Eurovision week is finally here! Ahead of tonight’s first semi-final, here is the final odds update from Smarkets following last night’s jury show.
All betting odds, or prices, can be converted into an implied chance (%) of something happening and this is how we convey odds (for example 3/1 = 25% implied probability).
According to the latest prices on our market, there are five pretty safe qualifiers in this semi-final, with Malta at 98%, Lithuania and Cyprus both at 97%, Ukraine at 95% and Russia at 91%. It certainly seems highly likely that all four of these entries will make it to Saturday’s final.
This group is followed by two other likely qualifiers in Sweden (84%) and Croatia (80%). Croatia’s chance has notably increased by 17 percentage points since their second rehearsal, at the expense of some of the other female-led pop numbers in this semi-final.
Next in the market is Norway at 74%, suggesting that TIX is leaning towards qualification, followed by four countries who could go either way: Azerbaijan (60%), Belgium (50%), Romania (48%) and Israel (44%). Romania and Israel have seen their prices falling since last night’s jury show, down 10 and 13 percentage points, respectively.
At the bottom of the market is one entry leaning towards non-qualification (Australia at 29%) followed by three likely-non qualifiers in Ireland (22%) Slovenia (16%) and North Macedonia (14%).
Despite falling in the Eurovision outright winner market, Malta is still the clear favourite to win this semi-final, at a 59% chance. Cyprus has climbed up to second place at 20%, with Ukraine rounding out the top three at 13%.
There’s barely anything separating the top three of our Semi-Final 1 televote winner market, with Malta (24%) narrowly ahead of Cyprus (19%) and Ukraine (16%). Out of those three, Ukraine looks like it could be a decent value pick, with high scores likely from Azerbaijan, Italy and Russia at the very minimum.
Malta are once again the leaders in the jury winner odds, sitting pretty comfortably at a 56% chance. Cyprus and Ukraine miss out on the top three in this market, with Sweden in second place at 15% and Belgium’s Hooverphonic in third at 5%. Belgium will likely need a decent jury tally to take them through tonight, but these odds certainly seem to suggest ‘The Wrong Place’ made an impression on the juries yesterday.