgium and also grew up there.
As we’ve seen in The Voice of Turkey, she still speaks perfect Dutch and her French is also really good.
Back in 2016, she was also a guest in Belgium’s national selection.
So, yeah, she has some strong connections to the country. 🙂
Oh, I had no idea! I live in Belgium but I didn’t realize she was born here! Great to here that, it would be nice to see her representing Belgium!
I believe Turkey has said they won’t return until LGBT contestants are banned (citing Conchita), and they also want the juries to be removed from the scoring system.
It still freaks me out Turkey is complaining about the juries. I mean … even though the influence of the Turkish diaspora’s votes has been weakened, Can Bonomo still finished 7th with his terrible and annoying song.
That only proved Turkey could send anything and score a guaranteed Top 10 result.
Turkey done quite well in ESC though only one NQ and countless Top 10 placings. But we all know the jury/voting system was just Erdogan’s excuse. It was too gay and secular for the Turkey that he wants.
Right. At least they were very quick to use Conchita’s victory as another reason for their absence although they had already quit earlier.
It’s really telling when it comes to Erdogan. Present-day Turkey seems to be lightyears away from its own past entries like Athena.
Only the government, most turks I’ve met don’t have any problem with secularism and LGBT at all
Tbh I could see all of them qualifying for various reasons, I don’t think there are 100% non-qualifiers here. Such a hard semi!
Even North Macedonia?
I’ll copy-paste my comment from the previous article (since I think it’s more relevant here): My personal qualifiers are Norway, Belgium, Sweden, Russia, Ukraine, Lithuania, Cyprus, Malta, Romania and Azerbaijan. I’ve honestly always thought that Israel and Croatia were overrated, but I do definitely get the appeal. Azerbaijan is a sort-of guilty pleasure, I think it’s enjoyable, but I’ll fully admit that it’s not a very creative or inventive song by any means, and people aren’t being unfair when they call it lazy. But the thing about music clichés is, they’re usually clichés for a reason. We love them. If… Read more »
If North Macedonia won the jury vote in 2019 then I could definitely see Belgium or Slovenia win the jury vote in this semi. It will most likely still be Malta though. Let’s just hope not Sweden again…
Hahahha Macedonia and Tamara vs boring Slovenia and Belgium..YOU ARE CRAZY
Would be a remarkable play by juries and televoters.
At least he doesn’t have self-love amnesia. If no one else is fighting for you, be your own champion—that’s Vasil.
At this point in 2019 before semi final 1
Qualified :
San marino – 17%
Belarus-41%
Cyprus-91%(almost didn’t)
Didn’t :
Hungary-81%
Portugal – 52%
So don’t take it for granted
So true
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That’s the best one – saved it for you 😉
Yes, enjoy the show without betting at all!
I’m a little surprised Australia went down and by that much. I’m not saying it should have shot up to 100% qualification chance or anything but the performance seemed to go pretty well. Apparently the staging, vocals, effects were all good and they didn’t encounter any problems. I thought their chance would have either rose slightly or at least stayed the same rather then dropping so much.
I’m a bit tired of the remark that Begium needs a lot of jury points to reach the final.
Just as if the Eurovision viewer cannot appreciate real good music themselves…
I know, me, too.
once again, ‘real good music’ isn’t a thing. everything about music is objective: there will be one person who thinks the wrong place is the best thing they have ever heard, and there will be another who thinks it is the worst garbage they have ever listened to. I myself don’t adore The Wrong Place, but that doesn’t mean I can’t appreciate ‘good music’, or at least music that I consider good.
I respectfully disagree with this, but it’s just my way to see things. Everybody has his own way and the most important thing is to respect other people’s opinions.
I think Belgium will be in Top 10 televoting as well, maybe around 7th or 8th place.
Exactly, there’s also a lot of ‘crazy’ and pop going on in this semi. There’s nothing as high-end as Belgium. People at home love the crazy and over the top acts but there are also televoters that tend to lean to the simpler acts more.
There have been so many quality entries through the years that have done well, including most of the winners. I dunno why the public’s music tastes are always questioned.
About juries/televoters. I think either Russia or Ukraine will win the public vote and Malta will likely win the juries, but I don’t rule out a surprising win by the great Hoovoerhonic with the juries.
Overall, I feel like Malta is much more likely winner of the semi than everyone else.
We’ll see. In my opinion The Roop has not a great song this year, but they will get a very good score with both public and juries
Can someone explain me why Israel dropped si much after the first dress rehearsal yesterday? Is this linked to a meh vocal performance by Eden or politica reasons?
She was off-key on several parts and in the end, too. You can read about all the performances on ESC Daily. Some others were like this, too.
I followed it, but I did not notizie. Thank you for the info 🙂